List of International Elections where the popular vote winner would have lost if
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  List of International Elections where the popular vote winner would have lost if
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Author Topic: List of International Elections where the popular vote winner would have lost if  (Read 980 times)
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
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« on: October 06, 2018, 12:12:13 PM »

those Countries has an electoral-college type system? Does anyone have a list like this?
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jaichind
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« Reply #1 on: October 06, 2018, 12:14:52 PM »

ROC 2000 and 2004.  DPP's Chen won in 2000 but if ROC had an electoral college system then KMT rebel Sung would have won.   Same for ROC 2004 where DPP's Chen won but in an electoral college system the KMP-PFP Lien-Sung ticket would have won.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: October 06, 2018, 12:56:33 PM »

2017 - Austria Parliament (201 Electoral Votes, 183 "House" EVs + 2 "Senate" EVs for each state):

Burgenland (9 EV): SPÖ
Carinthia (15 EV): FPÖ
Lower Austria (39 EV): ÖVP
Upper Austria (34 EV): ÖVP
Salzburg (13 EV): ÖVP
Styria (29 EV): ÖVP
Tyrol (17 EV): ÖVP
Vorarlberg (10 EV): ÖVP
Vienna (35 EV): SPÖ

ÖVP: 142 EV (71%), SPÖ: 44 EV (22%), FPÖ: 15 EV (7%)
Actual results: 31.5% ÖVP, 26.9% SPÖ, 26.0% FPÖ

https://www.bmi.gv.at/412/Nationalratswahlen/Wahlkreiseinteilung.aspx

https://wahl17.bmi.gv.at

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2016 - Austria President (Runoff 1.0) (201 Electoral Votes, 183 "House" EVs + 2 "Senate" EVs for each state):

Burgenland (9 EV): Hofer (FPÖ)
Carinthia (15 EV): Hofer (FPÖ)
Lower Austria (39 EV): Hofer (FPÖ)
Upper Austria (34 EV): VdB (Greens)
Salzburg (13 EV): Hofer (FPÖ)
Styria (29 EV): Hofer (FPÖ)
Tyrol (17 EV): VdB (Greens)
Vorarlberg (10 EV): VdB (Greens)
Vienna (35 EV): VdB (Greens)

Hofer: 105 EV (52%), VdB 96 EV (48%)
Actual results: 50.3% VdB, 49.7% Hofer

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2016 - Austria President (Runoff 2.0) (201 Electoral Votes, 183 "House" EVs + 2 "Senate" EVs for each state):

Burgenland (9 EV): Hofer (FPÖ)
Carinthia (15 EV): Hofer (FPÖ)
Lower Austria (39 EV): VdB (Greens)
Upper Austria (34 EV): VdB (Greens)
Salzburg (13 EV): VdB (Greens)
Styria (29 EV): Hofer (FPÖ)
Tyrol (17 EV): VdB (Greens)
Vorarlberg (10 EV): VdB (Greens)
Vienna (35 EV): VdB (Greens)

VdB: 148 EV (74%), Hofer: 53 EV (26%)
Actual results: 53.8% VdB, 46.2% Hofer

http://wahl16.bmi.gv.at
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Former President tack50
tack50
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« Reply #3 on: October 06, 2018, 02:21:04 PM »

those Countries has an electoral-college type system? Does anyone have a list like this?

There are probably a lot of them

Doing it for Spanish elections is somewhat tough since the "states" would be the 17 autonomous communities, but both Congress and the senate assign their seats to the provinces. And in the islands it's even harder because of the Senate constituencies there being the islands, not the provinces.

In any case, here's my rough approximation using the Congress seats+Senate seats in each province, for the Canary/Balearic Islands, they are treated separately, so there are say, 7 Congress EVs and then each island gets then 1 or 3 Senate EVs (kind of like how Maine/Nebraska split their votes).

A sideffect is that since the Congress/Senate ratio is closer than in the US (350/208 instead of 435/100) smaller provinces will be even more overrepresented (thus, more "unfair winners")

(558 EVs, 280 to win).

For Spain I found:

1993:

Lorenzo Olarte (CC): 3 (Lanzarote, Fuerteventura, El Hierro senate)
Iñaki Anasagasti (PNV): 14
Miquel Roca (CiU): 17
Jose María Aznar (PP): 257
Felipe González (PSOE): 267

PSOE: 38.9%
PP: 34.8%

Technically PSOE still wins, but it would go to the house since no candidate would have a majority because of nationalist spoilers. The House may or may not elect González but it probably would. If we are doing VP elections in the Senate as well, same thing would go for VP Narcís Serra.

2004

Paulino Rivero (CC): 2 (La Palma, El Hierro senate)
Josu Erkoreka (PNV): 23
Jose Luis Rodríguez Zapatero (PSOE): 226 (includes Lanzarote senate)
Mariano Rajoy (PP): 307

PSOE: 42.6%
PP: 37.7%

Rajoy wins even though Zapatero wins the popular vote (and by a substantial margin at that).

2008

Ana Oramas (CC): 1 (El Hierro senate)
Jose Luis Rodríguez Zapatero (PSOE): 270
Mariano Rajoy: 287 (includes Mallorca and Fuerteventura senate)

PSOE: 43.9%
PP: 39.9%

More of the same as in 2004.

Seems like Zapatero just ran up the margins against PP in the traditionally nationalist Catalonia and Basque Country. Rajoy got a miserable 6.5% in Barcelona for example!

Fun fact: I once calculated a "what if Catalonia didn't exist" scenario and 2008 was the only election where the results changed (even in 2004 PSOE managed to still eke out a narrow win).
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