From 2018 To Beyond: Starting with Detailed 2018 Election Night Coverage

[2016]

I'd rather be Braun than Donnelly in IN-SEN looking at the Congressional Races from that State. 70+% is counted in IN-1 (that's a Democrat stronghold). Likewise IN-7 (Indianpolis Metro & Suburbs) is counted half (50 %).
Republicans holding IN-8, IN-9. All of the sudden doesn't look so bad for the GOP considering how bad the Early Exits were.

VA which closes soon is big on the House...3 competitive Seats VA-10 (Comstock), VA-5 and VA-2. Senate should be a cakewalk for Kaine.

VA-07 instead of (or in addition to) VA-05, right?

I think VA has 4 competitive House Districts this year
VA-2 (Taylor)
VA-5 (Open, Garrett retiring)
VA-7 (Brat)
VA-10 (Comstock)

[erſatz-york]

I'd rather be Braun than Donnelly in IN-SEN looking at the Congressional Races from that State. 70+% is counted in IN-1 (that's a Democrat stronghold). Likewise IN-7 (Indianpolis Metro & Suburbs) is counted half (50 %).
Republicans holding IN-8, IN-9. All of the sudden doesn't look so bad for the GOP considering how bad the Early Exits were.

VA which closes soon is big on the House...3 competitive Seats VA-10 (Comstock), VA-5 and VA-2. Senate should be a cakewalk for Kaine.

VA-07 instead of (or in addition to) VA-05, right?

I think VA has 4 competitive House Districts this year
VA-2 (Taylor)
VA-5 (Open, Garrett retiring)
VA-7 (Brat)
VA-10 (Comstock)

I concur.

[OBD]

It looks like the exit polls were badly off.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

It looks like the exit polls were badly off.

Remember that some exit polls can be off while others could be right. Not all the exit polls were optimistic for Dems. Although Dems were way up (by 18 points) in the overall Generic Ballot exit poll, and also were up surprisingly in IN-02 and IN-05, they were down in the IN-SEN and KY-06 exit polls.

[Former President tack50]

A randomized TL is an incredibly cool idea. Keep it up!

[OBD]

Want...more...

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Want...more...

There will definitely be more, I was just too distracted by the Kavanaugh/Ford hearings to post any updates yesterday. I expect to update later today/tonight.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

7:00 PM EST: POLLS CLOSE IN FLORIDA, GEORGIA, SOUTH CAROLINA, VIRGINIA, AND VERMONT


The crowd views exit poll results at Barbara Comstock's Election Night Victory Party

November 6, 2018, 7:00 PM EST: ELECTION NIGHT, LEESBURG, VIRGINIA
BARBARA COMSTOCK FOR CONGRESS 'VICTORY' PARTY

Jared S. popped open another beer can and hit refresh on his browser, open to the Virginia House exit polls page. The mood among the volunteers was not upbeat, but at least was fairly stoic. Finally, the numbers updated --- "VA-10: My God, a 20 point blanching!"

To be honest, he wasn't entirely sure why he'd bothered to come to this victory party. Then he scrolled up and saw the VA-07 exit poll --- 49-49! Yeah, he definitely should have just gone there instead. Realistically, at this point NOVA was forever lost.

Well, at least Braun's Senate race in Indiana seemed at this point not to be going too badly now, after the early Donnelly lead. And at least there was plenty of alcohol. It was going to be a long night. But with lots of alcohol.

...

meanwhile...

...

November 6, 2018, 7:00 PM EST: ELECTION NIGHT, CNN Headquarters, Washington D.C.
CNN: THE SITUATION ROOM - CNN'S ELECTION DAY HEADQUARTERS

...

Wolf Blitzer: "It's 7 O' Clock and we have some more characterizations of KEY RACES!"



Wolf Blitzer: "Based on our exit polls, we can characterize the Senate race in Florida as TOO EARLY TO CALL, but with Democrat Bill Nelson with the apparent advantage."

Wolf Blitzer: "Based on our exit polls, we can characterize the Senate race in Virginia as TOO EARLY TO CALL, but with Democrat Tim Kaine with the apparent advantage."

Wolf Blitzer: "Based on our exit polls, we can project that Independent Democrat Bernie Sanders will WIN the Senate race in Vermont."


Wolf Blitzer: "Based on our exit polls, we can characterize the Gubernatorial race in Florida as TOO EARLY TO CALL, but with Democrat Andrew Gillum with the apparent advantage."

