From 2018 To Beyond: Starting with Detailed 2018 Election Night Coverage

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

What's the simulator?
And will you manually stop crazy things like Angus King or Tim Kaine losing?

It's my own model that I made for fun. The variances aren't high enough for something as crazy as King or Kaine losing to have anything more than an infinitesimally small chance.

I think what I want to do, though, is set it up so that I myself won't know the final results at least for the Senate/Gov races until you do.

I've done a good number of practice runs and am checking it over, and I don't think anything crazy on that level will happen, but if it does I will either invent a scandal after the fact to justify it, or else if it seems just too crazy, then maybe we will change it manually. But we should be able to cross that bridge when (if) we get there.

[NewYorkExpress]

Personally, if we need an out of left field result, I'm fine with sacrificing Menendez.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

OK, here goes nothing. I am running the simulation one time now, and I am going to use whatever result I get on this run. I have set it up so that I won't see the results until I am ready to copy/paste into a post. So that means that I will not know in advance the Senate and Governor results any more than readers do, although I will already know of the House results.

There will be updates every 10 minutes through election night (of timeline time, not of real time), and I am thinking of doing 2 updates per day. At that pace, we should get through election night by roughly mid-late October, depending on how long it takes for the last few closest races to come in and to be called.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

And the simulation is done. So soon we will start to get results, when I write up a post.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

6:00 PM EST: POLLS CLOSED IN INDIANA AND KENTUCKY



November 6, 2018, 5:59 PM EST: ELECTION DAY, CNN Headquarters, Washington D.C.
CNN: THE SITUATION ROOM - CNN'S ELECTION DAY HEADQUARTERS

(Methodological note - to make things easier for simulating results coming in, my model assumes that polls in each state all close at the same time. That is not true in reality in Kentucky and Indiana, so this is slightly unrealistic, but makes things much easier).

Wolf Blitzer: "Just one minute from now, polls will close in Kentucky and Indiana and our election results coverage will begin! We will have exit polls for the Indiana Senate race, a hotly contested race between incumbent Democratic Senator Joe Donnelly, and Republican challenger Mike Braun. And we will have preliminary exit polls for the House national popular vote. In addition, for the first time ever, CNN has conducted EXCLUSIVE exit polls of all 435 individual House races across the entire United States. In particular, we will be looking at the Indiana Senate race and the 6th Congresssional District of Kentucky, the two most competitive races in Indiana and Kentucky, for early results and clues about how the night is going for Democrats and Republicans."

...

(Methodological note -

Although in real life there are no exit polls for individual House races, I decided to include them just for fun since I can generate them just as easily as for other races, and this is essentially no additional effort.

All exit polls are randomly generated based on the actual final results in each race. Senate, and Governor, and the House National Popular vote exit poll all include both a systematic random error (shared by all of those) and an individual random error for each exit poll. Because of the systematic error, it is possible for exit polls to be systematically wrong (on average), across the board.

The exit polls for individual house races, on the other hand, have a separate systematic error for each state. So, for example, the House exit polls in Kentucky will have a different systematic error from the House exit polls in Indiana, and both of these systematic errors will be different from the national systematic error that .  I made individual House races in each state use a different systematic error so that it wouldn't be too easy to figure out what (if any) systematic national error there is in the exit polls, at least until a significant number of votes have actually come in. This means that you shouldn't necessarily read too much from one type of exit poll into another. It is possible that different types of exit polls can be off in different directions.

There is, however, generally some relation between the actual House vote in each state and the actual Senate/Gov vote in those states, though this relationship is not necessarily strong and there are certain states/races where Senate/Gov candidates are more likely to overperform/underperform the House vote.)

...

Wolf Blitzer: "And it is 6 Eastern Time! Polls have just closed in Kentucky and Indiana, and we can now make some characterizations and release exit poll results from those states."



Wolf Blitzer: "Based on our exit polls, we can make a characterization of control of the House of Representatives. Control of the House of Representatives is TOO EARLY TO CALL."

Wolf Blitzer: "Based on our exit polls, we can make a characterization of the Senate race in Indiana. The Senate race in Indiana is TOO CLOSE TO CALL."

Wolf Blitzer: "Based on our exit polls, we can make a characterization of the House race in Kentucky's 6th District. Kentucky's 6th Congressional District is TOO CLOSE TO CALL."

