MS-S/NBC-Marist: Hyde-Smith in the lead, wins Runoff
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 21, 2024, 07:47:29 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls
  MS-S/NBC-Marist: Hyde-Smith in the lead, wins Runoff
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: MS-S/NBC-Marist: Hyde-Smith in the lead, wins Runoff  (Read 5448 times)
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,594
Venezuela


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 23, 2018, 06:47:01 AM »





http://media1.s-nbcnews.com/i/today/z_creative/NBCNewsMaristPollMSAnnotatedQuestionnaire1810220915.pdf
Logged
Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,453
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2018, 06:49:03 AM »


Likely R --> Likely R (At least with Hyde-Smith)
Logged
OneJ
OneJ_
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,833
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2018, 07:24:57 AM »

This poll also had the general race:

Wicker - 57% RV/60% LV (54%/57% for 3-way)
Baria - 32% RV/LV (30%-31% for 3-way)
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,630
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2018, 07:27:05 AM »

Espy can definitely make the run off, just like Abrams and anything can happen. That's why TN, AZ, NV are critical to Dems hope for majority😀
Logged
7,052,770
Harry
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 35,743
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2018, 07:53:05 AM »

The runoff numbers aren't bad, but Espy's floor in the first round is the high 30s.
Logged
Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,549
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2018, 08:52:01 AM »

Remains Safe R.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,630
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2018, 09:05:36 AM »


Yes, and there will be a run off and Espy wll be competitive in run off
Logged
RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,833


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2018, 09:19:32 AM »

McDaniel at 15% is getting close to the range where Hyde-Smith could win outright in the jungle.
Logged
ηєω Éяσηтιєя
New Frontier
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,399
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -1.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2018, 09:41:57 AM »

Mississippi is gonna Mississippi.

I hope this ends some people's delusion that somehow ruby red and racially polarized Mississippi was going to elect a Black Democrat.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,275
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 23, 2018, 09:42:03 AM »

Toss-up remains Toss-up.
Logged
Fmr. Gov. NickG
NickG
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,282


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -3.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 23, 2018, 10:34:23 AM »

This looks very bad for Dems and the format of this election really hurts them. 

If it were a FPTP jungle election with no run-off, Espy could plausibly finish ahead of both Republicans.  And if it were just Hyde-Smith vs. Espy in a normal November election, there's a slight chance the race could slip under the radar and Espy could pull it off with a big enthusiasm gap. 

But in an Espy/Hyde-Smith run-off in December, when this race is getting all the national attention in November, Espy has no chance.  As long as Hyde-Smith finishes in the top 2, it's Safe R.
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,546
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 23, 2018, 02:34:22 PM »

If, big if, McDaniel wins, and equally big if control the Senate isn't determined by the runoff, the race is still likely
R. After all, we all know how the vast majority of those "undecided" voters are going to break by election day.
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,653
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 23, 2018, 02:36:40 PM »

And some people thought this might be competitive. Hyde-Smith will win both rounds easily. Even Texas and Tennessee are better pick-up opportunities for Democrats.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,630
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 23, 2018, 02:43:57 PM »

And some people thought this might be competitive. Hyde-Smith will win both rounds easily. Even Texas and Tennessee are better pick-up opportunities for Democrats.

She will win the Nov election, the run off is up in the air, you can't say that for sure, just like GA
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 23, 2018, 03:32:07 PM »

As expected, safe R unless McDaniel somehow pulls off a miracle and makes the runoff.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 23, 2018, 03:32:39 PM »

Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,630
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 23, 2018, 04:29:09 PM »

Until run off and Hyde isn't unbearable
Logged
DavidB.
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,644
Israel


Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: 4.26


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 23, 2018, 04:30:34 PM »

lol

And if it were just Hyde-Smith vs. Espy in a normal November election, there's a slight chance the race could slip under the radar and Espy could pull it off with a big enthusiasm gap. 
No, because this is Mississippi, aka inelastic af.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,275
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 23, 2018, 04:36:56 PM »


This has some serious AL-SEN 2017 potential in the runoff, especially if Republicans stay home, so donít count your chickens before they are hatched. AL was also considered "inelastic" before Jones won, and pretty much nobody thought Hogan would be able to win in a landslide because of Maryland's "inelasticity", so "inelastic" is a term just as nebulous/meaningless as "candidate quality".

