2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[Yank2133]

It is very possible that the Democrats could wind the House vote by a large number but not win the House. If they get very high number in safe/likely seat they hold while gaining in some of the safe/likely seat that they Republicans have. But in the toss-up ones they don't get the support to win. (Not saying this is what will happen)

Someones been on twitter.

Nate Cohn laying out his doomsday scenario lol.

Anyway, he raises a good point. However, I think he is underselling the fact that the party out of power tends to over perform the district only polls.

Yeah, but Kavanaugh changed the game for the GOP like I said it would. What happened to all my naysayers saying that nobody pays attention to the Supreme Court?

He didn't really change the game looking at the senate polls. But I don't have time for your concern trolling.

[GeorgiaModerate]

RCP and 538 don't lie. The burden of proof is on Red Avatars to numerically prove that a collapse isn't happening.

The 2 most recent polls are D +8.

And the 538 average is D+7.8, which is about where it was through almost all of July and August, and higher than it was from April through June.  The margin expanded in September but has now returned to the July-August level.  This is not a "collapse" by any reasonable interpretation.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I just wish they'd flush that D +2 poll away. I don't know why they gave it twice the weight of the D +12 poll, which had twice as many respondents.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I just wish they'd flush that D +2 poll away. I don't know why they gave it twice the weight of the D +12 poll, which had twice as many respondents.

Because it's a live interview poll (the other one isn't) by a pollster with a better track record.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

It is very possible that the Democrats could wind the House vote by a large number but not win the House. If they get very high number in safe/likely seat they hold while gaining in some of the safe/likely seat that they Republicans have. But in the toss-up ones they don't get the support to win. (Not saying this is what will happen)

.  

Someones been on twitter.

Nate Cohn laying out his doomsday scenario lol.

Anyway, he raises a good point. However, I think he is underselling the fact that the party out of power tends to over perform the district only polls.

Yeah, but Kavanaugh changed the game for the GOP like I said it would. What happened to all my naysayers saying that nobody pays attention to the Supreme Court?

He didn't really change the game looking at the senate polls. But I don't have time for your concern trolling.

Is it trolling to say that Cruz, Blackburn, Cramer, and Hawley are pulling away?

[BudgieForce]

My gut tells me we'll be getting a few "not so great for democrats" polls this weeks. Blue avatars will come around and gloat and red avatars will get demoralized. Probably a good week to take off of this forum in all honesty. Really considering doing just that myself.

[Virginiá]

My gut tells me we'll be getting a few "not so great for democrats" polls this weeks. Blue avatars will come around and gloat and red avatars will get demoralized. Probably a good week to take off of this forum in all honesty. Really considering doing just that myself.

All that I really care about is the final 3 weeks, polling-wise. I like seeing Democrats up big obviously, but I have learned after 3 years being on here that polls constantly go up and down in the run-up to an election, but the final few weeks tends to show a lasting shift that is far more important than whatever was happening prior to that.

I think Republicans are getting a little too giddy too fast over the Kavanaugh situation though. I don't know exactly what effect it will have, but I do know it's more likely to peter out than leave a deep mark on the election. 2016's crazy series of events in September/October is a more recent example of why that is.

[KingSweden]

It is very possible that the Democrats could wind the House vote by a large number but not win the House. If they get very high number in safe/likely seat they hold while gaining in some of the safe/likely seat that they Republicans have. But in the toss-up ones they don't get the support to win. (Not saying this is what will happen)

.  

Someones been on twitter.

Nate Cohn laying out his doomsday scenario lol.

Anyway, he raises a good point. However, I think he is underselling the fact that the party out of power tends to over perform the district only polls.

Yeah, but Kavanaugh changed the game for the GOP like I said it would. What happened to all my naysayers saying that nobody pays attention to the Supreme Court?

He didn't really change the game looking at the senate polls. But I don't have time for your concern trolling.

