Canadian Election 2019

[136or142]

How come Singh is running in BC when he lives in Ontario

Because all of Canada is now a suburb of Toronto

[136or142]

The Quebec Premier has started a list of demands to federal parties ahead of the federal election.

Have a single income tax return for provincial and federal government managed by Quebec
$300 million in compensation for costs incurred by asylum seekers crossing the border
More power over the selection of immigrants
Funding for public transit projects
Compensation for dairy farmers hurt by the Nafta renegotiation

The filing of a single tax return managed by Quebec was a motion supported by all parties in the National assembly last year. Conservatives and Bloc are for it. NDP adopted it as policy last year but seem to have changed their mind and no longer support it, the Liberals look like they are against.

Scheer has presented five policies to appeal to Quebec:
More autonomy over immigration
Single income tax return
Name a Quebec minister in charge of the federal economic development agency for Quebec
Incentive for retirees to work
Invest to stop wastewater flowing in rivers

https://ipolitics.ca/2019/01/21/scheer-presents-first-wave-of-tories-quebec-centric-policies/   

Pandering.

[136or142]

Three former Liberal candidates are considering running for Tory nominations.  This will be interesting as no doubt the Tories can use this as proof the Liberals have abandoned the centre and swung too far to the left.  Might not amount to much, but probably something the Liberals would rather not have or at least they would probably like to get some former Tories to run under their banner in exchange to offset this.

David Bertschi (Liberal candidate 2011 in Ottawa-Orleans) running for Conservative nomination for Orleans.  He endorsed Erin O'Toole back in 2017 as CPC leader so already leaning that way.

Andrew Kania (Liberal MP Brampton West 2008-2011) endorses the Tories and is considering running for them in Brampton South.

Wendy Yuan (Liberal candidate Vancouver-Kingsway 2008 and 2011) running for Tory nomination in Steveston-Richmond East (interestingly enough Liberal MP Joe Peschisolido was first elected in 2000 as a Canadian Alliance MP and for Reform Party in both 1993 and a 1996 by-election so talk about swapping places).

Steveston-Richmond East is my riding. I'd consider voting for Wendy Yuan over Joe Peschisolido.

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Given Mainstreet's track record in recent years, perhaps we should take their numbers with a grain of salt.

True, but the numbers are very similar to the Nanos numbers.  The only real difference is that Bernier's party has more support.

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I'm just going to pop in here and note that Quebec in 2015 was:

35.7 Lib
16.7 Con
25.4 NDP
19.3 BQ
2.4 Other

So the poll has Libs up 3, Con up 4, BQ up 2, Bernier gaining 6, and and NDP down 17.

Nowhere to go but up!

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Nowhere to go but up!

Really?  Except for 1965 and 1988, single digits was the NDP norm for QC pre-2008.  The main thing standing in the way of that now is token incumbent seat bounce...

It's like at a hockey game when your team is trailing 5-1 with 5 minutes to go, and the other team scores to make it 6-1.  I always say "this will just make the comeback all the more exciting!"

[136or142]

Ah sh-t.

There's an argument to be made that this is all the NDP's fault for bucking Tom Mulcair. He'd be ravaging the government on the daily in Question Period and come off like a reasonable, responsible, progressive leader. Instead there's bumbling Singh who has a snowflake's chance in Hell of presenting the NDP as a reasonable alternative to the Liberals.

But I digress.

NDP voters made a serious miscalculation. I know they wanted someone to outcharisma Trudeau but it's the Liberals. Something like this was bound to happen eventually.

The Conservatives are even more corrupt, they're just more brazen about it and they have most of the media on their side.

For instance, CBC did a series of stories about a decade ago on how the Conservatives helped the pipeline industry cover up oil spills, but outside of the CBC, it was never reported on.

