2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[Sestak]

KSTP/SurveyUSA

FEEHAN 47
HAGEDORN 45

[OneJ]

KSTP/SurveyUSA

FEEHAN 47
HAGEDORN 45

Not too shabby. I’m still worried about this race. Also, some pollster should seriously consider polling MN-08. Especially with the hard to believe result from Siena/NYT.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

KSTP/SurveyUSA

FEEHAN 47
HAGEDORN 45

Strong Lean R.

[Beet]

KSTP/SurveyUSA

FEEHAN 47
HAGEDORN 45

Not too shabby. I’m still worried about this race. Also, some pollster should seriously consider polling MN-08. Especially with the hard to believe result from Siena/NYT.

I would like to see MN-07. It's a very rural district, and if the Republican is ahead by double digits in MN-08...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Update on the 538 GCB tracker:


Dems dipped slightly after a few polls came out that had them up in the 7-8 range, then recovered on the strength of the USC poll. Overall no significant movement. This week has been pretty lacking in GCB polls though, so who knows.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

VA-10 Global Strategy Group (Giffords/D internal): Wexton (D) 49, Comstock (R-inc) 39

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1VVfG2FHshbnb79Gdm60ObsLGUoFy-8Kw/view

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, Oct. 18-19, 1968 RV

D: 45 (+1)
R: 39 (+2)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

VA-10 Global Strategy Group (Giffords/D internal): Wexton (D) 49, Comstock (R-inc) 39

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1VVfG2FHshbnb79Gdm60ObsLGUoFy-8Kw/view

Folks, I can't even begin to say how stupid this is:

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2018/10/17/virginia-10th-race-comstock-wexton-dean-ebof-dnt-vpx.cnn

If anyone of you are Comstock fans and expect her to win, prepare to be disappointed barring a major development of catastrophic proportions for Wexton.

LOL Comstock is so behind, even the cautious Bagel believes she will lose.

Yeah, this race is Safe D.

Snip

Yeah, we are about to witness Comstock entering near inevitable forced retirement.

54-44 loss would be my guess, and that's still being generous.

Oh and did I forget to mention that I will be watching and enjoying every second of her political demise in 18 days

Hopefully with a big tub of popcorn in the movie room too.

[wbrocks67]

USA TODAY/Suffolk poll: There is a 'Kavanaugh effect,' and it boosts Democrats more than the GOP in midterms

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/10/24/brett-kavanaugh-effect-democrats-republicans-midterms-usa-today-suffolk-poll/1739876002/


Americans' anger may help Democrats in Nov. 6 vote: Reuters/Ipsos poll

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-anger/americans-anger-may-help-democrats-in-nov-6-vote-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKCN1MY18T?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social



but but but the pundits tho...

[Person Man]

assmusen Reports:


Democrats 47%(+2 since 7 days ago)
Republican 44%(0 since 7 days ago)

[Florida Man for Crime]

A bunch of house polls for 8 districts from TargetPoint (R). The release is sort of weird: "Surveys were commissioned by a variety of clients of TargetPoint consulting who do not wish to be disclosed."

Also another Dem internal showing FL-15 tied.

It is easiest to view the results via 538, the PDF below is not even complete with full #s:



https://freebeacon.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/TPC-Polling-Memo-Final1.pdf



I don't think I am buying the VA-10... Interesting that they would release PA-01.

[MT Treasurer]

MT-MSU Bozeman poll somehow shows Gianforte pulling off an upset and surviving the Testerslide:

48% Gianforte (R, inc.)
40% Williams (D)
2% Swanson (L)





They also showed TT ahead by just 3.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

A bunch of house polls for 8 districts from TargetPoint (R). The release is sort of weird: "Surveys were commissioned by a variety of clients of TargetPoint consulting who do not wish to be disclosed."

Also another Dem internal showing FL-15 tied.

It is easiest to view the results via 538, the PDF below is not even complete with full #s:



https://freebeacon.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/TPC-Polling-Memo-Final1.pdf



I don't think I am buying the VA-10... Interesting that they would release PA-01.

PA-01 though

[Zaybay]

A bunch of house polls for 8 districts from TargetPoint (R). The release is sort of weird: "Surveys were commissioned by a variety of clients of TargetPoint consulting who do not wish to be disclosed."

Also another Dem internal showing FL-15 tied.

It is easiest to view the results via 538, the PDF below is not even complete with full #s:



https://freebeacon.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/TPC-Polling-Memo-Final1.pdf



I don't think I am buying the VA-10... Interesting that they would release PA-01.

PA-01 though

BuT MuH WeAk ChALLenGeR WaLLaCe. BuT MuH StrONG IncUmBenT FITZ.

[Virginiá]

MT-MSU Bozeman poll somehow shows Gianforte pulling off an upset and surviving the Testerslide:

48% Gianforte (R, inc.)
40% Williams (D)
2% Swanson (L)

https://s3.amazonaws.com/cordillera-network/wp-content/uploads/sites/12/2018/10/23192554/House-Age.png
https://s3.amazonaws.com/cordillera-network/wp-content/uploads/sites/12/2018/10/23192432/House-Females.png
https://s3.amazonaws.com/cordillera-network/wp-content/uploads/sites/12/2018/10/23192513/House-Males.png

They also showed TT ahead by just 3.

If Williams had just gotten a flat-top hair cut, she could have transferred some of the electoral magic from Tester and we wouldn't be having this problem.

[Florida Man for Crime]

If Williams had just gotten a flat-top hair cut, she could have transferred some of the electoral magic from Tester and we wouldn't be having this problem.

She would have had to cut off her fingers as well, which is probably too much of a sacrifice to ask.

[ON Progressive]

I can't buy that Comstock is tied and Wallace is up 4 at the same time tbh, so I’ll ignore those polls.

[Florida Man for Crime]

OH-12: Dem internal has it tied 47-47

https://twitter.com/dannyoconnor1/status/1055120069175447554

[wbrocks67]

PA-01 is shocking for an R internal. It would not surprise me however, like the NYT/Siena poll, that Fitz is in more trouble than CW

[ON Progressive]

OH-12: Dem internal has it tied 47-47

https://twitter.com/dannyoconnor1/status/1055120069175447554

Given that his internals were quite accurate in the special, I can buy this.

[IceSpear]

If Williams had just gotten a flat-top hair cut, she could have transferred some of the electoral magic from Tester and we wouldn't be having this problem.

She would have had to cut off her fingers as well, which is probably too much of a sacrifice to ask.

And gain roughly 200 pounds. And get a sex change.

[Sestak]

Monmouth will have NJ-03 tomorrow.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

We should steal Danny's money and give it to Wallace who actually has a chance.

[Zaybay]

We should steal Danny's money and give it to Wallace who actually has a chance.

Wallace doesnt need money, he has Rick Scott levels of campaign cash.

[Tartarus Sauce]

We should steal Danny's money and give it to Wallace who actually has a chance.

Good thing the DCCC and DSCC don't follow your advice. We lost a seat by one point in a special election that Republicans routinely win by over 20-30 points and that means we stand no chance in November? Imagine how many seats we would still have if the Republicans thought the same way and decided not to put up any serious challengers in 2010 to Democrats that used to cruise to victory, sometimes without any competition.