Is it trolling to say that Cruz, Blackburn, Cramer, and Hawley are pulling away?

The first three? Nah, though I think they’ve had advantages for a while rather than pulling away. Hawley I’ve seen no evidence for, unless you regard McLolghlin as evidence

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The first three? Nah, though I think they’ve had advantages for a while rather than pulling away. Hawley I’ve seen no evidence for, unless you regard McLolghlin as evidence

Or as I call it, McLoglin, because they're a big stinky log.

[Yank2133]

It is very possible that the Democrats could wind the House vote by a large number but not win the House. If they get very high number in safe/likely seat they hold while gaining in some of the safe/likely seat that they Republicans have. But in the toss-up ones they don't get the support to win. (Not saying this is what will happen)

.  

Someones been on twitter.

Nate Cohn laying out his doomsday scenario lol.

Anyway, he raises a good point. However, I think he is underselling the fact that the party out of power tends to over perform the district only polls.

Yeah, but Kavanaugh changed the game for the GOP like I said it would. What happened to all my naysayers saying that nobody pays attention to the Supreme Court?

He didn't really change the game looking at the senate polls. But I don't have time for your concern trolling.

Is it trolling to say that Cruz, Blackburn, Cramer, and Hawley are pulling away?

There is no proof that Hawley is pulling away.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Well you heard NYC Millenial Minority guys, the Democrats will get blown out in November, the GOP will gain seats, and the Presidency will be Republican forever.  

Might as well just tear down Democratic party and register as Republicans.  

Yeah, you might as well join the GOP at this point.

I would but I just can't afford to be Republican yet. Maybe if I get a promotion or something, I'll be making enough.

Let me know when you get that promotion and I'll remind you , good luck =)

[Bidenworth2020]

It is very possible that the Democrats could wind the House vote by a large number but not win the House. If they get very high number in safe/likely seat they hold while gaining in some of the safe/likely seat that they Republicans have. But in the toss-up ones they don't get the support to win. (Not saying this is what will happen)

.  

Someones been on twitter.

Nate Cohn laying out his doomsday scenario lol.

Anyway, he raises a good point. However, I think he is underselling the fact that the party out of power tends to over perform the district only polls.

Yeah, but Kavanaugh changed the game for the GOP like I said it would. What happened to all my naysayers saying that nobody pays attention to the Supreme Court?

He didn't really change the game looking at the senate polls. But I don't have time for your concern trolling.

Is it trolling to say that Cruz, Blackburn, Cramer, and Hawley are pulling away?

I guess it is not trolling, but highly misleading.

[BudgieForce]

My gut tells me we'll be getting a few "not so great for democrats" polls this weeks. Blue avatars will come around and gloat and red avatars will get demoralized. Probably a good week to take off of this forum in all honesty. Really considering doing just that myself.

All that I really care about is the final 3 weeks, polling-wise. I like seeing Democrats up big obviously, but I have learned after 3 years being on here that polls constantly go up and down in the run-up to an election, but the final few weeks tends to show a lasting shift that is far more important than whatever was happening prior to that.

I think Republicans are getting a little too giddy too fast over the Kavanaugh situation though. I don't know exactly what effect it will have, but I do know it's more likely to peter out than leave a deep mark on the election. 2016's crazy series of events in September/October is a more recent example of why that is.

Even ignoring 2016, all you have to do is look at the Manafort/Cohen drama. The entire thing fell out of the American conscious in under 2 weeks.

But even then, I'd bet my bottom dollar we get a few low single digit generic ballot leads this week and probably a Rasmussen poll showing a Republican lead. The generic ballot average will continue to tighten and we'll get multiple articles about republicans turning a corner/democrats blowing it. But we have 5 weeks till the election, thats an absolute eternity in politics. All the hand wringing is gonna be incredibly annoying in the mean time but democrats should count themselves lucky republicans didnt draw this out any longer than they did.

