The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 3

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I feel bad for Eric Swalwell, he seems like a nice guy and is a progressive FF, but his 2020 campaign will be such a dud. He is just some random congressman from CA. His Facebook live event had less than 30 views. He will go down as a Jim Gilmore type figure.

[Not Me, Us]

Hickenlooper reportedly now looking at doing an announcement next week:

https://coloradosun.com/2019/02/28/john-hickenlooper-presidential-bid-announcement/

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I knew this primary would be a clown car, but my god these people are delusional.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The field should only be Sanders, Warren, Harris, Gillibrand, Biden, and Klobuchar. The rest need to sit down.

[Gass3268]

The field should only be Sanders, Warren, Harris, Gillibrand, Biden, and Klobuchar. The rest need to sit down.

To include Gillibrand over Booker does not make sense to me.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I feel bad for Eric Swalwell, he seems like a nice guy and is a progressive FF, but his 2020 campaign will be such a dud. He is just some random congressman from CA. His Facebook live event had less than 30 views. He will go down as a Jim Gilmore type figure.

It's kind of hilarious that the 3 representatives from Alameda county will consist of a candidate and co-chair for 2 other campaigns.

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/28/politics/beto-orourke-el-paso-waits-2020-president-decision/index.html

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[Progressive Pessimist]

The field should only be Sanders, Warren, Harris, Gillibrand, Biden, and Klobuchar. The rest need to sit down.

What about Booker and O'Rourke?

[Roll Roons]

Grandpa Joe:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/432131-exclusive-inside-joe-bidens-campaign-in-waiting?fbclid=IwAR02W49xC5o_XijAYLURlSsXwO21m8Hp-yPAi-N_yaEhM96Gcvw1V0o_t9g

[Tender Branson]

Bullock is in IA for a 6th time and hires a campaign staffer there:

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/iowa/articles/2019-02-28/bullock-hires-iowa-staffer-plans-sixth-trip-to-state

Still, no decision until May ...

[Rookie Yinzer]

The field should only be Sanders, Warren, Harris, Gillibrand, Biden, and Klobuchar. The rest need to sit down.

Joe Biden is a Republican. He needs to sit down.

[TarHeelDem]

The field should only be Sanders, Warren, Harris, Gillibrand, Biden, and Klobuchar. The rest need to sit down.

Joe Biden is a Republican. He needs to sit down.

Wish I was this edgy, not gonna lie

[Mr. Morden]

Sounds like Brown might declare his intentions by mid-March after all:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/28/us/politics/2020-democrats-announcements.html

Mr. Inslee is poised to announce a bid as early as Friday, and former Gov. John Hickenlooper of Colorado is expected to enter the race as soon as next week. Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio is wrapping up his tour of early primary states, leaving him a week or two away from making a decision, say those who have spoken to him.

On Biden…ftr, I don’t think the “My family wants me to run” line from Biden means that he’s necessarily going to run.  That’s just Biden bloviating in the way that he always does.  I still think it’s a close call as to whether he pulls the trigger.  This story takes a look at his dithering:

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/henrygomez/joe-biden-2020-election-speeches-campaign

For that conversation, Biden was supposed to be the interviewer. Author Jon Meacham had come to promote his book — a Biden favorite. But the two spent nearly 90 minutes in a sort of tandem history lecture, with Meacham ultimately unable to resist asking Biden about 2020. Biden’s response betrayed a self-awareness that times have changed, that the political moment may have passed him by. He told Meacham he wouldn’t want to embark on a “fool’s errand.” As evidenced by the deliberations over his “appeal,” Biden, who leads Democrats in early polls, is skeptical of how far he can get with the electability argument that provides a rationale to run.

“Some people say he may be afraid of losing,” Ted Strickland, the Democratic former governor of Ohio and a Biden friend, told BuzzFeed News. “That’s always a possibility, I guess.”
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And, so far, Biden has shown no appetite for anything but a soft launch. Behind the scenes, there are reports that he’s trying to staff up in the early-voting states, but party leaders there haven’t heard a whole lot from him. As it stands, Biden’s first political activity of 2019 is set for March 16, smack dab in his comfort zone: a dinner for home-state Democrats in Delaware.

