2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Virginiá]

Maybe it just wishful thinking, but this election feels like a larger scale of what happened here in VA last November.

tbf, if that is the case, this result would be unthinkable. Virginia 2017's results basically amounted to a cleansing of Republicans in Clinton districts only, with one or two marginal Trump seat wins.

[Oryxslayer]

Maybe it just wishful thinking, but this election feels like a larger scale of what happened here in VA last November.

tbf, if that is the case, this result would be unthinkable. Virginia 2017's results basically amounted to a cleansing of Republicans in Clinton districts only, with one or two marginal Trump seat wins.

The better interpretation is that Dems targeted only w handful of Clinton seats, but then a wave came along and pushed them all the way to the gates of the likely R catergory. National Dems certainly haven't been targeting as narrowly as the VA Dems did, it's why the Pubs are having to play defense in all these likely R seats against the mountain of Dem cash.

[wbrocks67]

Hmm, well the PA-11 poll only has a sample size of 311.

That is super-small and VERY noisy. So it is most likely a substantial outlier.

*Bubble bopping*

Not really. PA-11 is a pretty small district.

Not to mention when Monmouth does their LV models, it's usually like 350-400-ish

[Yank2133]

Maybe it just wishful thinking, but this election feels like a larger scale of what happened here in VA last November.

tbf, if that is the case, this result would be unthinkable. Virginia 2017's results basically amounted to a cleansing of Republicans in Clinton districts only, with one or two marginal Trump seat wins.

The better interpretation is that Dems targeted only w handful of Clinton seats, but then a wave came along and pushed them all the way to the gates of the likely R catergory. National Dems certainly haven't been targeting as narrowly as the VA Dems did, it's why the Pubs are having to play defense in all these likely R seats against the mountain of Dem cash.

Yeah, this is what I was getting it.

National Democrats have done a better job expanding the map. But like VA, there are going to be some results that makes us say “holy ****”.

[Virginiá]

^^ fair point!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Maybe it just wishful thinking, but this election feels like a larger scale of what happened here in VA last November.

tbf, if that is the case, this result would be unthinkable. Virginia 2017's results basically amounted to a cleansing of Republicans in Clinton districts only, with one or two marginal Trump seat wins.

The better interpretation is that Dems targeted only w handful of Clinton seats, but then a wave came along and pushed them all the way to the gates of the likely R catergory. National Dems certainly haven't been targeting as narrowly as the VA Dems did, it's why the Pubs are having to play defense in all these likely R seats against the mountain of Dem cash.

Yeah, this is what I was getting it.

National Democrats have done a better job expanding the map. But like VA, there are going to be some results that makes us say “holy ****”.

Districts like PA-11 and NY-27 come to mind.

[Brittain33]

Hmm, well the PA-11 poll only has a sample size of 311.

That is super-small and VERY noisy. So it is most likely a substantial outlier.

This is a R+14 district. Pennsylvania seems to have serious buyer's remorse about Trump (look at PA-7 not being close) but even so, this seems like quite an outlier.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Wow, I think this one could be a unexpectedly closer (but not close) race. Obviously safe D, but I think Cavasso could breach 40%, I have been following him and his campaign and this one interview was particularly good, he is really a solid recruit for the GOP, just the wrong year, in a slightly too blue district.

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2018/10/11/coffee-with-candidate-republican-candidate-congress-cam-cavasso/

[ON Progressive]

Wow, I think this one could be a unexpectedly closer (but not close) race. Obviously safe D, but I think Cavasso could breach 40%, I have been following him and his campaign and this one interview was particularly good, he is really a solid recruit for the GOP, just the wrong year, in a slightly too blue district.

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2018/10/11/coffee-with-candidate-republican-candidate-congress-cam-cavasso/

This post is peak Atlas. Just having a good interview that the vast majority of the district won't even see doesn't mean you'll break 40%.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Wow, I think this one could be a unexpectedly closer (but not close) race. Obviously safe D, but I think Cavasso could breach 40%, I have been following him and his campaign and this one interview was particularly good, he is really a solid recruit for the GOP, just the wrong year, in a slightly too blue district.

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2018/10/11/coffee-with-candidate-republican-candidate-congress-cam-cavasso/

This post is peak Atlas. Just having a good interview that the vast majority of the district won't even see doesn't mean you'll break 40%.

Well he also has some great ads:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tv9YTydHBeo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVIWD-D2yog

AND democrats with testimonials voting for him

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1FcCh05aAic

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g5JJOu9gRv8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vxr6gWj_bVk

My favorite:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3t1CEyQ9pm0

And you never know, he might win one of these days

https://www.civilbeat.org/2018/10/why-gop-congressional-candidate-cam-cavasso-wont-quit-running/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Get out the Nuclear Elmos everybody. This is a big one.

PA-11 (Susquehanna):
Lloyd Smucker (R) 50
Jess King (D) 46

https://www.abc27.com/news/politics/election/poll-us-rep-smucker-holds-narrow-lead-over-democrat-king/1562382601

LAWD. It would be like Christmas day if both PA-10 and PA-11 were Dem pickups.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say the Pittsburgh tragedy is going to uniquely impact Pennsylvania in a surprising way. Especially since the bottom has already fallen out of both republican statewide campaigns.