Wolf Blitzer: "And now we'll go to John King and our panel. Our exit polls are now also posted on CNN.com, so go log in and take a look for yourself!"

...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

House Exit Polls:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Senate Exit Polls:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[/quote]

...

John King: "Wolf, well those are some interesting early characterizations. Panelists, what do you make of this?"

Democratic Talking Head: "My gosh, I am looking here at the early House exit poll, and it has Democrats up 58-40 in the House National Popular Vote! If that's accurate, this could be a landslide in the House like we haven't seen since at least 1974. And on the Presidential level we haven't seen landslides like this in decades - not since Reagan in 1984 or LBJ in 1964."

John King: "Keep in mind that is just an early exit poll. Millions of people are still voting, and this is based on ballots cast so far. It is still early especially in the West, and we are estimating the vote especially in the West coast, partially based on what we know from an exit poll of early voters there."

Republican Talking Head: "But look at the Indiana Senate race. Sure, it is too close to call, but Braun is up in the exit poll 52-47. And in KY-06, Andy Barr is up in the exit poll 53-47. This is a race that Democrats really wanted to pick up, they thought they had a great candidate, Amy McGrath with her viral video flying a fighter jet. But if that exit poll is right, she will fall short. And as far as the House Popular Vote goes, even if that early exit poll were accurate, elections are held district by district."

John King: "The question is how does the popular vote translate into seats, when Republicans have drawn strong Congressional maps and Democrats are 'naturally' packed into urban areas."

Democratic Talking Head: "It had better translate into seats, and I think it will. We have a lot of great candidates, starting with Amy McGrath in Kentucky. Don't count her out before the votes even come in."

Wolf Blitzer: "That's right. And we are getting word that some results should start to come in at around 6:10."

Democratic Talking Head: "But look at those House exit polls in Indiana. Democrats are up in IN-02 and IN-05. Neither of those are races Democrats were really expecting to be competitive, other than in our wildest dreams. And those good exit polls there are consistent with the great National Popular Vote exit poll. This could be a fantastic election night for Democrats."

"Independent" Talking Head: "You all make some good points. It's too early to tell. We just need to wait for some votes to come in to see what is really happening."

John King: "Yeah, we'll just have to wait for some votes to come in and see how they line up with the exit polls. And we should start getting results in pretty soon!"

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Jesus god that margin. If that holds up, the Republican party is beyond ed.

[Cold War Liberal]

Jesus god that margin. If that holds up, the Republican party is beyond ed.

[OBD]

I'm sorry but these exit polls don't make a ton of sense (Indiana Senate and KY-06 vs everything else). Looking forward to the actual results, though!

[KaiserDave]

Odd exit polls, but very excited to see how this goes.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I got a PM asking for some more details about how I am calculating the election results/exit polls. So I will post my response here, to provide more background/information for any interested readers.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

6:10 PM EST: THE FIRST VOTES COME IN



November 6, 2018, 6:10 PM EST: ELECTION NIGHT, CNN Headquarters, Washington D.C.
CNN: THE SITUATION ROOM - CNN'S ELECTION DAY HEADQUARTERS

John King: "And it looks like our first results have just come in."

Wolf Blitzer: "We had better send you over to the magic wall, John. We have some results from KEY HOUSE RACES in Indiana and Kentucky."

...

(Methodological note - Races that have been called are designated with a star (R* and D* means called for R or called for D, respectively. Races are called automatically, and should never be called incorrectly. Races can only be called after at least some votes have come in, and are only called in a very conservative manner when it is sure of who will win).

You must be logged in to read this quote.

House Results:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Senate Results:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[/quote]

(Methodological note - There is no relationship between # In in different races in the same state. So for example, above there is still 0% reporting, whereas there are votes reported in IN House races. Although that is not perfectly realistic, it was easier to do this by making the results come in entirely randomly. Every 10 minutes a random amount of results are reported from each races, and there is also a chance that no results will be reported for that 10 minutes. In the case above, IN-SEN was randomly selected to not have any results reported. But there will (probably) be results in the next 10 minutes. Of course, we will have to wait and see!)

John King: "In KY-06, we have only 3% in so far, and Andy Barr, the Republican incumbent, has pulled ahead to a bit under a 10 point lead. However, it is still very early, and these first few precincts don't include anything from Lexington, where the Democrat Amy McGrath expects to do very well."

