Canadian Election 2019
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 12:31:59 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Canadian Election 2019
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 7 8 9 ... 91
Author Topic: Canadian Election 2019  (Read 189137 times)
GM Team Member and Senator WB
weatherboy1102
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,623
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.61, S: -7.83

P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #75 on: January 22, 2019, 11:04:17 AM »

Candidate update:

The Tories are running several former MP's in Atlantic Canada: Scott Armstrong (Cumberland-Colchester),  Rob Moore (Fundy-Royal), and John Williamson (New Brunswick Southwest). All three have a decent chance at reclaiming their seats.

They have also have a possible star candidate; Chris d'Entremont in West Nova. d'Entremont is the Tory MLA for Argyle-Barrington and is a former cabinet minister. West Nova should still go Liberal but d'Entremont could make it interesting.


oh god I read that as Roy Moore
Logged
MAINEiac4434
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,269
France


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #76 on: January 22, 2019, 04:41:14 PM »

Candidate update:

The Tories are running several former MP's in Atlantic Canada: Scott Armstrong (Cumberland-Colchester),  Rob Moore (Fundy-Royal), and John Williamson (New Brunswick Southwest). All three have a decent chance at reclaiming their seats.

They have also have a possible star candidate; Chris d'Entremont in West Nova. d'Entremont is the Tory MLA for Argyle-Barrington and is a former cabinet minister. West Nova should still go Liberal but d'Entremont could make it interesting.


Interesting, so is the NDP:

Andrew Cash in Davenport (defeated in 2015, a good fighting chance, still lean-LPC, but that's a strong candidate for the NDP)

Svend Robinson in Burnaby North-Seymour (did not run again in 2004, a good chance as well in a three way race)
Yasss
Logged
DC Al Fine
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,085
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #77 on: January 24, 2019, 10:03:19 AM »

Anyone know where the new Bloc leader is going to run?
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #78 on: January 24, 2019, 10:20:32 AM »

Going by what took place last few election cycles it seems most polls are fairly useless until the last 2-3 weeks before the election.  Is that because Canadians are more fickle or the nature of a 3 party system  manes that votes are more likely to be tactically minded and more likely to shift how they vote up until right before the election.   
Logged
the506
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 379
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #79 on: January 24, 2019, 08:59:35 PM »

Going by what took place last few election cycles it seems most polls are fairly useless until the last 2-3 weeks before the election.  Is that because Canadians are more fickle or the nature of a 3 party system  manes that votes are more likely to be tactically minded and more likely to shift how they vote up until right before the election.   

Both really.
Logged
lilTommy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,819


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #80 on: January 25, 2019, 08:18:10 AM »

Going by what took place last few election cycles it seems most polls are fairly useless until the last 2-3 weeks before the election.  Is that because Canadians are more fickle or the nature of a 3 party system  manes that votes are more likely to be tactically minded and more likely to shift how they vote up until right before the election.   

Both really.

Also remember, in some Provinces and Riding's it can be 4-way races if you include the BQ in Quebec and the Greens in BC and select individual riding's... 
Logged
Poirot
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,517
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #81 on: January 27, 2019, 09:08:41 PM »

Anyone know where the new Bloc leader is going to run?

He has said in the Montérégie region but not the specific riding.
There is one Bloc MP in the region and he's running again so Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet will not run in that one. PQ MNA Catherine Fournier was elected in the provincial riding of Marie-Victorin (part of Longueuil) and he could benefit from her help. Problem is that part of Longueuil is in the federal ridign Longueuil-Charles Lemoyne which includes not Bloc friendly part like Greenfield Park. Maybe it's more difficult to beat an incumbent Liberal MP so Blanchet is looking at the NDP held ridings (also targeted by Liberals).

