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  Talk Elections
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  FL-Kaiser: Nelson +3
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Author Topic: FL-Kaiser: Nelson +3  (Read 1168 times)
Make PA Blue Again!
PittsburghSteel
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« on: October 18, 2018, 11:21:10 am »

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Skye
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« Reply #1 on: October 18, 2018, 11:23:31 am »

Never heard of these guys.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #2 on: October 18, 2018, 11:25:32 am »
« Edited: October 18, 2018, 11:32:43 am by Zaybay »


The Kaiser Foundation. They do the polling for public policy, mostly. Congress relies on them as a sort of nonpartisan pollster for ideas(Obamacare repeal and keeping it were argued by using Kaiser's numbers).They sometimes do polling for races, but thats rare.

Edit: they are also using SSRS, which is a good sign.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #3 on: October 18, 2018, 11:36:26 am »

Senate: TCTC/Tilt D
Guv: Lean D/Likely D
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Skye
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« Reply #4 on: October 18, 2018, 11:48:28 am »

The poll also ended on October 2.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #5 on: October 18, 2018, 11:50:36 am »

hmm, yeah, true. That puts this poll during and after Kavanaugh. We still have little clue of the hurricane's effect.
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SirWoodbury
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« Reply #6 on: October 18, 2018, 11:53:45 am »

Useless poll. This was conducted before the hurricane made landfall. I can't wait to see the panic here when the polls show Scott with comfortable leads. The hurricane bump is real.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7 on: October 18, 2018, 12:16:24 pm »

Great poll!
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UWS
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« Reply #8 on: October 18, 2018, 12:25:08 pm »

Useless poll. This was conducted before the hurricane made landfall. I can't wait to see the panic here when the polls show Scott with comfortable leads. The hurricane bump is real.
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Xing
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« Reply #9 on: October 18, 2018, 12:29:03 pm »

Useless poll. This was conducted before the hurricane made landfall. I can't wait to see the panic here when the polls show Scott with comfortable leads. The hurricane bump is real.

This poll is from two weeks ago, but I really think those of you expecting the hurricane to affect the race significantly are going to be very disappointed. This is a national race, not a local race, and most voters have already made up their minds. The idea that Scott is going to surge to 6-10 points leads this late in the race, in this environment, is ludicrous.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #10 on: October 18, 2018, 12:29:54 pm »

Useless poll. This was conducted before the hurricane made landfall. I can't wait to see the panic here when the polls show Scott with comfortable leads. The hurricane bump is real.

yeah, that one poll going from a tie to R+2 is really going to screw over Nelson. That hurricane bump is real and it is fierce!
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: October 18, 2018, 12:36:33 pm »

Useless poll. This was conducted before the hurricane made landfall. I can't wait to see the panic here when the polls show Scott with comfortable leads. The hurricane bump is real.

This poll is from two weeks ago, but I really think those of you expecting the hurricane to affect the race significantly are going to be very disappointed. This is a national race, not a local race, and most voters have already made up their minds. The idea that Scott is going to surge to 6-10 points leads this late in the race, in this environment, is ludicrous.

I highly doubt Scott will get a massive bump from the hurricane, but even a small bump would be pretty bad for the Dems. I guess we'll see eventually. All the good pollsters are currently avoiding FL due to the hurricane.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #12 on: October 18, 2018, 02:00:29 pm »

Useless poll. This was conducted before the hurricane made landfall. I can't wait to see the panic here when the polls show Scott with comfortable leads. The hurricane bump is real.

This poll is from two weeks ago, but I really think those of you expecting the hurricane to affect the race significantly are going to be very disappointed. This is a national race, not a local race, and most voters have already made up their minds. The idea that Scott is going to surge to 6-10 points leads this late in the race, in this environment, is ludicrous.

I highly doubt Scott will get a massive bump from the hurricane, but even a small bump would be pretty bad for the Dems. I guess we'll see eventually. All the good pollsters are currently avoiding FL due to the hurricane.
I think whatever bump he gets is cancelled out because of all the displacement that happened. You can say that Mathew sealed the deal for Trump in North Carolina with the displacement. Else, I think he would of had half the margin!
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Chaddyr23
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« Reply #13 on: October 18, 2018, 02:09:29 pm »

At its worst the hurricane negatively impacted only 1 media market, Panama City Beach. Some politicos think it will hurt Republicans by about net -20000 votes. Dont think Voldemort gets a huge bump
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #14 on: October 18, 2018, 02:16:01 pm »

At its worst the hurricane negatively impacted only 1 media market, Panama City Beach. Some politicos think it will hurt Republicans by about net -20000 votes. Dont think Voldemort gets a huge bump

And that's like what? .2% of the vote in Florida? Maybe .3 if people "forget" to vote?
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #15 on: October 18, 2018, 02:54:14 pm »

One poll (which ended on October 2) finding surprisingly good numbers for Democrats certainly doesnít invalidate two other more recent ones, lol. And Nelson underperforming Gillum by 5 is definitely not good news for him in any way.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #16 on: October 18, 2018, 06:41:40 pm »

One poll (which ended on October 2) finding surprisingly good numbers for Democrats certainly doesnít invalidate two other more recent ones, lol. And Nelson underperforming Gillum by 5 is definitely not good news for him in any way.

Itís not Nelson underperforming Gillum as much as Scott outperforming DeSantis. Nelson and Gillum are both at 48. DeSantis is just largely unknown compared to Scott.
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2016
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« Reply #17 on: October 18, 2018, 07:58:48 pm »

One poll (which ended on October 2) finding surprisingly good numbers for Democrats certainly doesnít invalidate two other more recent ones, lol. And Nelson underperforming Gillum by 5 is definitely not good news for him in any way.

Itís not Nelson underperforming Gillum as much as Scott outperforming DeSantis. Nelson and Gillum are both at 48. DeSantis is just largely unknown compared to Scott.

Scott has been a good Governor for the last 8 years. He was elected under the Tea Party Label in 2010 but since then pivoted to the middle especially the last 4 years after beating Crist. The only Poll post "Michael" from St. Pete shows 62% of Voters approving of the Governors Response to the Hurricane. If other Polls in the coming Days bear that out Scott will be in the Drivers Seat soon particularly after Nelson got back on the Campaign Trail.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #18 on: October 18, 2018, 08:01:04 pm »

Nelson needs to push Social Security and Medicare hard to win the senior vote and needs to keep pushing the red tide narrative to show that Scott would be bad on the environment.
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UWS
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« Reply #19 on: October 18, 2018, 08:28:13 pm »

One poll (which ended on October 2) finding surprisingly good numbers for Democrats certainly doesnít invalidate two other more recent ones, lol. And Nelson underperforming Gillum by 5 is definitely not good news for him in any way.

Itís not Nelson underperforming Gillum as much as Scott outperforming DeSantis. Nelson and Gillum are both at 48. DeSantis is just largely unknown compared to Scott.

Scott has been a good Governor for the last 8 years. He was elected under the Tea Party Label in 2010 but since then pivoted to the middle especially the last 4 years after beating Crist. The only Poll post "Michael" from St. Pete shows 62% of Voters approving of the Governors Response to the Hurricane. If other Polls in the coming Days bear that out Scott will be in the Drivers Seat soon particularly after Nelson got back on the Campaign Trail.

And this same poll post-Hurricane Michael also shows that Scott is ahead by 12 points among Hispanic voters, one of the key voting groups for a victory in Florida.
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