Canadian Election 2019

[beesley]

Now that the Federal Election is the next big thing, there are a sizeable number of Liberals who haven't yet announced their re-election. There's a few like Yves Robillard and John McKay who are older and would be no surprise, but there are some which were unexpected. A few like Marwan Tabbara have a lot to worry about, but others like Ralph Goodale, Amarjeet Sohi, and Anju Dhillon have not announced yet.

[beesley]

Here are some seats I believe the Greens can win on a good night:

Saanich-Gulf Islands (obviously)
Victoria (their top target and a seat which includes Andrew Weaver's district)
Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke (another Vancouver Island battleground, where former Liberal David Merner is running as a Green)
Nanaimo-Ladysmith (the by-election isn't long after the PEI Election and Paul Manly is running for the Greens)

And if that surge really happens:

Fredericton (David Coon's seat is here and they came third last time)
Guelph (student seat where Mike Schreiner won)
Cowichan-Malahat-Langford (getting the effects of the Victoria area surge, this also contains the area represented by Sonia Furstenau, however it's likely the best seat for the NDP wholly on the island)
West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea To Sky Country (the best named riding anywhere, the Sunshine Coast area has a Green tinge, but this only goes in a Liberal collapse)
Charlottetown (residual from provincial election)
Malpeque (same as Charlottetown)

I think they will definitely take Victoria and Saanich and are in a good position in the other two (of which Nanaimo is the better shot), but I don't see them taking anywhere else. In Fredericton they could play spoiler and allow the CPC to oust Matt Decourcey, considering the CPC are taking at least three other NB seats.

[beesley]

What's the possibility of a Green surge if they win PEI in two weeks? In my opinion I think with the inept leadership of the NDP they could be tied or within 1-2% of each other if that occurs.

I mean, it wouldn't be impossible to see a local boom in PEI, but I highly doubt your average Canadian will even be aware that PEI has had an election, let alone change their vote.

Yup. It's important to remember that PEI is teeny tiny, only about 150k people. Non political junkies wouldn't notice.

The Greens have seemed to turn their attention to Atlantic Canada, I could see if the Greens win PEI that could translate into a surge in the 4 riding's there, enough to win a couple? perhaps, IF there is a big swing from LPC->GRN since the Liberals own the island federally.
Look at the candidates in the Halifax ares, the Greens are going to heavily focus here:
- Jo-Ann Roberts (who was a strong second in Victoria) is running in Halifax
- Lil MacPherson (former mayoral candidate) running in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour
- Richard Zurawski (HRM Councillor) running in Halifax West

Halifax in particular will be a three-way fight between the progressives; I'd say Dartmouth-Cole Harbour is now a LPC/GRN contest and Halifax West in another three-way race between LPC/CONs/GRN

Victoria is safer for the NDP without a star green candidate, but I expect the Greens to still come in second there

Perhaps, but in the Atlantics provincial Liberal voters are often Conservatives (Egmont area ridings on PEI) and vice versa (Cape Breton ridings in NS.) In Vancouver Island, climate change is also a far bigger issue than in the rest of Canada. Indigenous issues seem to matter here too. Victoria has also lost its attractive NDP candidate, but now has a Green indigenous candidate. I also think the Grits will sweep Halifax.

If you're interested in predictions, try the Election Prediction Project website.

[beesley]

If you're interested in predictions, try the Election Prediction Project website.

Link?

http://www.electionprediction.org/2019_fed/index.php is the current project.

http://www.electionprediction.org/method.html is the guidelines.

I'm Sam on that website.

[beesley]

What factors make a riding competitive between just the Tories and the NDP, as opposed to the Liberals? Is there some demographic element, or is it historic?

Partly historic, but there are ridings like Sarnia-Lambton and Essex which are no good for the Liberals, but the Tories or NDP only beat the other by a few points. It's a mix of urban and rural but also has a lot of manufacturing . In recent years the Liberals have done poorly in these areas. Even in 2014 the OLP had only one seat in SW Ontario, and that was in London. These areas are drifting more to the Tories.

Some are more historic, like Oshawa (formerly held by Ed Broadbent), Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, Saskatoon West (Saskatchewan has gone back to hating Liberals, unless their name is Ralph), and Elmwood-Transcona (formerly held by Bill Blaikie), where the NDP have ancestral vote and do well in provincial elections. But in many of these, the Liberals did well there last time, and having a historical link isn't enough (ask Rebecca Blaikie.)

