MD-Goucher: Hogan +22
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Author Topic: MD-Goucher: Hogan +22  (Read 3711 times)
Terry the Fat Shark
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« on: September 18, 2018, 11:18:11 PM »
« edited: September 18, 2018, 11:21:23 PM by Vice President dfwlibertylover »

Larry Hogan (R) - 54%
Ben Jealous (D) - 32%
Ian Schlakman (G) - 1%
Shawn Quinn (L) - 1%
Undecided - 9%

https://www.goucher.edu/hughes-center/documents/Goucher_Poll_Sept_2018_Part_2.pdf
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Zaybay
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« Reply #1 on: September 18, 2018, 11:25:45 PM »

Likely R, but with the possibility to go lean R/tossup. Surprised to see Hogan winning 35% African American voters, and 40% Democrats, though.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2018, 11:37:35 PM »

Safe R.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #3 on: September 18, 2018, 11:49:20 PM »

Hogan is not winning by 22 points.
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junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
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« Reply #4 on: September 19, 2018, 12:14:21 AM »

Hogan getting 35% of the black vote!

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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #5 on: September 19, 2018, 12:21:11 AM »

This is just trending farther and farther from us, stupid race and candidate. We should give up on this one (spoiler alert: Hogan wins again) and spend our cash elsewhere.
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Xing
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« Reply #6 on: September 19, 2018, 12:21:31 AM »

I doubt it will be this lopsided, but yeah, Hogan's not losing.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #7 on: September 19, 2018, 01:46:33 AM »
« Edited: September 19, 2018, 02:52:04 AM by smoltchanov »

Likely R, but with the possibility to go lean R/tossup. Surprised to see Hogan winning 35% African American voters, and 40% Democrats, though.

Maryland is, of course, Democratic state, but not all it's Democrats are very liberal. When Republicans offer non-extremist alternative to rather extreme Democratic candidate - you must expect a lot of defections. Of course - less, then in 1972 Mississippi (about 90% Democratic in many elections, and 87% for Nixon), but - still...
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: September 19, 2018, 01:50:02 AM »

Hogan is moderate enough on guns, Jealous is too liberal on taxes. If Van Hollen was running with Jealous this would be a close race. I wish Mfume was in the seat instead of Cardin😁
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #9 on: September 19, 2018, 03:16:05 AM »

The best group for Jealous is young people (18-34)
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #10 on: September 19, 2018, 03:37:40 AM »

It wonít be that bad, but wow, thatís beyond pathetic for a Democrat running in MD. This is a state that is usually ready to vote for any (D) over any (R) at any time.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #11 on: September 19, 2018, 04:09:55 AM »

Dems are doing well in FL, and Hogan is a moderate, anyways just like Ehrlich who won, too.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #12 on: September 19, 2018, 05:13:16 AM »

Dems are doing well in FL, and Hogan is a moderate, anyways just like Ehrlich who won, too.

Ehrlich lost reelection bid, Hogan will, probably, win it.
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Yellowhammer
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« Reply #13 on: September 19, 2018, 06:24:47 AM »

Hereís how Jealous can still win:
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Rookie Yinzer
RFKFan68
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« Reply #14 on: September 19, 2018, 07:24:39 AM »

The Democrats already control everything. There is no Republican establishment for MD Democrats to rage against. Which means no state legislative grassroots wave like VA to push momentum up the ticket. Jealous is also too liberal for the type of Democrat that lives in MD. They'd rather have a Republican they can overrule than a Democrat that is to the left of the state party that they can't "keep in line".

Likely/Safe R.
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Politician
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« Reply #15 on: September 19, 2018, 08:14:11 AM »

But muh Tossup because Maryland

Obviously, this is Likely/Safe R, and nowhere near as likely to flip as Oklahoma. Hogan could win by double digits.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #16 on: September 19, 2018, 08:36:34 AM »

But muh Solid said it's a Tossup because Maryland

Obviously, this is Likely/Safe R, and nowhere near as likely to flip as Oklahoma. Hogan could win by double digits.
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Cold War Liberal
KennedyWannabe99
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« Reply #17 on: September 19, 2018, 10:07:16 AM »

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VirginiŠ
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« Reply #18 on: September 19, 2018, 10:13:19 AM »

I really hope Maryland isn't going down the Massachusetts road of perpetual Democratic legislative super-majorities with Republican governors.
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #19 on: September 19, 2018, 11:22:02 AM »

I really hope Maryland isn't going down the Massachusetts road of perpetual Democratic legislative super-majorities with Republican governors.

Too many Black people for that to happen.
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Not_Madigan
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« Reply #20 on: September 19, 2018, 11:26:34 AM »

Well it appears Hogan's outreach to Black voters is going rather well. Probably won't be this lopsided a win, but double digits is definitely possible.

Likely R, closer to Safe than Lean.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #21 on: September 19, 2018, 11:27:06 AM »

Maryland Democrats have essentially abandoned Jealous, there has been almost zero tv spots for him. Really piss poor effort by state officials. Iím debating leaving my ballot blank, other than Jealous, as protest. I already know Iím not voting for the Comptroller (didnít endorse Jealous) and maybe Cardin (still canít forgive his Iran Deal vote).
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Kleine ScheiŖe
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« Reply #22 on: September 19, 2018, 11:30:14 AM »
« Edited: September 19, 2018, 11:33:39 AM by Celes »

Jealous is a fine candidate and Hogan is far from a moderate. His true colors will be shown soon enough. The Maryland Democratic party has done effectively nothing to help Jealous with this campaign and many of them genuinely don't want him to win because he isn't Rushern Baker. It's truly vindictive. Hogan is one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the country and the Maryland Dems have utterly blown it out of sheer spite.

Move from lean to likely R.

Maryland Democrats have essentially abandoned Jealous, there has been almost zero tv spots for him. Really piss poor effort by state officials. Iím debating leaving my ballot blank, other than Jealous, as protest. I already know Iím not voting for the Comptroller (didnít endorse Jealous) and maybe Cardin (still canít forgive his Iran Deal vote).

I also refuse to vote for Franchot. He is a shifty opportunist with calculated political instincts and no principles to speak of.
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
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« Reply #23 on: September 19, 2018, 11:32:17 AM »

Safe R → Safe R.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #24 on: September 19, 2018, 01:01:34 PM »

Hogan is moderate enough on guns, Jealous is too liberal on taxes. If Van Hollen was running with Jealous this would be a close race. I wish Mfume was in the seat instead of Cardin😁

Why would Van Hollen want to give up a Senate seat to be Governor of Maryland?
Though I sometimes wish Van Hollen hadn't run for Senate in 2016, because I think he'd now be the clear favorite for Speaker of the House next year.
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