Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[GP270watch]

I want Democrats to turn out the base, without banking that Independents are swinging their way. Especially when the Republicans are turning out their base. Trump has pretty much solidified the Republican base. He's the most popular Republican president since Reagan, among Republican voters. Democrats have to do better than what they're currently doing in their big counties.

[psychprofessor]

I want Democrats to turn out the base, without banking that Independents are swinging their way. Especially when the Republicans are turning out their base. Trump has pretty much solidified the Republican base. He's the most popular Republican president since Reagan, among Republican voters. Democrats have to do better than what they're currently doing in their big counties.

The fact that at this stage Democrats have surged in early vote to almost pull even is remarkable. Remember, in 2014 Republicans held a tremendous advantage in early and mail vote and Scott barely beat Crist. The fact that Democrats have for the most part pulled even at this point is really noteworthy. And look at how the NPI's have surged, as well.

[2016]

A lot of NPAs in certain counties(I-4) are Latino but that's not true Statewide. I would prefer to see more energized turnout in Florida's big counties(Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach) and have Gillum bank votes. Right now Republicans are banking the votes, the turnout in Lee(31.29%), Collier(27.58%), and Sumter(39.30%) is really good.

Nelson and Gillum have consistently polled 10-15 points better than their opponents with "Independents" - this is what is giving them a lead. Republicans tend to do much better in early vote in midterms in Florida, so if this is essentially even in registration, you have to feel good about their chances this year.

Where are the Polls to back this up then? Thus far I've seen only 2 Polls that have Nelson/Gillum having a 10-15 % lead with Indies....only CNN & Q-Pac have shown Nelson/Gillum having that big of a lead.

[psychprofessor]

A lot of NPAs in certain counties(I-4) are Latino but that's not true Statewide. I would prefer to see more energized turnout in Florida's big counties(Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach) and have Gillum bank votes. Right now Republicans are banking the votes, the turnout in Lee(31.29%), Collier(27.58%), and Sumter(39.30%) is really good.

Nelson and Gillum have consistently polled 10-15 points better than their opponents with "Independents" - this is what is giving them a lead. Republicans tend to do much better in early vote in midterms in Florida, so if this is essentially even in registration, you have to feel good about their chances this year.

Where are the Polls to back this up then? Thus far I've seen only 2 Polls that have Nelson/Gillum having a 10-15 % lead with Indies....only CNN & Q-Pac have shown Nelson/Gillum having that big of a lead.

CNN, Q and NYT/Siena

[KingSweden]

A lot of NPAs in certain counties(I-4) are Latino but that's not true Statewide. I would prefer to see more energized turnout in Florida's big counties(Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach) and have Gillum bank votes. Right now Republicans are banking the votes, the turnout in Lee(31.29%), Collier(27.58%), and Sumter(39.30%) is really good.

Nelson and Gillum have consistently polled 10-15 points better than their opponents with "Independents" - this is what is giving them a lead. Republicans tend to do much better in early vote in midterms in Florida, so if this is essentially even in registration, you have to feel good about their chances this year.

Where are the Polls to back this up then? Thus far I've seen only 2 Polls that have Nelson/Gillum having a 10-15 % lead with Indies....only CNN & Q-Pac have shown Nelson/Gillum having that big of a lead.

And, go figure, QPac and CNN/SSRS are high quality

[psychprofessor]

A lot of NPAs in certain counties(I-4) are Latino but that's not true Statewide. I would prefer to see more energized turnout in Florida's big counties(Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach) and have Gillum bank votes. Right now Republicans are banking the votes, the turnout in Lee(31.29%), Collier(27.58%), and Sumter(39.30%) is really good.

Nelson and Gillum have consistently polled 10-15 points better than their opponents with "Independents" - this is what is giving them a lead. Republicans tend to do much better in early vote in midterms in Florida, so if this is essentially even in registration, you have to feel good about their chances this year.

