IN-Mason Strategies: Braun +4
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  IN-Mason Strategies: Braun +4
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Author Topic: IN-Mason Strategies: Braun +4  (Read 8856 times)
Skye
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« on: October 23, 2018, 07:28:47 AM »



http://indypolitics.org/braun-has-slight-lead-as-campaign-enters-home-stretch/

I don't think I've heard of this pollster before.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2018, 07:33:22 AM »

Seems at least that the recurring them in a lot of these Senate races is Dems having rather large margins with Indies.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2018, 07:35:49 AM »

Oof. Not good. I've never heard of this pollster, but can't be a good sign.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2018, 07:41:07 AM »

Aside from GOP locking up ND, Dems are close enough in these type of races to win. If the wave is big enough. Just like in MO, Hawley has a small lead
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2018, 07:47:27 AM »

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Zaybay
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« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2018, 07:48:39 AM »

Practically an R internal.
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Skye
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« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2018, 07:49:29 AM »


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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2018, 07:52:19 AM »

Okay so same as the other internal
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2018, 07:52:33 AM »

what is with this trend of polling groups no one has heard of popping up?
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #9 on: October 23, 2018, 07:55:15 AM »
« Edited: October 23, 2018, 08:06:54 AM by TheRocketRaccoon »




Still a conservative pollster

https://bearingdrift.com/2016/11/11/spiker-polls-werent-wrong-read-wrongly/

https://www.linkedin.com/in/stephen-spiker-a9507527/
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #10 on: October 23, 2018, 07:57:21 AM »

So an R internal has Braun only up 4.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #11 on: October 23, 2018, 08:15:54 AM »

So a unknown polling firm coincidentally has the same name as a well-known GOP fundraiser.

Sounds legit.

Regardless, this race is still a toss-up at best for Donnelly and Braun could easily win.  But I do think Donnelly wins in more scenarios than Braun does.  My main reasoning on that is Indiana swung hard R with the Midwest in 2016, and seeing all of the hard D swings in PA/MI/MN/WI/OH/IA/IL/etc... I have a hard time believing that that swing will miss Indiana.  The issue is just that Indiana is much more R than those states and thus it might not be enough to save Donnelly.

Good analysis. I think Donnelly is slightly favored as of today - but I think this race is a tossup
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #12 on: October 23, 2018, 08:16:40 AM »

Tilt R
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Senator Incitatus
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« Reply #13 on: October 23, 2018, 08:50:06 AM »




I have seen this Don Matthews account spreading a bunch of weirdly stupid conspiracy theories around polling for the last week.
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I Can Now Die Happy
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« Reply #14 on: October 23, 2018, 08:54:58 AM »

Well guys, one thing to remember from 2016 is that these R Internal polls can be more accurate than the "non-partisan" ones.

Let's shoot for something like Braun+8 as the real result on election day.

#SendTrumpReinforcements
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #15 on: October 23, 2018, 08:56:09 AM »

I will be doing my part to make sure that Tax Hike Mike doesn't even get to see a tour of the Senate...let alone actually get to become a Senator.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #16 on: October 23, 2018, 09:07:39 AM »

Tilt R
[/quote

Just like you said FL gov is. Donnelly can win]
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #17 on: October 23, 2018, 09:26:59 AM »

I was always skeptical of the idea that people like Donnelly, McCaskill or Tester were going to cruise to reelection while Heitkamp is losing badly at the same time. The race is certainly competitive, but Donnelly definitely remains very vulnerable.
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UWS
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« Reply #18 on: October 23, 2018, 09:35:12 AM »

That is definitely due not only to the Kavanaugh bump but also to recent increase of Trump's job approval rating in Indiana.
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Xing
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« Reply #19 on: October 23, 2018, 09:39:35 AM »

Still a Toss-Up, underestimating Donnelly (which Republicans have done all year) is a bad idea.
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Woody
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« Reply #20 on: October 23, 2018, 09:42:53 AM »

Toss up/Tilt R --> Lean R Final margin is around 2-4 points for Braun.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #21 on: October 23, 2018, 09:43:12 AM »

Still a Toss-Up, underestimating Donnelly (which Republicans have done all year) is a bad idea.

I donít think anyone is underestimating Donnelly? Pretty much everyone here seems to assume heís favored because itís a Democratic wave year and Braun is a weak candidate or whatever. If by underestimating you mean not rating his race Lean or Likely D, yeah, then I guess Iím underestimating him.
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Xing
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« Reply #22 on: October 23, 2018, 09:45:46 AM »

Still a Toss-Up, underestimating Donnelly (which Republicans have done all year) is a bad idea.

I donít think anyone is underestimating Donnelly? Pretty much everyone here seems to assume heís favored because itís a Democratic wave year.

At this point, people have this as a Toss-Up, but many had it as Lean R until quite recently, and some Republicans (not all) have started to write Donnellyís obituary any time a poll finds him down.
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2016
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« Reply #23 on: October 23, 2018, 10:50:43 AM »

You can read all the Crosstabs for this Poll here

https://www.slideshare.net/IndianaBarrister/indiana-us-senate-race-is-close-and-competitive

This does seem to be a Independent Poll and not a R-lean Poll.

It's for a Local Radio Station WIBC

https://www.wibc.com/blogs/tony-katz/morning-news/wibcs-abdul-hakim-shabazz-results-his-self-funded-senate-polling
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Woody
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« Reply #24 on: October 23, 2018, 10:55:34 AM »

This could possibly the be result of the supposed "Kavanaugh bump" and Donnelly's betrayal of his constituents. If things go well for Braun, he could pull off with a 5 point win on election day.
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