2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[Adam Griffin]

Look everybody, if turnout is at or near 2016 levels, then it's not going to be because minorities or young people decided to vote in droves. There's virtually no way that Democrats get into the upper single digits or double digits PV-wise with a turnout that high, because for as much enthusiasm as there might be, only a small percentage of voters who show will be those who haven't voted in at least one previous election of some type. Additionally, only a small percentage of voters have changed their minds since 2016 on anything, and many of those will still have no problem voting for downballot candidates of the same party.

2016 turnout largely means 2016 margins, with a small advantage on top of that for Democrats due to independents shifting. Democrats aren't apathetic this year. We don't need high overall turnout to win: we need our turnout to be high, which is already guaranteed.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1053865575129133056

[Person Man]

The shift among educated and non-educated white voters I suspect change these patterns a bit.

It's clear that low turnout doesn't really hurt Democrats this time around because of their higher enthusiasm and the shift of educated whites. If higher turnout is driven by disenchanted Republicans and no-college whites it'll benefit Republicans, while if it's driven by young people and POC it will benefit Democrats. It's not super clear to me which one of these is more likely to have happened given a high turnout scenario.

It really just comes down to who is motivated and who is lazy.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://twitter.com/MeetThePress/status/1053995130879950848

GCB D+9, 50-41

[GeorgiaModerate]

NBC/WSJ, Oct. 14-17, 900 RV including 645 likely voters (change from Sept.)

Weird divergence in movement between LV and RV:

RV:

D: 48 (-4)
R: 41 (-1)

LV:

D: 50 (+3)
R: 41 (-3)

[Brittain33]

NBC/WSJ, OCt. 14-17, 900 RV including 645 likely voters

Weird divergence in movement between LV and RV:

RV:

D: 48 (-4)
R: 41 (-1)

LV:

D: 50 (+3)
R: 41 (-3)

Doing the math, it means the September survey had RV at 52-42, LV at 47-44. I think the divergence says more about a weird and outdated LV screen in September than anything looking wrong in October.

[GeorgiaModerate]

NBC/WSJ, OCt. 14-17, 900 RV including 645 likely voters

Weird divergence in movement between LV and RV:

RV:

D: 48 (-4)
R: 41 (-1)

LV:

D: 50 (+3)
R: 41 (-3)

Doing the math, it means the June survey had RV at 52-42, LV at 47-44. I think the divergence says more about a weird and outdated LV screen in June than anything looking wrong in October.

The prior poll was in September.  I've edited the OP to mention this, and also to fix the broken link.

[Brittain33]

NBC/WSJ, OCt. 14-17, 900 RV including 645 likely voters

Weird divergence in movement between LV and RV:

RV:

D: 48 (-4)
R: 41 (-1)

LV:

D: 50 (+3)
R: 41 (-3)

Doing the math, it means the June survey had RV at 52-42, LV at 47-44. I think the divergence says more about a weird and outdated LV screen in June than anything looking wrong in October.

The prior poll was in September.  I've edited the OP to mention this, and also to fix the broken link.

Thanks. I'm watching the video and Chuck Todd said this is the first time ever the LV screen shows an advantage for Democrats in a midterm.

Trump approval is uncharacteristically strong
RV: 47-49 (!!!)
LV: 45-52 (!)

[Brittain33]

The NBC/WSJ poll moved the Republicans down .1% in 538's average and nc for Dems.

[Arkansas Yankee]

New poll in AR 2

Hill (R) 51.5%. +2
Tucker (D) 39.5% -1
Swafford (L) 2%
Undecided 7%

Trump approval 54% to 46%.   Trump +9 since September.

The collar counties smoother the State Capitol.
Things are looking good in the 2nd District.

[Brittain33]

New poll in AR 2

Hill (R) 51.5%. +2
Tucker (D) 39.5% -1
Swafford (L) 2%
Undecided 7%

Trump approval 54% to 46%.   Trump +9 since September.

The collar counties smoother the State Capitol.
Things are looking good in the 2nd District.

Looks like this is the poll. They're assuming a 2014-type electorate by age and gender, but not necessarily by party or race.
https://talkbusiness.net/2018/10/poll-hill-maintains-lead-over-tucker-in-second-congressional-district-race/

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[Gass3268]

NBC/WSJ, OCt. 14-17, 900 RV including 645 likely voters

Weird divergence in movement between LV and RV:

RV:

D: 48 (-4)
R: 41 (-1)

LV:

D: 50 (+3)
R: 41 (-3)

Doing the math, it means the June survey had RV at 52-42, LV at 47-44. I think the divergence says more about a weird and outdated LV screen in June than anything looking wrong in October.

The prior poll was in September.  I've edited the OP to mention this, and also to fix the broken link.

Thanks. I'm watching the video and Chuck Todd said this is the first time ever the LV screen shows an advantage for Democrats in a midterm.

Trump approval is uncharacteristically strong
RV: 47-49 (!!!)
LV: 45-52 (!)

It's amazing how many Republicans on twitter are saying this is a good poll for them. All we are seeing is the convergence of Trump's approval and the GCG.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

New poll in AR 2

Hill (R) 51.5%. +2
Tucker (D) 39.5% -1
Swafford (L) 2%
Undecided 7%

Trump approval 54% to 46%.   Trump +9 since September.

The collar counties smoother the State Capitol.
Things are looking good in the 2nd District.