John King: "Nothing yet from IN-SEN, but so far the Republicans are ahead in IN-02 and IN-05, where the exit polls surprisingly had the Democrats ahead. Still a lot of votes to count in those races, and none of these votes so far in IN-02 and IN-05 are from South Bend or Indianapolis, the main Democratic strongholds in those two districts. Maybe if the Democrats can get good margins there, they could win these districts. And although President Trump won Hamilton County in IN-05 by 20 points, it is full of suburban, college educated voters who swung to Clinton in 2016. There are some similarities here to the 12th district of Ohio, where Democrats came very close to winning in a special election a few months ago."

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I'm sorry but these exit polls don't make a ton of sense (Indiana Senate and KY-06 vs everything else). Looking forward to the actual results, though!

Odd exit polls, but very excited to see how this goes.

Yeah, clearly some of the exit polls have to be off. The question is just which ones, and in what way they are off.

Possibly I may have made the random variation in exit polls a bit too large, but I think we may just have gotten a bit unlucky. Since there is both a systematic error and an ideosyncratic error, you can get comparatively large overall errors if both of those types of error happen to be biased in the same direction.

As we get more results in, it should eventually become clearer what sort of systematic error is in the exit polls, and then you can interpret the remaining exit polls in light of that, as they come in.

[2016]

This is fun & exiting. Keep this up!

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Note, I edited the 6:10 results to include a map of house races that have been called so far. From now on I will include an updated version of this map for each 10 minute update.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

6:20 PM EST: FIRST RESULTS FROM THE INDIANA SENATE RACE



November 6, 2018, 6:20 PM EST: ELECTION NIGHT, CNN Headquarters, Washington D.C.
CNN: THE SITUATION ROOM - CNN'S ELECTION DAY HEADQUARTERS

John King: "We are now starting to get some results in from the Indiana Senate race. This is one of the major hotly contested races that will determine who controls the United States Senate. Democrats currently hold it, and are looking to keep it. Republicans want to take it, and Indiana is a conservative state and Joe Donnelly, the Democrat, has been regarded as vulnerable."

Wolf Blitzer: "Republicans currently have a 51-49 majority in the United States Senate. It is balanced on a knife edge. To gain control of the Senate, Democrats would have to pick up at least 2 seats. But Republicans are trying to expand their majority, and the first place they are looking to do that is Indiana."

John King: "So far, Joe Donnelly has pulled into the lead, about an 8 point lead with 11% in. But we still have a lot of votes to count, so we'll see if he can maintain that lead."

John King: "And in the House, it looks like we just got a big dump of votes from Lexington in KY-06. McGrath, the Democrat, now has a big lead of more than 30 points. But Andy Barr, the Republican, is expected to do better in rural parts of the district. And so far, Republicans with big leads in IN-02 and IN-05, where the exit polls had Democrats slightly ahead."
...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Senate Results:

Senate seats called: 0 D --- 0 R

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[/quote]

Wolf Blitzer: "Exciting stuff, exciting stuff."

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

LIVE LOOK AT THE US ELECTION ATLAS FORUM ELECTION NIGHT RESULTS MEGATHREAD

November 6, 2018, 6:20 PM EST: ELECTION NIGHT, on the internet



(Note - I am taking the liberty of making up some quotes for artistic purposes - the below users did not necessarily say these things )

Jesus god that margin. If that holds up, the Republican party is beyond ed.

Jesus god that margin. If that holds up, the Republican party is beyond ed.

In Indiana, I think the vote in so far is mostly from Dem areas. Braun could come back and the Senate exit poll can still be right.

In Indiana, I think the vote in so far is mostly from Dem areas. Braun could come back and the Senate exit poll can still be right.

No way, look at the House popular vote so far. Republicans are only winning the House popular vote by 2% in Indiana and Kentucky! Looks like the House national popular vote exit poll may not be that far off.

Odd exit polls, but very excited to see how this goes. I don't see how Barr makes up that margin in KY-06.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Great TL!

1. What happened to Kavanaugh nomination? If it failed did someone else get confirmed?
2. What did the final polls pre election forecasts generally suggest?

Anyway not looking good at all for Republicans so far

[Cold War Liberal]

Holy effing hell that KY-06 margin

Looking forward to the result!!!

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

6:30 PM EST: FIRST SIGNS OF A WAVE? OR EVEN A TSUNAMI?