In other Biden news, he’s aiming to connect with youngs:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/27/joe-biden-is-getting-advice-from-social-media-executives-on-how-best-to-appeal-to-young-voters.html

Former Vice President Joe Biden has been receiving regular briefings from executives at digital and social media companies in order to learn strategies for appealing to young voters if he were to run for president again.

Biden has gotten advice from an executive at Twitter, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter who would not disclose the executive’s name.
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The former vice president has also talked with Athan Stephanopoulos, president of NowThis News, an online outlet that specializes in creating and distributing viral short-form videos — and helped raise the national profile of potential 2020 Democratic candidate Beto O’Rourke.

Lengthy new profile of Hickenlooper here:

https://www.businessinsider.com/john-hickenlooper-brewery-owner-governor-possible-2020-democratic-contender-2019-2

[Sestak]

Come on sherrod!

[TheSaint250]

Jay Inslee is in:

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1101452424802435072

[Mr. Morden]

Biden confirmed a few days ago that any campaign launch from him wouldn’t happen until the second quarter of this year, meaning April:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/26/us/politics/biden-2020-family.html

He said he was in “the final stages” of deciding. And in a brief interview after the event, Mr. Biden said that, if he ran, he would begin his campaign in the second quarter of this year, which could mean as early as April.

Apparently when Bennet was in Iowa last week, he said that he was “leaning toward” running:

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2019/02/22/michael-bennet-colorado-education-experience-iowa-caucuses-2020-election-president-hickenlooper-dem/2919439002/

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Biden confirmed a few days ago that any campaign launch from him wouldn’t happen until the second quarter of this year, meaning April:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/26/us/politics/biden-2020-family.html

He said he was in “the final stages” of deciding. And in a brief interview after the event, Mr. Biden said that, if he ran, he would begin his campaign in the second quarter of this year, which could mean as early as April.

Apparently when Bennet was in Iowa last week, he said that he was “leaning toward” running:

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2019/02/22/michael-bennet-colorado-education-experience-iowa-caucuses-2020-election-president-hickenlooper-dem/2919439002/

Oh come on Bennet!! I love the variety of choices but some of these guys have no chance!

[Mr. Morden]

Hickenlooper reportedly planning to announce on March 7th:

https://gazette.com/news/hickenlooper-set-to-announce-presidential-decision-march-in-denver/article_6b6e7c7e-ed7b-5a8a-99eb-0985bad6bb23.html

Former Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper will announce whether he's running for president on March 7 in Denver's Civic Center Park, Democrats briefed on his plans tell Colorado Politics.

Democratic sources say the one-time geologist-turned-brew pub operator plans to feature home-grown musicians at an event set to take place between Denver's City & County Building, where Hickenlooper served two terms as mayor, and the Colorado Capitol, where as governor he helped steer the state from the depths of a recession to one of the top economies in the country.

A spokeswoman for Hickenlooper's federal political committee, Giddy Up PAC, told Colorado Politics Friday that the former governor hasn't "officially made a decision yet."
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But Democrats with knowledge of Hickenlooper's plans tell Colorado Politics the former governor has made up his mind and has informed them in recent days that he will launch his presidential campaign.

[The Free North]

Too
Many
People

[Calthrina950]

Why are so many Democrats running? Such a fractured field may only end up helping Trump.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Hickenlooper reportedly planning to announce on March 7th:

https://gazette.com/news/hickenlooper-set-to-announce-presidential-decision-march-in-denver/article_6b6e7c7e-ed7b-5a8a-99eb-0985bad6bb23.html

Former Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper will announce whether he's running for president on March 7 in Denver's Civic Center Park, Democrats briefed on his plans tell Colorado Politics.

Democratic sources say the one-time geologist-turned-brew pub operator plans to feature home-grown musicians at an event set to take place between Denver's City & County Building, where Hickenlooper served two terms as mayor, and the Colorado Capitol, where as governor he helped steer the state from the depths of a recession to one of the top economies in the country.

A spokeswoman for Hickenlooper's federal political committee, Giddy Up PAC, told Colorado Politics Friday that the former governor hasn't "officially made a decision yet."
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But Democrats with knowledge of Hickenlooper's plans tell Colorado Politics the former governor has made up his mind and has informed them in recent days that he will launch his presidential campaign.