[beesley]

In Toronto, I only have a sense what's going on for the NDP in four ridings.

Toronto-Danforth:  Documentary filmmaker Min Sook Lee looks like she has it as her strongest opponent has dropped out.

Davenport:  Former MP Andrew Cash was acclaimed in December.  He is pretty much the perfect fit for the riding.

Parkdale-High Park:  Mayoral candidate and human rights lawyer Saron Gebresellassi and Foodshare executive director Paul Taylor are both seeking the nomination.

York South-Weston:  Yafet Tewelde seems to be the only one running and he has the backing of former MP Mike Sullivan.

The first three are very low hanging fruit, YSW is a "next tier" riding held by Immigration Minister Ahmed Hussen.  No challengers yet for Bill Morneau (Toronto Centre) and Chrystia Freeland (University-Rosedale), also in the next tier.

Davenport is in my view the most likely NDP gain anywhere. The swing provincially was huge, and like the former MPP, the current MP is little more than a rank and file Liberal. This is one of the few areas where the NDP are still very palatable. Interesting that neither the Liberals or NDP nominated a Portuguese candidate, although obviously Cash is the best candidate here.

I still expect Parkdale-High Park and Toronto-Danforth to go orange. They're probably the next two likeliest gains on the list, unless Jack Harris runs in St. John's East as is rumoured.

[beesley]

The retirement list seems to have reached an end. The Conservative retirements aren't that significant. For the Liberals, the two most interesting for me are in Cumberland-Colchester, to finally conclude what the Bill Casey effect really did, plus Oakville as Kevin Flynn is running for the Grits. There is another former MPP, Yvan Baker running against a former CPC MP (as well as Peter Fonseca, but he's an incumbent in a similar race to Baker.) Should be interesting to see how personal vote plays out here.

The NDP have of course lost the most personal vote. They could have a frontbench of Singh, plus only Peter Julian, Alexandre Boulerice, Don Davies, Niki Ashton, Jenny Kwan and Brian Masse, which is being generous to them in my definition of top players. This is with Nathan Cullen, Murray Rankin, Linda Duncan, Romeo Saganash, Irene Mathyssen and David Christopherson all retiring, as well as Ruth Ellen Brosseau, Matthew Dube and Daniel Blaikie losing. They have a few good quieter MPs, such as Wayne Stetski (also very vulnerable), Sheri Benson, Richard Cannings, Gord Johns and Scott Duvall, but they are looking to have one of their worst caucuses at this rate. On the plus side, Andrew Cash, Paul Taylor and Yafet Tewelde, could be good candidates if they win, which is likely in the first two cases, plus there are possible returns from Svend Robinson and Jack Harris. If Harris runs, he'd likely win against an awful MP in Nick Whalen.

[beesley]

The NDP have of course lost the most personal vote. They could have a frontbench of Singh, plus only Peter Julian, Alexandre Boulerice, Don Davies, Niki Ashton, Jenny Kwan and Brian Masse, which is being generous to them in my definition of top players. This is with Nathan Cullen, Murray Rankin, Linda Duncan, Romeo Saganash, Irene Mathyssen and David Christopherson all retiring, as well as Ruth Ellen Brosseau, Matthew Dube and Daniel Blaikie losing. They have a few good quieter MPs, such as Wayne Stetski (also very vulnerable), Sheri Benson, Richard Cannings, Gord Johns and Scott Duvall, but they are looking to have one of their worst caucuses at this rate. On the plus side, Andrew Cash, Paul Taylor and Yafet Tewelde, could be good candidates if they win, which is likely in the first two cases, plus there are possible returns from Svend Robinson and Jack Harris. If Harris runs, he'd likely win against an awful MP in Nick Whalen.

You forgot Charlie Angus.

You are assuming REB, Dube and Blaikie will lose; REB and Dube won in 2015, I likely see them both winning again, REB I am more confident with. Blaikie I see winning again, recent polling has the NDP up in Winnipeg and his profile is much stronger now over 2015 when he was new.

You left out Tracey Ramsey who was (along with Blaikie) one of two pick-up's in 2015 for the NDP (who was high profile during the SNC hearings), Jenny Kwan longtime BC MLA and former Cabinet Minister, Pierre-Luc Dusseault another 2015 survivor and the youngest ever MP and now a finance critic, Guy Caron a leadership candidate and a highly regarded economist in his own right.

