2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[TheRocketRaccoon]

http://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/NPA3147-ECU-VA-07-Poll-Memo-1.pdf

VA-7 Normington Petts (for End Citizens United): Spanberger (D) 47, Brat (R-inc) 47

[mencken]

How is it possible for Pew's poll to have Democrats up 58 - 39 with white college grads, but then only 57 - 38 with college graduates of all races? Non-white college grads are significantly more Democratic than white college grads, even if they are slightly less Democratic than non-white non-college voters.

Shouldn't the total college grads (white/non-white) be > white college grad %?

White college grads also includes postgrads, whereas the regular college grad excludes postgrads (that is another category in that crosstab).

That would explain it. Postgrads are quite a Democratic group, and have been for a while. Does anyone know why postgrads have always been significantly more Democratic than "normal" college educated folks (like those with bachelor degrees)?

Quick facetious one-liner answer - because they are smarter than regular college grads

Real answer - because the same factors that make college-educated voters more likely to be Democratic also make them more likely to be Democratic, such as being more likely than 4 year college grads to have jobs as "knowledge-worker professionals" which is associated with voting Dem.

Meanwhile those who use their degree to become productive members of society (e.g. businessmen, chemical engineers, CPAs, etc.) tend to vote GOP.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

How is it possible for Pew's poll to have Democrats up 58 - 39 with white college grads, but then only 57 - 38 with college graduates of all races? Non-white college grads are significantly more Democratic than white college grads, even if they are slightly less Democratic than non-white non-college voters.

Shouldn't the total college grads (white/non-white) be > white college grad %?

White college grads also includes postgrads, whereas the regular college grad excludes postgrads (that is another category in that crosstab).

That would explain it. Postgrads are quite a Democratic group, and have been for a while. Does anyone know why postgrads have always been significantly more Democratic than "normal" college educated folks (like those with bachelor degrees)?

Quick facetious one-liner answer - because they are smarter than regular college grads

Real answer - because the same factors that make college-educated voters more likely to be Democratic also make them more likely to be Democratic, such as being more likely than 4 year college grads to have jobs as "knowledge-worker professionals" which is associated with voting Dem.

Meanwhile those who use their degree to become productive members of society (e.g. businessmen, chemical engineers, CPAs, etc.) tend to vote GOP.

Productive members of society (by your standards) also include: scientists, professors, teachers, engineers, lawyers, writers, astrophysicists, etc. these tend to vote Democrat.

What is your point?

[Virginiá]

Meanwhile those who use their degree to become productive members of society (e.g. businessmen, chemical engineers, CPAs, etc.) tend to vote GOP.

Productive members of society also include: scientists, professors, teachers, engineers, lawyers, writers, astrophysicists, etc. these tend to vote Democrat.

What is your point?

He's just nursing some smug, misguided notion that conservatives/Republicans are primarily responsible for the modern world, an idea so preposterous that it doesn't even deserve a rebuttal.

Oh, well, unless he wants to assign responsibility for the extreme horrors of runaway capitalism and the corruption and inequality it has left in its wake. By all means, Republicans and their obscenely business-centric worldview can lay claim to that!

[Nyvin]

How is it possible for Pew's poll to have Democrats up 58 - 39 with white college grads, but then only 57 - 38 with college graduates of all races? Non-white college grads are significantly more Democratic than white college grads, even if they are slightly less Democratic than non-white non-college voters.

Shouldn't the total college grads (white/non-white) be > white college grad %?

White college grads also includes postgrads, whereas the regular college grad excludes postgrads (that is another category in that crosstab).

That would explain it. Postgrads are quite a Democratic group, and have been for a while. Does anyone know why postgrads have always been significantly more Democratic than "normal" college educated folks (like those with bachelor degrees)?

Quick facetious one-liner answer - because they are smarter than regular college grads

Real answer - because the same factors that make college-educated voters more likely to be Democratic also make them more likely to be Democratic, such as being more likely than 4 year college grads to have jobs as "knowledge-worker professionals" which is associated with voting Dem.

Meanwhile those who use their degree to become productive members of society (e.g. businessmen, chemical engineers, CPAs, etc.) tend to vote GOP.

I'm assuming you mean professions still dominated by old white men.

[Ebsy]

Looking like NYT/Sienna poll of NJ-03 is going to end up at Kim +10, 49-39 over incumbent Rep. Tom MacArthur. Pretty dire numbers for the GOP in suburban NJ.

