Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Tartarus Sauce]

Wouldn't it be nice if we could look at the early voting data and not freak out trying to read tea leaves or argue? That would be nice.

It would be nice, but it wouldn't be Atlas.

[Xing]

While everyone was freaking out about the "Dems in disarray" in Nevada because they're not leading by enough, Democrats gained a couple hundred votes thanks to absentees in Clark. Statewide lead is 3.4K. We'll see if they get to 15K statewide, but the way Independents have been voting this year, I'm not sure they'll need to.

Maybe I'm the idiot and am missing something incredibly obvious here

Did you forget about his Incumbency™?

Anyway, while many have said that 2010 isn't a good comparison, and perhaps it's not the best one, it does merit mention that Democrats lost the first week of early voting by about 100 votes in 2010, thanks to a 2,000 vote loss in Washoe, and a lackluster performance in Clark. They won the next week, but only by 7,000 votes, and still lost in Washoe. It stands to reason that Heller could do better among Independents than Sharron Angle, but I think people assuming that anyone with a warm body could have beaten Reid in 2010 is mistaken.

[bilaps]

I think you'll need a reminder what kinds of posts have been written here on day 1 of EV when those numbers favored Dems.

So don't put cold water on these numbers now when they aren't so good for Dems. And if the weekend goes well for them we will see those posts again I'm sure.

Just a fact that we are now talking about how independents will break and how many crossover votes will be and talking about cannibalizing votes in rurals is all you need to know right now about the state of this race which was supposed to be in this kind of year already in the bag for Democrats.

[Brittain33]

This thread is EVERYTHING that is wrong with atlas. We spent weeks before early voting opened warning each other how stupid it is to make predictions off of EV and yet that’s exactly what we’re doing here. Shut the computer off and read a book.

Yes, we know it doesn't prove anything

[IceSpear]

I think you'll need a reminder what kinds of posts have been written here on day 1 of EV when those numbers favored Dems.

So don't put cold water on these numbers now when they aren't so good for Dems. And if the weekend goes well for them we will see those posts again I'm sure.

Just a fact that we are now talking about how independents will break and how many crossover votes will be and talking about cannibalizing votes in rurals is all you need to know right now about the state of this race which was supposed to be in this kind of year already in the bag for Democrats.

Right, the EV is certainly not at the point where Rosen is guaranteed to win, but from the hysterical reactions of some of the posters here you would think Heller already had it in the bag. And yes, the early reactions were also hysterical. I guess that's the one common thread here.

[Gass3268]

Anyone want some North Carolina and Wisconsin numbers or should we wait until everyone cools off a bit?

[KingSweden]

Anyone want some North Carolina and Wisconsin numbers or should we wait until everyone cools off a bit?

INJECT THEM IN MY VEINS

[Virginiá]

Anyone want some North Carolina and Wisconsin numbers or should we wait until everyone cools off a bit?

INJECT THEM IN MY VEINS

Seconded:

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

This thread is EVERYTHING that is wrong with atlas. We spent weeks before early voting opened warning each other how stupid it is to make predictions off of EV and yet that’s exactly what we’re doing here. Shut the computer off and read a book.

It is not stupid to make predictions off of EV. It is stupid to make stupid predictions based off of EV.

[BundouYMB]

While everyone was freaking out about the "Dems in disarray" in Nevada because they're not leading by enough, Democrats gained a couple hundred votes thanks to absentees in Clark. Statewide lead is 3.4K. We'll see if they get to 15K statewide, but the way Independents have been voting this year, I'm not sure they'll need to.

Maybe I'm the idiot and am missing something incredibly obvious here, but as you said, I don't see why Dems need a ridiculously gaudy vote margin otherwise the Unbeatable Titan is inevitable. They ended up needing it in 2016, but that was because independents broke heavily for Trump. The idea that they'd need it again seems to be predicated upon the assumption that they will also break heavily for Heller, which...is certainly not a safe one.

Voters in general broke late towards Trump. Democrats needed a much smaller early vote edge in 2010 when Reid won reelection than they needed in 2016. That suggests election day voters broke VERY hard for Trump, and he still lost by 4... someone I don't think that will happen for Heller. I don't see a single good reason why Democrats would need a larger early vote margin than they did in 2010.

[Gass3268]

I checked with the guy who made this graph, this does include both in-person and mail-in absentee/early vote:



https://twitter.com/jdjmke/status/1055551929756065794

That Milwaukee number is impressive considering they've been a little "eh" since 2012. Decent jump from yesterday too, based on the graph he posted yesterday where they were almost on the blue line.

[bilaps]

While everyone was freaking out about the "Dems in disarray" in Nevada because they're not leading by enough, Democrats gained a couple hundred votes thanks to absentees in Clark. Statewide lead is 3.4K. We'll see if they get to 15K statewide, but the way Independents have been voting this year, I'm not sure they'll need to.

Maybe I'm the idiot and am missing something incredibly obvious here, but as you said, I don't see why Dems need a ridiculously gaudy vote margin otherwise the Unbeatable Titan is inevitable. They ended up needing it in 2016, but that was because independents broke heavily for Trump. The idea that they'd need it again seems to be predicated upon the assumption that they will also break heavily for Heller, which...is certainly not a safe one.

Voters in general broke late towards Trump. Democrats needed a much smaller early vote edge in 2010 when Reid won reelection than they needed in 2016. That suggests election day voters broke VERY hard for Trump, and he still lost by 4... someone I don't think that will happen for Heller. I don't see a single good reason why Democrats would need a larger early vote margin than they did in 2010.