Looks like this is the poll. They're assuming a 2014-type electorate by age and gender, but not necessarily by party or race.
https://talkbusiness.net/2018/10/poll-hill-maintains-lead-over-tucker-in-second-congressional-district-race/

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The population of AR-02 is 75.6% White and 19.4% African American. So I think it is pretty clear they don't have enough African Americans in the sample, if they only have 13%. I guess they are not weighting by race, which I very much doubt is a very good idea. If African Americans were upweighted to a more realistic share of the electorate, that would definitely make this poll quite a bit more competitive.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Either Rasmussen and IBD/TIPP on one side and most of the other polling organizations on the other are going to have proverbial “egg on the face” with respect to the generic vote.+d

By majority vote and traditional midterm leanings I would guess the former will be hit by the eggs.

Or does Rasmussen have a unique method of Polling the Trump world?

Or will You Gov prove to be the best in the middle at D +5 or +6.

Who is pushing the fake news.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1054113813463744517

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1054113813463744517

I'd like to see a religion breakdown, because I remember seeing a while back that non-evangelical non-college whites don't exactly like Trump.

[wbrocks67]

Amy McGrath has the enthusiasm edge and just raised nearly $4 million. Dem turnout in that district in the primary was bananas. But the new WaPo story trying to say her chances are downgrading? Oh ok.

[ON Progressive]

JMC's GA-07 poll got leaked:

Rob Woodall (R-inc) 49
Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) 43

Also, it has Abrams ahead 47-46 in the district, which is very good for a Trump +6 seat.

https://www.scribd.com/document/391316947/GA-07-Polling-Memo-Rob-Woodall-vs-Carolyn-Bourdeaux-October-2018-Bold-Blue-Campaigns-with-JMC-Analytics-and-Polling

[IceSpear]

JMC's GA-07 poll got leaked:

Rob Woodall (R-inc) 49
Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) 43

Also, it has Abrams ahead 47-46 in the district, which is very good for a Trump +6 seat.

https://www.scribd.com/document/391316947/GA-07-Polling-Memo-Rob-Woodall-vs-Carolyn-Bourdeaux-October-2018-Bold-Blue-Campaigns-with-JMC-Analytics-and-Polling

Wow, my model was spot on after all!

GA-7 McLAUGHlin (Woodall internal): Woodall (R-inc) 59, Bourdeaux (D) 32

https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/georgia-7th-why-rob-woodall-feeling-bullish-about-his-house-race/JWHi2rao2TdAvhmBPRg1QI/

Well, if you apply the standard D+20 like you should to all McLaughlin "polls", this looks like a lean/likely R race, as expected.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

JMC's GA-07 poll got leaked:

Rob Woodall (R-inc) 49
Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) 43

Also, it has Abrams ahead 47-46 in the district, which is very good for a Trump +6 seat.

https://www.scribd.com/document/391316947/GA-07-Polling-Memo-Rob-Woodall-vs-Carolyn-Bourdeaux-October-2018-Bold-Blue-Campaigns-with-JMC-Analytics-and-Polling

True if big lol.

[Adam Griffin]

If this is accurate, then Handel may be in more trouble than we realize (given GA-07 fundamentally is a fair bit more GOP than GA-06).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If this is accurate, then Handel may be in more trouble than we realize (given GA-07 fundamentally is a fair bit more GOP than GA-06).

how likely is it we see enough Handel-Abrams voters for her to win?
Is Karen Handel capable of benefiting from split ticket voting?

[Adam Griffin]

If this is accurate, then Handel may be in more trouble than we realize (given GA-07 fundamentally is a fair bit more GOP than GA-06).

how likely is it we see enough Handel-Abrams voters for her to win?
Is Karen Handel capable of benefiting from split ticket voting?

I'd say anywhere from 5-10% of voters will fall into this category; this part of Georgia has had some huge crossover tendencies going all the way back to 2008 (between presidential and down-ballot, anyway). I've been assuming that Handel would win, but that if Abrams has a chance of winning statewide, she'd basically need a respectable majority from GA-06. It's not much help, but you can find my county-level benchmarks for an Abrams majority via interactive maps here.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If this is accurate, then Handel may be in more trouble than we realize (given GA-07 fundamentally is a fair bit more GOP than GA-06).

how likely is it we see enough Handel-Abrams voters for her to win?
Is Karen Handel capable of benefiting from split ticket voting?

I'd say anywhere from 5-10% of voters will fall into this category; this part of Georgia has had some huge crossover support going all the way back to 2008 (between presidential and down-ballot, anyway). I've been assuming that Handel would win, but that if Abrams has a chance of winning statewide, she'd basically need a respectable majority from GA-06.

What would it say if Handel and Abrams somehow both won by double digits?

[Adam Griffin]

If this is accurate, then Handel may be in more trouble than we realize (given GA-07 fundamentally is a fair bit more GOP than GA-06).

how likely is it we see enough Handel-Abrams voters for her to win?
Is Karen Handel capable of benefiting from split ticket voting?

I'd say anywhere from 5-10% of voters will fall into this category; this part of Georgia has had some huge crossover support going all the way back to 2008 (between presidential and down-ballot, anyway). I've been assuming that Handel would win, but that if Abrams has a chance of winning statewide, she'd basically need a respectable majority from GA-06.

What would it say if Handel and Abrams somehow both won by double digits?

I think that might be a bit of a stretch (though high single digits for both is feasible). I could see perhaps a 20-point difference in the margin between the two contests if it's skewed in favor of Handel: maybe 56-44 Handel and 53-45 Abrams.