[CookieDamage]

Meanwhile those who use their degree to become productive members of society (e.g. businessmen, chemical engineers, CPAs, etc.) tend to vote GOP.

Productive members of society also include: scientists, professors, teachers, engineers, lawyers, writers, astrophysicists, etc. these tend to vote Democrat.

What is your point?

He's just nursing some smug, misguided notion that conservatives/Republicans are primarily responsible for the modern world, an idea so preposterous that it doesn't even deserve a rebuttal.

Oh, well, unless he wants to assign responsibility for the extreme horrors of runaway capitalism and the corruption and inequality it has left in its wake. By all means, Republicans and their obscenely business-centric worldview can lay claim to that!

And that's why Mencken has been muted for several months now. Cute that he has a yellow avatar.

[colincb]

How is it possible for Pew's poll to have Democrats up 58 - 39 with white college grads, but then only 57 - 38 with college graduates of all races? Non-white college grads are significantly more Democratic than white college grads, even if they are slightly less Democratic than non-white non-college voters.

Shouldn't the total college grads (white/non-white) be > white college grad %?

White college grads also includes postgrads, whereas the regular college grad excludes postgrads (that is another category in that crosstab).

That would explain it. Postgrads are quite a Democratic group, and have been for a while. Does anyone know why postgrads have always been significantly more Democratic than "normal" college educated folks (like those with bachelor degrees)?

Quick facetious one-liner answer - because they are smarter than regular college grads

Real answer - because the same factors that make college-educated voters more likely to be Democratic also make them more likely to be Democratic, such as being more likely than 4 year college grads to have jobs as "knowledge-worker professionals" which is associated with voting Dem.

Meanwhile those who use their degree to become productive members of society (e.g. businessmen, chemical engineers, CPAs, etc.) tend to vote GOP.

Productive members of society (by your standards) also include: scientists, professors, teachers, engineers, lawyers, writers, astrophysicists, etc. these tend to vote Democrat.

What is your point?

Engineers are Democrats by a 71%-29% margin based on campaign contributions. Civil, chemical, and mechanical engineers are barely more Republican than Democratic in their campaign donations while aerospace, electrical, and nuclear engineers are barely more Democratic than Republican. When you get to structural, electronic, environmental, and software engineers, however, they are very Democratic in their contributions.

http://verdantlabs.com/politics_of_professions/index.html

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Generic Ballot Pennsylvania-

Democrats: 51%
Republicans: 36%

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/84925965295991296-f-m-poll-release-september-2018.pdf

[Comrade Funk]

Generic Ballot Pennsylvania-

Democrats: 51%
Republicans: 36%

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/84925965295991296-f-m-poll-release-september-2018.pdf

Yea...no way Fitzpatrick survives if this is even remotely true.

[windjammer]

Generic Ballot Pennsylvania-

Democrats: 51%
Republicans: 36%

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/84925965295991296-f-m-poll-release-september-2018.pdf

Yea...no way Fitzpatrick survives if this is even remotely true.

I would like to have polls as well for the Eyrie and Harrisburg districts.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

MI GCB: D+8 (49-41)

https://media.woodtv.com/nxs-woodtv-media-us-east-1/document_dev/2018/09/26/epic-mra-september-2018-poll_1538003491349_56985396_ver1.0.pdf

[Brittain33]

How is it possible for Pew's poll to have Democrats up 58 - 39 with white college grads, but then only 57 - 38 with college graduates of all races? Non-white college grads are significantly more Democratic than white college grads, even if they are slightly less Democratic than non-white non-college voters.

Shouldn't the total college grads (white/non-white) be > white college grad %?

White college grads also includes postgrads, whereas the regular college grad excludes postgrads (that is another category in that crosstab).

That would explain it. Postgrads are quite a Democratic group, and have been for a while. Does anyone know why postgrads have always been significantly more Democratic than "normal" college educated folks (like those with bachelor degrees)?

Quick facetious one-liner answer - because they are smarter than regular college grads

Real answer - because the same factors that make college-educated voters more likely to be Democratic also make them more likely to be Democratic, such as being more likely than 4 year college grads to have jobs as "knowledge-worker professionals" which is associated with voting Dem.