Where are the Polls to back this up then? Thus far I've seen only 2 Polls that have Nelson/Gillum having a 10-15 % lead with Indies....only CNN & Q-Pac have shown Nelson/Gillum having that big of a lead.

And to take this one step further - and also with a caveat that the sample sizes are small, but in the NYT/Siena poll, both Gillum and Nelson lead with "already voted" by 6 and 7 points, respectively. What this tells me is that the "others", such as NPA's are breaking to the DEMS.

[MT Treasurer]

Montana, as of 10/27/2018:

County (2016-Pres, 2017-AL, 2016-GOV)  (vs. 10/23)

Yellowstone County (Trump +27, Gianforte +18, Gianforte +1): 54.9% of ballots returned (39.523/71.998) (+15.1%)

Missoula County (Clinton +16, Quist +32, Bullock +34): 44% of ballots returned (24.625/55.912) (+12.2%)

Gallatin County (Clinton +1, Quist +14, Bullock +15): 40% of ballots returned (21.973/54.921) (+14.1%)

Flathead County (Trump +36, Gianforte +19, Gianforte +15): 41% of ballots returned (14.476/35.265) (+18.7%)

Cascade County (Trump +22, Gianforte +7, Bullock +10): 47.8% of ballots returned (15.714/32.878) (+16.9%)

Lewis and Clark County (Trump +7, Quist +9, Bullock +23): 49.6% of ballots returned (14.162/28.528) (+20%)

Ravalli County (Trump +38, Gianforte +24, Gianforte +14): 54.2% of ballots returned (8.729/16.099) (+11.9%)

Silver Bow County (Clinton +14, Quist +34, Bullock +44): 50.5% of ballots returned (5.859/11.595) (+12.2%)

Lake County (Trump +21, Gianforte +7, Bullock +2): 51.9% of ballots returned (4.883/9.414) (+12.5%)

-------
Statewide: 47.6% of ballots returned (197.126/414.265) (+14.6%)

[RI]

Big round of TargetSmart updates:

D improvement
AK, ID, KS, VT, WV

R improvement
AR, CA, CO, DE, GA, IA, LA, MD, NC, NM, NV, OR, PA, TN, UT

No change despite new votes
FL, IL, IN, MI, NE, TX, WY

Top ten states as percent of 2014 total (Estimated plurality)
1. Tennessee, 58.6% (65.2% R)
2. Arizona, 54.6% (54.2% R)
3. Nevada, 51.9% (47.6% D)
4. Texas, 51.2% (54.5% R)
5. Montana, 47.3% (46.8% R)
6. Utah, 47.2% (51.7% R)
7. Georgia, 41.0% (52.8% R)
8. New Mexico, 37.5% (57.5% D)
9. North Carolina, 36.0% (51.2% D)
10. Florida, 33.8% (49.9% R)

[Minnesota Mike]

Any one else watching the early vote numbers come in nearly real time on several Florida county websites? More addictive than watching a NYT poll  The excitement of my afternoon was watching Democrats take the lead in total returns in Duval County.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

PA doesn't have early voting.

[ON Progressive]

Any one else watching the early vote numbers come in nearly real time on several Florida county websites? More addictive than watching a NYT poll  The excitement of my afternoon was watching Democrats take the lead in total returns in Duval County.

There's a lot of DINOs in Duval, unfortunately. It has a D+4 registration advantage but always votes Republican unless Dems are doing REALLY well (like Nelson 2012, for instance). Even Obama lost it in 2008.

[junior chįmp]

Indiana:



Marion County absentee voting higher than in 2016 presidential election

[Gass3268]

PA doesn't have early voting.

Basically it's just absentee voters, so old people.

[RI]

Indiana:



Marion County absentee voting higher than in 2016 presidential election

This appears to be the case just about everywhere in Indiana.

[KingSweden]

Indiana:



Marion County absentee voting higher than in 2016 presidential election

This appears to be the case just about everywhere in Indiana.

