Bold Predictions: September Edition

[progressive85]

The Democrats are very underestimated in taking the Senate.  Yes the map is bad, but this is the right year to have this map in.  Nevada, Arizona, Tennessee, and Texas will decide the Senate more than any of the "Trump state" Democratic incumbents.

The Brett Kavanaugh Disaster, which gets worse by the day, is putting a big spotlight on Mitch McConnell's tenuous, over-reaching 1-seat Senate majority.  No Senate Democrat is voting for Brett Kavanaugh now - it would be the most partisan of railroad jobs at the worst time ever.

[NewYorkExpress]

Democrats pick up a net of 80 seats in the House.

Democrats gain a net of three seats in the Senate, picking up Texas, Arizona and Nevada, while losing no seats.

Andrew Cuomo gets more total votes than Kirsten Gillibrand.

Chris McDaniel is elected in the Mississippi Senate Special runoff.

Democrats gain nine governor's mansions, and lose none.

Bill Walker finishes in third place in Alaska-GOV.

[SCNCmod]

Same as last time...

Dem James Smith easily wins SC Governor (2 pts or more).
Beto eeks out the Texas Senate.

[Confused Democrat]

Democrats pick up a net of 80 seats in the House.

Democrats gain a net of three seats in the Senate, picking up Texas, Arizona and Nevada, while losing no seats.

Andrew Cuomo gets more total votes than Kirsten Gillibrand.

Chris McDaniel is elected in the Mississippi Senate Special runoff.

Democrats gain nine governor's mansions, and lose none.

Bill Walker finishes in third place in Alaska-GOV.

N U T

[TML]

Democrats win the national house PV by 12 points, giving them a total of 250 seats in the House, and 53 in the Senate.

[libertpaulian]

Democrats win the national house PV by 12 points, giving them a total of 250 seats in the House, and 53 in the Senate.

I wouldn't say that's bold these days...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

States can split between Gov and Senate, like TX, FL, AZ and TN. TN is supporting single-phase health insurance. As far as Beto, Cruz has scandals😁

[MT Treasurer]

Most of these would really only be considered "bold" by Atlas, but whatever:

- Cramer's "gaffe" will have virtually zero impact on the outcome of the election, and the entire Kavanaugh controversy actually ends up hurting Heitkamp and other deep red state Democrats.
- Jon Tester comes closer to losing than Ted Cruz.
- The polls actually overestimate Heitkamp this time.  
- Matt Rosendale wins Yellowstone County.
- FL-SEN is decided by 1.5% or less, with Nelson doing 3-4 points worse than Gillum (who I’m pretty sure will win FL-GOV) despite anectodal "evidence" to the contrary.
- Coffman, Comstock and Paulsen all do much worse than Rod Blum, Bruce Poliquin and Andy Barr.
- Molly Kelly wins NH-GOV by 3% or so even if Republicans outperform expectations nationally (I know, I know, how could a white woman with a D next to her name possibly beat a member of the anti-women hate group in a Clinton state that rejected the GOP even in recent wave elections. How bold!)
- Hurd wins (narrowly, perhaps) even as Democrats flip one or both of TX-07/32.
- The same party wins all of IN-SEN, ND-SEN, TN-SEN and MO-SEN.
- MN-01, MN-02, MN-03 and MN-08 are all either won by Democrats or (more likely IMO) they all flip.
- GA-GOV goes to a runoff which is decided by less than 2%.
- MS-SEN goes to a runoff which quickly becomes fairly competitive.
- Polling underestimates all NV Democrats (!!!).
- Sisolak does better than Mills.
- Rosen wins by more than Tester and Brown.

And, the safest prediction ever:
-Even after Kelly, Kuster and Pappas win by decent margins, Atlas will still claim that New Hampshire is the most likely Clinton state to flip, and is even more likely to go Republican than Michigan or Pennsylvania. A poll showing Trump "only" losing New Hampshire by three will "confirm" to Atlas that New Hampshire is still a Toss-Up state despite having two Democratic Senators, a Democratic Governor, two out of two Democratic representatives, and having voted Democratic in the last four presidential elections.

[SCNCmod]

. As far as Beto, Cruz has scandals😁

What does this mean?  I hope such is the case... but wouldn't any major scandals have come out during the presidential primary ... or his 1st Senate election?

[GeorgiaModerate]

By 9 PM on Election Night, there will be at least two dozen incorrect hot takes on Atlas.

