TX Reuters/Ipsos: O'Rourke +2

[The Mikado]

Like I was saying yesterday in the thread about the, Cruz is likely up by 4-6. Cruz by 9 is way, way off of where this race feels and likely due to an overly tight voting screen looking at the 2014 electorate.

O'Rourke is certainly not up, but a vlose race could show something like this poll occasionally.

Well O'Rouke isn't Wendy Davis in one sense: Davis never led in a single poll. That this is a likely voter poll is more good news for O'Rourke.

If you think Cruz is going to win by 20 like Abbott did in 2014, you need to recalibrate. Abbott might win by 12 or so this year and he's far stronger than Cruz while Valdez is way weaker than O'Rourke.

[BaldEagle1991]

Ethics have a lagging effect and the Kavanaugh ethics has caused even Cruz to be in a competitive race

This could be why we might see more polls or O’Rourke leading soon.

Also this is probably why Ted Cruz has been mostly silent on Kavanaugh.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Is this the same Retuers/Ipsos online poll methodology as used for the tracking poll that bounces around all over the place? If so, we probably should not put too much weight on this, especially as compared to the Quinnipiac poll. Does anyone know, because I don't see anything about methodology at the link?

However, this is obviously a good poll for Beto, not least because he is at 47 - above 45, which is pretty much the best that any TX Democrat has done in a major statewide race for decades.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Being honest I think this balances out the Quinnipiac poll from yesterday. Nice to see, and definately an "I WANT TO BELIEVE" poll, but this is most likely an outlier, like the one from yesterday. Still gonna put this on the edge of Lean and Tilt R.

[Xing]

#TXBluerThanNV
#Realignment
#CruzMoreVulnerableThanHeller
#TrumpWillFlipNVButLoseTXin2020

Throw it in the trash.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Being honest I think this balances out the Quinnipiac poll from yesterday. Nice to see, and definately an "I WANT TO BELIEVE" poll, but this is most likely an outlier, like the one from yesterday. Still gonna put this on the edge of Lean and Tilt R.

[Tender Branson]

I've added the polls to the database, TX is now a tossup (Cruz+3).

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

#TXBluerThanNV
#Realignment
#CruzMoreVulnerableThanHeller
#TrumpWillFlipNVButLoseTXin2020

Throw it in the trash.

[Blackacre]

With Cruz at +4/5 you'll get a poll showing Cruz +9 and a poll showing Beto +2, nothing unusual...

Taken in conjunction with QPac suggests a 4-5 Cruz lead, which fits the general vibe of the race

This is the correct take.

Also I should point out that any poll of Nevada is trash and should be tossed, especially one that doesnt poll in Spanish. So don't consider that when looking at this Texas poll. Beto is still the underdog but it's crystal clear he has a legit shot, and most importantly, he FINALLY led a poll. That's not too surprising for a Cruz+4 kind of race but it's still nice to see

[Antonio the Sixth]

#TXBluerThanNV
#Realignment
#CruzMoreVulnerableThanHeller
#TrumpWillFlipNVButLoseTXin2020

Throw it in the trash.

Yeah, seriously. These polls are just bad.

[IceSpear]

Next up on Reuters: Asa Hutchinson loses while Bruce Rauner wins.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These are online polls but Cruz is in trouble. I doubt Rauner win, Rahn Emmanuel, who is his Democratic buddy just resigned. IL is in a jobless recovery.😶

[IceSpear]

With Cruz at +4/5 you'll get a poll showing Cruz +9 and a poll showing Beto +2, nothing unusual...

Taken in conjunction with QPac suggests a 4-5 Cruz lead, which fits the general vibe of the race

This is the correct take.

Averaging this and Quinnipiac is like dumping a trash bag on top of your steak and thinking that gives better food than the steak alone. The correct take is to eat the steak and throw the trash bag into the dumpster.

[Virginiá]

With Cruz at +4/5 you'll get a poll showing Cruz +9 and a poll showing Beto +2, nothing unusual...

Taken in conjunction with QPac suggests a 4-5 Cruz lead, which fits the general vibe of the race

This is the correct take.

Averaging this and Quinnipiac is like dumping a trash bag on top of your steak and thinking that gives better food than the steak alone. The correct take is to eat the steak and throw the trash bag into the dumpster.

Uhmm, excuse me, but trash steak gives some of us hope!

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

With Cruz at +4/5 you'll get a poll showing Cruz +9 and a poll showing Beto +2, nothing unusual...

Taken in conjunction with QPac suggests a 4-5 Cruz lead, which fits the general vibe of the race

This is the correct take.

Averaging this and Quinnipiac is like dumping a trash bag on top of your steak and thinking that gives better food than the steak alone. The correct take is to eat the steak and throw the trash bag into the dumpster.

Uhmm, excuse me, but trash steak gives some of us hope!

yeah, like that one moldy piece of cheese looks like BLUE CHEESE HA HA FUNNY JOKE

[TarHeelDem]

Loving #TossUpTexas. Always looked forward to the day this beautiful reality would come. Gonna be a helluva race, folks.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Combined with ethics of Trump and Cruz, Beto stands a chance

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Loving #TossUpTexas. Always looked forward to the day this beautiful reality would come. Gonna be a helluva race, folks.

I'm afraid you're going to have to wait another decade or two for #TossUpTexas.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Loving #TossUpTexas. Always looked forward to the day this beautiful reality would come. Gonna be a helluva race, folks.

I'm afraid you're going to have to wait another decade or two for #TossUpTexas.

Beto has been pounding Cruz a lot harder this week than recent weeks, he is taking on the tougher guy, that he lacked before.

[BaldEagle1991]

This poll also comes to show that whoever has the most money, usually wins.

Linda McMahon and George Allen say hi.

Linda McMahon has extra cash from the WWE family empire so that’s an asterisk. As for George Allen that was a miracle pull off.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I doubt it. This is still lean R.

[Use Your Illusion]

WTF I thought he was down by 9? Damn the polls and burn em all down

[junior chįmp]

BBQ gaffe taking its toll on Lyin Ted

[Skye]

Yeah, clearly he’s going to do five points better than Jacky Rosen. Sure.

[BaldEagle1991]

BBQ gaffe taking its toll on Lyin Ted

He just made that statement, we will likely see by next week with new polls to see if that made any difference.