It could be Longueuil-Saint-Hubert. Might wait to see if NDP MP is running and maybe who could be the Liberal candidate. Bloc finished third there but I think it's better to be parachuted in a more urban riding than rural (less territory to cover in campaign and usually less important to have a local figure). If Blanchet wants to avoid to face a Liberal MP, other possibilities are Salaberry-Suroit, Saint-Hyacinthe and Beloeil-Chambly. The first two have a regional city with many rural small towns so not ideal for someone from outside to land there in my opinion. 
Logged
Poirot
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,517
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #82 on: January 27, 2019, 11:11:33 PM »

The Quebec Premier has started a list of demands to federal parties ahead of the federal election.

Have a single income tax return for provincial and federal government managed by Quebec
$300 million in compensation for costs incurred by asylum seekers crossing the border
More power over the selection of immigrants
Funding for public transit projects
Compensation for dairy farmers hurt by the Nafta renegotiation

The filing of a single tax return managed by Quebec was a motion supported by all parties in the National assembly last year. Conservatives and Bloc are for it. NDP adopted it as policy last year but seem to have changed their mind and no longer support it, the Liberals look like they are against.

Scheer has presented five policies to appeal to Quebec:
More autonomy over immigration
Single income tax return
Name a Quebec minister in charge of the federal economic development agency for Quebec
Incentive for retirees to work
Invest to stop wastewater flowing in rivers

https://ipolitics.ca/2019/01/21/scheer-presents-first-wave-of-tories-quebec-centric-policies/   
Logged
136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #83 on: January 28, 2019, 12:03:55 AM »

The Quebec Premier has started a list of demands to federal parties ahead of the federal election.

Have a single income tax return for provincial and federal government managed by Quebec
$300 million in compensation for costs incurred by asylum seekers crossing the border
More power over the selection of immigrants
Funding for public transit projects
Compensation for dairy farmers hurt by the Nafta renegotiation

The filing of a single tax return managed by Quebec was a motion supported by all parties in the National assembly last year. Conservatives and Bloc are for it. NDP adopted it as policy last year but seem to have changed their mind and no longer support it, the Liberals look like they are against.

Scheer has presented five policies to appeal to Quebec:
More autonomy over immigration
Single income tax return
Name a Quebec minister in charge of the federal economic development agency for Quebec
Incentive for retirees to work
Invest to stop wastewater flowing in rivers

https://ipolitics.ca/2019/01/21/scheer-presents-first-wave-of-tories-quebec-centric-policies/   

Pandering.
Logged
Krago
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,081
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #84 on: January 28, 2019, 05:25:32 PM »

Anyone know where the new Bloc leader is going to run?

He has said in the Montérégie region but not the specific riding.
There is one Bloc MP in the region and he's running again so Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet will not run in that one. PQ MNA Catherine Fournier was elected in the provincial riding of Marie-Victorin (part of Longueuil) and he could benefit from her help. Problem is that part of Longueuil is in the federal ridign Longueuil-Charles Lemoyne which includes not Bloc friendly part like Greenfield Park. Maybe it's more difficult to beat an incumbent Liberal MP so Blanchet is looking at the NDP held ridings (also targeted by Liberals).

It could be Longueuil-Saint-Hubert. Might wait to see if NDP MP is running and maybe who could be the Liberal candidate. Bloc finished third there but I think it's better to be parachuted in a more urban riding than rural (less territory to cover in campaign and usually less important to have a local figure). If Blanchet wants to avoid to face a Liberal MP, other possibilities are Salaberry-Suroit, Saint-Hyacinthe and Beloeil-Chambly. The first two have a regional city with many rural small towns so not ideal for someone from outside to land there in my opinion. 

He's from Drummondville, and Drummond is currently represented by an NDP MP (Francois Choquette).  He represented Drummond in the National Assembly from 2008-2012, and then Johnson from 2012-2014.  My bet is that he will run there.
Logged
MaxQue
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,600
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #85 on: January 28, 2019, 05:35:19 PM »

Anyone know where the new Bloc leader is going to run?