[136or142]

First post scandal poll is out from Campaign Research

Conservative: 37%
Liberal: 32%
NDP: 14%
Green: 7%
Bloc: 5%
People's: 3%

Large change from pre-scandal polling but not a major shift from the last Campaign Research poll, which had the Liberals and Tories statistically tied.

Could be accurate but this is Nick Kouvalis' firm.

[136or142]

He's really going to do it. He's really going to lose. Unbelievable.

I think it's more likely that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigns.  I certainly hope he is considering doing that.

[136or142]

He's really going to do it. He's really going to lose. Unbelievable.

I think it's more likely that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigns.  I certainly hope he is considering doing that.

You must be kidding.

His principle secretary just resigned in a way that made no sense "I'm resigning because I've done nothing wrong."  (He said he's resigning so that he can better defend himself.  Of course, to many people, his resignation will be seen as an admission of guilt, so he's hardly set himself up well.)

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is the only one on the ladder who's higher.
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As to the scandal itself, there is no question the right wing media (Post Media, Global News and Corus Entertainment) and the Conservative Party are both completely insincere on this and only a fool could believe that a Conservative government under Andrew Scheer would not be more corrupt.

When the hysteria over the woman jailed in the healing lodge came up, the Liberals defended the decision to place her there by pointing out the independence of the prison system and the criminal justice system. At that time, the Conservatives and the right wing media argued "nobody understands or cares about an abstract issue like an independent criminal justice system, and nobody should care."

However, now both are insincerely claiming there is nothing more important than an independent judicial system. For both the Conservatives and the right wing media this is nothing more than scoring political points and trying to get resignations.  

That the noxious and hyper-partisan Pierre Polievre is one of the Conservative Party leads on this whole thing should tell everybody that Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives don't give a rat's ass about the underlying issue of an independent criminal justice system.

However, for people like me who do see the need for an independent criminal justice system, the evidence seems fairly clear that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau did attempt to interfere and therefore is not fit to be Prime Minister.

That Andrew Scheer is not fit to be Prime Minister is beyond clear.

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He's really going to do it. He's really going to lose. Unbelievable.

I think it's more likely that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigns.  I certainly hope he is considering doing that.

You must be kidding.

I would rather have Justin Trudeau and the Liberals lose in a landslide so Andrew Scheer has the mandate to accomplish all the things Stephen Harper was unable to do on his agenda and more.

You want to see Canada become as neo-feudalist as the United States is?

[136or142]

He's really going to do it. He's really going to lose. Unbelievable.

I think it's more likely that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigns.  I certainly hope he is considering doing that.

You must be kidding.

I would rather have Justin Trudeau and the Liberals lose in a landslide so Andrew Scheer has the mandate to accomplish all the things Stephen Harper was unable to do on his agenda and more.

You want to see Canada become as neo-feudalist as the United States is?

No I want Canada to thrive economically like the US

Canada's economy is doing fine in aggregate and is doing it without a $1 trillion annual federal budget deficit as has been temporarily boosting the U.S economy.

The last thing Canada needs is right wing economics that benefit the wealthy at the expense of everybody else, whether it's through allowing the environment to be used as a free dumping site, tax cuts for the wealthy that promote wealth inequality or what-have-you.

[136or142]

Ah sh-t.

There's an argument to be made that this is all the NDP's fault for bucking Tom Mulcair. He'd be ravaging the government on the daily in Question Period and come off like a reasonable, responsible, progressive leader. Instead there's bumbling Singh who has a snowflake's chance in Hell of presenting the NDP as a reasonable alternative to the Liberals.

But I digress.

NDP voters made a serious miscalculation. I know they wanted someone to outcharisma Trudeau but it's the Liberals. Something like this was bound to happen eventually.

The Conservatives are even more corrupt, they're just more brazen about it and they have most of the media on their side.

For instance, CBC did a series of stories about a decade ago on how the Conservatives helped the pipeline industry cover up oil spills, but outside of the CBC, it was never reported on.

