NJ-Quinnipiac: Menendez +7
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 28, 2022, 05:53:49 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  NJ-Quinnipiac: Menendez +7
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: NJ-Quinnipiac: Menendez +7  (Read 2025 times)
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,109
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 17, 2018, 11:32:43 AM »

Bob Menendez (D-inc) 51
Bob Hugin (R) 44

https://poll.qu.edu/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=2579
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,849
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2018, 11:37:53 AM »

Hugin is more likely to win than Bredesen, O'Rourke, or Heitkamp.
Logged
MT Treasurer, Axed with Lax
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,277
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2018, 11:39:16 AM »

Looks about right, honestly.
Logged
wesmoorenerd
westroopnerd
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,542
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -7.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 17, 2018, 11:39:53 AM »

Hugin is more likely to win than Bredesen, O'Rourke, or Heitkamp.

Hugin is less likely to win than all three, and it's not even close. Hugin hasn't even been close in recent polls and I'm confident undecideds are going to break hard for Menendez.

That said, it's a travesty that this race is so close.
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,570
Venezuela


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 17, 2018, 11:43:41 AM »

Nice. Hopefully Hugin can get more than 44%.
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 37,485
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 17, 2018, 11:44:12 AM »

Hugin is more likely to win than Bredesen, O'Rourke, or Heitkamp.

Hugin is less likely to win than all three, and it's not even close. Hugin hasn't even been close in recent polls and I'm confident undecideds are going to break hard for Menendez.

That said, it's a travesty that this race is so close.

It's a travesty Menendez is still in the Senate.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,849
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 17, 2018, 11:46:05 AM »

Hugin is more likely to win than Bredesen, O'Rourke, or Heitkamp.

Hugin is less likely to win than all three, and it's not even close. Hugin hasn't even been close in recent polls and I'm confident undecideds are going to break hard for Menendez.

That said, it's a travesty that this race is so close.

Yes, Hugin hasn't been close in any recent reliable polls. Bredesen, O'Rourke, and Heitkamp haven't been close in any recent reliable polls either. I was more talking down their chances than talking up his.
Logged
Strudelcutie4427
Singletxguyforfun
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,378
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 17, 2018, 11:47:46 AM »

Hugin is more likely to win than Bredesen, O'Rourke, or Heitkamp.

Hugin is less likely to win than all three, and it's not even close. Hugin hasn't even been close in recent polls and I'm confident undecideds are going to break hard for Menendez.

That said, it's a travesty that this race is so close.

Menendez is your party’s Roy Moore
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,133
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 17, 2018, 11:53:43 AM »

Hugin is more likely to win than Bredesen, O'Rourke, or Heitkamp.

None of them are winning so who cares? That said you're still technically wrong, New Jersey is gonna New Jersey.
Logged
Laki
Lakigigar
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,847
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -7.13, S: -4.72

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 17, 2018, 11:54:25 AM »

Why didn't he lose in the primaries? Why do people continue to vote for such people in primaries... .
Logged
Sestak
jk2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,500
Ukraine



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 17, 2018, 11:56:29 AM »

Why didn't he lose in the primaries? Why do people continue to vote for such people in primaries... .

Because Justice Dems et al were too busy funding joke candidates like Allyson Hartso.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,849
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 17, 2018, 11:56:52 AM »

Hugin is more likely to win than Bredesen, O'Rourke, or Heitkamp.
None of them are winning so who cares? That said you're still technically wrong, New Jersey is gonna New Jersey.

Far from a universal opinion, lol.

And Tennessee is gonna Tennessee, Texas is gonna Texas, and North Dakota is gonna North Dakota.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,623
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 17, 2018, 11:58:40 AM »

Safe D race is Safe D. Even if the red wave is real, Menendez will win.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,400
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 17, 2018, 12:03:16 PM »

Hugin is more likely to win than Bredesen, O'Rourke, or Heitkamp.

Hugin is less likely to win than all three, and it's not even close. Hugin hasn't even been close in recent polls and I'm confident undecideds are going to break hard for Menendez.

That said, it's a travesty that this race is so close.

Menendez is your party’s Roy Moore

Good to know you compare corruption with pedophila.
Logged
RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,405


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 17, 2018, 12:05:53 PM »

Hugin is more likely to win than Bredesen, O'Rourke, or Heitkamp.

Hugin is less likely to win than all three, and it's not even close. Hugin hasn't even been close in recent polls and I'm confident undecideds are going to break hard for Menendez.

That said, it's a travesty that this race is so close.

Menendez is your party’s Roy Moore

Good to know you compare corruption with pedophila.


Menendez is also accused of pedophilia.
Logged
MT Treasurer, Axed with Lax
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,277
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 17, 2018, 12:14:32 PM »

Safe D race is Safe D. Even if the red wave is real, Menendez will win.

