NJ-Quinnipiac: Menendez +7
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  NJ-Quinnipiac: Menendez +7
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Author Topic: NJ-Quinnipiac: Menendez +7  (Read 2526 times)
ON Progressive
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Junior Chimp
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« on: October 17, 2018, 11:32:43 AM »

Bob Menendez (D-inc) 51
Bob Hugin (R) 44

https://poll.qu.edu/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=2579
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2018, 11:37:53 AM »

Hugin is more likely to win than Bredesen, O'Rourke, or Heitkamp.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2018, 11:39:16 AM »

Looks about right, honestly.
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wesmoorenerd
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« Reply #3 on: October 17, 2018, 11:39:53 AM »

Hugin is more likely to win than Bredesen, O'Rourke, or Heitkamp.

Hugin is less likely to win than all three, and it's not even close. Hugin hasn't even been close in recent polls and I'm confident undecideds are going to break hard for Menendez.

That said, it's a travesty that this race is so close.
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Skye
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« Reply #4 on: October 17, 2018, 11:43:41 AM »

Nice. Hopefully Hugin can get more than 44%.
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Badger
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« Reply #5 on: October 17, 2018, 11:44:12 AM »

Hugin is more likely to win than Bredesen, O'Rourke, or Heitkamp.

Hugin is less likely to win than all three, and it's not even close. Hugin hasn't even been close in recent polls and I'm confident undecideds are going to break hard for Menendez.

That said, it's a travesty that this race is so close.

It's a travesty Menendez is still in the Senate.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #6 on: October 17, 2018, 11:46:05 AM »

Hugin is more likely to win than Bredesen, O'Rourke, or Heitkamp.

Hugin is less likely to win than all three, and it's not even close. Hugin hasn't even been close in recent polls and I'm confident undecideds are going to break hard for Menendez.

That said, it's a travesty that this race is so close.

Yes, Hugin hasn't been close in any recent reliable polls. Bredesen, O'Rourke, and Heitkamp haven't been close in any recent reliable polls either. I was more talking down their chances than talking up his.
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Strudelcutie4427
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« Reply #7 on: October 17, 2018, 11:47:46 AM »

Hugin is more likely to win than Bredesen, O'Rourke, or Heitkamp.

Hugin is less likely to win than all three, and it's not even close. Hugin hasn't even been close in recent polls and I'm confident undecideds are going to break hard for Menendez.

That said, it's a travesty that this race is so close.

Menendez is your party’s Roy Moore
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #8 on: October 17, 2018, 11:53:43 AM »

Hugin is more likely to win than Bredesen, O'Rourke, or Heitkamp.

None of them are winning so who cares? That said you're still technically wrong, New Jersey is gonna New Jersey.
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LAKISYLVANIA
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« Reply #9 on: October 17, 2018, 11:54:25 AM »

Why didn't he lose in the primaries? Why do people continue to vote for such people in primaries... .
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Sestak
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« Reply #10 on: October 17, 2018, 11:56:29 AM »

Why didn't he lose in the primaries? Why do people continue to vote for such people in primaries... .

Because Justice Dems et al were too busy funding joke candidates like Allyson Hartso.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: October 17, 2018, 11:56:52 AM »

Hugin is more likely to win than Bredesen, O'Rourke, or Heitkamp.
None of them are winning so who cares? That said you're still technically wrong, New Jersey is gonna New Jersey.

Far from a universal opinion, lol.

And Tennessee is gonna Tennessee, Texas is gonna Texas, and North Dakota is gonna North Dakota.
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Xing
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« Reply #12 on: October 17, 2018, 11:58:40 AM »

Safe D race is Safe D. Even if the red wave is real, Menendez will win.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #13 on: October 17, 2018, 12:03:16 PM »

Hugin is more likely to win than Bredesen, O'Rourke, or Heitkamp.

Hugin is less likely to win than all three, and it's not even close. Hugin hasn't even been close in recent polls and I'm confident undecideds are going to break hard for Menendez.

That said, it's a travesty that this race is so close.

Menendez is your party’s Roy Moore

Good to know you compare corruption with pedophila.
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RI
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« Reply #14 on: October 17, 2018, 12:05:53 PM »

Hugin is more likely to win than Bredesen, O'Rourke, or Heitkamp.

Hugin is less likely to win than all three, and it's not even close. Hugin hasn't even been close in recent polls and I'm confident undecideds are going to break hard for Menendez.

That said, it's a travesty that this race is so close.

Menendez is your party’s Roy Moore

Good to know you compare corruption with pedophila.