Meanwhile those who use their degree to become productive members of society (e.g. businessmen, chemical engineers, CPAs, etc.) tend to vote GOP.

I'm a Dem with an MBA who works in the private sector, but thanks for playing.

[GeorgiaModerate]

How is it possible for Pew's poll to have Democrats up 58 - 39 with white college grads, but then only 57 - 38 with college graduates of all races? Non-white college grads are significantly more Democratic than white college grads, even if they are slightly less Democratic than non-white non-college voters.

Shouldn't the total college grads (white/non-white) be > white college grad %?

White college grads also includes postgrads, whereas the regular college grad excludes postgrads (that is another category in that crosstab).

That would explain it. Postgrads are quite a Democratic group, and have been for a while. Does anyone know why postgrads have always been significantly more Democratic than "normal" college educated folks (like those with bachelor degrees)?

Quick facetious one-liner answer - because they are smarter than regular college grads

Real answer - because the same factors that make college-educated voters more likely to be Democratic also make them more likely to be Democratic, such as being more likely than 4 year college grads to have jobs as "knowledge-worker professionals" which is associated with voting Dem.

Meanwhile those who use their degree to become productive members of society (e.g. businessmen, chemical engineers, CPAs, etc.) tend to vote GOP.

I'm a Dem with an MBA who works in the private sector, but thanks for playing.

And I'm a currently D-voting indie with an MS in Systems Analysis working in a private sector engineering job.  But I'm sure mencken will consider us both to be outliers.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

MI GCB: D+8 (49-41)

https://media.woodtv.com/nxs-woodtv-media-us-east-1/document_dev/2018/09/26/epic-mra-september-2018-poll_1538003491349_56985396_ver1.0.pdf

I thought I saw it saying 52-40% Dem in the article?

[Zaybay]

How is it possible for Pew's poll to have Democrats up 58 - 39 with white college grads, but then only 57 - 38 with college graduates of all races? Non-white college grads are significantly more Democratic than white college grads, even if they are slightly less Democratic than non-white non-college voters.

Shouldn't the total college grads (white/non-white) be > white college grad %?

White college grads also includes postgrads, whereas the regular college grad excludes postgrads (that is another category in that crosstab).

That would explain it. Postgrads are quite a Democratic group, and have been for a while. Does anyone know why postgrads have always been significantly more Democratic than "normal" college educated folks (like those with bachelor degrees)?

Quick facetious one-liner answer - because they are smarter than regular college grads

Real answer - because the same factors that make college-educated voters more likely to be Democratic also make them more likely to be Democratic, such as being more likely than 4 year college grads to have jobs as "knowledge-worker professionals" which is associated with voting Dem.

Meanwhile those who use their degree to become productive members of society (e.g. businessmen, chemical engineers, CPAs, etc.) tend to vote GOP.

I'm a Dem with an MBA who works in the private sector, but thanks for playing.

And I'm a currently D-voting indie with an MS in Systems Analysis working in a private sector engineering job.  But I'm sure mencken will consider us both to be outliers.

Im personally stunned by the concept that "Knowledge based workers dont do anything". I guess we can live without doctors, or lawyers, or physiologists, or architects, or scientists, or accountants, or economists, or writers, or historians, or teachers, or literally all other white collar professionals.

[Gustaf]

Most Republicans Believe the US would be better off if there were no universities so it's hardly surprising. People who vote for joke parties are bound to hold a lot of joke opinions.

[Very Legal & Very Cool]

How is it possible for Pew's poll to have Democrats up 58 - 39 with white college grads, but then only 57 - 38 with college graduates of all races? Non-white college grads are significantly more Democratic than white college grads, even if they are slightly less Democratic than non-white non-college voters.

Shouldn't the total college grads (white/non-white) be > white college grad %?

White college grads also includes postgrads, whereas the regular college grad excludes postgrads (that is another category in that crosstab).

That would explain it. Postgrads are quite a Democratic group, and have been for a while. Does anyone know why postgrads have always been significantly more Democratic than "normal" college educated folks (like those with bachelor degrees)?

Quick facetious one-liner answer - because they are smarter than regular college grads

Real answer - because the same factors that make college-educated voters more likely to be Democratic also make them more likely to be Democratic, such as being more likely than 4 year college grads to have jobs as "knowledge-worker professionals" which is associated with voting Dem.

