Canadian Election 2019
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Author Topic: Canadian Election 2019  (Read 189100 times)
the506
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« Reply #425 on: May 25, 2019, 08:18:15 PM »

How did Singh become NDP leader in the first place.

They saw Trudeau won on shallow stylistics and wanted to do the same thing.
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DL
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« Reply #426 on: May 25, 2019, 09:10:39 PM »


It could happen, but Ethan Cox is NOT a reliable source at all...There is zero chance of Jane Philpott winning in Markham-Stouffville unless she joined the Conservatives (not happening)>
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beesley
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« Reply #427 on: May 26, 2019, 05:10:52 AM »


It could happen, but Ethan Cox is NOT a reliable source at all...There is zero chance of Jane Philpott winning in Markham-Stouffville unless she joined the Conservatives (not happening)>

If Philpott runs as a Green, Independent, or a Dipper, then Markham-Stouffville is going blue. She may even come second, possible, but the Conservative vote is holding up there. JWR on the other hand could win as a Green in Granville, but she could similarly play spoiler (both seats went notionally blue in 2011, although it's fair to say M-S is a lot bluer.)
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #428 on: May 26, 2019, 07:05:49 PM »

JWR and Philpott are not going Green.
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DL
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« Reply #429 on: May 26, 2019, 11:17:50 PM »


This is crushing news for Elizabeth May. They may as well have whacked her with a sledgehammer
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #430 on: May 27, 2019, 02:11:01 AM »


The article actually said 'former NDP candidates.'
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trebor204
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« Reply #431 on: May 27, 2019, 11:05:08 AM »

Wilson-Raybould to run as an Independent
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the506
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« Reply #432 on: May 27, 2019, 12:08:47 PM »

Philpott too.

They both called Elizabeth May "an ally" in their speeches, my guess is the Greens have agreed not to run against either of them.
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beesley
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« Reply #433 on: May 27, 2019, 12:24:22 PM »

Philpott too.

They both called Elizabeth May "an ally" in their speeches, my guess is the Greens have agreed not to run against either of them.

As if that will make any difference to Philpott.

In other, strange, but unsurprising (and probably insignificant) former CPC MP for Essex Jeff Watson has carpetbagged over to that party's safest seat in Canada (Battle River-Crowfoot). Granted, he does live in Alberta now, but it's a bad look.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #434 on: May 27, 2019, 12:36:08 PM »

Wilson-Raybould to run as an Independent


Philpott too.

They both called Elizabeth May "an ally" in their speeches, my guess is the Greens have agreed not to run against either of them.

If the election results in a minority government (which is pretty much the expectation as of now), especially a very close one, then you can expect JWR & Philpott (if they win) to have a lot of power & influence.

JWR looks like she'll be able to draw votes from all parties, especially if she's the de-facto Green candidate in her riding, but it's still unclear if it'll be enough to win. IMO, it's going to be much tougher sledding for Philpott, though, in a riding that's already a very tight LPC-CPC race. Unless Philpott can pull some CPC voters over, I'd say her riding is, at the very least, Lean CPC as of now.

Also, say what you will about their politics, & regardless of whichever side of this whole shebang you may fall on, but you gotta admire how these two are committed to sticking together through thick & thin.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #435 on: May 27, 2019, 12:38:20 PM »

JWR can win as an independent with disaffected Liberals, no Green candidate and a lot of NDP voters.

Stouffville is almost certainly going Tory though.  The Conservatives have a base of 40%, the NDP and Greens are nonfactors and any split in the Liberal vote means the Cons win.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #436 on: May 27, 2019, 12:43:05 PM »

Interestingly two York Region MPs elected under the Liberal banner in 2015 are now running against the party - one as an independent (Jane Philpott) and Leona Alleslev (who crossed the floor to the Conservatives). 
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beesley
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« Reply #437 on: May 27, 2019, 12:44:44 PM »

Interestingly two York Region MPs elected under the Liberal banner in 2015 are now running against the party - one as an independent (Jane Philpott) and Leona Alleslev (who crossed the floor to the Conservatives). 

