2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[Ebsy]

Throw it in the average. There are always going to be polls at the lower bounds.

[2016]

Throw it in the average. There are always going to be polls at the lower bounds.

Why would there by a WAVE Election IF

# 1 We've the lowest UE Rate in 50 Years!
# 2 The GDP is rising
etc...

You & many others absolutely ignoring the Economy like it's unimportant. It isn't.

[Nyvin]

Throw it in the average. There are always going to be polls at the lower bounds.

Why would there by a WAVE Election IF

# 1 We've the lowest UE Rate in 50 Years!
# 2 The GDP is rising
etc...

You & many others absolutely ignoring the Economy like it's unimportant. It isn't.

For a lot of people the economy is actually pretty crappy.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Throw it in the average. There are always going to be polls at the lower bounds.

Why would there by a WAVE Election IF

# 1 We've the lowest UE Rate in 50 Years!
# 2 The GDP is rising
etc...

You & many others absolutely ignoring the Economy like it's unimportant. It isn't.

Because Trump is a massive douchebag that everyone but partisan reps are sick of

[Bidenworth2020]

Throw it in the average. There are always going to be polls at the lower bounds.

Why would there by a WAVE Election IF

# 1 We've the lowest UE Rate in 50 Years!
# 2 The GDP is rising
etc...

You & many others absolutely ignoring the Economy like it's unimportant. It isn't.

no one cares about the economy...thats right, trump made no one care about the economy... lmao

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Throw it in the average. There are always going to be polls at the lower bounds.

Why would there by a WAVE Election IF

# 1 We've the lowest UE Rate in 50 Years!
# 2 The GDP is rising
etc...

You & many others absolutely ignoring the Economy like it's unimportant. It isn't.

Please do point us to the last time the economy helped the governing party in a midterm.

[Virginiá]

Why would there by a WAVE Election IF

# 1 We've the lowest UE Rate in 50 Years!
# 2 The GDP is rising
etc...

You & many others absolutely ignoring the Economy like it's unimportant. It isn't.

We're, or at least I am not ignoring it. It's just that it doesn't matter in midterms, and even in presidential elections, non-white voters are largely unmoved by changes in the economy:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/08/12/a-racially-diverse-america-could-make-the-economy-less-important-to-elections/

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Midterms are always referendums on the president and thus, their party. If the economy was so important, Democrats wouldn't have gotten blown out in 1994. The fact is, Trump is the big driver of votes this cycle and his obsession with constantly being at the center of attention, even via controversy, is causing huge problems for the GOP.

Presidential elections are elections where the economy matters more. Republicans might benefit more then, assuming there is no downturn.

[Gass3268]

PEW

47% Democrats (+1)
38% Republicans (-1)

http://www.people-press.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2018/10/Midterm-topline-for-release.pdf

[GeorgiaModerate]

PEW

47% Democrats (+1)
38% Republicans (-1)

http://www.people-press.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2018/10/Midterm-topline-for-release.pdf

This thread moves too fast.  I posted that at lunchtime, and it's already two pages back.

[Yank2133]

Throw it in the average. There are always going to be polls at the lower bounds.

Why would there by a WAVE Election IF

# 1 We've the lowest UE Rate in 50 Years!
# 2 The GDP is rising
etc...

You & many others absolutely ignoring the Economy like it's unimportant. It isn't.

Do you have a short-term memory? The economy grew at a fast rate in 2014 and look what happened to Democrats. No one votes in the mid-term on the economy. Even Republicans know that, which is why they dropped running on tax cuts and switched the culture war issues to gin up excitement.

As for the CNBC poll. That is RV, next time they should try LV screen and see what kind of results they get.

[wbrocks67]

A poll that has 22% undecided this close to the election should be questioned with some scrutiny.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

PPP AK-All

Young (R): 46%
Galvin (D): 43%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1FORloCfXgvaOWcZ80NOdldgrmV9QdJZO/view

[Antonio the Sixth]

That CNBC poll was conducted by POS (aka, the geniuses behind Rasmussen polls).

[GeorgiaModerate]

PPP AK-All

Young (R): 46%
Galvin (D): 43%

This one wouldn't be a bad choice for the bold predictions thread.  I could see it flipping if the wave is big enough.

[Xing]

PPP AK-All

Young (R): 46%
Galvin (D): 43%

This one wouldn't be a bad choice for the bold predictions thread.  I could see it flipping if the wave is big enough.

Don Young always seems like he should be vulnerable, and yet Democrats never make a serious effort to beat him. Maybe this is finally the year that he loses or comes close to losing, but I'm not getting my hopes up. Alaska polling isn't the best.

[wbrocks67]

That CNBC poll was conducted by POS (aka, the geniuses behind Rasmussen polls).

Oh. Major grain of salt. Not to mention it's an RV poll 3 weeks out from the election.

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1051833792145575936?s=19

Why the huge swing in the Iron range ?

Because that's a junk poll.

No, this is a junk poll:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1051939004512460801

This....

It appears to be the creation of an individual who has been on a 3-4 Day Crystal Meth Smoking Binge, in an extremely remote part of Polk or Eastern Clackamas / Marion Counties, conducting an informal poll of aforementioned economically deprived Republican regions of the district.

The more benign or charitable explanation might be that the pollster in question simply accidentally flipped the Democratic and Republican levels of support within the District?

