Justice Kavanaugh Confirmation Hearing *DISCUSSION AND LIVE COMMENTARY*

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I still feel that Kavanaugh will get confirmed.

The vote is going to be either 51-49 or 52-48 (Manchin is the only Democrat to vote for Kavanaugh).

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

I just don't get what McConnell's doing.
Kavanaugh is becoming politically toxic, and could easily be replaced by Barrett.
Instead he's roaring ahead, in an attempt to muscle the nominee onto the court.

Either he's playing 12th dimensional chess, beyond the scope of my feeble mind, or he's losing his touch. If Cruz makes a gaffe during the testimony, or during voting, and actually puts Texas into play, then McConnell can only blame himself.

He's got less capital to threaten the Red-state Dems with, given how public the Kavanaugh allegations have become, and he's unnecessarily endangering Heller and Cruz by making them vote for a highly controversial nominee.

Not the mention the effect on the House.

Ignoring the questions of how long replacing Kavanaugh would take and whether they'd still have the votes to confirm someone by then, it would be demoralizing.  It would look like the Republicans either admitting they made a mistake in supporting him, or that they aren't loyal their people when they come under fire.  

I don't know why the Republicans are so resistant to this.  Look at what happened with Harriet Miers; after she withdrew, Alito was appointed and unanimously easily confirmed.  Surely no conservative can be unhappy with how he turned out on the bench.

GOP establishment had a lot more sway with the base in 2005 then they do in 2018. Back then, they could drop Myers and face no backlash from the base. Today, you drop Kavanaugh, you will be seen as a sellout.

Harriet Miers was deemed insufficiently conservative for the GOP base, IIRC.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I just don't get what McConnell's doing.
Kavanaugh is becoming politically toxic, and could easily be replaced by Barrett.
Instead he's roaring ahead, in an attempt to muscle the nominee onto the court.

Either he's playing 12th dimensional chess, beyond the scope of my feeble mind, or he's losing his touch. If Cruz makes a gaffe during the testimony, or during voting, and actually puts Texas into play, then McConnell can only blame himself.

He's got less capital to threaten the Red-state Dems with, given how public the Kavanaugh allegations have become, and he's unnecessarily endangering Heller and Cruz by making them vote for a highly controversial nominee.

Not the mention the effect on the House.

Ignoring the questions of how long replacing Kavanaugh would take and whether they'd still have the votes to confirm someone by then, it would be demoralizing.  It would look like the Republicans either admitting they made a mistake in supporting him, or that they aren't loyal their people when they come under fire. 

I don't know why the Republicans are so resistant to this.  Look at what happened with Harriet Miers; after she withdrew, Alito was appointed and unanimously easily confirmed.  Surely no conservative can be unhappy with how he turned out on the bench.

GOP establishment had a lot more sway with the base in 2005 then they do in 2018. Back then, they could drop Myers and face no backlash from the base. Today, you drop Kavanaugh, you will be seen as a sellout.

Harriet Miers was deemed insufficiently conservative for the GOP base, IIRC.

She also had absolutely no idea what the 4th amendment was.

[Horsemask]

I just don't get what McConnell's doing.
Kavanaugh is becoming politically toxic, and could easily be replaced by Barrett.
Instead he's roaring ahead, in an attempt to muscle the nominee onto the court.

Either he's playing 12th dimensional chess, beyond the scope of my feeble mind, or he's losing his touch. If Cruz makes a gaffe during the testimony, or during voting, and actually puts Texas into play, then McConnell can only blame himself.

He's got less capital to threaten the Red-state Dems with, given how public the Kavanaugh allegations have become, and he's unnecessarily endangering Heller and Cruz by making them vote for a highly controversial nominee.

Not the mention the effect on the House.

Ignoring the questions of how long replacing Kavanaugh would take and whether they'd still have the votes to confirm someone by then, it would be demoralizing.  It would look like the Republicans either admitting they made a mistake in supporting him, or that they aren't loyal their people when they come under fire.  