Even if it changes the ability to make predictive insights, I think the trend of early/absentee voting becoming more popular nationwide across parties is a positive

[Minnesota Mike]

Any one else watching the early vote numbers come in nearly real time on several Florida county websites? More addictive than watching a NYT poll  The excitement of my afternoon was watching Democrats take the lead in total returns in Duval County.

There's a lot of DINOs in Duval, unfortunately. It has a D+4 registration advantage but always votes Republican unless Dems are doing REALLY well (like Nelson 2012, for instance). Even Obama lost it in 2008.

In 2014 Reps +4200 in early/abs voting in Duval, if Dems can keep it close that is big.

[Dr. Arch]

Indiana:



Marion County absentee voting higher than in 2016 presidential election

O__O

[Oryxslayer]

Any one else watching the early vote numbers come in nearly real time on several Florida county websites? More addictive than watching a NYT poll  The excitement of my afternoon was watching Democrats take the lead in total returns in Duval County.

There's a lot of DINOs in Duval, unfortunately. It has a D+4 registration advantage but always votes Republican unless Dems are doing REALLY well (like Nelson 2012, for instance). Even Obama lost it in 2008.

I think its less DINOs and more demographics. More Conservative White NPA's here in contrast to the AAs which a deep blue by Party ID.

[Gass3268]

Any one else watching the early vote numbers come in nearly real time on several Florida county websites? More addictive than watching a NYT poll  The excitement of my afternoon was watching Democrats take the lead in total returns in Duval County.

There's a lot of DINOs in Duval, unfortunately. It has a D+4 registration advantage but always votes Republican unless Dems are doing REALLY well (like Nelson 2012, for instance). Even Obama lost it in 2008.

I think its less DINOs and more demographics. More Conservative White NPA's here in contrast to the AAs which a deep blue by Party ID.

Yet the county does appear to be trending Dem and I think Gillium has a good chance of winning the county.

[Zaybay]

What is the early voting pattern for AZ? Is it like NV, with early vote for Ds coming in on the weekend, or is there a quirk to it like Rs flooding in near the end?

[Oryxslayer]

What is the early voting pattern for AZ? Is it like NV, with early vote for Ds coming in on the weekend, or is there a quirk to it like Rs flooding in near the end?

Not every registered R in AZ is a Pub voter, check the 20% gap between Pub early voter advantage and the end results in the Arizona special early in 2018. Especially since E-Day voting isn't all that meaningful. Its an area where change is happening faster then ID change.

[RI]

What is the early voting pattern for AZ? Is it like NV, with early vote for Ds coming in on the weekend, or is there a quirk to it like Rs flooding in near the end?

Not every registered R in AZ is a Pub voter, check the 20% gap between Pub early voter advantage and the end results in the Arizona special early in 2018. Especially since E-Day voting isn't all that meaningful. Its an area where change is happening faster then ID change.

There are some parts of AZ with ancestral DINOs as well (Greenlee is the most obvious, but not the only place).

[Zaybay]

What is the early voting pattern for AZ? Is it like NV, with early vote for Ds coming in on the weekend, or is there a quirk to it like Rs flooding in near the end?

Not every registered R in AZ is a Pub voter, check the 20% gap between Pub early voter advantage and the end results in the Arizona special early in 2018. Especially since E-Day voting isn't all that meaningful. Its an area where change is happening faster then ID change.

yeah, I know. But my question is if there is a certain way the votes occur, such as in NV. For instance, it has gone 3% down in this week, but will it continue, or will there be a large decrease, or increase?

[Crumpets]

Just mailed in my ballot! I think it speaks to the current state of the WAGOP that Libertarians outnumbered Republicans 3:2 in the races on my ballot, with no Republicans running for any of my state legistlature races.

[KingSweden]

Just mailed in my ballot! I think it speaks to the current state of the WAGOP that Libertarians outnumbered Republicans 3:2 in the races on my ballot, with no Republicans running for any of my state legistlature races.

And if primary night was an indication it’s about to get worse