Your forgetting for candidates Matthew Green a Hamilton City Councillor to replace Christopherson, Lauren Collins another City Councillor replacing Murray; Bonita Zarrillo, city Councillor replacing Donnelly in Port Moody—Coquitlam... all strong local candidates
in Parkdale-High Park you have Saron Gebresellassi former mayoral candidate going against Paul Taylor (two high profile candidates who are in strong positions to win);
filmaker/lecturer Min Sook Lee in TO-Danforth, another prime target
Christine Saulnier with the CDN Centre for Policy Alternatives n Halifax
Leah Gazan, lecturer and leader of Idle No More Indigenous movement in WinCen. and Bob Chamberlin a BC grand chief running in Nanaimo-Ladysmith by-election.
To replace Cullen, there a strong cast so far; Annita McPhee the President of the Tahltan Central Government, Taylor Bachrach Mayor of Smithers and Smithers Town Councillor Greg Brown.

I could go on, but I think discrediting the NDP is a mistake as there are strong candidates in place along with strong MPs... who might not be on the MSM.

I don't think REB or Dube will win, I appreciate your optimism, but I just don't see it. Some polls have the NDP at 7% in Quebec. REB, Caron and Boulerice are the only candidates I can see getting re-elected (maybe Dusseault or Aubin stuns us all.) Ramsey and Blaikie are also quite vulnerable in my view, and to say that Ramsey is a good candidate isn't wrong, but so is Chris Lewis. The CPC are also doing very well in the Prairies; people did not expect Toet to defeat Maloway in 2011 and he only lost very narrowly last time. Granted, some of those Indigenous Candidates will be strong. And how could I forget Charlie Angus? I had wanted him to win the election. In a way, they all seem good against the hyper-partisan Liberal representatives in my opinion.

My point is that may still not be enough for the NDP. With their numbers, they are unlikely to lose . And where there are candidates like Matthew Green, inevitably they may have a hard time filling the footsteps of someone like David Christopherson. Seats like Fin Donnelly's were notionally Conservative in 2011, and so they are at risk. The seats gained on Vancouver Island are probably not going Conservative again (other than the two Northern ones if we're in CPC majority or near-majority territory), but in the Southern half they are undoubtedly at risk.

I'm a CPC/NB PCs supporter so I feel we have equally good candidates, but the effec . Just like for you, someone like Daniel Lee should definitely win in Willowdale, but if the Liberals do well Ali Ehsassi would win. Same goes for Marty Morantz in Charleswood-St James, Rick Perkins in South Shore-St Margaret's, Irshad Chaudhry in Scarborough Centre, and Milad Mikael in Mississauga Centre. Some CPC MPs like Robert Gordon Kitchen in Souris-Moose Mountain, Rachael Harder in Lethbridge, Bob Saroya in Markham-Unionville and Cathy Wagantall in Yorkton-Melville get little coverage for themselves outside of their ridings despite being talented and experienced.
They could and in some cases should be in the executive in my view, but if they don't win then that's due to national trends. Voters won't recognise these new NDP candidates as well as their predecessors, or they may abandon their personal vote if they no longer find the NDP palatable (that applies particularly in Quebec, and I don't think that's solely due to this popular notion that Jagmeet Singh and his turban are out of step with Quebec, but simply because the NDP is no longer the progressive voice for Quebec in government or the main opposition party Quebecers can coalesce behind.)

[beesley]

The NDP have of course lost the most personal vote. They could have a frontbench of Singh, plus only Peter Julian, Alexandre Boulerice, Don Davies, Niki Ashton, Jenny Kwan and Brian Masse, which is being generous to them in my definition of top players. This is with Nathan Cullen, Murray Rankin, Linda Duncan, Romeo Saganash, Irene Mathyssen and David Christopherson all retiring, as well as Ruth Ellen Brosseau, Matthew Dube and Daniel Blaikie losing. They have a few good quieter MPs, such as Wayne Stetski (also very vulnerable), Sheri Benson, Richard Cannings, Gord Johns and Scott Duvall, but they are looking to have one of their worst caucuses at this rate. On the plus side, Andrew Cash, Paul Taylor and Yafet Tewelde, could be good candidates if they win, which is likely in the first two cases, plus there are possible returns from Svend Robinson and Jack Harris. If Harris runs, he'd likely win against an awful MP in Nick Whalen.