Wolf Blitzer: "Based on our exit polls, we can characterize the Gubernatorial race in Georgia as TOO CLOSE TO CALL."

Wolf Blitzer: "Based on our exit polls, we can characterize the Gubernatorial race in South Carolina as TOO CLOSE TO CALL."

Wolf Blitzer: "Based on our exit polls, we can characterize the Gubernatorial race in Vermont as TOO EARLY TO CALL, but with Republican Phil Scott with the apparent advantage."

Wolf Blitzer: "Over to you, John."

...

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Senate Results and Exit Polls:

Senate seats called: 0 D --- 0 R

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Gubernatorial Results and Exit Polls:

Governorships called: 0 D --- 0 R

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[/quote]



John King: "Well, we've got a slew of new exit polls from all these states! In the Senate and the Governors races, about what we would have expected, maybe a bit favorable for the Democrats. The Democrats with leads in the exit polls for the Florida Senate and Governors races, but too early to call before votes come in. The Georgia Gubernatorial race, close, but the Democrats with a slight lead in the exit poll. This one is going to be interesting. Stacey Abrams, an African American woman, pursued a new strategy for Georgia Democrats in her campaign, focusing almost entirely on turning out the Democratic base. A key factor to watch in Georgia is if the winning candidate can get more than 50% of the vote - otherwise it goes to a runoff. We'll see if Abrams' focus on turnout paid dividends, or whether Republican Brian Kemp can hold on for Georgia Republicans."

John King: "In the House, a lot of competitive races here, including some surprises. But one race that, privately, Republicans will tell you is not a surprise - Barbara Comstock, in Virginia's 10th district in Northern Virginia, down almost 20 points in the exit poll. She has been widely regarded as one of the most endangered Republican incumbents this year."

John King: "And -- what's that? --- oh, more votes in from Indiana. Mike Braun, the Republican has pulled into a narrow lead in the Senate race now. This is a Democratic held seat, and a key race. If Braun can hold his lead here, this would be a key, big pickup for the GOP. And in KY-06, the house race we have been closely monitoring, Amy McGrath still with a pretty solid lead, but Republican incumbent Andy Barr has picked up a few more votes, up to 68% reporting."

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I'd rather be Braun than Donnelly in IN-SEN looking at the Congressional Races from that State. 70+% is counted in IN-1 (that's a Democrat stronghold). Likewise IN-7 (Indianpolis Metro & Suburbs) is counted half (50 %).
Republicans holding IN-8, IN-9. All of the sudden doesn't look so bad for the GOP considering how bad the Early Exits were.

VA which closes soon is big on the House...3 competitive Seats VA-10 (Comstock), VA-5 and VA-2. Senate should be a cakewalk for Kaine.

One thing to keep in mind when analyzing the results is that there is no direct relation between the %s in in different types of races. For each race, Democratic, Republican, and Other votes are drawn randomly and independently from each other. So unfortunately you can't really infer whether the remaining votes in the IN-SEN race will be good for Dems or good for Reps based on which House districts have reported more or less.

It would have been really cool to do it so that you could infer that, but I thought that was more effort than it would really have been worth.

[2016]

I'd rather be Braun than Donnelly in IN-SEN looking at the Congressional Races from that State. 70+% is counted in IN-1 (that's a Democrat stronghold). Likewise IN-7 (Indianpolis Metro & Suburbs) is counted half (50 %).
Republicans holding IN-8, IN-9. All of the sudden doesn't look so bad for the GOP considering how bad the Early Exits were.

VA which closes soon is big on the House...3 competitive Seats VA-10 (Comstock), VA-5 and VA-2. Senate should be a cakewalk for Kaine.

One thing to keep in mind when analyzing the results is that there is no direct relation between the %s in in different types of races. For each race, Democratic, Republican, and Other votes are drawn randomly and independently from each other. So unfortunately you can't really infer whether the remaining votes in the IN-SEN race will be good for Dems or good for Reps based on which House districts have reported more or less.

It would have been really cool to do it so that you could infer that, but I thought that was more effort than it would really have been worth.

Thanks Still, a nice little lead there in IN-SEN - 24K Votes for Braun with almost 2/3 Vote in. We don't know though if Indianapolis Metro has been counted fully cuz then I'd breathe much easier.