On a good night for the Conservatives they sweep York.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #438 on: May 27, 2019, 12:50:29 PM »

Relative to the GTA, York Region is trending Conservative.  That was clear in the most recent federal and provinical elections.
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UWS
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« Reply #439 on: May 27, 2019, 04:18:51 PM »

I wonder how the start of the process of the ratification of the new NAFTA could influence Trudeau’s chances.

https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/201905/27/01-5227733-aceum-le-gouvernement-trudeau-amorce-la-ratification.php
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adma
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« Reply #440 on: May 27, 2019, 05:26:50 PM »

JWR can win as an independent with disaffected Liberals, no Green candidate and a lot of NDP voters.

Stouffville is almost certainly going Tory though.  The Conservatives have a base of 40%, the NDP and Greens are nonfactors and any split in the Liberal vote means the Cons win.

Actually, I can see that base as softer than it looks--thanks to Markham Village and maybe even certain elements of Old Stouffville, Markham-Stouffville has a certain "Red Tory" tendency that might well find Philpott more congenial as an indy than as a Liberal; I wouldn't be surprised if she's capable of assembling a "Bill Casey" kind of voting coalition.  (Even some of the newer subdivisions, like Cornell Village, have more of a "propriety" than most of York Region's ethnoburbia.)

On a tangent, Markham has voted "independent" in the relatively recent past: Markham mayor Tony Roman won in 1984 thanks to a backlash against far-right Tory incumbent John Gamble.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #441 on: May 31, 2019, 02:56:29 PM »

NDP comes out for a "Green New Deal" type policy:

https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2019/05/31/ndp-set-to-unveil-15-billion-climate-plan-that-would-slash-greenhouse-gas-emissions.html?fbclid=IwAR27XbCuk-CvvsXOerxWQmciNWu5AwQlfM6Pz5MW6_94XHGm5hQjA9e43j8


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beesley
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« Reply #442 on: June 01, 2019, 03:02:05 AM »


All about stopping those Greens. Singh really seems to be focusing on BC and Quebec only, seemingly under the assumption they'll gain about 7-8 seats elsewhere and that they won't end up losing seats like Essex or Elmwood-Transcona which they gained last time. They should keep a few of those (South Okanagan-West Kootenay and North Island-Powell River seem the most likely) but it's a gamble, certainly.

I think there's certainly a view in the NDP that seats in Quebec such as Hochelaga and Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou are still in play for them, which is certainly optimistic. I would argue holding onto 4 seats in Quebec would be a good result for them, (the four seats being Rosemont-La Petite Patrie, Rimouski-Neigette, Berthier-Maskinonge and Sherbrooke, so not impossible. After that it gets a lot harder.) Although there's a general consensus that the Liberals may be saved by gains in Quebec (like Tory gains in Scotland,) it's actually far from clear . The myth that all Liberal seats in Quebec are somehow easy holds is rather ridiculous - if I were David Graham or Michel Picard I'd be worried. And many of their targets like Salaberry-Suroit, Hochelaga, and Beloeil-Chambly seem more likely to go Bloc at this point.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #443 on: June 02, 2019, 09:24:55 AM »

Good numbers for the NDP in Ontario, LOL at the Green numbers for MB/SK.

https://abacusdata.ca/liberals-and-conservatives-neck-and-neck-as-greens-rise-to-12
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adma
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« Reply #444 on: June 02, 2019, 01:08:35 PM »


Though what I find counterintuitively interesting about those numbers is that the NDP-vs-Green margin actually *increases* (to 24-14, with the former number above CPC) among the 18-29's--which contradicts the conventional wisdom about the former being "yesterday's party", or the latter wildly overperforming among Millennials.

It'd seem from this poll that the increasing "validation" of the Green option reflects not so much a younger-demo boost as a relative flattening-out across all ages--which isn't surprising given how many of the party's present hot-spots seem to be of a retiree or aging-hippie nature, akin to the beards-and-sandals/Celtic-fringe base of the UK Liberals of the 1970s.  (And of course, there's the leadership matter: Singh's inherent appeal to "Metropolitan Millennials", vs May fitting the retiree/aging-hippie niche and too soft-focus for a Corbyn-Sanders sagely-elder command to boot).