[Person Man]

My gut tells me we'll be getting a few "not so great for democrats" polls this weeks. Blue avatars will come around and gloat and red avatars will get demoralized. Probably a good week to take off of this forum in all honesty. Really considering doing just that myself.

All that I really care about is the final 3 weeks, polling-wise. I like seeing Democrats up big obviously, but I have learned after 3 years being on here that polls constantly go up and down in the run-up to an election, but the final few weeks tends to show a lasting shift that is far more important than whatever was happening prior to that.

I think Republicans are getting a little too giddy too fast over the Kavanaugh situation though. I don't know exactly what effect it will have, but I do know it's more likely to peter out than leave a deep mark on the election. 2016's crazy series of events in September/October is a more recent example of why that is.

Even ignoring 2016, all you have to do is look at the Manafort/Cohen drama. The entire thing fell out of the American conscious in under 2 weeks.

But even then, I'd bet my bottom dollar we get a few low single digit generic ballot leads this week and probably a Rasmussen poll showing a Republican lead. The generic ballot average will continue to tighten and we'll get multiple articles about republicans turning a corner/democrats blowing it. But we have 5 weeks till the election, thats an absolute eternity in politics. All the hand wringing is gonna be incredibly annoying in the mean time but democrats should count themselves lucky republicans didnt draw this out any longer than they did.

That just sounds.. awful.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1049006057358614530

[BudgieForce]

My gut tells me we'll be getting a few "not so great for democrats" polls this weeks. Blue avatars will come around and gloat and red avatars will get demoralized. Probably a good week to take off of this forum in all honesty. Really considering doing just that myself.

All that I really care about is the final 3 weeks, polling-wise. I like seeing Democrats up big obviously, but I have learned after 3 years being on here that polls constantly go up and down in the run-up to an election, but the final few weeks tends to show a lasting shift that is far more important than whatever was happening prior to that.

I think Republicans are getting a little too giddy too fast over the Kavanaugh situation though. I don't know exactly what effect it will have, but I do know it's more likely to peter out than leave a deep mark on the election. 2016's crazy series of events in September/October is a more recent example of why that is.

Even ignoring 2016, all you have to do is look at the Manafort/Cohen drama. The entire thing fell out of the American conscious in under 2 weeks.

But even then, I'd bet my bottom dollar we get a few low single digit generic ballot leads this week and probably a Rasmussen poll showing a Republican lead. The generic ballot average will continue to tighten and we'll get multiple articles about republicans turning a corner/democrats blowing it. But we have 5 weeks till the election, thats an absolute eternity in politics. All the hand wringing is gonna be incredibly annoying in the mean time but democrats should count themselves lucky republicans didnt draw this out any longer than they did.

That just sounds.. awful.

Why I think its a good week to take a break from everything political. Its gonna be a rough week for anybody rooting for a blue wave.

[Person Man]

My gut tells me we'll be getting a few "not so great for democrats" polls this weeks. Blue avatars will come around and gloat and red avatars will get demoralized. Probably a good week to take off of this forum in all honesty. Really considering doing just that myself.

All that I really care about is the final 3 weeks, polling-wise. I like seeing Democrats up big obviously, but I have learned after 3 years being on here that polls constantly go up and down in the run-up to an election, but the final few weeks tends to show a lasting shift that is far more important than whatever was happening prior to that.

I think Republicans are getting a little too giddy too fast over the Kavanaugh situation though. I don't know exactly what effect it will have, but I do know it's more likely to peter out than leave a deep mark on the election. 2016's crazy series of events in September/October is a more recent example of why that is.

Even ignoring 2016, all you have to do is look at the Manafort/Cohen drama. The entire thing fell out of the American conscious in under 2 weeks.

But even then, I'd bet my bottom dollar we get a few low single digit generic ballot leads this week and probably a Rasmussen poll showing a Republican lead. The generic ballot average will continue to tighten and we'll get multiple articles about republicans turning a corner/democrats blowing it. But we have 5 weeks till the election, thats an absolute eternity in politics. All the hand wringing is gonna be incredibly annoying in the mean time but democrats should count themselves lucky republicans didnt draw this out any longer than they did.