If Braun can hang onto this Lead he is probably going to safe the Senate for Republicans.

SC-GOV TOO CLOSE TO CALL based on Exits ought to be a shocker for Republicans though.

And Brat being tied in VA-7 in the Exits is undoubtedly bad News for the GOP as well. Hopefully these Exits are off too somewhat.

Still, this is very exiting watching this all come in.

[Politician]

If IN-08 is still too close to call, the GOP is looking at at 60+ seat loss. That's a district that should never be vulnerable.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

If IN-08 is still too close to call, the GOP is looking at at 60+ seat loss. That's a district that should never be vulnerable.

Keep in mind, the system that is being used to call races is pretty conservative (and pretty simplistic). Basically, there are 2 steps:

1) Races that are REALLY big landslides can be called quite quickly. Basically, races that one candidate will ultimately win by more than 20 points (with some randomization as to the exact cutoff point) can be called quite quickly after the first votes come in.

2) Races that are any closer than that are only called very conservatively, if it is strictly mathematically impossible for the other candidate to win. A race is only called in this case if a candidate has a larger % lead than the % of the vote that remains to come in.


As for IN-08, it depends upon what remains to report. But so far, the house races in IN are a bit disappointing (but not really unexpected, I wouldn't say) for Dems.

[2016]

If IN-08 is still too close to call, the GOP is looking at at 60+ seat loss. That's a district that should never be vulnerable.

Not sure. IN-8 swings back and forth.

Hostettler (R) represented that District from 1995-2007
Ellsworth (D) 2007-2011
Bucshon (R) 2011-present

I think VA-7 and VA-10 are more problematic if Comstock & Brat lose when you look at the bigger picture.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Those SC exit polls... N U T

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

If IN-08 is still too close to call, the GOP is looking at at 60+ seat loss. That's a district that should never be vulnerable.

Not sure. IN-8 swings back and forth.

Hostettler (R) represented that District from 1995-2007
Ellsworth (D) 2007-2011
Bucshon (R) 2011-present

I think VA-7 and VA-10 are more problematic if Comstock & Brat lose when you look at the bigger picture.

Although VA-7 is traditionally Republican, it is rated tossup by Cook Political Report. The fact that the exit poll is tied may be bad for GOP hopes to outright hold the house, but I wouldn't be so sure it means a huge 60+ seat tsunami.

What I would be more concerned for Republicans about are the exit polls in seats like GA-06, GA-07, GA-12, SC-01, SC-02, and SC-05. Those all have Dems very close and/or ahead, and those seats are all rated at least lean R (and in the case of GA-12 and SC-02, are generally considered completely safe R, not even on the board).

On the other hand, remember IN-02 and IN-05 also had Dems up in the exit polls, but so far are looking pretty solid for the GOP. Exit polls can be wrong, and with how many exit polls we have for house races, some of them will DEFINITELY end up being wrong, and some by quite a bit.

[2016]

If IN-08 is still too close to call, the GOP is looking at at 60+ seat loss. That's a district that should never be vulnerable.

Not sure. IN-8 swings back and forth.

Hostettler (R) represented that District from 1995-2007
Ellsworth (D) 2007-2011
Bucshon (R) 2011-present

I think VA-7 and VA-10 are more problematic if Comstock & Brat lose when you look at the bigger picture.

Although VA-7 is traditionally Republican, it is rated tossup by Cook Political Report. The fact that the exit poll is tied may be bad for GOP hopes to outright hold the house, but I wouldn't be so sure it means a huge 60+ seat tsunami.

What I would be more concerned for Republicans about are the exit polls in seats like GA-06, GA-07, GA-12, SC-01, SC-02, and SC-05. Those all have Dems very close and/or ahead, and those seats are all rated at least lean R (and in the case of GA-12 and SC-02, are generally considered completely safe R, not even on the board).

On the other hand, remember IN-02 and IN-05 also had Dems up in the exit polls, but so far are looking pretty solid for the GOP. Exit polls can be wrong, and with how many exit polls we have for house races, some of them will DEFINITELY end up being wrong, and some by quite a bit.

As you often said we have to wait until Votes get counted as Blitzer & King would say

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

7:10 PM EST: IN-05 AND KY-06 TIGHTEN

November 6, 2018, 7:10 PM EST: ELECTION NIGHT, CNN Headquarters, Washington D.C.
CNN: THE SITUATION ROOM - CNN'S ELECTION DAY HEADQUARTERS

...