November 6, 2018, 6:30 PM EST: ELECTION NIGHT, CNN Headquarters, Washington D.C.
CNN: THE SITUATION ROOM - CNN'S ELECTION DAY HEADQUARTERS

Wolf Blitzer: "Let's go to Anderson Cooper, who is with our panel now for some reaction to these early results."

...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Senate Results:

Senate seats called: 0 D --- 0 R

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[/quote]

Anderson Cooper: "How are these results so far looking to you?"

Democratic Strategist: "So far, this is just about the best that Democrats could have hoped for. Remember that this is Indiana and Kentucky we are talking about here. Kentucky voted for President Trump by 30 points, and Indiana voted for President Trump by 19 points. And right now, Republicans are only winning the House popular vote in those two states by 4.4%!!! Joe Donnelly is ahead in Indiana by 14 points. Amy McGrath leads in KY-06 by 20 points. Right now, this doesn't look like a wave. It looks like a tsunami. If you are a Republican, it is time to start running for high ground."

Republican Strategist: "Hold your horses there, just a minute. We need to be looking at where the vote that is in so far is coming from. Now look at Kentucky. Most of the vote in KY-06 so far is from Fayette County  - Lexington, where even Hillary Clinton managed to win. And in the Indiana senate race, those votes that just came in and brought Donnelly up above 56%, a lot of that was from Monroe County - Bloomington, home to the University of Indiana. Monroe County is already at 67% reporting. So look, I don't know if it will narrow enough, but there is no way Joe Donnelly is going to win this race by 14 points. And Andy Barr is not going to lose by 20 points. These races are going to get closer than this. Republicans on the West Coast out there, you still need to go vote. This isn't over yet."

John King: "OK, I've got to cut in here. According to some our reporters we have on the ground, it looks like we are about to get a big vote dump. Let's go over to..."

... (to be continued) ...

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Great TL!

1. What happened to Kavanaugh nomination? If it failed did someone else get confirmed?
2. What did the final polls pre election forecasts generally suggest?

Anyway not looking good at all for Republicans so far

1) I haven't decided yet what happened to Kavanaugh. One of the reasons I decided to start writing on election day was so that hopefully by the time we are done going through election day, we will either know whether in reality Kavanaugh was confirmed or not, and if he was not, what is likely to happen with another nominee. So after we get done going through election night, we will go back in time and fill in any details that need to be filled in about what happened regarding the Kavanaugh nomination, and anything else that we need to deal with.

2) Again, I don't want to make a commitment yet as to what exactly the pre-election polls looked like, exactly, because hopefully this is something that we can go back and fill in in a few weeks with more realistic details. Generally, though, I would say that prior to election day the polls were broadly similar to what they are currently in real life. They could have been a bit better for Democrats, or else a bit better for Republicans. But broadly they should be in line with current general expectations/conventional wisdom.

I saw your PM by the way, will get back to you.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fun so far.  I look forward to the rest of it.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

6:40 PM EST: KY-06 TIGHTENS

November 6, 2018, 6:40 PM EST: ELECTION NIGHT, CNN Headquarters, Washington D.C.
CNN: THE SITUATION ROOM - CNN'S ELECTION DAY HEADQUARTERS

John King: "OK, I've got to cut in here. According to some our reporters we have on the ground, it looks like we are about to get a big vote dump. Let's go over to..."

...

John King: "Madison County, Kentucky. Let's go to Julie S. who has been talking to the County Clerk and has some news."

Julie S: "That's right John, we've been told to expect returns to start coming in from Madison County shortly, they have just submitted their first dump of votes. Madison County is one of the most Republican counties in this district, and it is one of the larger ones, so this is expected to eat into Amy McGrath's lead so far."

John King: "Alright, thank you Julie. The question is, how much, and will it and returns from other more Republican counties be enough, or does McGrath already have it in the bag."

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Senate Results:

Senate seats called: 0 D --- 0 R

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[/quote]

John King: "And here we have it. Amy McGrath's lead has been cut in half to 10 points. Still a very impressive lead with 49% reporting. Meanwhile in IN-02 and IN-5, those surprises with the Democrats up slightly in the exit polls, the Republican incumbents still have wide leads. So far, those exit polls not bearing out, but a lot of votes still to count. And for the Senate race, we're still waiting on more returns. Over to Anderson and our panel again."

Republican Strategist: "You see, I told you it would get closer!"