That just sounds.. awful.

Why I think its a good week to take a break from everything political. Its gonna be a rough week for anybody rooting for a blue wave.

What do you see happening afterwards?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I did see an article for Arizona that said most of the undecideds were very anti-Kavanaugh, so the Kavanaugh stuff sure isn't helping Republicans.

[BudgieForce]

What do you see happening afterwards?

Probably a reversion back to pre-Kavanaugh levels on the Generic Ballot. But I'm sure some of that is wishful thinking on my part.

As for the senate races, well so far we havent seen much movement in any of them so I'm not entirely sure whats going to happen.

[Virginiá]

This might be interesting to those who believe the fundamentals will be mostly driving the actual result. This idea came up a number of times in 2016, when major events were thought to permanently damage either of the candidates, only for the race to contract back to the same range of support it had been at all along:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/07/upshot/2018-midterms-house-polling-competitive.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The general idea would be that these elections are largely set in stone long before election day, and polling shows shifts back and forth, but they aren't really that meaningful, and often can be attributed to the above theory - that each side just gets more receptive to answering polls during good/bad periods for their party.


Also this:

[quote]
The possibility that the Kavanaugh nomination is helping Republicans in Republican-leaning areas is important because the fight for control of both the House and the Senate will be determined largely in Republican-leaning areas. This simple fact has always been the G.O.P.’s biggest advantage. If the electorate is polarized along the lines of recent presidential elections, as it was during the Obama presidency, Republicans could hold down their losses considerably.

Democrats have been considered clear favorites in the fight for House control because polls and special election results have made it seem that the electorate wouldn’t be so polarized, allowing them to compete in many Republican-leaning districts. But if Democrats can’t break through and actually carry the many Republican-leaning districts they’ve put into play, Republicans could stay highly competitive in the fight for House control and even survive a wave election.
[/quote

Although so far it doesn't seem like that will be the case at all.

[Brittain33]

Is it trolling to say that Cruz, Blackburn, Cramer, and Hawley are pulling away?

Yes, because other than for Cramer where he does look to have pulled away from Heitkamp, it implies both velocity and distance that are not supported by all of the polls.

[Figueira]

Is it trolling to say that Cruz, Blackburn, Cramer, and Hawley are pulling away?

Yes, because other than for Cramer where he does look to have pulled away from Heitkamp, it implies both velocity and distance that are not supported by all of the polls.

Maybe Cramer, Blackburn, and Cruz (though none of those are guaranteed). I don't see any evidence of this in Missouri, though.

[IceSpear]

I like how the D hacks have seamlessly transitioned from "Kavanaugh will help the Democrats" to "Kavanaugh will have no effect" to "Kavanaugh will hurt the Democrats but only temporarily."

[libertpaulian]

I like how the D hacks have seamlessly transitioned from "Kavanaugh will help the Democrats" to "Kavanaugh will have no effect" to "Kavanaugh will hurt the Democrats but only temporarily."

I honestly think Kavanaugh will wound the Dems slightly in Senatorial races, make a negligible difference (no difference at all, really) in governor and state legislative races, and slightly boost House candidates.

I don't think it's crazy to say it can be a mix of all three.

[IceSpear]

I like how the D hacks have seamlessly transitioned from "Kavanaugh will help the Democrats" to "Kavanaugh will have no effect" to "Kavanaugh will hurt the Democrats but only temporarily."

I honestly think Kavanaugh will wound the Dems slightly in Senatorial races, make a negligible difference (no difference at all, really) in governor and state legislative races, and slightly boost House candidates.

I don't think it's crazy to say it can be a mix of all three.

That's a reasonable take. Nuance was certainly not to be found on this subject until recently though.