Canadian Election 2019

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm really proud of Jagmeet's response.  It definitely has the ability to turn around the campaign. It's unfortunate that this has to be reason for it.

Actually, I found the statement rather overwrought. Canada is, without question, the most tolerant, welcoming, and integrating place on earth. Canadians take a lot of pride in that fact, and a single truly stupid and insensitive photo cannot undo it. To pretend that a photo like this somehow makes Canada less tolerant is just absurd. And to pretend that Trudeau is like people who go around beating minorities up is even more absurd.

If that's what you got out of his response, there is something wrong with your comprehension skills.

And no, Canada is not "the most tolerant, welcoming and integrating place on earth". What a ridiculous thing to say.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm really proud of Jagmeet's response.  It definitely has the ability to turn around the campaign. It's unfortunate that this has to be reason for it.

Actually, I found the statement rather overwrought. Canada is, without question, the most tolerant, welcoming, and integrating place on earth. Canadians take a lot of pride in that fact, and a single truly stupid and insensitive photo cannot undo it. To pretend that a photo like this somehow makes Canada less tolerant is just absurd. And to pretend that Trudeau is like people who go around beating minorities up is even more absurd.

If that's what you got out of his response, there is something wrong with your comprehension skills.

And no, Canada is not "the most tolerant, welcoming and integrating place on earth". What a ridiculous thing to say.

The statement doesn't imply Canada is perfect on these issues, just that it's better than the rest of the world. Which countries do you consider to be more tolerant, welcoming and integrating than Canada?

I feel if I start naming countries, I will be quickly shot down because x,y,z. Why? Because I'm not an expert on other countries the way I am when it comes to my own. If only the non-Canadian posters in this thread had the same kind of judgement before making their pontifications about what they think Canada is.

Don't get me wrong, Canada is a great country, and I wouldn't want to live anywhere else. But, that doesn't mean we don't have problems in our society that the Trudeau Liberals are doing nothing about. It doesn't help that the only time the American/foreign media pays any attention to us, it's about Trudeau and how he wants to legalize weed or let in more refugees (which they haven't) or something along those lines, while paying no attention to any of the bad things. What makes things worse, is people in this country pay so much attention to American media, that they're unaware of these things too.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm really proud of Jagmeet's response.  It definitely has the ability to turn around the campaign. It's unfortunate that this has to be reason for it.

Actually, I found the statement rather overwrought. Canada is, without question, the most tolerant, welcoming, and integrating place on earth. Canadians take a lot of pride in that fact, and a single truly stupid and insensitive photo cannot undo it. To pretend that a photo like this somehow makes Canada less tolerant is just absurd. And to pretend that Trudeau is like people who go around beating minorities up is even more absurd.

If that's what you got out of his response, there is something wrong with your comprehension skills.

And no, Canada is not "the most tolerant, welcoming and integrating place on earth". What a ridiculous thing to say.

No, what I got out of Singh's response is that he really hopes to capitalize on this politically. And what I get out of your response is that you really hope that Singh capitalizes on it politically.

But I would love to hear which countrirs are more tolerant, better integrated, more welcoming of migrants, and have more politically correct cultural norms. Just because Singh (and you, apparently) know a racist dude doesn't make Canada any less liberal and open.

Uhh, I don't "know a racist dude". I'm a professional pollster who has done tonnes of polling on this subject. We have a lot of racism in this country. I'm not going to name "less racist" countries and I explained why in an earlier post. I'm not so arrogant to believe I can pontificate on how racist other countries are.

[Hatman 🍁]

Maybe the canadian media is diffrent, but how did 3(maybe more) documentations of black face fall under the radar for so long?

At least in the case of the 2001 yearbook photo, it seems like a collective brainfart. No one thought to look at the yearbooks of a teacher candidate. It's not just media, even opposition research was slow to get this. You can be sure that if the Harper Conservatives had this back in 2015, they would have leaked it then.

That would've risked handing the election to the NDP though. 2015 was a 'change' election, and progressive voters were going to back whichever party had the best change to kick the Tories out.

[Hatman 🍁]

I have the Wikipedia candidate list a quick skim to see which riding has the most candidates. Ottawa Centre appears to be the winner with a whopping twelve:

• All the major parties
• Two independents
• Animal Protection
• Christian Heritage
• Communist
• Libertarian
• National Citizens Alliance

That will make for an intreresting candidates debate.