For someone who goes to such efforts to chronicle GOP misbehaviour south of the border, that your first response to a Canadian Liberal scandal on Atlas was #BothSidesTenYearsAgo is rather telling.

Hacks gonna hack I guess.

Your argument was 'but it's the Liberals' which implies either that the Liberals are inherently corrupt or are worse than the other political parties.  What response other than what I gave would you expect?

If you want to see a Conservative Party hack, take a look in the mirror.

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You must be logged in to read this quote.

Just to back this up:
1.In regards to the healing lodge hysteria, the Conservative Party public safety critic called for Minister Ralph Goodale to personally overturn the decision.

When Goodale argued he did not have the power to do this based on the independence of the Criminal Justice System,  the right wing media (National Post, Corus Entertainment/Global News) argued seemingly all as one "the Liberals are going to have to come up with a better argument than some abstract principle that nobody understands or cares about in order to defuse this situation." (Andrew Coyne would likely have been an exception.)

2.The reports that Andrew Scheer was also meeting with executives from SNC Lavalin, and that this new deferred prosecution option was actually started during the previous Conservative Government. (I don't know if it ever got beyond the civil service stage at that point.)

3.The Conservatives using Pierre Polievre as their lead on this (along with Justice critic Lisa Raitt.)  Among other things, Pierre Polievre wore a shirt with a Conservative Party logo on it to an event that was supposed to be non-partisan in the lead-up to the last election.  I can't think of any greater dog-whistle the Conservatives could be sending to interested supporters of 'we're not actually interested in the independence of the judiciary' than making Pierre Polievre (who isn't even a lawyer) the co-lead on this file.

4.The Harper government using the Justice Minister as a partisan agent during their last term by passing several laws that it knew were unconstitutional just so they could be struck down by the courts, so the Conservatives could fund-raise off of that, and attempt to run against the courts.

In further regard to the right wing media  (of course, this highlights the opposite problem as well, that the institutions themselves can't be trusted to follow due process and equal protection) when Auditor General Michael Fraser's report on the Canada Revenue Agency came out, one of the problems it highlighted was the grossly favored treatment given to wealthy Canadians versus every other Canadian.

Both the Post Media Chain and the Star Chain reported on this report and bullet pointed several of the highlights in the report.  The Star Chain (I usually read the free Star Metro) mentioned this unequal treatment in a bullet point, the right wing Post Media Chain did not.

[136or142]

Ah sh-t.

There's an argument to be made that this is all the NDP's fault for bucking Tom Mulcair. He'd be ravaging the government on the daily in Question Period and come off like a reasonable, responsible, progressive leader. Instead there's bumbling Singh who has a snowflake's chance in Hell of presenting the NDP as a reasonable alternative to the Liberals.

But I digress.

NDP voters made a serious miscalculation. I know they wanted someone to outcharisma Trudeau but it's the Liberals. Something like this was bound to happen eventually.

The Conservatives are even more corrupt, they're just more brazen about it and they have most of the media on their side.

For instance, CBC did a series of stories about a decade ago on how the Conservatives helped the pipeline industry cover up oil spills, but outside of the CBC, it was never reported on.

For someone who goes to such efforts to chronicle GOP misbehaviour south of the border, that your first response to a Canadian Liberal scandal on Atlas was #BothSidesTenYearsAgo is rather telling.

Hacks gonna hack I guess.

Your argument was 'but it's the Liberals' which implies either that the Liberals are inherently corrupt or are worse than the other political parties.  What response other than what I gave would you expect?

If you want to see a Conservative Party hack, take a look in the mirror.

No, his argument simply notes that in this particular case the liberals fall under quite a cloud of suspicion and the other Canadian parties do not. If the accusation are true, then the real criminals sit in government, and not in opposition as you have quite bizarrely asserted previously.

His line 'but it's the Liberals' stems from a dishonest right wing Canadian narrative that the Liberal Party of Canada is uniquely corrupt and uniquely arrogant.  This is what my comment was addressing.