Considering that roughly 35% of the Vote Share of the District is in the relatively Upper-Middle Class Portland Suburbs of Clackamas County, including places such as Lake Oswego and West Linn, not to mention heavily traditionally overwhelmingly Democratic Working Class suburbs such as Milwaukee and Oregon City, that did not experience any significant movements towards Trump in '16, these results are a bit bizarre.

I could certainly see a OR-CD-'05 Rep doing well in the fast growing Exurbs of Happy Valley, although this region of Clackamas did swing significantly Democratic in '16 at the Presidential Level, and is fairly well educated and upper-middle class.

Then we get into Marion County, where Metro Salem accounts for roughly 30% of the District Vote Share, with Salem being a Democratic stronghold, and Keizer being a narrow Trump plurality.

There are tons of smaller communities within Marion County, many of which swung heavily towards Trump '16, but even there it starts to become a bit problematic considering the largest of these is Woodburn, located fairly close to Salem, and an historically Latino Majority City, but now becoming a fast growing Exurban part of Metro PDX as well.

Roll West into Dallas County, and although it is certainly plausible that a Republican REP could improve on '16 margins overall throughout the County, there are still major population Centers (West Salem), which is fairly educated and Middle-Class, heavily Democratic College Twin Cities (Monmouth-Independence), and then of course Dallas, which is the largest Republican population center within the County, but still doesn't account for a huge chunk of the overall vote share, and still isn't an overwhelmingly Republican City.

Move over to the Oregon Coast, and Lincoln County has one the highest % of 65+ within Oregon, but they are generally Democratic leaning Seniors.

Tillamook County, also has a decent % of Seniors, and tends to be a bit swingier...

Generally true rural precincts within this district already tend to be overwhelmingly Republican historically, much of which is a direct result of the "Yankee Farmer Settler Population of the Region", and then once you start heading up into the Hills of the Coast and Cascade Mountain Range, more recently Republican, as a result of the collapse of the logging industry in these communities, and local perceptions that Democratic Statewide officials weren't fighting hard enough for their interests versus those of the "Environmentalists" in Salem and Washington DC.

Simply put: The math does not support anything close to these numbers at all, even if the "Buehler Effect" is causing massive swings in OR-CD-05.

Still.... anybody who believe this poll is anywhere close to reality, needs to immediately file a complaint with the Oregon Attorney Generals Office as a Consumer Complaint against the quality of the Crystal Meth they have consumed.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Throw it in the average. There are always going to be polls at the lower bounds.

Why would there by a WAVE Election IF

# 1 We've the lowest UE Rate in 50 Years!
# 2 The GDP is rising
etc...

You & many others absolutely ignoring the Economy like it's unimportant. It isn't.

There's a reason 2018 is only D+6 to D+8 instead of D+10 to D+12. The economy.

[GeorgiaModerate]

A bad economy hurts the party in power more than a good one helps it.  When the economy is bad, it's very much on people's minds.  But when it's good, it recedes from the forefront and is replaced by other issues.

[psychprofessor]

PPP AK-All

Young (R): 46%
Galvin (D): 43%

This one wouldn't be a bad choice for the bold predictions thread.  I could see it flipping if the wave is big enough.

Don Young always seems like he should be vulnerable, and yet Democrats never make a serious effort to beat him. Maybe this is finally the year that he loses or comes close to losing, but I'm not getting my hopes up. Alaska polling isn't the best.

He's fortunate that the last few cycles have had third party candidates split the vote. He really needs to lose - way too old and bigoted.

[Devils30]

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2018/10/15/curbelo-almost-tied-with-challenger-in-tough-congressional-seat-for-gop-649478

Curbelo +1 at 46-45 in Mason-Dixon FL-26 poll. Nelson +8. Trump at 41/46.

Considering Mason-Dixon's GOP lean, this is a pretty ominous poll for Curbelo in a Clinton +16 district. Possible Nelson is up more than 8 here as well and considering he usually runs ahead of other Dems with whites, it puts Scott in a hole.

[Ebsy]

That CNBC poll was conducted by POS (aka, the geniuses behind Rasmussen polls).

Wow, so this is up from the tie they showed last week!

[Tender Branson]

NY-27 (Siena):

46% Rep. Chris Collins (R)
43% Nate McMurray (D)

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https://www.wivb.com/news/local-news/collins-holds-narrow-lead-over-mcmurray-in-new-poll/1527443959

This district was Trump+25 and Collins+35 in 2016.

[Tender Branson]

NY-27 (Siena):

46% Rep. Chris Collins (R)
43% Nate McMurray (D)

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https://www.wivb.com/news/local-news/collins-holds-narrow-lead-over-mcmurray-in-new-poll/1527443959

This district was Trump+25 and Collins+35 in 2016.

Trump and the Rs are popular in the district, but Collins is significantly under water with his favourables, while the Democrat has +14 favourables (but 40% don't know him).

[ON Progressive]

NY-27 (Siena):

46% Rep. Chris Collins (R)
43% Nate McMurray (D)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.wivb.com/news/local-news/collins-holds-narrow-lead-over-mcmurray-in-new-poll/1527443959

This district was Trump+25 and Collins+35 in 2016.

19% of Dems for Collins? Wow, some voters really ARE incredibly dumb.