You forgot Charlie Angus.

You are assuming REB, Dube and Blaikie will lose; REB and Dube won in 2015, I likely see them both winning again, REB I am more confident with. Blaikie I see winning again, recent polling has the NDP up in Winnipeg and his profile is much stronger now over 2015 when he was new.

You left out Tracey Ramsey who was (along with Blaikie) one of two pick-up's in 2015 for the NDP (who was high profile during the SNC hearings), Jenny Kwan longtime BC MLA and former Cabinet Minister, Pierre-Luc Dusseault another 2015 survivor and the youngest ever MP and now a finance critic, Guy Caron a leadership candidate and a highly regarded economist in his own right.

Your forgetting for candidates Matthew Green a Hamilton City Councillor to replace Christopherson, Lauren Collins another City Councillor replacing Murray; Bonita Zarrillo, city Councillor replacing Donnelly in Port Moody—Coquitlam... all strong local candidates
in Parkdale-High Park you have Saron Gebresellassi former mayoral candidate going against Paul Taylor (two high profile candidates who are in strong positions to win);
filmaker/lecturer Min Sook Lee in TO-Danforth, another prime target
Christine Saulnier with the CDN Centre for Policy Alternatives n Halifax
Leah Gazan, lecturer and leader of Idle No More Indigenous movement in WinCen. and Bob Chamberlin a BC grand chief running in Nanaimo-Ladysmith by-election.
To replace Cullen, there a strong cast so far; Annita McPhee the President of the Tahltan Central Government, Taylor Bachrach Mayor of Smithers and Smithers Town Councillor Greg Brown.

I could go on, but I think discrediting the NDP is a mistake as there are strong candidates in place along with strong MPs... who might not be on the MSM.

I don't think REB or Dube will win, I appreciate your optimism, but I just don't see it. Some polls have the NDP at 7% in Quebec. REB, Caron and Boulerice are the only candidates I can see getting re-elected (maybe Dusseault or Aubin stuns us all.) Ramsey and Blaikie are also quite vulnerable in my view, and to say that Ramsey is a good candidate isn't wrong, but so is Chris Lewis. The CPC are also doing very well in the Prairies; people did not expect Toet to defeat Maloway in 2011 and he only lost very narrowly last time. Granted, some of those Indigenous Candidates will be strong. And how could I forget Charlie Angus? I had wanted him to win the election. In a way, they all seem good against the hyper-partisan Liberal representatives in my opinion.

My point is that may still not be enough for the NDP. With their numbers, they are unlikely to lose . And where there are candidates like Matthew Green, inevitably they may have a hard time filling the footsteps of someone like David Christopherson. Seats like Fin Donnelly's were notionally Conservative in 2011, and so they are at risk. The seats gained on Vancouver Island are probably not going Conservative again (other than the two Northern ones if we're in CPC majority or near-majority territory), but in the Southern half they are undoubtedly at risk.

I'm a CPC/NB PCs supporter so I feel we have equally good candidates, but the effec . Just like for you, someone like Daniel Lee should definitely win in Willowdale, but if the Liberals do well Ali Ehsassi would win. Same goes for Marty Morantz in Charleswood-St James, Rick Perkins in South Shore-St Margaret's, Irshad Chaudhry in Scarborough Centre, and Milad Mikael in Mississauga Centre. Some CPC MPs like Robert Gordon Kitchen in Souris-Moose Mountain, Rachael Harder in Lethbridge, Bob Saroya in Markham-Unionville and Cathy Wagantall in Yorkton-Melville get little coverage for themselves outside of their ridings despite being talented and experienced.
They could and in some cases should be in the executive in my view, but if they don't win then that's due to national trends. Voters won't recognise these new NDP candidates as well as their predecessors, or they may abandon their personal vote if they no longer find the NDP palatable (that applies particularly in Quebec, and I don't think that's solely due to this popular notion that Jagmeet Singh and his turban are out of step with Quebec, but simply because the NDP is no longer the progressive voice for Quebec in government or the main opposition party Quebecers can coalesce behind.)

I think we need to be clear with Quebec, right now we can't predict it. The NDP have polled as high as around 20% and as low as, as you mentioned 7%. My feeling is for REB, she can likely survive due in part to her solidified position. I can realistically see the NDP hold 10-12 of their MPs if the NDP polls on the high side of 18% or so.