As my previous post shows, the Conservative Party is thoroughly corrupt. "Morally corrupt" as Maxime Bernier put it.

Nice attempt at a strawman argument though.

[136or142]

Ah sh-t.

There's an argument to be made that this is all the NDP's fault for bucking Tom Mulcair. He'd be ravaging the government on the daily in Question Period and come off like a reasonable, responsible, progressive leader. Instead there's bumbling Singh who has a snowflake's chance in Hell of presenting the NDP as a reasonable alternative to the Liberals.

But I digress.

NDP voters made a serious miscalculation. I know they wanted someone to outcharisma Trudeau but it's the Liberals. Something like this was bound to happen eventually.

The Conservatives are even more corrupt, they're just more brazen about it and they have most of the media on their side.

For instance, CBC did a series of stories about a decade ago on how the Conservatives helped the pipeline industry cover up oil spills, but outside of the CBC, it was never reported on.

For someone who goes to such efforts to chronicle GOP misbehaviour south of the border, that your first response to a Canadian Liberal scandal on Atlas was #BothSidesTenYearsAgo is rather telling.

Hacks gonna hack I guess.

Your argument was 'but it's the Liberals' which implies either that the Liberals are inherently corrupt or are worse than the other political parties.  What response other than what I gave would you expect?

If you want to see a Conservative Party hack, take a look in the mirror.

No, his argument simply notes that in this particular case the liberals fall under quite a cloud of suspicion and the other Canadian parties do not. If the accusation are true, then the real criminals sit in government, and not in opposition as you have quite bizarrely asserted previously.

His line 'but it's the Liberals' stems from a dishonest right wing Canadian narrative that the Liberal Party of Canada is uniquely corrupt and uniquely arrogant.  This is what my comment was addressing.

As my previous post shows, the Conservative Party is thoroughly corrupt. "Morally corrupt" as Maxime Bernier put it.

Nice attempt at a strawman argument though.

When you assert that pointing out that this Liberal government in this particular case may have acted in a corrupt fashion is the exact same thing as saying that the "Liberal Party is uniquely corrupt" is a classic example of putting words into another's mouth that they simply did not say so as to argue against a strawman rather than what they actually said.


Now, I understand that you have argued your subjective belief that the Conservative Party of Canada is "morally corrupt." That may, or may not, be true, but, in either case it is  totally irrelevant to any consideration as to whether, or not, the Liberal Party, or more specifically its Premier, acted in a corrupt fashion in this particular case.

My opinion is that paying brides is often a necessary condition for doing business in countries characterized by rampant corruption, and, that passing laws against such bribes, which is more accurately described as being extorted, is a pretentious moral posturing. However, my view didn't prevail, and, the law is what it is. If it is the law, there should be no exception for corporations too big to jail, or too big to fail.

Absolutely not.  The use of a phrase such as 'but it's the Liberals' doesn't come from nowhere.  I explained the narrative that buttresses the phrase and it's a false narrative.

This really isn't worth debating, especially with a person whose signature indicates they are a supporter of Traitor Trump.

[136or142]

Ah sh-t.

There's an argument to be made that this is all the NDP's fault for bucking Tom Mulcair. He'd be ravaging the government on the daily in Question Period and come off like a reasonable, responsible, progressive leader. Instead there's bumbling Singh who has a snowflake's chance in Hell of presenting the NDP as a reasonable alternative to the Liberals.

But I digress.

NDP voters made a serious miscalculation. I know they wanted someone to outcharisma Trudeau but it's the Liberals. Something like this was bound to happen eventually.

The Conservatives are even more corrupt, they're just more brazen about it and they have most of the media on their side.

For instance, CBC did a series of stories about a decade ago on how the Conservatives helped the pipeline industry cover up oil spills, but outside of the CBC, it was never reported on.

