Bold Predictions: September Edition

[wesmoorenerd]

List your bold predictions here! I'll start by spitballing a few:

- Dems take control of the House without flipping a single seat in Florida

- Chris Collins and Duncan Hunter are barely impacted by their scandals and win by only slightly below average margins

- Young Kim wins by a surprisingly large margin

- Eight GOP House incumbents lose by double digits (Rothfus, Blum, Comstock, Paulsen, Coffman, Lewis, Young, and Yoder)

- Jared Golden wins despite coming in second in the first round of voting

- Exactly zero Democratic seats (other than PA-14, which barely even counts) flip in the House

- TX-SEN ends up within a point either way

- Bill Nelson wins by high single digits while Heidi Heitkamp simultaneously loses by high single digits

- Peter King wins by less than David Valadao

- To nobody's surprise but IceSpear's, Randy Bryce comes within five points of winning

[IceSpear]

Actually, Iron Deadbeat Jailbird losing by "only" 5 wouldn't really surprise me in a Democratic tsunami scenario. Just because I think it's safe R doesn't mean I think he's guaranteed to lose by 20+ points, it just means I don't see any semi-realistic path to victory for him. And if I'm supposedly the only one who would be surprised, why is it in the "bold predictions" thread?

Anyway, are we talking bold by Atlas standards, or bold by "conventional wisdom" standards? Because these two are very different things. For example, if it was the former, I'd say "Republicans will easily win the Oklahoma gubernatorial race and Democrats will easily win the Nevada Senate race." If it was the latter, I'd say "Democrats will easily win the Nevada Senate race."

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dem women candidates buck the trend and win and Nelson and Tester loses. Meanwhile, Dems take control by winning g TN,TX and MSb.😁

[RedPrometheus]

Heitkamp will win and it won't be that close.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Devin Nunes loses.

[Zaybay]

Near the end of the election, a "coming home" effect will occur in OK for the Republicans, and MD/NH for the Democrats. The whole forum will then switch talking about how great Jealous/Kelly/Stintt are, and how bad/screwed(insert incumbent) is. The race will end with MD and OK going Republican, and a low digit victory in NH for Sununu.

[Politician]

CA-39 doesn't flip.
Richard Ojeda wins despite being behind in polling.
One of FL-06, FL-15, FL-16, or FL-18 flips.
Steve King has a close call, and only wins by single digits.
Kara Eastman wins easily despite the race being rated Lean R.
Scott Taylor gets blanched.

Drew Edmondson and Larry Hogan hold up and still win in the end.
Scott Walker loses by mid single digits.
Mike Dunleavy wins with under 40% of the vote.

Ted Cruz wins by only 1 point.
Phil Bredesen wins.
Heitkamp loses by mid single digits.
Donnelly does better than Tester.

[Frodo]

-Democrats win between 55 to 60 seats in the House, taking the chamber.

-Democrats net-gain two seats in the Senate, taking that chamber

-Stacey Abrams wins the Georgia governor's race in the initial election by just over 50%, avoiding a run-off.

-Beto O'Rourke beats Sen. Ted Cruz after numerous recounts.

-----------------------------------------

I'm not going into detail on the governor's races (apart from the one I mentioned) and the legislatures, save that Democrats in January 2019 will likely be in very good condition heading into the 2020 redistricting cycle. 

[Brittain33]

Red tide means that Scott underperforms on the Gulf Coast and loses to Nelson by a significant margin. 

[Rhenna]

- Heidi Heitkamp easily wins.
- The closest Senate race is Texas.
- Phil Scott loses to Christine Hallquist
- Cindy Hyde-Smith gets over 50% of the vote.
- Wisconsin is much closer than expected.
- All GOP candidates besides Wittman, Griffith, and Cline lose in VA.

[libertpaulian]

HOUSE:
Democrats gain 65 seats in the House.  
A few surprise winners of the night are Bryce, Ojeda, Aftab, Axne, Bordeaux, Spanberger, Harbaugh, and Longjohn.  
Chris Collins and Duncan Hunter go down.  
All the vulnerable California Republicans lose, except for Young Kim.  
Steve King comes surprisingly close to losing, but the lack of an urban core in the district helps him survive.
The only Republican members of Virginia's congressional delegation come January 2019 are Cline, Griffith, and Wittman.  
Democrats pick up 3 or 4 seats in North Carolina.
Democrats pick up 2 or 3 seats in Florida.
Democrats win all the seats deemed vulnerable in Illinois.
Democrats don't lose any of their "vulnerable" seats.
One of Elise Stefanik, Lee Zeldin, or Peter King will be the shocking defeat of the night.
New Jersey and New Mexico will have unanimously Democratic congressional delegations in the new Congress.

SENATE:
Democrats hold all of their seats and flip NV, AZ, and TN.  
The closest race is ND, in which Heitkamp wins by a few hundred votes thanks to Cramer pulling an Akin.  
TX is as just about as close as ND, although I think either one wins by around one percent.
Donnelly will win in the ballpark of 2-4%.  
Baldwin will outperform Smith (MN).  
McCaskill wins by 2%.  
Tester does better than Donnelly.  
Nelson defeats Scott by the same margin that Scott defeated Sink in 2010.  
Kaine wins with over 60% of the vote, which mortally wounds the VAGOP down the ballot.
Manchin outperforms Tester.  
Stabenow and Klobuchar win by absolute massacre margins, which help to flip seats in their states.