Ottawa Centre always has interesting debates. Also fun (related?) fact: Ottawa Centre had the highest turnout of all ridings in 2015.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think if any impact of Black face, it forced Liberals to focus more on policies rather than gotcha moments.  If you look at since made several announcements of policies that would seem popular, although 3 of the 4 steal from other parties or are to counter others.  An assault weapons ban which is probably to trip up the Tories since either they support it and help the PPC split the right or as they have oppose it and they can attack them as being in the pockets of the gun lobby.  Most who feel civilians should be allowed to own these are already voting Tory so little downside and plenty up. 

Then there is the rise in basic personal exemption so I think that was in response to Scheer's universal tax cut which was more progressive and helped middle class more than Trudeau's 2015 middle class tax cut, so this was a way to regain the upper hand on being the party for middle class and those wishing to join it.  Also promise lower cell phone bills and now pharmacare which are also taken right from the NDP.

Biggest weakness is their policies unlike Tories and NDP haven't been fully costed and that leaves them somewhat vulnerable there.  Not on left flank as I don't think those on left are too concerned about higher taxes (since assume it will only hit higher income earners who they want to tax more) or deficits, but amongst centrist voters may concern some if it becomes a focal point.  I think Wynne and Horwarth fell short as people liked their promises, but felt they were unaffordable.  People aren't allergic to deficits, but they like to see some fiscal anchor even if not a balanced budget to show governments not spending like crazy.  Also for tax hikes on rich, PBO website shows only $400 million increase per % so unless they go after top three brackets, not just top, very little revenue to tap there.  Perhaps though copying from NDP, they will include a wealth tax and raise capital gains tax inclusion to 2/3 or 75% as both those would bring in far more revenue although still not quite enough to cover all promises, but at least a lot closer. 

Link? That data sounds interesting.

I have the Wikipedia candidate list a quick skim to see which riding has the most candidates. Ottawa Centre appears to be the winner with a whopping twelve:

• All the major parties
• Two independents
• Animal Protection
• Christian Heritage
• Communist
• Libertarian
• National Citizens Alliance

That will make for an intreresting candidates debate.

Ottawa Centre always has interesting debates. Also fun (related?) fact: Ottawa Centre had the highest turnout of all ridings in 2015.

Any good stories come to mind?

I seem to recall some candidate shenanigans in the past, but nothing specific comes to mind. I've only been to one myself. and all I can remember about it is Marijuana Party candidate standing out.

Things are much more boring in Ottawa South.

[Hatman 🍁]

So... is voting for People's Party just a wasted vote?

Considering how rare it is for a riding to be tied or decided by one vote, the no, it's not. Vote your conscience. Now if your conscience is telling you to vote for the PPC, that's a different story.

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting poll of native Canadians:

Con: 26%
Lib: 21
NDP: 17
Green: 16


n= "1,024 people self-identifying as First Nations, Inuit or Métis"

https://aptnnews.ca/2019/10/02/vote2019-climate-change-and-drinking-water-top-indigenous-issues-in-federal-election/

This sample must be heavily non-reserve, as reserves vote monolithically 90% Liberal or NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, if there's one NDP candidate who will punch above their weight, it's REB. This is fantastic news!

It really does put into doubt some of the riding polling that we've seen. Candidate names change things a lot. Case in point: Our polling for the debate commission vs. our internal numbers.

I'm sure lots of people in her riding don't really think of themselves as "voting NDP" and don't select that option when answering a survey without candidate names.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, if there's one NDP candidate who will punch above their weight, it's REB. This is fantastic news!

It really does put into doubt some of the riding polling that we've seen. Candidate names change things a lot. Case in point: Our polling for the debate commission vs. our internal numbers.

I'm sure lots of people in her riding don't really think of themselves as "voting NDP" and don't select that option when answering a survey without candidate names.

Also ND signs in Quebec have a tiny NDP logo (and an even tinier "Jagmeet Singh" mention). In some ridings, NDP signs are not orange either.

What colour are they?

[Hatman 🍁]

Candidate count (by myself, may contain mistakes):
Liberal 338
Conservative 338
NDP 338
Green 338
PPC 315
Independents 125
Bloc Québécois 78
Christian Heritage 51
Marxist Leninist 50
Rhinoceros 39
Communist 30
Veterans Coalition 25
Libertarian 24
Animal Protection 17
Parti pour l’indépendance du Québec 13
Fourth Front 7
Marijuana 4
United 4
National Citizens Alliance 4
Progressive 3
Nationalist Party 3
Stop Climate Change 2

Ridings with the most candidates (11):
Papineau
Ottawa Centre

Ridings with the least candidates (4):
Avalon
Bonavista-Burin-Trinity
Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame
Labrador
St John's East
Egmont
Malpeque
Halifax West
Acadie-Bathurst
Madawaska-Restigouche
York Centre
Nunavut

Hmm I wonder what happened to the Libertarians. They had the largest fringe slate last time. Christian Heritage seems to have recovered from their worst ever candidate figures in 2015.