Giddy Up PAC LOL

[OneJ]

Why are so many Democrats running? Such a fractured field may only end up helping Trump.

I mean the 2016 Republican primary was quite fractured as well. It didn’t seem to hurt Trump in the slightest.

[Mr. Smith]

Why are so many Democrats running? Such a fractured field may only end up helping Trump.

I mean the 2016 Republican primary was quite fractured as well. It didn’t seem to hurt Trump in the slightest.

President Ford's second term agrees with this too!

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[Mr. Morden]

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/01/bloomberg-aides-interview-staffers-in-nh-iowa-as-billionaire-considers-2020-run.html

Former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg's closest advisors have been interviewing potential aides in early caucus and primary states as the billionaire considers a 2020 run for president, CNBC has learned.

Kevin Sheekey, one of Bloomberg's closest confidants, has been meeting with prospective staff members in Iowa and New Hampshire, according to sources with direct knowledge of the matter. Iowa and New Hampshire serve as the first two states in the presidential primaries while also acting as an early litmus test for those looking to capture the nomination. Both of the early contests are expected to take place in February 2020.

"Bloomberg has the money and smart people around him, but they're preparing to build a larger campaign apparatus to compete against the other 2020 candidates if he decides to run," a person familiar with the plans told CNBC on the condition of anonymity.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Why are so many Democrats running? Such a fractured field may only end up helping Trump.

I mean the 2016 Republican primary was quite fractured as well. It didn’t seem to hurt Trump in the slightest.

It actually did but he won in spite of it. If by magic you remove all the intraparty disputes in the 2016 Republican Primaries, Trump has a real shot at winning New Hampshire and Minnesota as well at the very least. There was a small percentage of the electorate who voted for McMullin, Johnson, and Hillary who might very well have voted for Trump were it not for the grudges they hadn't let go of when he beat their favored GOP candidate.

There is a possibility that we see that same phenomenon cost the Democrats a victory in 2020. For instance, a small percentage of the electorate may opt to vote for non-major party centrist candidates or even Trump himself if someone like Bernie wins. You can also have the opposite scenario where a small percentage of the electorate may opt to vote for the Green Party or other non-major party progressive candidates if someone like Biden wins. Even if it's someone who isn't quite a centrist like Kamala or Beto, the dynamics of the campaign process could lead to them being too tainted by what they had to do to beat Bernie. There were Bernie supporters who stayed home rather than vote for Hillary in 2016 and while those same people are probably less likely to do the same in 2020 if the candidate isn't Bernie, don't discount the possibility of that happening again. Don't also discount the possibility of the #NeverBernie crowd refusing to united behind him even if he is their best chance at unseating Trump.

[Calthrina950]

Why are so many Democrats running? Such a fractured field may only end up helping Trump.

I mean the 2016 Republican primary was quite fractured as well. It didn’t seem to hurt Trump in the slightest.

It actually did but he won in spite of it. If by magic you remove all the intraparty disputes in the 2016 Republican Primaries, Trump has a real shot at winning New Hampshire and Minnesota as well at the very least. There was a small percentage of the electorate who voted for McMullin, Johnson, and Hillary who might very well have voted for Trump were it not for the grudges they hadn't let go of when he beat their favored GOP candidate.

There is a possibility that we see that same phenomenon cost the Democrats a victory in 2020. For instance, a small percentage of the electorate may opt to vote for non-major party centrist candidates or even Trump himself if someone like Bernie wins. You can also have the opposite scenario where a small percentage of the electorate may opt to vote for the Green Party or other non-major party progressive candidates if someone like Biden wins. Even if it's someone who isn't quite a centrist like Kamala or Beto, the dynamics of the campaign process could lead to them being too tainted by what they had to do to beat Bernie. There were Bernie supporters who stayed home rather than vote for Hillary in 2016 and while those same people are probably less likely to do the same in 2020 if the candidate isn't Bernie, don't discount the possibility of that happening again. Don't also discount the possibility of the #NeverBernie crowd refusing to united behind him even if he is their best chance at unseating Trump.

This is a good analysis.