For Ramsey; the Windosr-Essex region while the CPC will increase the voter, should remain NDP as much of that will be LPC; while Lewis is a good candidate and performed well in the provincials, the three ridings all remained NDP on a massive swing towards the PCs province wide. Now we are post Ford, who has not done the Conservative image any favour. Ramsey has incumbency as well as a very good term under her belt. CPC will win more seats in ON, I feel the trend will look like ON18, gains in the GTA area, and Eastern/NE Ontario where the seats are LPC (Bay of Quinte, Northumberland, Nipissing)
Agreed, the CPC is polling very high out west, I can see the CPC winning 4 in Winnipeg and 4 in Alberta all held by the LPC)
My point with the new candidates replacing highly regarded MPs, the local ridings have done a good job of finding locally well known candidates with government experience (municipal) these are all (with the exception of Port Moody-Coquitlam) strong NDP seats. The Van suburbs are true three way races, and the CPC and NDP have all been up in BC.
All those CPC candidates, I agree I can see them winning.
For the NDP, I think we are seeing, slowly some of the NDP->LPC voters from 2015 migrating back. Jagmeet is performing well in the House, and policy wise have made strong announcements (that importantly is pleasing the base, in contract to Mulcair) The sunny ways LPC is gone and the boogeyman and fear mongering LPC is back (and some of that is justified since Scheer is frightfully regressive socially and scares people like me) I'm NDP/Dem.Socialist if you could not tell

Indeed. I should make it clear don't think the NDP will lose all those open seats. I can't see them losing Hamilton Centre or Skeena-Bulkley Valley. and I think they are the favourites in London-Fanshawe and Edmonton-Strathcona. Their strength in BC at different levels should help them in Nanaimo-Ladysmith as Horgan is doing decently in the relevant files. If you aren't on Election Prediction Project already, I wouldn't mind seeing some of your projections.

Side point, but if there is one NDP MP I wouldn't mind winning at the expense of the Conservatives, it's Georgina Jolibois. She has been a very strong MP on the Indigenous File, something both my party and the governing Liberals have failed on. Charlie Angus will win without question, but with Romeo Saganash gone, he could use another strong voice.  If any other group were flooded every year and needed help from the government, they would do a better job than this.

Indeed, the NDP class of 2015 are just as good, if not better than the class of 2011, which is probably a thing with waves where bad candidates can be elected. In 2011 you got Jonathan Genest-Jourdain, Brad Butt and Sana Hassainia, and in 2015 you got Nick Whalen, Rene Arseneault and Jati Sidhu (but there was a REB/Boulerice in 2011 and an Erskine-Smith/Wilson-Raybould/Blair in 2015.) Good candidates lose in bad elections and bad candidates win in good elections, which is unfortunate but that's party politics.

[beesley]

Rodger Cuzner, one of the best MPs in Ottawa is retiring. (he was the MP for Cape Breton-Canso)

Safe for the Grits, but this is their 5th retirement from Nova Scotia (Brison, Casey, Eyking, and C Fraser also.) Casey's seat will likely go blue, Fraser's is also at risk. The others are all advantage for the Liberals; Brison's old seat of Kings-Hants is the most vulnerable of the likely/safe Liberal districts here.

[beesley]

Well, there's about a week left in Nanaimo-Ladysmith, have there been any rumblings in the riding about how the race seems to be going?  Or has it been quiet?

Hard to say, but I think it is fair to say the Liberals who were never strong to begin with there will win it.  Most likely the Greens or NDP.  A remote chance Tories win, but very unlikely.  Greens did well last time and are gaining in polls so could win.  Traditionally an NDP stronghold so wouldn't surprised if they held it.  Tories haven't won here since 2000 back when NDP was at low point and Canadian Alliance at high point in BC.  Although Tories did get 40% in 2011 and that was with the left united behind the NDP.  I doubt Tories will get much above 30%, but if they got in low 30s and had perfect splits possible, but essentially they would need to pull an inside straight.  So toss-up between Greens and NDP at the moment.

Being on the opposite coast, you would have a better idea than I do, but I was under the impression that the NDP's chances had improved (partly due to star candidacy) and that the Greens were no longer the favourite. I suspect it will go down to the wire.

[beesley]

What are the odds that Trudeau wins reelection despite these scandals & controversies ?