He has said in the Montérégie region but not the specific riding.
There is one Bloc MP in the region and he's running again so Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet will not run in that one. PQ MNA Catherine Fournier was elected in the provincial riding of Marie-Victorin (part of Longueuil) and he could benefit from her help. Problem is that part of Longueuil is in the federal ridign Longueuil-Charles Lemoyne which includes not Bloc friendly part like Greenfield Park. Maybe it's more difficult to beat an incumbent Liberal MP so Blanchet is looking at the NDP held ridings (also targeted by Liberals).

It could be Longueuil-Saint-Hubert. Might wait to see if NDP MP is running and maybe who could be the Liberal candidate. Bloc finished third there but I think it's better to be parachuted in a more urban riding than rural (less territory to cover in campaign and usually less important to have a local figure). If Blanchet wants to avoid to face a Liberal MP, other possibilities are Salaberry-Suroit, Saint-Hyacinthe and Beloeil-Chambly. The first two have a regional city with many rural small towns so not ideal for someone from outside to land there in my opinion. 

He's from Drummondville, and Drummond is currently represented by an NDP MP (Francois Choquette).  He represented Drummond in the National Assembly from 2008-2012, and then Johnson from 2012-2014.  My bet is that he will run there.

https://www.journalexpress.ca/2019/01/28/leffet-yves-francois-blanchet-se-fait-sentir-dans-drummond/

Won't run in Drummond.
Logged
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,799
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #86 on: January 28, 2019, 06:22:58 PM »

Three former Liberal candidates are considering running for Tory nominations.  This will be interesting as no doubt the Tories can use this as proof the Liberals have abandoned the centre and swung too far to the left.  Might not amount to much, but probably something the Liberals would rather not have or at least they would probably like to get some former Tories to run under their banner in exchange to offset this.

David Bertschi (Liberal candidate 2011 in Ottawa-Orleans) running for Conservative nomination for Orleans.  He endorsed Erin O'Toole back in 2017 as CPC leader so already leaning that way.

Andrew Kania (Liberal MP Brampton West 2008-2011) endorses the Tories and is considering running for them in Brampton South.

Wendy Yuan (Liberal candidate Vancouver-Kingsway 2008 and 2011) running for Tory nomination in Steveston-Richmond East (interestingly enough Liberal MP Joe Peschisolido was first elected in 2000 as a Canadian Alliance MP and for Reform Party in both 1993 and a 1996 by-election so talk about swapping places).
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,724


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #87 on: January 28, 2019, 06:55:17 PM »

The Quebec Premier has started a list of demands to federal parties ahead of the federal election.

Have a single income tax return for provincial and federal government managed by Quebec
$300 million in compensation for costs incurred by asylum seekers crossing the border
More power over the selection of immigrants
Funding for public transit projects
Compensation for dairy farmers hurt by the Nafta renegotiation

The filing of a single tax return managed by Quebec was a motion supported by all parties in the National assembly last year. Conservatives and Bloc are for it. NDP adopted it as policy last year but seem to have changed their mind and no longer support it, the Liberals look like they are against.

Scheer has presented five policies to appeal to Quebec:
More autonomy over immigration
Single income tax return
Name a Quebec minister in charge of the federal economic development agency for Quebec
Incentive for retirees to work
Invest to stop wastewater flowing in rivers

https://ipolitics.ca/2019/01/21/scheer-presents-first-wave-of-tories-quebec-centric-policies/   

Pandering.

The path to an overall victory for the tories requires turning a good number of CAQ voters into Con voters, so...yeah they kinda have to pander.
Logged
136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #88 on: January 28, 2019, 11:56:51 PM »

Three former Liberal candidates are considering running for Tory nominations.  This will be interesting as no doubt the Tories can use this as proof the Liberals have abandoned the centre and swung too far to the left.  Might not amount to much, but probably something the Liberals would rather not have or at least they would probably like to get some former Tories to run under their banner in exchange to offset this.