Oh, and even if it's actually a technical tie, for the Libs to poll ahead shows how vulnerable the argument that SNC-Lavalin would take them terminally out of play was.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #445 on: June 02, 2019, 01:44:43 PM »

I wonder how much the age flattening of the Green vote and younger pull of the NDP is due to the Greens being a very "white" party (millennials are much more diverse than Boomers+).
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lilTommy
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« Reply #446 on: June 03, 2019, 06:44:27 AM »


All about stopping those Greens. Singh really seems to be focusing on BC and Quebec only, seemingly under the assumption they'll gain about 7-8 seats elsewhere and that they won't end up losing seats like Essex or Elmwood-Transcona which they gained last time. They should keep a few of those (South Okanagan-West Kootenay and North Island-Powell River seem the most likely) but it's a gamble, certainly.

I think there's certainly a view in the NDP that seats in Quebec such as Hochelaga and Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou are still in play for them, which is certainly optimistic. I would argue holding onto 4 seats in Quebec would be a good result for them, (the four seats being Rosemont-La Petite Patrie, Rimouski-Neigette, Berthier-Maskinonge and Sherbrooke, so not impossible. After that it gets a lot harder.) Although there's a general consensus that the Liberals may be saved by gains in Quebec (like Tory gains in Scotland,) it's actually far from clear . The myth that all Liberal seats in Quebec are somehow easy holds is rather ridiculous - if I were David Graham or Michel Picard I'd be worried. And many of their targets like Salaberry-Suroit, Hochelaga, and Beloeil-Chambly seem more likely to go Bloc at this point.

I'd argue that this is a plan that is much more representative of the memberships direction. The loss of Nanaimo-Ladysmith I would argue was the catalyst for the party leadership to move the platform in the direction of where the membership is (also we have to accept the defeat was CLEARLY a response to the BCNDP rather then Singh's NDP). A response to the green surge? partly yes, but more a re-alignment to where the base is sitting right now, which has been in the works probably over the past year or two.

This policy is getting a very positive response from party supporters/members (many who I saw were wary towards Singh) so this is winning the base. This is also getting good response from Unions and organized labour, as well as strong support from environmentalist. Again typically NDP "considering" groups.
To your point, I think there is a focus on Ontario here too as well as an urban one. Now this policy will not help in Alberta (outside Edmonton and even then), and to some extent Saskatchewan; BUT there is a populist tilt here too so in these provinces, and more rural areas see those aspects being focused (saves you money, creates jobs, etc)

BUT what this does do, is sets the tone for the entire climate/environment debate, taking some wind out of the sails of the Greens partly and the Liberals (who were kind of weak in this area anyway). The NDP is now the only party to not support Oil&Gas and pipeline expansion (Greens support internal gas use and pipelines) federally.
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beesley
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« Reply #447 on: June 07, 2019, 05:17:06 AM »

Anyone know of any MPs likely to stand down? Scott Simms seems possible as he doesn't seem to have announced; neither has Anju Dhillon. In Dufferin-Caledon where David Tilson isn't reoffering, there's a nomination issue with the Conservatives.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #448 on: June 07, 2019, 10:06:26 AM »

What are the percentage of odds that Trudeau wins reelection as Canadian PM this fall ?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #449 on: June 07, 2019, 12:08:30 PM »

What are the percentage of odds that Trudeau wins reelection as Canadian PM this fall ?


If you mean remains PM, I would say quite high, if you mean greatest number of seats, not so great, but polls suggest things are levelling off and Liberals rebounding in Ontario, but not so much elsewhere.  Lets remember Greens and NDP are far closer to Liberals than Tories so as long as those three combined get 170 seats, he will remain PM even if Tories win a plurality of seats.  For Tories they have to get a majority for Scheer to become PM or at least Tories + PPC (who are unlikely to win any seats) get a majority.  I think if Doug Ford wasn't messing up so badly in Ontario, Tories would have a decent shot at a majority, but Doug Ford is really hurting the Tories in Ontario and being the largest province that is a bit of a problem.
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