Meanwhile those who use their degree to become productive members of society (e.g. businessmen, chemical engineers, CPAs, etc.) tend to vote GOP.

I'm a Dem with an MBA who works in the private sector, but thanks for playing.

And I'm a currently D-voting indie with an MS in Systems Analysis working in a private sector engineering job.  But I'm sure mencken will consider us both to be outliers.

Im personally stunned by the concept that "Knowledge based workers dont do anything". I guess we can live without doctors, or lawyers, or physiologists, or architects, or scientists, or accountants, or economists, or writers, or historians, or teachers, or literally all other white collar professionals.

Isn't one of the core aspects of capitalism that those who contribute more have higher value? Who are these people using their degrees to become unproductive members of society and who is paying for their student loans? Soros?

[TheRocketRaccoon]

MI GCB: D+8 (49-41)

https://media.woodtv.com/nxs-woodtv-media-us-east-1/document_dev/2018/09/26/epic-mra-september-2018-poll_1538003491349_56985396_ver1.0.pdf

I thought I saw it saying 52-40% Dem in the article?

It's weird, 52-40 want Dems to take control of Congress, but when it comes to 'voting US Congress from your area', it's 49-41.

[Zaybay]

MI GCB: D+8 (49-41)

https://media.woodtv.com/nxs-woodtv-media-us-east-1/document_dev/2018/09/26/epic-mra-september-2018-poll_1538003491349_56985396_ver1.0.pdf

I thought I saw it saying 52-40% Dem in the article?

It's weird, 52-40 want Dems to take control of Congress, but when it comes to 'voting US Congress from your area', it's 49-41.

Not really. What you are seeing is the classic "I hate congress, but I like my congressional representative" effect. While people in NY-24 may want a D congress, they dont want to see Katko go, while people in WV-03 may want an R house, but may also vote for Ojeda. People have different relations with their representative than with congress as a whole, which is why seats like TX-23, PA-01, and CA-39 are going to be harder to win for the Dems, while seats like NJ-03, VA-07, and VA-02 will be easier than the GCB would suggest.

[mencken]

How is it possible for Pew's poll to have Democrats up 58 - 39 with white college grads, but then only 57 - 38 with college graduates of all races? Non-white college grads are significantly more Democratic than white college grads, even if they are slightly less Democratic than non-white non-college voters.

Shouldn't the total college grads (white/non-white) be > white college grad %?

White college grads also includes postgrads, whereas the regular college grad excludes postgrads (that is another category in that crosstab).

That would explain it. Postgrads are quite a Democratic group, and have been for a while. Does anyone know why postgrads have always been significantly more Democratic than "normal" college educated folks (like those with bachelor degrees)?

Quick facetious one-liner answer - because they are smarter than regular college grads

Real answer - because the same factors that make college-educated voters more likely to be Democratic also make them more likely to be Democratic, such as being more likely than 4 year college grads to have jobs as "knowledge-worker professionals" which is associated with voting Dem.

Meanwhile those who use their degree to become productive members of society (e.g. businessmen, chemical engineers, CPAs, etc.) tend to vote GOP.

I'm a Dem with an MBA who works in the private sector, but thanks for playing.

And I'm a currently D-voting indie with an MS in Systems Analysis working in a private sector engineering job.  But I'm sure mencken will consider us both to be outliers.

You are correct, anecdotal evidence is indeed not a compelling counterargument to a claim about overall group differences.

I was speaking in jest, but I would be curious as to how the overall college-educated vote would go if "knowledge-worker professionals", underwater basket-weaving professors, baristas, psychologists, etc. were excluded.

[libertpaulian]

Will Dems get a Kavanaugh bump when next week's polls are released?

[Skye]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1045357470879809541

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1045357470879809541

That's fine. This is a conservative district. He can get indicted and get replaced by another Republican whenever.

[Zaybay]

Will Dems get a Kavanaugh bump when next week's polls are released?

Republicans on other websites seem to be apocalyptic and saying turnout is going to tank and whatnot. Some also saying they’ll vote blank or Democratic out of spite lol

But I doubt 90% of voters will care much about this either way in a week, much less six weeks

Whats important about this is the fact that its happening in September/October, where most voters actually tune in to see what the hell is going on. This will definitely move some votes, perhaps not enough to justify a large gain, but there will be a gain nonetheless, my guess being 0.25-0.5% nationally, especially if this stuff stays in the news.