David Bertschi (Liberal candidate 2011 in Ottawa-Orleans) running for Conservative nomination for Orleans.  He endorsed Erin O'Toole back in 2017 as CPC leader so already leaning that way.

Andrew Kania (Liberal MP Brampton West 2008-2011) endorses the Tories and is considering running for them in Brampton South.

Wendy Yuan (Liberal candidate Vancouver-Kingsway 2008 and 2011) running for Tory nomination in Steveston-Richmond East (interestingly enough Liberal MP Joe Peschisolido was first elected in 2000 as a Canadian Alliance MP and for Reform Party in both 1993 and a 1996 by-election so talk about swapping places).

Steveston-Richmond East is my riding. I'd consider voting for Wendy Yuan over Joe Peschisolido.
Logged
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,799
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #89 on: January 31, 2019, 03:39:55 PM »

Mainstreet is out today and now the first non-Nanos poll this year.  Liberals big lead in Quebec and Atlantic Canada, 6 points ahead in Ontario, while Tories slightly ahead in BC and massive lead in the Prairies.

Liberal 37.2%
Conservative 35.1%
NDP 11.5%
Green 7.2%
BQ 3.5%
PPC 4.2%


Interesting, Tories would have two point lead if PPC votes all went to them, but with such a small percentage I think will only matter if super close.
Logged
adma
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,718
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #90 on: January 31, 2019, 07:11:23 PM »

Interesting, Tories would have two point lead if PPC votes all went to them, but with such a small percentage I think will only matter if super close.

This might strike some as counterintuitive; but drawing from the Reform experience a quarter century ago, might PPC be stealing populist votes from the NDP as well?
Logged
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,799
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #91 on: January 31, 2019, 09:44:26 PM »

Interesting, Tories would have two point lead if PPC votes all went to them, but with such a small percentage I think will only matter if super close.

This might strike some as counterintuitive; but drawing from the Reform experience a quarter century ago, might PPC be stealing populist votes from the NDP as well?

Certainly possible.  In Europe, many of the right wing populists are gaining from traditional social democratic votes, in Toronto many of the strongest areas that voted for Rob Ford in 2010 and Doug Ford in 2014 are NDP/Liberal areas in the suburbs.   Likewise Trump won many traditional Democrat blue collar areas.  However with only 4% its such a small number that it is tough to really tell, it would need to be higher to get a clearer picture.
Logged
2952-0-0
exnaderite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,221


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #92 on: January 31, 2019, 10:30:38 PM »

Given Mainstreet's track record in recent years, perhaps we should take their numbers with a grain of salt.
Logged
136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #93 on: February 01, 2019, 01:19:41 AM »

Given Mainstreet's track record in recent years, perhaps we should take their numbers with a grain of salt.

True, but the numbers are very similar to the Nanos numbers.  The only real difference is that Bernier's party has more support.
Logged
DC Al Fine
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,085
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #94 on: February 01, 2019, 05:43:27 AM »

Interesting, Tories would have two point lead if PPC votes all went to them, but with such a small percentage I think will only matter if super close.

This might strike some as counterintuitive; but drawing from the Reform experience a quarter century ago, might PPC be stealing populist votes from the NDP as well?

Certainly possible.  In Europe, many of the right wing populists are gaining from traditional social democratic votes, in Toronto many of the strongest areas that voted for Rob Ford in 2010 and Doug Ford in 2014 are NDP/Liberal areas in the suburbs.   Likewise Trump won many traditional Democrat blue collar areas.  However with only 4% its such a small number that it is tough to really tell, it would need to be higher to get a clearer picture.