Mike Espy is definitely more likely to win than Patrick Morrisey at this point.
Logged
DavidB.
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,644
Israel


Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: 4.26


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 23, 2018, 04:46:06 PM »

This has some serious AL-SEN 2017 potential in the runoff, especially if Republicans stay home, so donít count your chickens before they are hatched. AL was also considered "inelastic" before Jones won, and pretty much nobody thought Hogan would be able to win in a landslide because of Maryland's "inelasticity", so "inelastic" is a term just as nebulous/meaningless as "candidate quality".
AL was exceptional because of Roy Moore and his unique scandals. As long as Cindy Hyde-Smith doesn't turn out to have a similarly murky past, she will be fine.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,275
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 23, 2018, 04:56:14 PM »

This has some serious AL-SEN 2017 potential in the runoff, especially if Republicans stay home, so donít count your chickens before they are hatched. AL was also considered "inelastic" before Jones won, and pretty much nobody thought Hogan would be able to win in a landslide because of Maryland's "inelasticity", so "inelastic" is a term just as nebulous/meaningless as "candidate quality".
AL was exceptional because of Roy Moore and his unique scandals. As long as Cindy Hyde-Smith doesn't turn out to have a similarly murky past, she will be fine.

The enthusiasm gap/turnout differential played a key role as well, and Democrats have a much higher floor in MS than AL. Iím not saying sheíll lose, but sheís not Romney-level safe.
Logged
ηєω Éяσηтιєя
New Frontier
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,399
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -1.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 23, 2018, 05:04:37 PM »

This has some serious AL-SEN 2017 potential in the runoff, especially if Republicans stay home, so donít count your chickens before they are hatched. AL was also considered "inelastic" before Jones won, and pretty much nobody thought Hogan would be able to win in a landslide because of Maryland's "inelasticity", so "inelastic" is a term just as nebulous/meaningless as "candidate quality".
AL was exceptional because of Roy Moore and his unique scandals. As long as Cindy Hyde-Smith doesn't turn out to have a similarly murky past, she will be fine.

The enthusiasm gap/turnout differential played a key role as well, and Democrats have a much higher floor in MS than AL. Iím not saying sheíll lose, but sheís not Romney-level safe.
Nope. Cindy Hyde-Smith will win easily.

Mississippi is ruby red and racially polarized just like Alabama. Cindy Hyde-Smith is NOT Roy Moore.
Logged
DavidB.
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,644
Israel


Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: 4.26


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 23, 2018, 05:10:27 PM »

This has some serious AL-SEN 2017 potential in the runoff, especially if Republicans stay home, so donít count your chickens before they are hatched. AL was also considered "inelastic" before Jones won, and pretty much nobody thought Hogan would be able to win in a landslide because of Maryland's "inelasticity", so "inelastic" is a term just as nebulous/meaningless as "candidate quality".
AL was exceptional because of Roy Moore and his unique scandals. As long as Cindy Hyde-Smith doesn't turn out to have a similarly murky past, she will be fine.
The enthusiasm gap/turnout differential played a key role as well, and Democrats have a much higher floor in MS than AL. Iím not saying sheíll lose, but sheís not Romney-level safe.
You were saying it's a tossup. It's not. It's likely R.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,275
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 23, 2018, 05:19:25 PM »

You were saying it's a tossup. It's not. It's likely R.

Yes, everyoneís entitled to their own ratings, and I generally like to be cautious when thereís a lot of uncertainty involved.
Logged
DavidB.
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,644
Israel


Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: 4.26


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 23, 2018, 05:21:32 PM »

You were saying it's a tossup. It's not. It's likely R.

Yes, everyoneís entitled to their own ratings, and I generally like to be cautious when thereís a lot of uncertainty involved.
I get that. But saying it's a tossup is really pushing it. Lean R I can understand. And of course you decide on your own ratings. Feel free to make it safe D for all I care. But if you're going to say it here, people will respond to it (and let's be honest, that's what you want too).
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.053 seconds with 12 queries.