I'd imagine most Libertarians are supporting Bernier now.

[Hatman 🍁]

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

Yeah tactical voting looks like it'll squeeze the NDP again. It's tragic how they lost in 2015, I wish Mulcair had won that election and the NDP was the major party of the left.

My riding is strictly red or blue most of the time, but in that 2015 election it was really looking like the NDP had a shot. I will sadly be tactical voting myself this time, against Scheer's Conservatives. In my riding the best way to.do so is to vote Liberal. The stakes are too high with the climate crisis for me to spend my vote virtue signalling that I support the NDP in a riding where they will not win (this time).

If the polls start massively shifting away from Trudeau and towards Singh, I will vote NDP. It looks like that won't be happening though.

You do realize, your vote isn't going to be the deciding vote in this election, right?

Tactical voting on the level of the individual makes no logical sense.

[Hatman 🍁]

Re: Singh's leadership: The media is going to be relentless in saying that he should go if the NDP does poorly. I mean, they were awful to poor Andrea after the 2014 provincial election despite actually gaining seats from 2011.

[Hatman 🍁]

Of course, if there's a minority government, this will complicate matters even more. Even with a small caucus, the party will play a more important role in Parliament, and won't want to be bogged down by another leadership race. One big reason why Jack got more and more popular was because of the party's leverage they held during the endless minority governments between 2004-2011. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Please, Americans, keep your deranged two-party system mindsets out of this thread. Thnx.  

[Hatman 🍁]

Re: Singh's leadership: The media is going to be relentless in saying that he should go if the NDP does poorly. I mean, they were awful to poor Andrea after the 2014 provincial election despite actually gaining seats from 2011.

Yet there was zero pressure on Howard Hampton to be dumped as ONDP leader after abysmal results in 1999, 2003 and 2007. The flak that Horwath got in 2014 was less about the result of the election than about the fact that she ran an awful campaign and people saw it as a missed opportunity...though she still got an 80% vote of confidence at the subsequent ONDP convention.

The media can say what they want - NDP delegates would have to vote to have a new leadership context whenever the next NDP convention is - likely Fall of 2020 and i think its highly unlikely they would vote to have another contest no matter what the result is of the election. 

I can see some parallels to the 1999 election actually. The NDP did comparatively well in 1995 thanks to the coattails of government/incumbency, which went away in 1999. (Much like the NDP's result in 2015 was historically good because of incumbents from the class of 2011) Despite the party doing terrible in 1999, Hampton stuck around.   

[Hatman 🍁]

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

Yeah tactical voting looks like it'll squeeze the NDP again. It's tragic how they lost in 2015, I wish Mulcair had won that election and the NDP was the major party of the left.

My riding is strictly red or blue most of the time, but in that 2015 election it was really looking like the NDP had a shot. I will sadly be tactical voting myself this time, against Scheer's Conservatives. In my riding the best way to.do so is to vote Liberal. The stakes are too high with the climate crisis for me to spend my vote virtue signalling that I support the NDP in a riding where they will not win (this time).

If the polls start massively shifting away from Trudeau and towards Singh, I will vote NDP. It looks like that won't be happening though.

You do realize, your vote isn't going to be the deciding vote in this election, right?

Tactical voting on the level of the individual makes no logical sense.

(1) You have no idea which riding I am in or just how close the polls or results will be between Scheer and Trudeau in my riding. You DON'T KNOW one vote won't count. Ignorant post.

(2) If you haven't figured out, there are likely hundreds or maybe even a thousand plus people in my riding with politics like mine making these same calculations. If we all vote strategically or if none of us vote strategically, it can have a big impact in my riding. Your "one vote doesn't count" argument is a flawed way of thinking. If all of us took your advice and just voted for our preferred party regardless of the situation, we alone as a group could cause a Conservative MP for this riding. Which could be the one MP needed to put Scheer over 50%, or the one MP the Liberal-NDP coalition needed to exceed 50% but now they need to negotiate with the Greens as well to form a government.