John King: "We are starting to get in the first trickle of results from all these races where polls just closed."

...

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Senate Results and Exit Polls:

Senate seats called: 1 D --- 0 R

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Gubernatorial Results and Exit Polls:

Governorships called: 0 D --- 0 R

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[/quote]


John King: "It is too early to tell very much, but in the Gubernatorial races, Republican Ron DeSantis up in Florida and Democrat Stacey Abrams up in Georgia so far. And here's a surprise - Democrat James Smith leading by 17 points in South Carolina so far, but only 4% in."

John King: "Nothing more in the Indiana Senate race yet, they are slow at counting in this critical race at the moment."

John King: "In the House, in IN-05, the Republican lead has been cut to under 3% with 73% reporting. This is a district in some ways not dissimilar from OH-12, where there was a very close special election a few months ago. It includes parts of the Indianapolis suburbs, Hamilton County, and also some rural counties. Remember, the Democrat Dee Smith was surprisingly leading the Republican incumbent Susan Brooks in the exit poll. Perhaps this could be a surprise, but it depends on which precincts still remain to report..."

John King: "And in KY-06, we are now up to 84% reporting and Amy McGrath's lead has shrunk a bit more, down to just a 4 point 52-48 lead."

Wolf Blitzer: "And we're going to go live to our reporter Chuck S, who is at the Andy Barr victory party in Lexington. How's the atmosphere there, Chuck?"

The crowd cheers at the Barr victory party as the CNN feed switches to them

Chuck S: "Well, Wolf, the atmosphere here is pretty tense, but hopeful. People are looking closely at the results as they come in, and you just heard the crowd cheer as we switched the feed here. Amy McGrath does have a significant lead, but the feeling is it is coming down. According to some officials with the Barr campaign that I was just talking to, they think they still have a good shot based on the precincts that are still out, but I cannot verify that. There are still votes out from a range of counties in the district, but according to the Barr campaign, the parts of Fayette County that are still out might not be as strong for McGrath as what has already reported. But again, I have not been able to verify that. And really, nobody is sure. Just very tense here, waiting for the last results to trickle in."

Wolf Blitzer: "Sounds like a stressful situation for the Andy Barr supporters there, Chuck. We'll have to see if McGrath can hold on to her slim lead, or maybe if Barr can still turn it around."

[2016]

To be honest I'm not that optimistic like the Barr Campaign Folks are in KY-6. 84% in and a 10K Vote-lead for the Democrat. That sounds very difficult to make up. Looks like that will be the first Democratic House Pick-Up of the Night.

That would take the Magic Number for Democrats down to 22 from 23.

IN-8 (Bucshon) and IN-9 (Hollingsworth) looking good now. IN-5 is somewhat of a surprise that it closed down but then John King mentioned that the make-up of that District looks similar to OH-12.

IN-SEN...still a lot of Vote outstanding. That being said the Young-Bayh Race in 2016 did not get called until after 8pm.

I'm not too concerned about SC-GOV, happens very often that Democrats take a lead early and then the rual Vote comes in and it's checkmate.

I'm interested now what happens in South Florida. Curbelo got re-elected by a fingernail in 2016 (FL-26). FL-25 and FL-27 are also competitive.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

7:20 PM EST: BRAUN'S LEAD CUT TO 688 VOTES IN THE INDIANA; POLLS SOON CLOSE IN NORTH CAROLINA, OHIO, AND WEST VIRGINIA

November 6, 2018, 7:20 PM EST: ELECTION NIGHT, CNN Headquarters, Washington D.C.
CNN: THE SITUATION ROOM - CNN'S ELECTION DAY HEADQUARTERS

...

John King: "Ok, we have to take another look at Indiana. We just got in some votes from Lake County, heavily Democratic Gary Indiana, and Mike Braun's lead has been cut to just 688 votes. Look at this, Wolf."

John King: 1,242,591 votes counted so far, and the margin is just 688 votes. Unbelievably close."

Wolf Blitzer: "Well, here we can see that every" ...

...

John King: "Wait, a few more precincts reported, now Donnelly is up by 136 votes."

...

Wolf Blitzer: "... Well, every vote counts. As a reminder to our viewers, if you want to vote but haven't voted yet, there is still time to go vote now in most states and make your vote count."

...

