PA-Morning Call/Muhlenberg College: Casey +18
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 24, 2024, 07:39:07 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls
  PA-Morning Call/Muhlenberg College: Casey +18
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: PA-Morning Call/Muhlenberg College: Casey +18  (Read 2377 times)
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 21, 2018, 01:57:35 PM »

Casey (D-inc) 53
Barletta (R) 35

http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/pennsylvania/mc-morning-call-muhlenberg-poll-pennsylvania-catholic-church-20180921-htmlstory.html
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2018, 01:58:11 PM »

Hofoid and Beet told me Pennsylvania is a red state though.
Logged
Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,826


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2018, 02:12:47 PM »

Hofoid and Beet told me Pennsylvania is a red state though.

That is why Casey can only manage to poll 53%, despite being an INCUMBENT and having INCUMBENCY ADVANTAGE. Don't you know about INCUMBENCY ADVANTAGE?
Logged
Beet
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,904


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2018, 02:16:33 PM »

Hofoid and Beet told me Pennsylvania is a red state though.

Tim Johnson's 62% win in 2008 means that South Dakota was a blue state then, right?
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 21, 2018, 02:20:56 PM »

Hofoid and Beet told me Pennsylvania is a red state though.

Tim Johnson's 62% win in 2008 means that South Dakota was a blue state then, right?

That would be a better argument than the argument that PA is a red state just because of plurality wins of under 1% with a lower share of the vote than GWB in 2004 (who lost PA).
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,283
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2018, 02:36:18 PM »

I dont see him winning by more than 12, but obviously hes heavily favored.
Logged
Doimper
Doctor Imperialism
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,030


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 21, 2018, 02:41:33 PM »

Wow, 47% of voters not supporting Casey. Tossup, imo
Logged
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,994
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 21, 2018, 02:52:21 PM »

Barletta: 47% of Pennsylvanians oppose the Casey agenda!
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,676
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 21, 2018, 02:58:41 PM »

Casey and Wolf will win by 10
Logged
Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,505
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 21, 2018, 03:32:15 PM »

This doesn't make me think PA won't necessarily be competitive in 2020, because Barletta has run a garbage campaign.
Logged
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,994
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 21, 2018, 03:33:33 PM »

This doesn't make me think PA won't necessarily be competitive in 2020, because Barletta has run a garbage campaign.

Nobody has said PA won't be competitive in 2020, it's that it's probably going to favor whoever the Dem nominee is. You're right that Barletta being absolute trash is boosting Casey.
Logged
mds32
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,090
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 21, 2018, 03:41:07 PM »

Hofoid and Beet told me Pennsylvania is a red state though.

Tim Johnson's 62% win in 2008 means that South Dakota was a blue state then, right?

That would be a better argument than the argument that PA is a red state just because of plurality wins of under 1% with a lower share of the vote than GWB in 2004 (who lost PA).

No neither argument is strong or right.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: September 21, 2018, 03:54:22 PM »

Hofoid and Beet told me Pennsylvania is a red state though.

Tim Johnson's 62% win in 2008 means that South Dakota was a blue state then, right?

That would be a better argument than the argument that PA is a red state just because of plurality wins of under 1% with a lower share of the vote than GWB in 2004 (who lost PA).

No neither argument is strong or right.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think it's a good argument either.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: September 21, 2018, 05:42:21 PM »

Barletta has been one of the biggest candidate flameouts of the cycle. He was supposed to be a strong candidate who could re-create the Trump coalition and potentially make this race a toss up, LOL.
Logged
Hindsight was 2020
Hindsight is 2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,388
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: September 22, 2018, 10:29:13 AM »

I fail to see how Fitzpatrick survives with the top ticket being this lopsided
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: September 22, 2018, 03:08:07 PM »

I fail to see how Fitzpatrick survives with the top ticket being this lopsided

Gerlach survived a similarly lopsided top of the ticket in 2006, and Fitzpatrick's brother almost did. But yeah, it ain't 2006 anymore.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,198


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: September 23, 2018, 03:09:31 PM »

I fail to see how Fitzpatrick survives with the top ticket being this lopsided

If the margins are anywhere as close to this, I think Wallace will be dragged over the finish line.

But tbh, the way that Fitz is going so nasty in his ads makes me think this race isn't as pro-Fitz as pundits like to think.
Logged
Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,828


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: September 24, 2018, 06:55:27 PM »

I wonder what a county map would look like with a Dem winning PA by 18 points. I worry that that Dems would just be getting North Korean like levels of support in Philly and Pittsburgh, and getting slaughtered less badly in the center and southwest. Seeing Hillary losing Erie and even almost losing Scranton was scary to see.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: September 24, 2018, 07:11:29 PM »

I wonder what a county map would look like with a Dem winning PA by 18 points. I worry that that Dems would just be getting North Korean like levels of support in Philly and Pittsburgh, and getting slaughtered less badly in the center and southwest. Seeing Hillary losing Erie and even almost losing Scranton was scary to see.

Casey actually won by 18 points in 2006, so it would be pretty cool to see a 2006-2018 swing map if he had a similar margin this time. It might even be sig worthy. Smiley

I don't think he actually wins by 18 though. Barletta's numbers will probably improve a bit as we get closer to election day and his name recognition goes up. But the prospect of him even getting it within single digits is starting to look like a stretch.
Logged
Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,636
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: September 25, 2018, 08:11:35 AM »

I haven't seen a single Barletta ad.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,198


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: September 25, 2018, 08:17:41 AM »


I actually haven't seen many Barletta OR Wagner ads. If anything, I've been seeing a TON of Wolf ads. Not much for Casey but they are sparingly. I'm in Montco btw. Wolf ads air every day multiple times in the morning when I have the TV on.

Also, tons of Kim/MacArthur ads and Wallace/Fitzpatrick ads.
Logged
Comrade Funk
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,176
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -5.91

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: September 25, 2018, 08:25:14 AM »


I actually haven't seen many Barletta OR Wagner ads. If anything, I've been seeing a TON of Wolf ads. Not much for Casey but they are sparingly. I'm in Montco btw. Wolf ads air every day multiple times in the morning when I have the TV on.

Also, tons of Kim/MacArthur ads and Wallace/Fitzpatrick ads.
Seen any Hugin ads? From Bucks and have seen a couple.
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,325
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: September 25, 2018, 03:54:41 PM »

Hofoid and Beet told me Pennsylvania is a red state though.

Tim Johnson's 62% win in 2008 means that South Dakota was a blue state then, right?

No one ever said that. Ever.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,198


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: September 25, 2018, 06:27:44 PM »


I actually haven't seen many Barletta OR Wagner ads. If anything, I've been seeing a TON of Wolf ads. Not much for Casey but they are sparingly. I'm in Montco btw. Wolf ads air every day multiple times in the morning when I have the TV on.

Also, tons of Kim/MacArthur ads and Wallace/Fitzpatrick ads.
Seen any Hugin ads? From Bucks and have seen a couple.

Yep, I've been seeing a few. A couple pro-Hugin and a couple anti-Hugin. Some anti-Menendez but can't say I've seen a whole lot of pro-Menendez ones
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: September 26, 2018, 01:55:10 AM »


The fact that Barletta still has a name recognition problem in late September says a lot about the state of his campaign.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.062 seconds with 13 queries.