(1) Doesn't matter what riding you live in. The chance that your vote will be the deciding vote is negligible. You'd have a better chance getting in a car accident on you way to vote. I've studied elections for a long time. I can count on one hand how many elections have been decided by one vote at all levels of government.

(2) An individual vote is an individual vote. A group of people does not equal a monolithic vote group.

If people like you did vote for who they really wanted instead of stopping who they didn't want, the Liberals would tack left to try and get your votes. If you just vote for them anyway, they don't have to make that shift electorally. If no one votes NDP or Green, then there's no incentive for the Liberals to tack left at all.

And I get it, if everyone like you voted their conscience, maybe the Tories would win. Perhaps that would make for a good punishment for Trudeau for abandoning his electoral reform promise. If he went ahead with his promise, we wouldn't be having this argument.

If you can feel comfortable voting for the Liberals, then that's your prerogative. But do not delude yourself in believing you will have the deciding vote. I can guarantee that will not be the case.

[Hatman 🍁]

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

Yeah tactical voting looks like it'll squeeze the NDP again. It's tragic how they lost in 2015, I wish Mulcair had won that election and the NDP was the major party of the left.

My riding is strictly red or blue most of the time, but in that 2015 election it was really looking like the NDP had a shot. I will sadly be tactical voting myself this time, against Scheer's Conservatives. In my riding the best way to.do so is to vote Liberal. The stakes are too high with the climate crisis for me to spend my vote virtue signalling that I support the NDP in a riding where they will not win (this time).

If the polls start massively shifting away from Trudeau and towards Singh, I will vote NDP. It looks like that won't be happening though.

You do realize, your vote isn't going to be the deciding vote in this election, right?

Tactical voting on the level of the individual makes no logical sense.

(1) You have no idea which riding I am in or just how close the polls or results will be between Scheer and Trudeau in my riding. You DON'T KNOW one vote won't count. Ignorant post.

Tell you what Tchenka. Why don't you tell us your riding, and if your vote actually is the deciding one, Hatman and I will buy you a case of beer. This isn't a PEI village council election so I feel comfortable making that bet.

A case of beer? I will buy him a life's supply of beer if that happens to be the case.

[Hatman 🍁]

The smaller the constituency, the more likely there will be a tie/one vote margin. That's basic math.

In federal election history, there have been three ties (last was in 1963, when ridings had much fewer people). We've also had 9 races decided by 1 vote, but the last one was in 1930. Most of these cases were in the 19th century when only White men with property could vote, and there were no secret ballots.

The last time there was a tie provincially was in 2015 on PEI. But that was PEI, where the ridings are the size of a small neighbourhood.

There are lots of examples in municipal elections too.

[Hatman 🍁]

Jagmeet has done an amazing job turning his approvals around. Not too long ago he had a net disapproval, which is rare for an NDP leader, and was very discouraging. But now, we're seeing the guy that was able to win the leadership in the first place.

[Hatman 🍁]

The thing is, the "non-Liberal/Cons" vote is fractured evenly between the NDP and Greens, which should theoretically make winning  a majority easier. But an increase in Bloc seats makes it harder.

[Hatman 🍁]

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

Yeah tactical voting looks like it'll squeeze the NDP again. It's tragic how they lost in 2015, I wish Mulcair had won that election and the NDP was the major party of the left.

My riding is strictly red or blue most of the time, but in that 2015 election it was really looking like the NDP had a shot. I will sadly be tactical voting myself this time, against Scheer's Conservatives. In my riding the best way to.do so is to vote Liberal. The stakes are too high with the climate crisis for me to spend my vote virtue signalling that I support the NDP in a riding where they will not win (this time).

If the polls start massively shifting away from Trudeau and towards Singh, I will vote NDP. It looks like that won't be happening though.

You do realize, your vote isn't going to be the deciding vote in this election, right?

Tactical voting on the level of the individual makes no logical sense.

(1) You have no idea which riding I am in or just how close the polls or results will be between Scheer and Trudeau in my riding. You DON'T KNOW one vote won't count. Ignorant post.

(2) If you haven't figured out, there are likely hundreds or maybe even a thousand plus people in my riding with politics like mine making these same calculations. If we all vote strategically or if none of us vote strategically, it can have a big impact in my riding. Your "one vote doesn't count" argument is a flawed way of thinking. If all of us took your advice and just voted for our preferred party regardless of the situation, we alone as a group could cause a Conservative MP for this riding. Which could be the one MP needed to put Scheer over 50%, or the one MP the Liberal-NDP coalition needed to exceed 50% but now they need to negotiate with the Greens as well to form a government.

