Canadian Election 2019
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Author Topic: Canadian Election 2019  (Read 189095 times)
kcguy
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« Reply #1525 on: October 21, 2019, 07:47:00 PM »

Acadie-Bathurst called for Libs, so much about the  hype there. Three flips so far: St. johns East, Tobique-Mactaquac, and NB Southwest.

Anyone want to make some bad nationwide predictions based off these first results?

Judging by Central Nova (Liberal), Sackville-Preston-Chezzetcook (Liberal), Acadie-Bathurst (Liberal) and Tobique-Mactaquac (Conservative), my best guess is that LIB+NDP>170, but LIB<170.

Assuming you can predict a election based on only these 4 seats.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1526 on: October 21, 2019, 07:47:13 PM »

Wow. Libs take the lead in Sydney-Victoria. Now lead in 26 seats. I think that would be a pretty good result for them. Also a good result for a newly minted Canadian election expert on this site.
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super6646
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« Reply #1527 on: October 21, 2019, 07:47:55 PM »

Not a good start for the cons at all.

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ajc0918
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« Reply #1528 on: October 21, 2019, 07:50:52 PM »

The LPC has lost so much vote share so far but still seems to be doing fairly well. Am I missing something?
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #1529 on: October 21, 2019, 07:51:08 PM »

This is looking better than expected for libs, but not absurdly so. I'm thinking mid 140's for libs, mid 110's for cons, others stagnant

PS- where are yall getting seat flip results?
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Storr
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« Reply #1530 on: October 21, 2019, 07:52:13 PM »

Another NB flip, Fundy Royal called for CON.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1531 on: October 21, 2019, 07:52:21 PM »

This is looking better than expected for libs, but not absurdly so. I'm thinking mid 140's for libs, mid 110's for cons, others stagnant

PS- where are yall getting seat flip results?
I'm just comparing between these two maps.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6023150/live-canada-election-results-2019-real-time-results-in-the-federal-election/

https://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/results-2015/
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politicallefty
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« Reply #1532 on: October 21, 2019, 07:52:40 PM »

This is looking better than expected for libs, but not absurdly so. I'm thinking mid 140's for libs, mid 110's for cons, others stagnant

PS- where are yall getting seat flip results?

It's pretty easy to figure out for Atlantic Canada since the Liberals swept everything in 2015.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1533 on: October 21, 2019, 07:55:11 PM »

The LPC has lost so much vote share so far but still seems to be doing fairly well. Am I missing something?

It seems like the Cons are racking up votes in their NB flips (+7000 votes in Tobique and NB SW) but a little to a moderate amount behind in many NS and PEI ridings.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #1534 on: October 21, 2019, 07:56:37 PM »

Greens win Beauséjour per CBC.
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Don Vito Corleone
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« Reply #1535 on: October 21, 2019, 07:57:37 PM »

Still early obviously but this isn't a good result for the Conservatives at all.
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Continential
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« Reply #1536 on: October 21, 2019, 07:58:03 PM »

What’s with the Archie McKinnon guy getting 15% in Sydney-Victoria?
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super6646
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« Reply #1537 on: October 21, 2019, 07:58:25 PM »


Global had Libs winning it...

Oof
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ajc0918
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« Reply #1538 on: October 21, 2019, 07:58:31 PM »

Greens appear to have swiped a potential seat from the Cons in Beauséjour. Libs lucked out there.

Edit: from Cons meaning they nearly won it. It's a flip from Libs.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1539 on: October 21, 2019, 07:59:11 PM »

Beausejour has to be a data entry error...correct?
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ajc0918
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« Reply #1540 on: October 21, 2019, 08:00:46 PM »

Greens appear to have swiped a potential seat from the Cons in Beauséjour. Libs lucked out there.
That's been a Liberal riding since 2000.  That is a big ass upset if it continues.

Oh my bad. I flipped the colors. Yeah you're right.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1541 on: October 21, 2019, 08:01:44 PM »

Greens appear to have swiped a potential seat from the Cons in Beauséjour. Libs lucked out there.
That's been a Liberal riding since 2000.  That is a big ass upset if it continues.

It's a mistake - check the Elections Canada figures. Dominic LeBlanc (Liberal) is winning there, like usual. CBC's computer must have had a problem, as it declared that seat pretty early for him and now has changed.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #1542 on: October 21, 2019, 08:01:52 PM »

Either Beauséjour is a data error, or the Conservatives really missed the mark; they're currently at just 16.1% there.
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Don Vito Corleone
bruhgmger2
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« Reply #1543 on: October 21, 2019, 08:02:57 PM »

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adma
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« Reply #1544 on: October 21, 2019, 08:03:04 PM »

It's Fredericton, not Beausejour.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #1545 on: October 21, 2019, 08:03:26 PM »

Greens appear to have swiped a potential seat from the Cons in Beauséjour. Libs lucked out there.
That's been a Liberal riding since 2000.  That is a big ass upset if it continues.

It's a mistake - check the Elections Canada figures. Dominic LeBlanc (Liberal) is winning there, like usual. CBC's computer must have had a problem, as it declared that seat pretty early for him and now has changed.

Thanks.

CApoli newbie question but which of NDP or Greens are more likely to cooperate with the Libs?
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KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸
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« Reply #1546 on: October 21, 2019, 08:04:56 PM »

To be honest, I don't think the Liberals are going to do as good as the others in this thread think. Atlantic Canada, which is typically titanium L, is showing to be a mural of not only red, but also blue, and a little green and orange. If this is how they're doing in THEIR territory, may God help them as this night goes on.

Although to be honest, the night is still very young, and anything can truly happen. Tongue
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1547 on: October 21, 2019, 08:05:33 PM »

Greens appear to have swiped a potential seat from the Cons in Beauséjour. Libs lucked out there.
That's been a Liberal riding since 2000.  That is a big ass upset if it continues.

It's a mistake - check the Elections Canada figures. Dominic LeBlanc (Liberal) is winning there, like usual. CBC's computer must have had a problem, as it declared that seat pretty early for him and now has changed.

Thanks.

CApoli newbie question but which of NDP or Greens more likely to cooperate with the Libs?

Since the Greens have only had MPs elected since 2011 that's a little difficult to say, but given that they're only going to elect a few members while the NDP will elect many more, I'd say that it only really makes sense for the Liberals to cooperate with the NDP: that will probably get them over 170, while the Liberals & Greens almost certainly won't.
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Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
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« Reply #1548 on: October 21, 2019, 08:05:49 PM »

Greens appear to have swiped a potential seat from the Cons in Beauséjour. Libs lucked out there.
That's been a Liberal riding since 2000.  That is a big ass upset if it continues.

It's a mistake - check the Elections Canada figures. Dominic LeBlanc (Liberal) is winning there, like usual. CBC's computer must have had a problem, as it declared that seat pretty early for him and now has changed.

Thanks.

CApoli newbie question but which of NDP or Greens more likely to cooperate with the Libs?

NDP is almost certain to be part of the liberal coalition regardless, while greens have said that neither party goes far enough on the environment. If necessary to prevent a con government though, they might join their coalition.  
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morgieb
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« Reply #1549 on: October 21, 2019, 08:08:36 PM »

To be honest, I don't think the Liberals are going to do as good as the others in this thread think. Atlantic Canada, which is typically titanium L, is showing to be a mural of not only red, but also blue, and a little green and orange. If this is how they're doing in THEIR territory, may God help them as this night goes on.

Although to be honest, the night is still very young, and anything can truly happen. Tongue
Most of the seats that flipped are basically Safe Tory, it's not a massive concern for the Grits. West Nova an exception though - anyone know what's happening there?
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