That makes a whole lot of sense.

[Brittain33]

Get out the Nuclear Elmos everybody. This is a big one.

PA-11 (Susquehanna):
Lloyd Smucker (R) 50
Jess King (D) 46

https://www.abc27.com/news/politics/election/poll-us-rep-smucker-holds-narrow-lead-over-democrat-king/1562382601

LAWD. It would be like Christmas day if both PA-10 and PA-11 were Dem pickups.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say the Pittsburgh tragedy is going to uniquely impact Pennsylvania in a surprising way. Especially since the bottom has already fallen out of both republican statewide campaigns.

That makes a whole lot of sense.

However, this poll wrapped more than one week ago (Oct. 21-22), so it was unaffected by the shooting.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Get out the Nuclear Elmos everybody. This is a big one.

PA-11 (Susquehanna):
Lloyd Smucker (R) 50
Jess King (D) 46

https://www.abc27.com/news/politics/election/poll-us-rep-smucker-holds-narrow-lead-over-democrat-king/1562382601

LAWD. It would be like Christmas day if both PA-10 and PA-11 were Dem pickups.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say the Pittsburgh tragedy is going to uniquely impact Pennsylvania in a surprising way. Especially since the bottom has already fallen out of both republican statewide campaigns.

That makes a whole lot of sense.

However, this poll wrapped more than one week ago (Oct. 21-22), so it was unaffected by the shooting.

It doesn't help that we haven't gotten a poll in PA for over a month.

[IceSpear]

Get out the Nuclear Elmos everybody. This is a big one.

PA-11 (Susquehanna):
Lloyd Smucker (R) 50
Jess King (D) 46

https://www.abc27.com/news/politics/election/poll-us-rep-smucker-holds-narrow-lead-over-democrat-king/1562382601

If this is even remotely accurate, it's gonna be an ugly night for the GOP.

[junior chįmp]

Get out the Nuclear Elmos everybody. This is a big one.

PA-11 (Susquehanna):
Lloyd Smucker (R) 50
Jess King (D) 46

https://www.abc27.com/news/politics/election/poll-us-rep-smucker-holds-narrow-lead-over-democrat-king/1562382601

If this is even remotely accurate, it's gonna be an ugly night for the GOP.

Bruh....they are gonna get destroyed next week. Far worse than the polling and models indicate

[IceSpear]

RED ALERT! FAKE POLLING COMPANY JAYHAWK CONSULTING IS BACK!

I have a history with these guys. They released a KS-01 poll in late 2014 showing Huelskamp (R) losing by 7 points. He ended up winning by 36 points, an astounding 43 point miss. You'd think this obviously fake polling company would slink away with their tail between their legs after this...and it seems they did for a while. But now they're back. In KS-01 again. And you'll never guess what their "poll" showed!

Marshall (R) 42
LaPolice (D) 38

http://www.hutchnews.com/news/20181030/polling-done-for-becker-in-marshall-lapolice-race

And here's the original thread from 2014:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=201476.0

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

If Jess King wins that would be the icing on the cake! Unlikely, but still hoping!

[Antonio the Sixth]

The 538 GCB tracker, updated to today:


Lots of weird zig-zagging this week, with a dearth of high-quality polls and an unfortunate sensitivity to massive outliers like the USC poll or questionable trackers like Harris and Ipsos. Overall it ends up a wash, but I'm a lot less confident in today's 8.5 than I was in the 8.6 from a week ago.

Here's hoping some good poll comes out soon to give us a new baseline.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Here's hoping some good poll comes out soon to give us a new baseline.

Over the next few days we SHOULD get a flood of 10+ GCB polls from all the quality GCB pollsters, all getting in their last poll before the election.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Here's hoping some good poll comes out soon to give us a new baseline.

Over the next few days we SHOULD get a flood of 10+ GCB polls from all the quality GCB pollsters, all getting in their last poll before the election.

I really hope you're right.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Over the next few days we SHOULD get a flood of 10+ GCB polls from all the quality GCB pollsters, all getting in their last poll before the election.

I really hope you're right.

We SHOULD get at least most of these (unless some of them don't do final polls, but if you are going to poll earlier on when people care much less, you would think you would do a final poll):

NBC/WSJ
FOX
CBS
CNN
ABC/WaPo
IBD/TIPP
AP/GfK (or are they still doing polls?)
Pew
Quinnipiac
Emerson
Bloomberg/Selzer

And we already have what are presumably last polls from:

Marist
Suffolk
PRRI

[Tender Branson]

NC (SurveyUSA) has it D+4 in the GCB:

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48-44-2 D/R/I

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http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d095bb31-8110-4a7d-8fea-571bf017360f&c=294

[Tender Branson]

NC (SurveyUSA) has it D+4 in the GCB.

D+4 in NC means something like D+10 or D+11 nationally, right ?

[Tender Branson]

NC (SurveyUSA) has it D+4 in the GCB.

D+4 in NC means something like D+10 or D+11 nationally, right ?

In 2016, the US House vote in NC was 53.5-46.5 R btw ...

It was R+1 nationally.

That's a swing of 11 points to the Dems.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I expect that NC will swing more than the nation as whole.


NC-09 is basically gone and I don't think it will be close. Also keep an eye on NC-13, it could get interesting.