2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3
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  2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3  (Read 130990 times)
Virginiá
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« Reply #1400 on: October 14, 2018, 03:46:03 PM »
^^ excellent point!
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #1401 on: October 14, 2018, 03:53:53 PM »
Holding the Senate was supposed to be a longshot for Republicans ever since they lost Alabama.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1402 on: October 14, 2018, 03:58:04 PM »
Quote from: #KavanaughForPrison on October 14, 2018, 03:53:53 PM
Holding the Senate was supposed to be a longshot for Republicans ever since they lost Alabama.

That's now how I remember it. The argument was that Democrats taking the Senate was an impossibility until Jones won Alabama, and then it became possible if Dems won NV and AZ and held all their seats. What's happened in the last month is that this last part is crumbling with Heitkamp's bad poll numbers and Republicans coalescing behind Blackburn and Cruz.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1403 on: October 14, 2018, 03:59:30 PM »
Quote from: #KavanaughForPrison on October 14, 2018, 03:53:53 PM
Holding the Senate was supposed to be a longshot for Republicans ever since they lost Alabama.

Not in this universe.  Winning Alabama made flipping the Senate a long, but at least possible, shot for Democrats.  Before that, they had no plausible chance.
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new_patomic
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« Reply #1404 on: October 14, 2018, 04:01:36 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 14, 2018, 03:59:30 PM
Quote from: #KavanaughForPrison on October 14, 2018, 03:53:53 PM
Holding the Senate was supposed to be a longshot for Republicans ever since they lost Alabama.

Not in this universe.  Winning Alabama made flipping the Senate a long, but at least possible, shot for Democrats.  Before that, they had no plausible chance.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1405 on: October 14, 2018, 06:18:57 PM »
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #1406 on: October 14, 2018, 07:26:43 PM »
Today was the first day Democrats crossed 50 in the 538 tracker's new GCB methodology. In the old model, there was only one point where this also happened (the week of Christmas, last year).
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1407 on: October 14, 2018, 07:53:43 PM »
Quote from: Fmr. Pres. Griff on October 14, 2018, 07:26:43 PM
Today was the first day Democrats crossed 50 in the 538 tracker's new GCB methodology.

You're the third person to remark on that... the first was me, two pages ago. Tongue

Anyway, to Nate's point about House and Senate polls, one possibility is that GCB polls are a leading indicator. I seem to remember that when Democrats surged in early September their district-by-district polls took a while to catch up. That's just speculation on my part, though - I don't think we have enough evidence for that.
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junior chįmp
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« Reply #1408 on: October 14, 2018, 07:57:04 PM »
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1409 on: October 14, 2018, 08:03:41 PM »
Quote from: Mondale on October 14, 2018, 07:57:04 PM


Heller: 8%
Rosen: 6%

Undecided: 86%
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #1410 on: October 14, 2018, 08:06:12 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on October 14, 2018, 08:03:41 PM
Quote from: Mondale on October 14, 2018, 07:57:04 PM


Heller: 8%
Rosen: 6%

Undecided: 86%

Emerson headline: Heller SURGES to EPIC lead, DESTROYING Rosen. Coming next: how many Nevadans support legal pot *long string of obnoxious emojis*
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1411 on: October 14, 2018, 08:12:26 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on October 14, 2018, 08:03:41 PM
Quote from: Mondale on October 14, 2018, 07:57:04 PM


Heller: 8%
Rosen: 6%

Undecided JEB!: 86%
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Xing
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« Reply #1412 on: October 14, 2018, 08:16:17 PM »
Great, just what we need, a NV poll from a junk pollster Roll Eyes.

Atlas if Heller's ahead: OMG, Heller's ahead in another poll! He's actually going to win! I knew Rosen was a joke candidate! Tilt/Lean R!

