Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[SCNCmod]

I've tried to keep up somewhat with this Early voting thread... but all the references to specific counties, etc is a bit over my head....

Can someone provide a quick summary of Early voting thus far in competitive Senate states- mainly any conclusion/ indications that can be drawn? ...NV, AZ, MO, FL (and if there is anything notable in numbers from TN, ND, TX, IN, MT).

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/EdEspinoza/status/1054401592940810240

Very encouraging.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Here's a big crowd of mostly white people listening to Beto at an early vote location on Montgomery County (Northern Houston area, normally a very very Republican area).

https://twitter.com/shannonrwatts/status/1054383660294647811

[Brittain33]

Why can't you Democrats just give up? I don't like Cruz but he is going to get reelected. These Pictures are just blowing up smoke by these fanatic Democrats.

It’s a politics forum. This is our hobby!

[bilaps]

A reason why people are cautioned about early vote and pictures and videos like this from TX is that we don't know nothing about election day vote and what percentage early vote will be of the total vote. Yes, dems are excited but maybe a lot of these people would vote later during early vote period or they would vote on election day. That's why FL in 2016 is great caution story for everyone. I'm willing to beleive in NV numbers can say something because majority of the votes are early votes and because they have good track record in predicting cause it's a small state. I don't buy anything into these pictures and random reports about turnout in TX except that yes, race is competitive which we already know. 5pts race IS competitive.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I found some more twitter reports of high turnout in other parts of TX besides just Houston/Austin. This is, in general, good news for Beto, because he needs a drastically different and bigger electorate to show up than in a normal midterm:

https://twitter.com/scottbraddock/status/1054389393455284224



Lines in El Paso:

https://twitter.com/efrivera1966/status/1054416328440729605

Lines of college students at UT San Antonio - this one seems particularly good for Beto, having college students actually voting:

https://twitter.com/rks127th/status/1054421088099356672

Lubbock:

https://twitter.com/CaprockDemocrat/status/1054419951140945920

Lines in Round Rock (TX-31):

https://twitter.com/Astros290/status/1054424093532082176

Lines in San Marcos:

https://twitter.com/masg66/status/1054402237143937024

Lines in San Angelo:

https://twitter.com/SanAngeloLIVE/status/1054415590172057600

Lines in Witchita Falls:

https://twitter.com/DanielleKAUZ/status/1054420665514770432

Lines in Fort Worth:

https://twitter.com/Kauz_Girl/status/1054409371906662402

More lines in Fort Worth:

https://twitter.com/BrittanyYowell/status/1054417296935018496

Early voting lines in Dallas:

https://twitter.com/KenKalthoffNBC5/status/1054415191096676358

More lines in Dallas:

https://twitter.com/lwgowin/status/1054365101590044672

More lines in Dallas:

https://twitter.com/MattMackowiak/status/1054403256158511105

More lines in Dallas:

https://twitter.com/maaronjo/status/1054409602366881792

More lines in Dallas:

https://twitter.com/CPerk999/status/1054406577338355712

More lines in Dallas:

https://twitter.com/itsjveliz/status/1054381742797320192

Early voting lines in Austin:

https://twitter.com/EricaGrieder/status/1054417832975441921

More lines in Austin (University of Texas):

https://twitter.com/RoannaFlowers/status/1054419154953031680

More lines in Austin:

https://twitter.com/SuzanneMOMalley/status/1054401844640919552

More lines in Houston:

https://twitter.com/absolutspacegrl/status/1054357967850651649


That is probably enough...

[bilaps]

One of the bigger rural counties updated in NV for day 1, Nye county. Turnout was way higher than in 2014, 300 more people voted. Party breakdown comparing with week 1 is somewhere along 2014 lines, Republicans outperforming by 3%

[ON Progressive]

One of the bigger rural counties updated in NV for day 1, Nye county. Turnout was way higher than in 2014, 300 people voted. Party breakdown comparing with week 1 is somewhere along 2014 lines, Republicans outperforming by 3%

The rurals really don't matter as long as Clark/Washoe have decent turnout.