OK, that one isn't actually all that bold.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

John Sununu wins by a decent margin. MT Treasurer ignores the results.

[IceSpear]

John Sununu wins by a decent margin. MT Treasurer ignores the results.

John Sununu only beats Jeanne Shaheen in his wet dreams (or is it nightmares?)

[Hammy]

Dems fall short of taking the House by less than five seats after the Kavanaugh drive up GOP turnout
GOP net gain of 2-3 in the Senate

[morgieb]

By 9 PM on Election Night, there will be at least two dozen incorrect hot takes on Atlas.

OK, that one isn't actually all that bold.

If anything predicting that there'll be less than 24 incorrect hot takes is the bold prediction.

[Torrain]

A popular governor at the end of their political career will lose their campaign for Senate.

[Vern]

2016 all over again. Polls are wrong and republicans do well on election night.

[Politician]

2016 all over again. Polls are wrong and republicans do well on election night.

Lol, Democrats won a Senate election in Alabama and a House election in a Trump +20 district. Keep wet dreaming.

[GeorgiaModerate]

2016 all over again. Polls are wrong and republicans the non-presidential party do well on election night.

FTFY

[Vern]

2016 all over again. Polls are wrong and republicans the non-presidential party do well on election night.

FTFY

2016 all over again. Polls are wrong and republicans do well on election night.

Lol, Democrats won a Senate election in Alabama and a House election in a Trump +20 district. Keep wet dreaming.

This is called the Bold prediction thread... So I gave a bold prediction....

[TML]

A popular governor at the end of their political career will lose their campaign for Senate.

Is the individual you are referring to currently in office or not?

[GeorgiaModerate]

2016 all over again. Polls are wrong and republicans the non-presidential party do well on election night.

FTFY

2016 all over again. Polls are wrong and republicans do well on election night.

Lol, Democrats won a Senate election in Alabama and a House election in a Trump +20 district. Keep wet dreaming.

This is called the Bold prediction thread... So I gave a bold prediction....

Fair enough.  It was definitely bold.

[aaroncd107]

-NJ-05 is the only district in NJ to flip. This is because Menendez's campaign tanks in the last couple weeks, and he only wins by a single percentage point
-At least one Democrat announces their presidential campaign on Election Day.
-CT-05 is the only district Republicans win in New England
-Ojeda runs ahead of Manchin
-A Cruz sex tape drops in October, causing him to lose by more than Heller
-Republicans are massacred in NC. The 2nd, 7th, 9th, and 13th districts flip, and it takes a while to call the 11th for Mark Meadows. The lower house of the legislature flips, and Republicans hold the upper house by razor thin margins.
-Comstock, Brat, and Taylor all lose, but Brat falls the hardest.
-Donnelly performs best of the 5 Democrats in states Trump won by more than 10 points
-Gretchen Whitmer wins more total votes than JB Pritzker
-Nunes loses, but Duncan Hunter and Chris Collins survive.
-3 Kansas districts flip
-Democrats win GA-GOV, GA-LG, GA-AG, GA-SOS without runoffs

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

1. Democrats narrowly win the house with 222 seats
2. Republicans gain 2 seats in the senate to have 53 seats

[aaroncd107]

1. Democrats narrowly win the house with 222 seats
2. Republicans gain 2 seats in the senate to have 53 seats

that's not very B O L D

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

-NJ-05 is the only district in NJ to flip. This is because Menendez's campaign tanks in the last couple weeks, and he only wins by a single percentage point
-At least one Democrat announces their presidential campaign on Election Day.
-CT-05 is the only district Republicans win in New England
-Ojeda runs ahead of Manchin
-A Cruz sex tape drops in October, causing him to lose by more than Heller
-Republicans are massacred in NC. The 2nd, 7th, 9th, and 13th districts flip, and it takes a while to call the 11th for Mark Meadows. The lower house of the legislature flips, and Republicans hold the upper house by razor thin margins.
-Comstock, Brat, and Taylor all lose, but Brat falls the hardest.
-Donnelly performs best of the 5 Democrats in states Trump won by more than 10 points
-Gretchen Whitmer wins more total votes than JB Pritzker
-Nunes loses, but Duncan Hunter and Chris Collins survive.
-3 Kansas districts flip
-Democrats win GA-GOV, GA-LG, GA-AG, GA-SOS without runoffs

Dang that’s bold!