For someone who goes to such efforts to chronicle GOP misbehaviour south of the border, that your first response to a Canadian Liberal scandal on Atlas was #BothSidesTenYearsAgo is rather telling.

Hacks gonna hack I guess.

Your argument was 'but it's the Liberals' which implies either that the Liberals are inherently corrupt or are worse than the other political parties.  What response other than what I gave would you expect?

If you want to see a Conservative Party hack, take a look in the mirror.

No, his argument simply notes that in this particular case the liberals fall under quite a cloud of suspicion and the other Canadian parties do not. If the accusation are true, then the real criminals sit in government, and not in opposition as you have quite bizarrely asserted previously.

His line 'but it's the Liberals' stems from a dishonest right wing Canadian narrative that the Liberal Party of Canada is uniquely corrupt and uniquely arrogant.  This is what my comment was addressing.

As my previous post shows, the Conservative Party is thoroughly corrupt. "Morally corrupt" as Maxime Bernier put it.

Nice attempt at a strawman argument though.

When you assert that pointing out that this Liberal government in this particular case may have acted in a corrupt fashion is the exact same thing as saying that the "Liberal Party is uniquely corrupt" is a classic example of putting words into another's mouth that they simply did not say so as to argue against a strawman rather than what they actually said.


Now, I understand that you have argued your subjective belief that the Conservative Party of Canada is "morally corrupt." That may, or may not, be true, but, in either case it is  totally irrelevant to any consideration as to whether, or not, the Liberal Party, or more specifically its Premier, acted in a corrupt fashion in this particular case.

My opinion is that paying brides is often a necessary condition for doing business in countries characterized by rampant corruption, and, that passing laws against such bribes, which is more accurately described as being extorted, is a pretentious moral posturing. However, my view didn't prevail, and, the law is what it is. If it is the law, there should be no exception for corporations too big to jail, or too big to fail.

Absolutely not.  The use of a phrase such as 'but it's the Liberals' doesn't come from nowhere.  I explained the narrative that buttresses the phrase and it's a false narrative.

This really isn't worth debating, especially with a person whose signature indicates they are a supporter of Traitor Trump.

The phrase "but it's the Liberals'" certainly comes from somewhere, but, your claim that it is a statement that the Liberal Party of Canada is "uniquely corrupt" originates in your imagination. In this very thread you have bizarrely asserted that the Conservatives are especially corrupt by such means as guilt by association tactics and criminalizing politics. Well, folks on the other side are equally entitled to argue that the Liberal Party of Canada is especially corrupt, as well. But, you simply won't grant them that privilege. In an act of rhetoric that allows for no dissent from your viewpoint you claim that any noting of corruption by the Liberal Party of Canada, and more specifically its premier, is actually a claim that only corruption exists in one party. That is morally wrong, and, intellectually indefensible.

Gibberish.

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Latest polling from Nanos (tracking) (February 22 release) and Angus Reid (February 24 release.) The interesting thing about the polls is that they are in rough agreement regionally save for Quebec.  (Nanos regional breakdown can be found by looking up 'Nanos on the numbers.'