[GeorgiaModerate]

A cautionary note to keep in mind regarding early voting numbers: the party breakdown is informative but not definitive.  All it tells you is how these voters are registered, or possibly which party's primary they last voted in, but it doesn't tell you how they actually voted in this election.

[Xing]

Looks like most of the rurals from Saturday which were missing (every county except Lyon) have reported, and cut the Democratic edge to 6.4K for in person voting, 4.2K overall (strange that Nye's absentees weren't reported by party.) That's only a few hundred votes, though, and clearly high turnout in Clark and a strong performance in Washoe is what will be critical for Democrats.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Turnout in San Antonio TX (Bexar County) almost was already past 2014 levels by noon.

https://twitter.com/EricaGrieder/status/1054434362287181824

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Turnout in Travis County (Austin) so far as compared to 2014 and 2016:

https://twitter.com/EvaRuth/status/1054439644786503680

So already more than 50% higher than 2014 by 1 PM, and already half of 2016 levels by then, with many more hours of voting to go.

Similar story in Harris County (Houston):

https://twitter.com/zachdespart/status/1054437569746952192

For comparison, 67,471 people voted on the 1st day of 2016 early voting in Harris County.

[Virginiá]

Please don't dump dozen(s) of tweets at a time.

If you're going to use more than 4 or so in a message, just quote the text and use a tweet link.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Please don't dump dozen(s) of tweets at a time.

If you're going to use more than 4 or so in a message, just quote the text and use a tweet link.

OK, sorry.

[Nyvin]

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog

[henster]

Any thoughts on this out of OH?

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https://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2018/10/early_voting_sharply_increases.html

[Seattle]

As of 12PM, King County has received 18,415 ballots, or 1.47% of registered voters (up from ~4,300 recorded as of Sunday).
Trickle should turn into a deluge by the end of the week.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

OK, I wouldn't post another tweet about a line in TX, but I just have to link to this one because it is so insane.

https://twitter.com/EdKrassen/status/1054454561342193665

Watch the video here... The video walks down the entire length of the line, and it is just unbelievably long. WOW. It is really worth watching, you won't believe it unless you see it.

This is in Houston.

[Gass3268]

More registered Republicans than registered Democrats voting early right now in Senate race states

However they also say that women voters have outpaced men voters in most states (tied in Arizona, behind in Nevada). Also suburban voters have outpaced rural and urban voters in most states (more rural in Montana, urban in Arizona and Texas). Unfortunately no comparisons to past years.

[Ebsy]

More registered Republicans than registered Democrats voting early right now in Senate race states

However they also say that women voters have outpaced men voters in most states (tied in Arizona, behind in Nevada). Also suburban voters have outpaced rural and urban voters in most states (more rural in Montana, urban in Arizona and Texas). Unfortunately no comparisons to past years.

This is based on inane Targetsmart's "modeled partisanship". Not worth much.

[Beet]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/republicans-outpacing-democrats-early-voting-key-states-nbc-news-finds-n922881?cid=sm_npd_ms_fb_ma

GOP-affiliated voters have surpassed Democratic-affiliated ones in early voting in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee and Texas, the data showed.

[Gass3268]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/republicans-outpacing-democrats-early-voting-key-states-nbc-news-finds-n922881?cid=sm_npd_ms_fb_ma

GOP-affiliated voters have surpassed Democratic-affiliated ones in early voting in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee and Texas, the data showed.

I just posted that.

[IceSpear]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/republicans-outpacing-democrats-early-voting-key-states-nbc-news-finds-n922881?cid=sm_npd_ms_fb_ma

GOP-affiliated voters have surpassed Democratic-affiliated ones in early voting in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee and Texas, the data showed.

I mean, isn't that expected in all of those states? If Dems are winning any of those states it's going to be due to good to amazing margins among independents.

[Gass3268]

Duval County and Orange County in Florida have both probably passed their 2014 totals for day one of in person voting.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Early voting really boils down to more conservative voting in midterms and presidential elections more secular voting patterns due to influx of more college students voting in presidential elections.  We will see more secular voting patterns on election night, but AZ, I think Dems will catch on and in TN senate race