He's an underdog. Normally Canadian PMs trailing during their term, particularly at this stage go onto lose. He's not toast just yet, and gaining a few seats in Quebec (e.g. Abitibi-Temiscamingue) might put him over the line. But he's highly likely to lose his majority. Trailing by a few points is a significant blow - the numbers should mean more damage they imply. Indeed, all the fluke ridings (e.g. Hastings-Lennox, Fundy Royal, Kildonan) should be easy pickups for the Conservatives. The real battlegrounds appear to be what should've been the battlegrounds last time, but were actually comfortably Liberal (e.g. Glengarry, Fredericton, Coquitlam, and some further for the Conservatives e.g. West Nova, Delta, London-Fanshawe (an example of an open NDP seat the Conservatives are targeting)

A Leger poll just came out showing the Liberals trailing by 13%. It may be closer, but it's an indication that a Conservative majority is in reach.

[beesley]

Because 1) Parkin lives in High Park and 2) wants the easiest ride to Parliament.  This is the most coveted nomination in the city.

I wouldn't say he's a bigger name than Saron Gebresellassi.  I'm guessing far fewer Torontonians have heard of him.  But he's a big deal to a several hundred existing members in PHP, presumably.

As far as I know he is the only contender for the nomination who lives in Parkdale-High Park (and has lived there for the last 30 years). He has also been president of the riding association there. Until recently he had a regular column in the Toronto Sun and now writes for ipolitics and Huffington Post and appears regulary on panels. People can debate whether he's the best candidate in PHP but I think he is likely the best known of the candidates...not that any of them are what anyone would call a "supernova".

Apparently Saron Gebreselassie lives in York South Weston and was riding association president there. i wonder why she didn't want the NDP nomination there? It elected a New Democrat provincially less than a year ago.

The other contender Paul Taylor seems to have impressive credentials but just moved to Toronto two years ago from Vancouver, has no history in the NDP and lives in Toronto Centre. I wonder why he doesnt run there? It also elected an NDP MPP last year by a wide margin and on top of that taylor is LGBTQ and Toronto Centre is where that community is centred.

Anyways, we shall see what happens.

So really, as per King of Kensington, it's likely that Gebresellassi and Taylor are looking for the best shots into Parliament.
Nothing stopping Taylor from running in TC if he loses PHP; and TC does sound like a better fit. But going up against the Finance Minister will be tough. Definitely in a better spot organisationally with Morrison as MPP.
For Gabresellassi, not sure why she did not run in YSW? it was an open nomination. She might be at a loss if she doesn't win the PHP nomination. Beaches-East York would be another targeted seat, but that's eastend so, maybe not. (Min Sook Lee basically has a lock on nomination Toronto-Danforth) 

All the NDP candidates in PHP are at least credible, which they need to be of course.


If I had to rank the NDP's chances in their area I would go:


1. Davenport
2. Toronto-Danforth
3. Parkdale-High Park
-- (the point where it gets a lot harder)
4. York South-Weston
5. University-Rosedale
6. Beaches-East York (could easily swap 5&6)
-- (the point where it gets near impossible, at least for the moment)
7. Spadina-Fort York
8. Toronto Centre
9. Scarborough SW

Outside of that their next best shot is a long way away.

[beesley]

Took a weekend trip to Windsor for a sport I play, and met a local couple at a bar and talked to them. Boy did they hate Trudeau! One of them was really looking forward to October. His main critique of Trudeau was he saw him as a clown on the level of Trump and that Trudeau only saw politics as a game of division where everyone gets segregated into their tribes (race or whatever). His day job was he was in the mortgage business and was hands raised up in the air of "this government has no idea what is going on at ground level and have screwed up everything".

Not surprised to hear it. Windsor used to be a lot better for the Liberals, but it's turned against them hard recently.

[beesley]

Took a weekend trip to Windsor for a sport I play, and met a local couple at a bar and talked to them. Boy did they hate Trudeau! One of them was really looking forward to October. His main critique of Trudeau was he saw him as a clown on the level of Trump and that Trudeau only saw politics as a game of division where everyone gets segregated into their tribes (race or whatever). His day job was he was in the mortgage business and was hands raised up in the air of "this government has no idea what is going on at ground level and have screwed up everything".

I suspect NDP will easily hold the two Windsor ridings.  Essex will be interesting as that could flip to Tories since it includes a lot of exurbs and fairly rural, but also could stay NDP.  The worse the Liberals do probably the better chances of NDP holding this, while if Liberal vote holds up here then Tories have good chance of flipping it.