GOVERNOR:
Democrats flip IL, IA, WI, MI, OH, KS, ME, GA, FL, OK, NM, AZ, and NV.  Republicans flip AK.  
Smith in SC and Dean in TN come short by low-single digits.  
Cordray wins by 2% with a little help from Sherrod Brown.  
Gillum wins by 3%.  
Abrams wins by 1-3% and barely avoids the runoff.  
Hubbell wins by low-single digits.  
Evers defeats Walker by the same margin that Walker defeated Barrett in 2010.  
Whitmer wins by 10-12%.
Kelly wins by less than 1%.  
Mills wins by low-single digits.  
Edmondson wins by 1-2%.  
Lujan-Grisham wins in the range of 9-11%.  
Garcia wins by low-single digits, riding on Sinema's coattails.  
Sisolak wins by mid-single digits.

[Brittain33]

Charlie Baker wins only by 10 points.

[Bidenworth2020]

To all- CA-39 staying the same is not "BOLD" in any sense, lol.

[here2view]

Heidi Heitkamp has the highest margin of defeat for an incumbent in a Senate race.

B L A N C H E D

[here2view]

Nelson wins by high single digits.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Cruz will win.

Somehow this is considered a bold prediction these days, so much has Beto-mania clouded everyone's thinking.

[Xing]

-Rossi will lose by more than Herrera-Beutler will win
-WI-08, IN-09, and MI-01 will be closer than people expect
-Claudia Tenney will lose by double digits
-Laura Kelly will win
-Kara Eastman will win
-MN-01 will flip Republican, but MN-08 won't

Trigger warning for Atlas:

-Rosen will win by more than Sinema or Tester
-Sisolak will win by more than Gillum or Mills
-NV-03 and NV-04 won't be close

And, the safest prediction ever:
-Even after Rosen and Sisolak win by decent margins, Atlas will still claim that Nevada is the most likely Clinton state to flip, and is even more likely to go Republican than Michigan or Pennsylvania. A poll showing Trump "only" losing Nevada by three will "confirm" to Atlas that Nevada is still a Toss-Up state despite having two Democratic Senators, a Democratic Governor, three out of four Democratic representatives, and having voted Democratic in the last three presidential elections.

[Skill and Chance]

House

-Dems pick up 4 or fewer seats in CA but still take the House
-FL-27 only flips by low single digits, no other Dem pickups in FL
-Hurd wins easily in TX-23 while at least one of TX-07/TX-32 flips
-One of GA-06/07 and/or one of the previously Safe R seats in NC flips (in addition to NC-09)
-VA-02 flips easily with Northam Republican voters going Dem
-Dems flip all of the competitive NJ seats
-WV-03 is an easy R hold and Barr wins KY-06 by 4ish
-Bryce flips WI-01, possibly after a recount

Senate

-Heitkamp gets triaged and loses by 7-12%
-Bredesen wins, possibly after a recount
-TX-SEN looks like one of the Obama/Bush era midterm elections in VA, 0-2% either way and quite possibly goes to a recount
-Sinema wins more easily than Rosen, but both win
-At least one other Dem-held seat flips in addition to ND
-Senate control in doubt for quite a while after election night
-FL-SEN is a 1-3% affair either way

Governor/State Legislative
-Gillum outruns Nelson by at least 3% and wins
-the lower house flips in NC
-GA-GOV goes to a runoff and Abrams wins by 2-5% with a yuge Dem turnout advantage
-Whitmer wins by double digits, the lower house flips and the state senate is very close
-Walker loses, probably not close
-Ducey wins easily, but Dems have a good chance of winning/tying the state senate
-Newsom only wins by 10-15%, a lot of "is CA past peak Dem?" commentary follows
-Begich wins AK with Walker in 3rd
-All of the Republican governors in the Northeast hold on, Hogan gets enough Republicans into the lower house to sustain his vetoes

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Paul Davis wins.

[Devout Centrist]

--Either Jacky Walorski or Trey Hollingsworth will lose
--Ducey loses his reelection bid
--Either Phil Scott or Chris Sununu lose their reelection bid
--Democrats take control of the Senate
--Cisneros wins CA-39
--Menendez comes within 5 points of losing

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

Every Democratic incumbent in the House and Senate win re-election. Clown Bacon loses.

[progressive85]

The midterm has presidential turnout.
It is a complete repudiation of 2016.
Donald Trump is left so badly injured from the election that he begins to have episodes of severe paranoia and begins firing people fast.  This only makes him seem more unstable.  By mid-2019, a large majority of the country wants him gone - before 2021.

[TarHeelDem]

-Dems retake the House with a net gain of at least 40 seats.
-Three of the Dems' gains are from NC.
-Dems hold all their seats in the Senate while gaining NV, AZ, TN, & TX, giving them control of the chamber.
-Manchin wins by double digits.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The midterm has presidential turnout.
It is a complete repudiation of 2016.
Donald Trump is left so badly injured from the election that he begins to have episodes of severe paranoia and begins firing people fast.  This only makes him seem more unstable.  By mid-2019, a large majority of the country wants him gone - before 2021.

Does this imply a senate flip?

[tallguy23]

-Dems retake the House with a net gain of at least 40 seats.
-Three of the Dems' gains are from NC.
-Dems hold all their seats in the Senate while gaining NV, AZ, TN, & TX, giving them control of the chamber.
-Manchin wins by double digits.

My feelings too. Plus the Gubernatorial races will be a bloodbath.