Democratic Strategist: "McGrath is still up by 10 in a district Trump won by 15 points. This is still a huge swing and a great night to be a Democrat."

Wolf Blitzer: "And let's go live to our reporter at Amy McGrath's victory party. This race has not been called, and they're still counting votes, but Amy McGrath has come out already to greet the crowd."

...



...

Amy McGrath: "I got tired of just sitting around in the back room while they count votes, and I wanted to come out already and go ahead and thank you all so much for being here, and for all your hard work throughout the campaign!"

Crowd cheers!

Amy McGrath: "Alright, going to head back to check with Mike, but I'll be right back here soon enough. Let's win this thing and change Washington!"

Crowd cheers!

...

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

6:50 PM EST: INDIANA SENATE RACE TIGHTENS, POLLS CLOSE IN MORE STATES IN 10 MINUTES


Joe Donnelly and Mike Braun, candidates in the Indiana Senate Race

November 6, 2018, 6:50 PM EST: ELECTION NIGHT, CNN Headquarters, Washington D.C.
CNN: THE SITUATION ROOM - CNN'S ELECTION DAY HEADQUARTERS

...

John King: "We're starting to get more votes in from Indiana, a lot from heavily Republican rural counties across the state starting to report in."

...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Senate Results:

Senate seats called: 0 D --- 0 R

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[/quote]

John King: "Mike Braun, the Republican, doing very well there across much of rural Indiana, and this race is all of a sudden super-tight. Joe Donnelly leading now only 49.7%-49.3%, less than 1%. Look at Decatur County here, for example. Just a small county, but in 2012, Joe Donnelly kept it within 20 points here. Now - and this county is only 62% in so far, so it could get closer - Donnelly is losing here by 40 points. On the other hand, Donnelly running strong in Democratic strongholds, and in the Indianapolis suburbs. 67% in Marion County (Indianapolis) so far, that's even a bit better than he did in 2012, but that's only 52% in, so that could change also."

Wolf Blitzer: "We've got a real horse race on our hands in Indiana. Let's go back to our panel."

Republican Strategist: "Suddenly, this election night is looking very different than it did even just 20 minutes ago. We've seen tightening first in KY-06, and now in IN-SEN. And I just want to point to the House popular vote as well - we've made up a lot of ground since the first returns came in, and are now leading by more than double digits."

Democratic Strategist: "Yeah, but Donnelly and McGrath are both still ahead! And like I mentioned before, these are states that Trump won in landslides in 2016. If we are keeping it this much closer in Indiana and Kentucky, it is going to be better in other states."

Republican Strategist: "But most of the districts Democrats need to win for big gains in the House, and most of the Senate seats up for grabs, they all voted for Trump too!"

Democratic Strategist: "Well, you know what else, we are about to start getting results in from a much broader swathe of the country. And then we will see what America really thinks of Trump."

Wolf Blitzer: "That's right, polls will be closing in just a few minutes in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia, and Vermont. And we've got some big races coming. The Senate and Governors races in Florida, along with about half a dozen house races to watch, the Georgia Governor's race and one or two house races, the Governor's race in South Carolina, and several House Races in Virginia, including the closely watched Virginia 10th district, at least it is closely watched here in Washington D.C."

[2016]

I'd rather be Braun than Donnelly in IN-SEN looking at the Congressional Races from that State. 70+% is counted in IN-1 (that's a Democrat stronghold). Likewise IN-7 (Indianpolis Metro & Suburbs) is counted half (50 %).
Republicans holding IN-8, IN-9. All of the sudden doesn't look so bad for the GOP considering how bad the Early Exits were.

VA which closes soon is big on the House...3 competitive Seats VA-10 (Comstock), VA-5 and VA-2. Senate should be a cakewalk for Kaine.

[erſatz-york]

I'd rather be Braun than Donnelly in IN-SEN looking at the Congressional Races from that State. 70+% is counted in IN-1 (that's a Democrat stronghold). Likewise IN-7 (Indianpolis Metro & Suburbs) is counted half (50 %).
Republicans holding IN-8, IN-9. All of the sudden doesn't look so bad for the GOP considering how bad the Early Exits were.

VA which closes soon is big on the House...3 competitive Seats VA-10 (Comstock), VA-5 and VA-2. Senate should be a cakewalk for Kaine.

VA-07 instead of (or in addition to) VA-05, right?