I don't see the LPC vote tanking the way it did on ON18, down to 9%, but it won't be the 20% they got in FED15, so between there. The NDP can and should win this, Ramsey is more well known and more experienced then in 2015, but the NDP vote at this point is not what is was in 2015

Some good, relatively, news for the NDP; Indie-CCF MP Erin Weir will not run again this election in Regina–Lewvan:
"...My candidacy under another banner this year would not help to maintain progressive representation for Regina in Ottawa. Because the federal leader continues to veto my candidacy for the NDP, I will not run in the upcoming federal election."
a little sigh of relief that the party wouldn't have to face an Indie Erin on the ballot, or worse, a Green Erin.

I suspect they'll have trouble holding it anyway, but at least there's a chance of them holding it now. Desnethe seems as if they still have some small chance, but I'm not sure how strong they'll be in Saskatoon West (wouldn't rule the NDP out though.) The Conservatives have a good chance in all three.

[beesley]

Given the speculation on a future successor to Trudeau, it would be interesting to see which Cabinet Members will be defeated in October.

Highly likely to be defeated:
1. Karina Gould (Burlington)
2. Amarjeet Sohi (Edmonton Mill Woods)
Strong chance of defeat:
3. Maryam Monsef (Peterborough-Kawartha)
Possible chance of defeat:
4. Mary Ng (Markham-Thornhill)
5. Bernadette Jordan (South Shore-St. Margaret's)
6. Catherine McKenna (Ottawa Centre)
7. Filomena Tassi (Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas)
8. Ralph Goodale (Regina-Wascana)
9. Carla Qualtrough (Delta)
10. Harjit Sajjan (Vancouver South)
11. Bardish Chagger (Waterloo)
12. Ahmed Hussen (York South-Weston)
Defeat unlikely:
13. Jean-Yves Duclos (Quebec)
14. Ginette Petitpas Taylor (Moncton Riverview-Dieppe)
15. University-Rosedale (University-Rosedale)
16. Patty Hajdu (Thunder Bay-Superior North)
17. Seamus O'Regan (St. John's South-Mount Pearl)
18. Jonathan Wilkinson (North Vancouver)
19. Jim Carr (Winnipeg South Centre)
20. Marie-Claude Bibeau (Compton-Stanstead)
21. Diane Lebouthillier (Gaspesie-Iles de la Madeleine)
Defeat very unlikely:
22. David Lametti (LaSalle-Emard-Verdun)
23. Bill Morneau (Toronto Centre)
24. Joyce Murray (Vancouver-Quadra)
25. Francois-Philippe Champagne (St Maurice-Champlain)
26. Bill Blair (Scarborough-Southwest)
27. Melanie Joly (Ahuntsic-Cartierville)
28. Pablo Rodriguez (Honore-Mercier)
29. Carolyn Bennett (Toronto-St. Paul's)
30. Kirsty Duncan (Etobicoke North)
31. Navdeep Bains (Mississauga-Malton)
32. Laurence Macaulay (Cardigan)
33. Marc Garneau (Notre Dame de Grace)
34. Dominic Leblanc (Beausejour)

Clearly most of the cabinet will stay on, and either way, most of the losing ministers would be either junior ministers (like Gould and Ng) or unlikely leaders (Sohi and Qualtrough)

[beesley]

Is Morneau really two tiers "safer" than Hussen?

Or, is Jonathan Wilkinson really three tiers "safer" than Karina Gould?

Yes to both.

Morneau is an easy favourite in safe Liberal, downtown Toronto, where the NDP aren't putting up any fight and where the policies of the Liberal government are still quite popular. Hussen has a good chance but has not been a star MP outside of cabinet, is in a more working class riding, has strong CPC and NDP challengers, and could easily win.

Jonathan Wilkinson is the clear favourite in North Vancouver, I get that Andrew Saxton is running, and I suspect Wilkinson's margin will go down quite a bit but this is a pretty Liberal area of BC. Karina Gould is widely considered almost certain to lose out in Burlington and has been pretty low-profile. North Vancouver is also less receptive to the right-leaning populist social discussion than Burlington.

It largely depends on our definitions of safe and likely more than anything.

[beesley]

JWR and Philpott are almost certainly going Green, some Dipper candidates might join them.

