Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Holmes]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1054160972158357504

Scary numbers for the GOP.

Ralston going hard against his own reporting that 2014 isn't good year to compare.

Fwiw he’s just saying in that tweet that turnout will be 3x-4x higher than 2014, nothing predictive of actual results.

[Brittain33]

anyone know where we can find numbers for NC? I voted Friday and the line to vote was very long.

This account has a ton of data, not sure if it's exactly what you're looking for

https://twitter.com/oldnorthstpol

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1054160972158357504

Scary numbers for the GOP.

Ralston going hard against his own reporting that 2014 isn't good year to compare.

His own reporting said this:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

If you compare to 2010, Clark turnout on the first Sunday of in-person early voting was 12,572. So this is roughly 4500 more than that at 3 PM today, and there's another 5 hours before everything is closed.

[Ebsy]

Washoe numbers are in.

[ON Progressive]

Washoe numbers are in.

That's a 46.64-35.99 Democratic lead. Democrats leading Washoe early vote by double digits in the first two days is amazing.

[Brittain33]

The gap closed a bit, but Republicans need to be at least tied in Washoe, don't they?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Washoe numbers are in.

Bad #’s for Dean

[Ebsy]

The gap closed a bit, but Republicans need to be at least tied in Washoe, don't they?

I'm not exactly sure what number in the early Republicans need in Washoe to stitch together a winning coalition but they certainly need to win it overall, especially if, as it looks to be the case, Clark County is actually voting.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yeah, I would not want to be Dean Heller right now...

[Xing]

Great numbers from Washoe! Those numbers would be enough to put the in-person voting lead for Democrats up to 5K, and the overall lead to 3K. And that's before anything from Clark is counted, where we're headed for high turnout as well. It's still early, but today is not suggesting that yesterday was an anomaly.

[Nyvin]

It'll be really interesting to see Washoe's end of week data.   

Still kinda early to call two day's worth any kind of trend.

[Holmes]

Iirc Nevada early voting starts off very Democratic (and high turnout), becomes more Republican throughout the week, then again very Democratic in the weekend, repeat the cycle, then a large Democratic push in the final days of early voting.

[henster]

Hopefully in person early voting #'s in FL will be just as good tomorrow.

[TarHeelDem]

anyone know where we can find numbers for NC? I voted Friday and the line to vote was very long.

As referenced earlier, Old North State Politics by Dr. Michael Bitzer on Twitter is a great source. I'm curious about what part of the state you were voting in. Any details about what you saw that might be important?

[Vern]

anyone know where we can find numbers for NC? I voted Friday and the line to vote was very long.

As referenced earlier, Old North State Politics by Dr. Michael Bitzer on Twitter is a great source. I'm curious about what part of the state you were voting in. Any details about what you saw that might be important?

I was voting in Burlington, NC (CD-6). And the people that were voting while I was there was a mix group (age wise). I also heard a lot of people talking about how this was the most important Mid-term in their life time.

[MT Treasurer]

These numbers really don’t tell us anything at this point, but since this is the early/absentee voting thread, I figured I might post some Montana updates here if it doesn’t irritate anyone. These are the most populous/important counties in the state:

Montana, as of 10/20/2018:

County (2016-Pres, 2017-AL, 2016-GOV)

Yellowstone County (Trump +27, Gianforte +18, Gianforte +1): 28.9% of ballots returned (20.632/71.423)

Missoula County (Clinton +16, Quist +32, Bullock +34): 21% of ballots returned (11.482/54.504)

Gallatin County (Clinton +1, Quist +14, Bullock +15): 16% of ballots returned (8.662/54.087)

Flathead County (Trump +36, Gianforte +19, Gianforte +15): 7% of ballots returned (2.424/34.280)

Cascade County (Trump +22, Gianforte +7, Bullock +10): 24.9% of ballots returned (8.110/32.525)

Lewis and Clark County (Trump +7, Quist +9, Bullock +23): 22.5% of ballots returned (6.239/27.753)

Ravalli County (Trump +38, Gianforte +24, Gianforte +14): 27.9% of ballots returned (4.322/15.492)

Silver Bow County (Clinton +14, Quist +34, Bullock +44): 21.5% of ballots returned (2.432/11.312)

Lake County (Trump +21, Gianforte +7, Bullock +2): 28.3% of ballots returned (2.580/9.104)

-------
Statewide: 21.8% of ballots returned (88.107/404.217)

[Gass3268]

Hopefully in person early voting #'s in FL will be just as good tomorrow.

Mail in vote has been good so far, compared to 2014 the Democrats have cut the Republican lead in half.

[IceSpear]

This is a pretty interesting bit from Ralston's early vote in Nevada blog:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

If an uninspiring candidate like Rosen can pull this off with new voters and "missing" voters, just imagine what dynamic candidates like Abrams and Gillum can do.

Or maybe Rosen just isn't the weak candidate Atlas thinks she is? Crazy thought, I know, but I like to be Bold.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is a pretty interesting bit from Ralston's early vote in Nevada blog:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

If an uninspiring candidate like Rosen can pull this off with new voters and "missing" voters, just imagine what dynamic candidates like Abrams and Gillum can do.

Or maybe Rosen just isn't the weak candidate Atlas thinks she is? Crazy thought, I know, but I like to be Bold.

Will Wacky Jacky end up smitin' the titan?

[TarHeelDem]

Atlas' obsession with diminishing Rosen has been one of the most amusing parts of this cycle for me. Gonna be fun watching the same people deal with her as a senator post-election.

[Xing]

Atlas' obsession with diminishing Rosen has been one of the most amusing parts of this cycle for me. Gonna be fun watching the same people deal with her as a senator post-election.

We'll hear lots of hot takes about how Heller ran a terrible campaign and how any Democrat with a pulse could've beaten him. Depending on how good of a night Democrats have, there could be some truth to that, but Rosen really hasn't been a bad candidate. People just forget very quickly how bad polling in Nevada is.

[henster]

I wish Amy McGrath or MJ Hegar had decided to move to NV after 2016, and they could've pulled it off because most of NV voters are pretty new anyways.

[IceSpear]

Atlas' obsession with diminishing Rosen has been one of the most amusing parts of this cycle for me. Gonna be fun watching the same people deal with her as a senator post-election.

We'll hear lots of hot takes about how Heller ran a terrible campaign and how any Democrat with a pulse could've beaten him. Depending on how good of a night Democrats have, there could be some truth to that, but Rosen really hasn't been a bad candidate. People just forget very quickly how bad polling in Nevada is.

It wouldn't be the first time Atlas's judgment of Candidate Quality™ and Campaign Quality™ did a 180 the second the election results came in.

[IceSpear]

Imagine a world where a male Democrat had picked up a Trump-won seat in NV-3 in 2016 of all years and then run for Senate. Atlas would be declaring them the star candidate of the cycle

LOL, so true.

Actually, this did sort of happen with Patrick Murphy in 2016. He was an extremely Strong Candidate™ and a Great Recruit™, then he lost and in retrospect became a Weak Candidate™ who ran a Weak Campaign™. Gotta love hindsight bias and outcome bias!

[Xing]

Looks like turnout was about 23.7K in Clark, but Democrats had a smaller advantage. About 10.4K-8.8K. Their overall advantage for in-person voting in Clark is now 46.5% to 35.1%, smaller than it is in Washoe.