Atlas if Heller's behind: OMG, Heller's only behind by _____, and don't forget he was ahead in the NYT poll! He could still win! I knew Rosen was a joke candidate! Toss-Up!
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OneJ
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« Reply #1413 on: October 14, 2018, 08:35:08 PM »
Quote from: Mondale on October 14, 2018, 07:57:04 PM


I assume they think we're supposed to be excited about this?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1414 on: October 14, 2018, 08:46:04 PM »
lol now Emerson needs Vistaprint to sponsor their made up polls?
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #1415 on: October 15, 2018, 02:02:40 AM »
Someone tell what is going on in MN-08? Stauber (R) leading the latest NY poll by 15 points. This is a Dem held seat with a retiring incumbent.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #1416 on: October 15, 2018, 02:19:50 AM »
Quote from: Sir Mohamed on October 15, 2018, 02:02:40 AM
Someone tell what is going on in MN-08? Stauber (R) leading the latest NY poll by 15 points. This is a Dem held seat with a retiring incumbent.

Personally, I think it's an outlier. With this many polls, a few are bound to be outliers. If this was a rural Southern district, perhaps. I really doubt the Iron Range has become a strong bastion of Trumpism.
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #1417 on: October 15, 2018, 05:24:49 AM »
http://wasoncenter.cnu.edu/taylor-leads-luria-by-7pts-in-va-cd-2-preserves-lead-among-most-committed-voters/

VA-2 CNU Wason: Taylor (R-inc) 50, Luria (D) 43
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #1418 on: October 15, 2018, 06:22:49 AM »

The result isn’t ridiculous, but them having Kaine only up 47-42 in this seat is.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1419 on: October 15, 2018, 06:40:23 AM »

But muh petitions
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1420 on: October 15, 2018, 07:13:25 AM »

Yeah, I mean I'm not surprised if Taylor is winning but there's no way Kaine is only up +5... Northam even won by 4 and Stewart is an abomination
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SN2903
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« Reply #1421 on: October 15, 2018, 07:36:08 AM »
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/mn/minnesota_8th_district_stauber_vs_radinovich-6355.html

Looks like the Kavanaugh bump is everywhere! #RedWave2018!
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1422 on: October 15, 2018, 07:41:12 AM »
Quote from: SN2903 on October 15, 2018, 07:36:08 AM
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/mn/minnesota_8th_district_stauber_vs_radinovich-6355.html

Looks like the Kavanaugh bump is everywhere! may be showing up in WWC districts Trump did unexpectedly well in! #RedWave2018!

We've been tracking that poll on the UPSHOT polls thread. If you see NYTimes/Siena, that means it's an Upshot poll.

I merged this post into the megathread for House polls. Also, a small edit to your post in my quote of it.
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #1423 on: October 15, 2018, 07:51:08 AM »
Quote from: Brittain33 on October 15, 2018, 07:41:12 AM
Quote from: SN2903 on October 15, 2018, 07:36:08 AM
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/mn/minnesota_8th_district_stauber_vs_radinovich-6355.html

Looks like the Kavanaugh bump is everywhere! may be showing up in WWC districts Trump did unexpectedly well in! #RedWave2018!

We've been tracking that poll on the UPSHOT polls thread. If you see NYTimes/Siena, that means it's an Upshot poll.

I merged this post into the megathread for House polls. Also, a small edit to your post in my quote of it.

Can you blame him for not being good at comprehension though?
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #1424 on: October 15, 2018, 08:26:31 AM »
Emerson polling lol

http://hwcdn.libsyn.com/p/2/1/7/217c0300d1cde9c2/Emerson_College_Polling_Weekly_Episode_74.mp3?c_id=24009809&cs_id=24009809&expiration=1539609387&hwt=51b426f88471752024aab5be68f67054

NH-1: Pappas (D) 40, Edwards (R) 35

NH-2: Kuster (D-inc) 44, Negron (R) 25

NV-1: Titus (D-inc) 50, Bentley (R) 20

NV-2: Amodei (R-inc), 23 Koble (D) 16

NV-3: Lee (D) 41, Tarkanian (R) 39

NV-4: Horsford (D) 36 Hardy (R) 34
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