It could happen, but Ethan Cox is NOT a reliable source at all...There is zero chance of Jane Philpott winning in Markham-Stouffville unless she joined the Conservatives (not happening)>

If Philpott runs as a Green, Independent, or a Dipper, then Markham-Stouffville is going blue. She may even come second, possible, but the Conservative vote is holding up there. JWR on the other hand could win as a Green in Granville, but she could similarly play spoiler (both seats went notionally blue in 2011, although it's fair to say M-S is a lot bluer.)

[beesley]

Philpott too.

They both called Elizabeth May "an ally" in their speeches, my guess is the Greens have agreed not to run against either of them.

As if that will make any difference to Philpott.

In other, strange, but unsurprising (and probably insignificant) former CPC MP for Essex Jeff Watson has carpetbagged over to that party's safest seat in Canada (Battle River-Crowfoot). Granted, he does live in Alberta now, but it's a bad look.

[beesley]

Interestingly two York Region MPs elected under the Liberal banner in 2015 are now running against the party - one as an independent (Jane Philpott) and Leona Alleslev (who crossed the floor to the Conservatives). 

On a good night for the Conservatives they sweep York.

[beesley]

NDP comes out for a "Green New Deal" type policy:

https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2019/05/31/ndp-set-to-unveil-15-billion-climate-plan-that-would-slash-greenhouse-gas-emissions.html?fbclid=IwAR27XbCuk-CvvsXOerxWQmciNWu5AwQlfM6Pz5MW6_94XHGm5hQjA9e43j8

All about stopping those Greens. Singh really seems to be focusing on BC and Quebec only, seemingly under the assumption they'll gain about 7-8 seats elsewhere and that they won't end up losing seats like Essex or Elmwood-Transcona which they gained last time. They should keep a few of those (South Okanagan-West Kootenay and North Island-Powell River seem the most likely) but it's a gamble, certainly.

I think there's certainly a view in the NDP that seats in Quebec such as Hochelaga and Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou are still in play for them, which is certainly optimistic. I would argue holding onto 4 seats in Quebec would be a good result for them, (the four seats being Rosemont-La Petite Patrie, Rimouski-Neigette, Berthier-Maskinonge and Sherbrooke, so not impossible. After that it gets a lot harder.) Although there's a general consensus that the Liberals may be saved by gains in Quebec (like Tory gains in Scotland,) it's actually far from clear . The myth that all Liberal seats in Quebec are somehow easy holds is rather ridiculous - if I were David Graham or Michel Picard I'd be worried. And many of their targets like Salaberry-Suroit, Hochelaga, and Beloeil-Chambly seem more likely to go Bloc at this point.

[beesley]

Anyone know of any MPs likely to stand down? Scott Simms seems possible as he doesn't seem to have announced; neither has Anju Dhillon. In Dufferin-Caledon where David Tilson isn't reoffering, there's a nomination issue with the Conservatives.

[beesley]

Christine Moore, NDP MP for Abitibi-Témiscamingue will not run again. She can be added to the list of incumbents not running.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election#Incumbents_not_running_for_reelection

She had a lot of bad press recently and was never offered a senior role by Mulcair or Singh this Parliament.

Very likely Liberal gain.

[beesley]

In other news, Lenore Zann has left the NS NDP, in order to run for the chance to lose to Scott Armstrong in Cumberland-Colchester.

[beesley]

In other news, Lenore Zann has left the NS NDP, in order to run for the chance to lose to Scott Armstrong in Cumberland-Colchester.

To clarify, she's running federally for the *Liberals*.  (Which blurs the chance-to-lose potential, even if it infuriates the NDP left.)

Hmm, that's interesting, could put a wrinkle in what should be a fairly easy Tory pickup.

What’s in it for her? First of all apparently three other people are running for the Liberal nomination so who knows if she can even win the nomination. Second of all the Tories are heavily favoured to win that seat. The Nova Scotia Liberals are extremely unpopular these days. So what exactly does she gain? Does she think Trudeau might appoint her to the senate ?

Definitely agree with you DL.

The law in Canada says that if you are nominated as a federal candidate, you are disqualified from your provincial seat. So Zann, Eddie Orrell, Chris d'Entremont, Alfie Macleod, Warren Steinley and Marie-France Lalonde (that's all as far as I'm aware) will all be affected; considering only Lalonde and Steinley are definite favourites it's a risky move.