(1) Doesn't matter what riding you live in. The chance that your vote will be the deciding vote is negligible. You'd have a better chance getting in a car accident on you way to vote. I've studied elections for a long time. I can count on one hand how many elections have been decided by one vote at all levels of government.

(2) An individual vote is an individual vote. A group of people does not equal a monolithic vote group.

If people like you did vote for who they really wanted instead of stopping who they didn't want, the Liberals would tack left to try and get your votes. If you just vote for them anyway, they don't have to make that shift electorally. If no one votes NDP or Green, then there's no incentive for the Liberals to tack left at all.

And I get it, if everyone like you voted their conscience, maybe the Tories would win. Perhaps that would make for a good punishment for Trudeau for abandoning his electoral reform promise. If he went ahead with his promise, we wouldn't be having this argument.

If you can feel comfortable voting for the Liberals, then that's your prerogative. But do not delude yourself in believing you will have the deciding vote. I can guarantee that will not be the case.

The relationship many progressives have with the Liberals borders on a protection racket. They have single handedly eliminated the one policy that would allow for a progressive alternative to the Liberals and Tories, and then have the chutzpah to play up fear of a Tory government if progressives don't forgive their myriad of sins against progressive politics.

Thus, we see progressives voting for Justin the Blackface Pipeline Mogul to defend against Tory racism or climate inaction or something. It's surreal. I genuinely pity the NDP/Greens and their supporters for having to put up with this nonsense.

I tend to agree with a lot of your points here. The problem is that I see this as a high-stakes election where a Scheer government outcome is unacceptable. At this particular point in time, I feel preventing the worst-case scenario is more important than advocating for my beliefs. Normally in most elections, I would (and do) vote NDP.

If I was an American, I would be voting for Biden over Trump if it came down to it, even if Bernie was hypoethetically  running third party but also in this scenario had no path to actually winning the presidency. Sometimes the stakes are just too high to not be tactical and practical IMO.

https://www.thebeaverton.com/2014/06/staunch-new-democrat-to-vote-liberal-again/

That's both funny and sad. Tbat said, I only vote tactically in elections I feel very strongly that a Party must be defeated at all costs. This will be my first time actually, excluding municipal-level voting.

I've voted Layton, Layton, Mulcair and now Trudeau in the last four elections. In provincial elections I've voted Hampton, Horwath and most recently Horwath.

So, you think Scheer is scarier than Harper?

A lot of progressives voted Liberal in 2015 to give the boot to Harper, but you didn't.

I don't think Scheer is worse than Harper. Perhaps he is "just as bad", but not worse.

[Hatman 🍁]

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

Yeah tactical voting looks like it'll squeeze the NDP again. It's tragic how they lost in 2015, I wish Mulcair had won that election and the NDP was the major party of the left.

My riding is strictly red or blue most of the time, but in that 2015 election it was really looking like the NDP had a shot. I will sadly be tactical voting myself this time, against Scheer's Conservatives. In my riding the best way to.do so is to vote Liberal. The stakes are too high with the climate crisis for me to spend my vote virtue signalling that I support the NDP in a riding where they will not win (this time).

If the polls start massively shifting away from Trudeau and towards Singh, I will vote NDP. It looks like that won't be happening though.

You do realize, your vote isn't going to be the deciding vote in this election, right?

Tactical voting on the level of the individual makes no logical sense.

(1) You have no idea which riding I am in or just how close the polls or results will be between Scheer and Trudeau in my riding. You DON'T KNOW one vote won't count. Ignorant post.

(2) If you haven't figured out, there are likely hundreds or maybe even a thousand plus people in my riding with politics like mine making these same calculations. If we all vote strategically or if none of us vote strategically, it can have a big impact in my riding. Your "one vote doesn't count" argument is a flawed way of thinking. If all of us took your advice and just voted for our preferred party regardless of the situation, we alone as a group could cause a Conservative MP for this riding. Which could be the one MP needed to put Scheer over 50%, or the one MP the Liberal-NDP coalition needed to exceed 50% but now they need to negotiate with the Greens as well to form a government.

(1) Doesn't matter what riding you live in. The chance that your vote will be the deciding vote is negligible. You'd have a better chance getting in a car accident on you way to vote. I've studied elections for a long time. I can count on one hand how many elections have been decided by one vote at all levels of government.

(2) An individual vote is an individual vote. A group of people does not equal a monolithic vote group.