If (and that's a big if) they're polling over 1%, it probably depends on region. The People's Party is doing best in Alberta amd Quebec. Quebec, I can see, but I have a hard time imagining Bernier taking many votes from 2015 Alberta NDP supporters. His demographic there would be cranky Tories.
Logged
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,799
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #95 on: February 01, 2019, 10:01:25 PM »

MQO research is doing federal polls for each Atlantic province and so far for PEI has Liberals well in front at 52%, Tories in second at 30% while Greens at 10% and NDP at 7%.  That would seem to imply a Liberal sweep while the Tories are doing a lot better than 2015, still got a ways to go before winning seats there, but such shifts would be enough to win seats in New Brunswick.  I suspect Tories will win a few seats in New Brunswick, maybe Nova Scotia depending on how things go, but I don't expect them to win any seats in either PEI or Newfoundland & Labrador.
Logged
DabbingSanta
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,679
United States
P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #96 on: February 01, 2019, 11:20:21 PM »

Interesting, Tories would have two point lead if PPC votes all went to them, but with such a small percentage I think will only matter if super close.

This might strike some as counterintuitive; but drawing from the Reform experience a quarter century ago, might PPC be stealing populist votes from the NDP as well?

Certainly possible.  In Europe, many of the right wing populists are gaining from traditional social democratic votes, in Toronto many of the strongest areas that voted for Rob Ford in 2010 and Doug Ford in 2014 are NDP/Liberal areas in the suburbs.   Likewise Trump won many traditional Democrat blue collar areas.  However with only 4% its such a small number that it is tough to really tell, it would need to be higher to get a clearer picture.

If (and that's a big if) they're polling over 1%, it probably depends on region. The People's Party is doing best in Alberta amd Quebec. Quebec, I can see, but I have a hard time imagining Bernier taking many votes from 2015 Alberta NDP supporters. His demographic there would be cranky Tories.

I think there was a fair number of populist Bernie-Trump voters that many Dems refuse to acknowledge. This group quite possibly swung the election and tipped the Rust Belt. I don't see Bernier gaining the same traction (minor party), but he could gain support among libertarian leaning folks, myself included.
Logged
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,799
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #97 on: February 02, 2019, 05:45:44 PM »

Interesting, Tories would have two point lead if PPC votes all went to them, but with such a small percentage I think will only matter if super close.

This might strike some as counterintuitive; but drawing from the Reform experience a quarter century ago, might PPC be stealing populist votes from the NDP as well?

Certainly possible.  In Europe, many of the right wing populists are gaining from traditional social democratic votes, in Toronto many of the strongest areas that voted for Rob Ford in 2010 and Doug Ford in 2014 are NDP/Liberal areas in the suburbs.   Likewise Trump won many traditional Democrat blue collar areas.  However with only 4% its such a small number that it is tough to really tell, it would need to be higher to get a clearer picture.

If (and that's a big if) they're polling over 1%, it probably depends on region. The People's Party is doing best in Alberta amd Quebec. Quebec, I can see, but I have a hard time imagining Bernier taking many votes from 2015 Alberta NDP supporters. His demographic there would be cranky Tories.

I think there was a fair number of populist Bernie-Trump voters that many Dems refuse to acknowledge. This group quite possibly swung the election and tipped the Rust Belt. I don't see Bernier gaining the same traction (minor party), but he could gain support among libertarian leaning folks, myself included.

I think amongst libertarian leaning folks, it will come down to how close things are in the polls.  If it is clear the Liberals are going to be re-elected anyways, then many might decide to take a chance on him hoping a strong showing by the PPC would influence the Tories in policy and leader next time around.  While if close in the polls like now, I suspect most won't want to risk a vote split as most libertarians I know hate Trudeau with a passion and getting rid of him is more important than getting their ideal leader.
Logged
RogueBeaver
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,058
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #98 on: February 04, 2019, 07:51:11 AM »

Leger Quebec poll: 39/21/21/8/6. Grit gains, Dipper shutout and Bernier threatening to split the Quebec City vote.
Logged
DC Al Fine
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,085
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #99 on: February 06, 2019, 03:07:56 PM »

Leger Quebec poll: 39/21/21/8/6. Grit gains, Dipper shutout and Bernier threatening to split the Quebec City vote.

NDP at 8%?! Geez Louise.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 7 8 9 ... 91  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.056 seconds with 13 queries.