Menendez is also accused of pedophilia.
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« Reply #15 on: October 17, 2018, 12:14:32 PM »

Safe D race is Safe D. Even if the red wave is real, Menendez will win.

I definitely agree with this, and it would be true even if Menendez did things a lot worse than what he has been accused of in the past.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #16 on: October 17, 2018, 12:16:18 PM »

Looks spot on.
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Beet
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« Reply #17 on: October 17, 2018, 12:21:08 PM »

No, I'm going to say that Menendez is more vulnerable than he looks, and could easily lose. (So could Ted Cruz.)
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #18 on: October 17, 2018, 01:19:25 PM »

Hugin is more likely to win than Bredesen, O'Rourke, or Heitkamp.

Oh come on now.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #19 on: October 17, 2018, 01:30:26 PM »

538 adjusted this poll to show Menendez with a lead of just 5.8%.

Schumer is worried enough to pump in an extra $3 million.   

If Moore deserved to be defeated, so does Menendez.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #20 on: October 17, 2018, 02:16:45 PM »

Safe D race is Safe D. Even if the red wave is real, Menendez will win.
Your Jersey tease is the same as your Texas tease and your Tennessee tease. It happens every cycle.

OMG NJ is close!! Competitive even!!! Then reality sets in and the Dems win by at least 10. The only time Jersey can swing Republican is if the Democrat is a crook, but I doubt this seat is changing hands although Menendez is a complete scumbag. Perhaps it's a 5-10 point win instead of a 15-20 point one at the end of the day.
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
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« Reply #21 on: October 17, 2018, 03:22:53 PM »
« Edited: October 17, 2018, 03:29:11 PM by AMB1996 »

For those who forget, this is a four-point improvement for Hugin since the last Q-poll. Unsurprising since he's basically running a campaign unopposed and just smacked Menendez with the double-whammy of pedophilia* and prostitution. It's a question of attrition at this point – How much can Hugin really gain in the short time remaining? Will Menendez supporters really abandon him or stay home?

Still Lean/Likely D until we see at least one poll with the race effectively tied or Hugin winning. One close Stockton poll wasn't enough for me.

I still like Hugin's chances and agree that he's in a better position than Bredesen at least. New Jersey is the one state where you definitely can buy an election against a weak opponent, since it takes a lot of cash to respond effectively to these negative attacks.

-----

*No, I don't need the ancap rant on ephebophilia. From a marketing/campaign perspective, Menendez is being called a pedophile.
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Beet
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« Reply #22 on: October 17, 2018, 03:38:51 PM »

Safe D race is Safe D. Even if the red wave is real, Menendez will win.
Your Jersey tease is the same as your Texas tease and your Tennessee tease. It happens every cycle.

OMG NJ is close!! Competitive even!!! Then reality sets in and the Dems win by at least 10. The only time Jersey can swing Republican is if the Democrat is a crook, but I doubt this seat is changing hands although Menendez is a complete scumbag. Perhaps it's a 5-10 point win instead of a 15-20 point one at the end of the day.

Well the difference is that there's no one defending Menendez. There are plenty of people who defend Cruz, and some who will defend a vote for Blackburn, but I don't see many people say, "Yeah, Menendez is a great guy, OR 'yeah, Menendez sucks but here's why you should vote for him."

Basically the best argument for him is that he's a D and NJ is D and the Senate is on the line in a Trump midterm. That barebones argument will get him to something like 45% in a state like New Jersey, but where's the other 5% going to come from?
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bilaps
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« Reply #23 on: October 17, 2018, 04:05:15 PM »

Hugin is more likely to win than Bredesen, O'Rourke, or Heitkamp.

Hugin is less likely to win than all three, and it's not even close. Hugin hasn't even been close in recent polls and I'm confident undecideds are going to break hard for Menendez.

That said, it's a travesty that this race is so close.

Undecideds tend to break in favour of corrupted incumbent in what world?
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #24 on: October 17, 2018, 04:15:40 PM »

Hugin is more likely to win than Bredesen, O'Rourke, or Heitkamp.

Hugin is less likely to win than all three, and it's not even close. Hugin hasn't even been close in recent polls and I'm confident undecideds are going to break hard for Menendez.

That said, it's a travesty that this race is so close.

Undecideds tend to break in favour of corrupted incumbent in what world?

This assumption is based on the disproportionate numbers of undecideds in this race who fall into one of the following categories: women, non-white, from the Philadelphia suburbs. This is a typical assumption that often holds true, though it discounts that all reasons for indecision are not alike.

However, this poll also shows that a disproportionate number of undecideds are from the Shore, non-educated, and independents (especially among women), groups that all go for Hugin. I wouldn't assume the conventional wisdom holds up here.
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