If people like you did vote for who they really wanted instead of stopping who they didn't want, the Liberals would tack left to try and get your votes. If you just vote for them anyway, they don't have to make that shift electorally. If no one votes NDP or Green, then there's no incentive for the Liberals to tack left at all.

And I get it, if everyone like you voted their conscience, maybe the Tories would win. Perhaps that would make for a good punishment for Trudeau for abandoning his electoral reform promise. If he went ahead with his promise, we wouldn't be having this argument.

If you can feel comfortable voting for the Liberals, then that's your prerogative. But do not delude yourself in believing you will have the deciding vote. I can guarantee that will not be the case.

The relationship many progressives have with the Liberals borders on a protection racket. They have single handedly eliminated the one policy that would allow for a progressive alternative to the Liberals and Tories, and then have the chutzpah to play up fear of a Tory government if progressives don't forgive their myriad of sins against progressive politics.

Thus, we see progressives voting for Justin the Blackface Pipeline Mogul to defend against Tory racism or climate inaction or something. It's surreal. I genuinely pity the NDP/Greens and their supporters for having to put up with this nonsense.

I tend to agree with a lot of your points here. The problem is that I see this as a high-stakes election where a Scheer government outcome is unacceptable. At this particular point in time, I feel preventing the worst-case scenario is more important than advocating for my beliefs. Normally in most elections, I would (and do) vote NDP.

If I was an American, I would be voting for Biden over Trump if it came down to it, even if Bernie was hypoethetically  running third party but also in this scenario had no path to actually winning the presidency. Sometimes the stakes are just too high to not be tactical and practical IMO.

https://www.thebeaverton.com/2014/06/staunch-new-democrat-to-vote-liberal-again/

That's both funny and sad. Tbat said, I only vote tactically in elections I feel very strongly that a Party must be defeated at all costs. This will be my first time actually, excluding municipal-level voting.

I've voted Layton, Layton, Mulcair and now Trudeau in the last four elections. In provincial elections I've voted Hampton, Horwath and most recently Horwath.

So, you think Scheer is scarier than Harper?

A lot of progressives voted Liberal in 2015 to give the boot to Harper, but you didn't.

I don't think Scheer is worse than Harper. Perhaps he is "just as bad", but not worse.

No I don't necessarily think that. You're ignoring the unique context of each individual election. Where we are with the climate crisis right now is not where we were 2 elections ago, and the last election it was looking a little less drastic and looked a lot like Harper was going to lose regardless of who I voted for.

I'm still confused. I agree the climate crisis has become worse, but the Liberals haven't done much on this. They're all talk, no action. Granted, Scheer will be worse, but neither will really do anything to help the climate. Drastic change needs to happen, and the Liberals aren't going to do anything drastic. They are far too pro-business. 

[Hatman 🍁]

[snip]

So, you think Scheer is scarier than Harper?

A lot of progressives voted Liberal in 2015 to give the boot to Harper, but you didn't.

I don't think Scheer is worse than Harper. Perhaps he is "just as bad", but not worse.

I'd consider Harper 'worse' than Scheer if only for the fact that I don't think Scheer is terribly capable, whereas Harper had the ability to get (awful) things done. Thankfully, he didn't end up accomplishing much in the way of lasting right wing policies.

fwiw, had I been able to vote in 2015 I probably would have voted Liberal. The local MP for where I would have voted (David McGuinty - Ottawa South) was a sensible and conscientious sort of politician, so I wouldn't have minded him in office even if we disagreed on some points. Also, in 2015 I much preferred Trudeau's pitch and leadership style to Mulcair's, who I thought really failed to rise to the occasion.

This time, however, with my restored emigrant voting right, I'm almost certain to vote NDP. The candidate in Ottawa South isn't crazy (have had to deal with highly unimpressive NDP candidates in Ottawa South before!), and I'm comfortable tacitly un-endorsing Trudeau, mostly because of a lack of real change/progress rather than distaste with what he did. I won't mind if he gets reelected, but I think his premiership would benefit from more leftwing input at the policymaking level. Fingers crossed

Morgan's a great candidate. I'm seeing his signs on lawns I've never seen signs on before (except in the 2018 provincial election), even when the NDP was polling in single digits.  The 2018 election proved the NDP can be competitive in Ottawa South.

[Hatman 🍁]

Voted Tory in the advance poll yesterday.

I toyed with voting People's or spoiling my ballot, but my ultimately decided that Scheer and my local candidate were better fits for my views.

You didn't wait until election day? Don't you want to see your vote contribute to the maps?