Overall
Nanos
Liberal: 36
Conservative: 34
NDP: 15
Green: 8
B.Q: 4
PPC: 1

Angus Reid
Liberal: 31
Conservative: 38
NDP: 14
Green: 8
B.Q: 4
Others: 5

Atlantic
Nanos
Liberal: 45
Conservative: 31
NDP: 12
Green:8
PPC: 3

Angus Reid
Liberal: 40
Conservative: 34
NDP: 8
Green: 10

Ontario
Nanos
Liberal: 40
Conservative: 34
NDP: 16
Green: 10

Angus Reid
Liberal: 37
Conservative: 40
NDP: 14
Green: 7

Prairies
Nanos
Liberal: 19
Conservative: 57
NDP: 13
Green: 4
PPC: 3

Angus Reid
Saskatchewan/Manitoba
Liberal: 28
Conservative: 50
NDP: 10
Green: 3

Alberta
Liberal: 19
Conservative: 60
NDP: 9
Green: 5

British Columbia
Nanos
Liberal: 33
Conservative: 30
NDP: 20
Green: 16

Angus Reid:
Liberal: 28
Conservative: 33
NDP: 21
Green: 13

Quebec
Nanos
Liberal: 43
Conservative: 15
NDP: 13
Green: 5
B.Q: 16
PPC: 1

Angus Reid
Liberal: 24
Conservative: 24
NDP: 14
Green: 10
B.Q: 22

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It could be a meaningless statistical blip for the NDP, but these recent polls suggest the NDP decline has stopped and there is a slight uptick (13 to 14 to 15% with Nanos in the last couple weeks.  Of course within the margin of error.)  

However, to the degree that these polls suggest a possible change in fortune for the NDP, Jagmeet Singh happened to get elected at the right time, as a sustained increase in support would likely be credited to his getting elected to Parliament and his performance in Parliament even though it might be a coincidence.

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Nanos is out today.  Interesting Tories and Liberals tied in Atlantic Canada.  While skeptical whether this is true or not, if true could be a huge problem for the Liberals.  The good news is also tied in BC and Ontario while Tories at 64% in Prairies so a lot of wasted votes there while Liberals still well in front in Quebec.

Conservatives 36%
Liberals 32.9%
NDP 17.9%
Greens 8.3
BQ 3.6
PPC 0.5%

PPC pretty much irrelevant, but I think most on the right are driven more by hatred of Trudeau than like of either Scheer or Bernier so not surprised they are swinging behind whom has the better chance of defeating Trudeau.

In terms of raw support, the NDP seem to have been the main beneficiary of this scandal.

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Alex Nuttall not seeking reelection.

11th Conservative M.P to not seek reelection (not including those who already resigned and didn't serve out the full term they were elected to.) The wheels are falling off the Conservative bus. Scheer has a nice smile though.

[136or142]

Alex Nuttall not seeking reelection.

11th Conservative M.P to not seek reelection (not including those who already resigned and didn't serve out the full term they were elected to.) The wheels are falling off the Conservative bus. Scheer has a nice smile though.

Even though he's a first-termer sitting on a recount margin, I think it's pushing things to frame this as a wheels-falling-off-bus circumstance.  Among a caucus of a hundred or so, many of which have been there for several terms, 11 not seeking reelection doesn't seem particularly abnormal...

It was meant hyperbolicaly since every time a bunch of people leave, the media and the hyper partisans often chant "the wheels are falling off" or some such thing.  The right wing dominated mainstream media is less likely to do that with the Conservatives, however, that was certainly the narrative with the NDP.

To be precise though, it isn't just the 11 not seeking re-election (so far), but another, I believe, 7 left without serving out their full terms. (Dianne Watts, Jason Kenney, Rona Ambrose, Stephen Harper, Gerry Ritz, Peter Van Loan and Denis Lebel.)

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CBC says Grit caucus wants to expel JWR and Philpott next week. The recording is indeed with Wernick.

Link to audio for those interested

Wernick and Trudeau do not come off well here. Tape disproves Butts claim about government not knowing. JWR was upset.

Those defending Trudeau (mostly criticizing Raybould) point out that Raybould knew she was recording herself.  However, I don't hear anything from Wernick in the recording that suggested that she was taken aback by her speaking style or thinking to himself "she sounds oddly preachy."  I don't know how often they spoke though.   

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The wheels continue to fall off the Conservative bus.  They are now up to 13 retirements with two former experienced cabinet ministers having announced they won't run again:  former Minister of State for Finance Kevin Sorenson and former Foreign Affairs Minister Rob Nicholson.

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JWR and Philpott are almost certainly going Green, some Dipper candidates might join them.

The article actually said 'former NDP candidates.'