Here's one. Election day vote usually favores Republicans. Dems need bigger lead than in 2010 because there are much more registered voters now.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Right, the EV is certainly not at the point where Rosen is guaranteed to win, but from the hysterical reactions of some of the posters here you would think Heller already had it in the bag. And yes, the early reactions were also hysterical. I guess that's the one common thread here.

To me, it seems perfectly reasonable to by hysterical if Rosen is not guaranteed to win. Rosen should be guaranteed to win by all rights. It is not about Heller having it in the bag. It is about Rosen not having it in the bag, which is really pathetic. Don't succumb to the soft bigotry of low expectations.

[Gass3268]

I can't find the North Carolina chart I saw a couple hours ago. It was really good. I'll try to keep looking in a couple hours.

[IceSpear]

Right, the EV is certainly not at the point where Rosen is guaranteed to win, but from the hysterical reactions of some of the posters here you would think Heller already had it in the bag. And yes, the early reactions were also hysterical. I guess that's the one common thread here.

To me, it seems perfectly reasonable to by hysterical if Rosen is not guaranteed to win. Rosen should be guaranteed to win by all rights. It is not about Heller having it in the bag. It is about Rosen not having it in the bag, which is really pathetic. Don't succumb to the soft bigotry of low expectations.

Eh, fair enough I guess. I guess if you were hoping for/expecting a massive wave something like this would put a damper on it, but I never expected it to be a tsunami. And to me Rosen still looks on track to win, albeit by a smaller margin than I would've predicted a week ago.

Plus, we still have a lot of time left before this EV data is final.

[psychprofessor]

Right, the EV is certainly not at the point where Rosen is guaranteed to win, but from the hysterical reactions of some of the posters here you would think Heller already had it in the bag. And yes, the early reactions were also hysterical. I guess that's the one common thread here.

To me, it seems perfectly reasonable to by hysterical if Rosen is not guaranteed to win. Rosen should be guaranteed to win by all rights. It is not about Heller having it in the bag. It is about Rosen not having it in the bag, which is really pathetic. Don't succumb to the soft bigotry of low expectations.

Eh, fair enough I guess. I guess if you were hoping for/expecting a massive wave something like this would put a damper on it, but I never expected it to be a tsunami. And to me Rosen still looks on track to win, albeit by a smaller margin than I would've predicted a week ago.

Plus, we still have a lot of time left before this EV data is final.

A wave isn't winning by large margins...a wave is when all the close states break your way. NV and AZ were never going to be large margin wins...but in a wave they will both break to the DEMS.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I can't find the North Carolina chart I saw a couple hours ago. It was really good. I'll try to keep looking in a couple hours.

The problem with NC is that there are no major statewide races driving turnout. Other than Supreme Court, the races that matter are Congressional Districts and maybe some state legislative districts. So just looking at statewide #s doesn't tell very much.

[IceSpear]

Right, the EV is certainly not at the point where Rosen is guaranteed to win, but from the hysterical reactions of some of the posters here you would think Heller already had it in the bag. And yes, the early reactions were also hysterical. I guess that's the one common thread here.

To me, it seems perfectly reasonable to by hysterical if Rosen is not guaranteed to win. Rosen should be guaranteed to win by all rights. It is not about Heller having it in the bag. It is about Rosen not having it in the bag, which is really pathetic. Don't succumb to the soft bigotry of low expectations.

Eh, fair enough I guess. I guess if you were hoping for/expecting a massive wave something like this would put a damper on it, but I never expected it to be a tsunami. And to me Rosen still looks on track to win, albeit by a smaller margin than I would've predicted a week ago.

Plus, we still have a lot of time left before this EV data is final.

A wave isn't winning by large margins...a wave is when all the close states break your way. NV and AZ were never going to be large margin wins...but in a wave they will both break to the DEMS.

AZ was never going to be a large win? Atlas told me otherwise in the summer, lol.

[Comrade Funk]

[Dr. Arch]

I said this would happen, and here we are.

[Kodak]

I checked with the guy who made this graph, this does include both in-person and mail-in absentee/early vote:



https://twitter.com/jdjmke/status/1055551929756065794

That Milwaukee number is impressive considering they've been a little "eh" since 2012. Decent jump from yesterday too, based on the graph he posted yesterday where they were almost on the blue line.

What's going on in Waukesha County?

[KingSweden]

I checked with the guy who made this graph, this does include both in-person and mail-in absentee/early vote:



https://twitter.com/jdjmke/status/1055551929756065794

That Milwaukee number is impressive considering they've been a little "eh" since 2012. Decent jump from yesterday too, based on the graph he posted yesterday where they were almost on the blue line.

What's going on in Waukesha County?

It always has pretty solid turnout and is basically the distilled essence of Scott Walker

[IceSpear]

What's going on in Waukesha County?

My guess is Republicans who are fired up to vote for Walker that weren't fired up to vote for Trump. But that's nothing we didn't already know. Walker would be DOA if he was showing any weakness in WOW.

[KingSweden]

What's going on in Waukesha County?

My guess is Republicans who are fired up to vote for Walker that weren't fired up to vote for Trump. But that's nothing we didn't already know. Walker would be DOA if he was showing any weakness in WOW.

WashCo’s numbers aren’t impressive in this chart but idk how that usually occurs to the other W and the O

[Gass3268]

What's going on in Waukesha County?

My guess is Republicans who are fired up to vote for Walker that weren't fired up to vote for Trump. But that's nothing we didn't already know. Walker would be DOA if he was showing any weakness in WOW.

I’m pretty sure Walker is going to underperform his margins in the WOW counties too.