I definitely agree with this, and it would be true even if Menendez did things a lot worse than what he has been accused of in the past.
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,386
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 17, 2018, 12:16:18 PM »

Looks spot on.
Logged
Overturn Dobbs
Beet
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,993


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 17, 2018, 12:21:08 PM »

No, I'm going to say that Menendez is more vulnerable than he looks, and could easily lose. (So could Ted Cruz.)
Logged
NUPES Enjoyer
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 55,898
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 17, 2018, 01:19:25 PM »

Hugin is more likely to win than Bredesen, O'Rourke, or Heitkamp.

Oh come on now.
Logged
Arkansas Yankee
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,175
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 17, 2018, 01:30:26 PM »

538 adjusted this poll to show Menendez with a lead of just 5.8%.

Schumer is worried enough to pump in an extra $3 million.   

If Moore deserved to be defeated, so does Menendez.
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 17, 2018, 02:16:45 PM »

Safe D race is Safe D. Even if the red wave is real, Menendez will win.
Your Jersey tease is the same as your Texas tease and your Tennessee tease. It happens every cycle.

OMG NJ is close!! Competitive even!!! Then reality sets in and the Dems win by at least 10. The only time Jersey can swing Republican is if the Democrat is a crook, but I doubt this seat is changing hands although Menendez is a complete scumbag. Perhaps it's a 5-10 point win instead of a 15-20 point one at the end of the day.
Logged
Incitatus for Senate
AMB1996
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,688
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 17, 2018, 03:22:53 PM »
« Edited: October 17, 2018, 03:29:11 PM by AMB1996 »

For those who forget, this is a four-point improvement for Hugin since the last Q-poll. Unsurprising since he's basically running a campaign unopposed and just smacked Menendez with the double-whammy of pedophilia* and prostitution. It's a question of attrition at this point – How much can Hugin really gain in the short time remaining? Will Menendez supporters really abandon him or stay home?

Still Lean/Likely D until we see at least one poll with the race effectively tied or Hugin winning. One close Stockton poll wasn't enough for me.

I still like Hugin's chances and agree that he's in a better position than Bredesen at least. New Jersey is the one state where you definitely can buy an election against a weak opponent, since it takes a lot of cash to respond effectively to these negative attacks.

-----

*No, I don't need the ancap rant on ephebophilia. From a marketing/campaign perspective, Menendez is being called a pedophile.
Logged
Overturn Dobbs
Beet
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,993


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 17, 2018, 03:38:51 PM »

Safe D race is Safe D. Even if the red wave is real, Menendez will win.
Your Jersey tease is the same as your Texas tease and your Tennessee tease. It happens every cycle.

OMG NJ is close!! Competitive even!!! Then reality sets in and the Dems win by at least 10. The only time Jersey can swing Republican is if the Democrat is a crook, but I doubt this seat is changing hands although Menendez is a complete scumbag. Perhaps it's a 5-10 point win instead of a 15-20 point one at the end of the day.

Well the difference is that there's no one defending Menendez. There are plenty of people who defend Cruz, and some who will defend a vote for Blackburn, but I don't see many people say, "Yeah, Menendez is a great guy, OR 'yeah, Menendez sucks but here's why you should vote for him."

Basically the best argument for him is that he's a D and NJ is D and the Senate is on the line in a Trump midterm. That barebones argument will get him to something like 45% in a state like New Jersey, but where's the other 5% going to come from?
Logged
bilaps
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,347
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 17, 2018, 04:05:15 PM »

Hugin is more likely to win than Bredesen, O'Rourke, or Heitkamp.

Hugin is less likely to win than all three, and it's not even close. Hugin hasn't even been close in recent polls and I'm confident undecideds are going to break hard for Menendez.

That said, it's a travesty that this race is so close.

Undecideds tend to break in favour of corrupted incumbent in what world?
Logged
Incitatus for Senate
AMB1996
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,688
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 17, 2018, 04:15:40 PM »

Hugin is more likely to win than Bredesen, O'Rourke, or Heitkamp.

Hugin is less likely to win than all three, and it's not even close. Hugin hasn't even been close in recent polls and I'm confident undecideds are going to break hard for Menendez.

That said, it's a travesty that this race is so close.

Undecideds tend to break in favour of corrupted incumbent in what world?

This assumption is based on the disproportionate numbers of undecideds in this race who fall into one of the following categories: women, non-white, from the Philadelphia suburbs. This is a typical assumption that often holds true, though it discounts that all reasons for indecision are not alike.

However, this poll also shows that a disproportionate number of undecideds are from the Shore, non-educated, and independents (especially among women), groups that all go for Hugin. I wouldn't assume the conventional wisdom holds up here.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.06 seconds with 12 queries.