John King: "And look, now Braun is up again by 478 votes."

Wolf Blitzer: "What a nail biter we have in Indiana right now. This race looks like it could go either way."

John King: "Meanwhile if we flip over to Virginia, so far Democrat Tim Kaine crushing Republican challenger Corey Stewart by 20 points, no real surprise there."

...

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Senate Results and Exit Polls:

Senate seats called: 1 D --- 0 R

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Gubernatorial Results and Exit Polls:

Governorships called: 0 D --- 0 R

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[/quote]

...

John King: "Very little from any of the Governor's races still, but Republicans now leading in Georgia, South Carolina, and Vermont. Democrat Andrew Gillum up by a wide margin in Florida. Let's go back to the House."

John King: "Some more votes in from KY-06, that key early House race that we are monitoring, and McGrath's lead is down to 1.8% now. I guess some Republican precincts came in. Only 12% left to report - Barr can still come back, but it will be tough, it depends what precincts are left. Look at this, Fayette County 91% reporting, also some votes left in rural counties where Barr is doing well. 83% in from Montgomery County, one of those rural counties where Barr is ahead."

John King: "In IN-05, a big Republican lead now all of a sudden. Hard to see how the Democrats can win that now, but we haven't called it yet. Not much in yet from the other states, but some close races there so far. Look at Georgia, for example. GA-01, a 1 point race. That's a surprise, but not much in, and these votes may not be representative. GA-06 and, a 5 point Democratic advantage, that's where there was the special election last year. GA-07, Republicans up by less than 1%."

John King: "In VA-10, Republican Barbara Comstock is down, but only by 12, not as much as the exit polls were showing. Comstock considered one of the most endangered Republicans in the House."

[libertpaulian]

Sweet!  Keep going!

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

To be honest I'm not that optimistic like the Barr Campaign Folks are in KY-6. 84% in and a 10K Vote-lead for the Democrat. That sounds very difficult to make up. Looks like that will be the first Democratic House Pick-Up of the Night.

That would take the Magic Number for Democrats down to 22 from 23.

IN-8 (Bucshon) and IN-9 (Hollingsworth) looking good now. IN-5 is somewhat of a surprise that it closed down but then John King mentioned that the make-up of that District looks similar to OH-12.

IN-SEN...still a lot of Vote outstanding. That being said the Young-Bayh Race in 2016 did not get called until after 8pm.

I'm not too concerned about SC-GOV, happens very often that Democrats take a lead early and then the rual Vote comes in and it's checkmate.

I'm interested now what happens in South Florida. Curbelo got re-elected by a fingernail in 2016 (FL-26). FL-25 and FL-27 are also competitive.

Well, Barr seems to be closing a bit more.

I am interested in South Florida as well in particular.

[libertpaulian]

Lake County (my home base) is usually the last to report, so assuming the margins are this tight down to the end, that's good news for Donnelly.

[OBD]

COME ON DONNELLY

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Lake County (my home base) is usually the last to report, so assuming the margins are this tight down to the end, that's good news for Donnelly.

I don't have the level of detail to actually incorporate those sorts of things. It is just entirely random as to what votes come in first. So for example in Virginia, don't expect NoVa to report last like it always does in reality.

[2016]

To be honest I'm not that optimistic like the Barr Campaign Folks are in KY-6. 84% in and a 10K Vote-lead for the Democrat. That sounds very difficult to make up. Looks like that will be the first Democratic House Pick-Up of the Night.

That would take the Magic Number for Democrats down to 22 from 23.

IN-8 (Bucshon) and IN-9 (Hollingsworth) looking good now. IN-5 is somewhat of a surprise that it closed down but then John King mentioned that the make-up of that District looks similar to OH-12.

IN-SEN...still a lot of Vote outstanding. That being said the Young-Bayh Race in 2016 did not get called until after 8pm.

I'm not too concerned about SC-GOV, happens very often that Democrats take a lead early and then the rual Vote comes in and it's checkmate.

I'm interested now what happens in South Florida. Curbelo got re-elected by a fingernail in 2016 (FL-26). FL-25 and FL-27 are also competitive.

Well, Barr seems to be closing a bit more.

I am interested in South Florida as well in particular.

Me too. Thanks for doing this. Really fun to watch. Democrats haven't won a House Race yet and we're getting close to 7.30 ET. I suspect though that this will change over the next Hour or so.

What a crazy Night already