I don't know why the Republicans are so resistant to this.  Look at what happened with Harriet Miers; after she withdrew, Alito was appointed and unanimously easily confirmed.  Surely no conservative can be unhappy with how he turned out on the bench.

GOP establishment had a lot more sway with the base in 2005 then they do in 2018. Back then, they could drop Myers and face no backlash from the base. Today, you drop Kavanaugh, you will be seen as a sellout.

Harriet Miers was deemed insufficiently conservative for the GOP base, IIRC.

She was completely unqualified.

[Yank2133]

I just don't get what McConnell's doing.
Kavanaugh is becoming politically toxic, and could easily be replaced by Barrett.
Instead he's roaring ahead, in an attempt to muscle the nominee onto the court.

Either he's playing 12th dimensional chess, beyond the scope of my feeble mind, or he's losing his touch. If Cruz makes a gaffe during the testimony, or during voting, and actually puts Texas into play, then McConnell can only blame himself.

He's got less capital to threaten the Red-state Dems with, given how public the Kavanaugh allegations have become, and he's unnecessarily endangering Heller and Cruz by making them vote for a highly controversial nominee.

Not the mention the effect on the House.

Ignoring the questions of how long replacing Kavanaugh would take and whether they'd still have the votes to confirm someone by then, it would be demoralizing.  It would look like the Republicans either admitting they made a mistake in supporting him, or that they aren't loyal their people when they come under fire.  

I don't know why the Republicans are so resistant to this.  Look at what happened with Harriet Miers; after she withdrew, Alito was appointed and unanimously easily confirmed.  Surely no conservative can be unhappy with how he turned out on the bench.

GOP establishment had a lot more sway with the base in 2005 then they do in 2018. Back then, they could drop Myers and face no backlash from the base. Today, you drop Kavanaugh, you will be seen as a sellout.

Harriet Miers was deemed insufficiently conservative for the GOP base, IIRC.

I thought it was the lack of experience that did her in?

[new_patomic]

I feel like it wouldn't be that hard to sell the base on a new nominee.

Sure it would be demoralizing. For at least a week.

But if Kavanaugh himself were to step aside, or Trump were to take charge of the situation, the battle will become over the new nominee instead of fighting it over the old one.

[JG]

I just don't get what McConnell's doing.
Kavanaugh is becoming politically toxic, and could easily be replaced by Barrett.
Instead he's roaring ahead, in an attempt to muscle the nominee onto the court.

Either he's playing 12th dimensional chess, beyond the scope of my feeble mind, or he's losing his touch. If Cruz makes a gaffe during the testimony, or during voting, and actually puts Texas into play, then McConnell can only blame himself.

He's got less capital to threaten the Red-state Dems with, given how public the Kavanaugh allegations have become, and he's unnecessarily endangering Heller and Cruz by making them vote for a highly controversial nominee.

Not the mention the effect on the House.

Ignoring the questions of how long replacing Kavanaugh would take and whether they'd still have the votes to confirm someone by then, it would be demoralizing.  It would look like the Republicans either admitting they made a mistake in supporting him, or that they aren't loyal their people when they come under fire.  

I don't know why the Republicans are so resistant to this.  Look at what happened with Harriet Miers; after she withdrew, Alito was appointed and unanimously confirmed.  Surely no conservative can be unhappy with how he turned out on the bench.

Uh, Alito's confirmation vote was not unanimous. Check your history book and try again.

Plus Harriet Miers was not pulled a month before a national election, she was pulled earlier in the process, and conservative Senators were tepid at best in their support for her nomination.

My point is that Kavanaugh is not the only conservative judge around, and he could be replaced with an equally conservative candidate to get the same long-term result but without (more) controversy.  There's still time to get another nominee through, if they move expeditiously.  So it just seems to me like that would be the politically smart thing to do.

The problem is that if Kavanaugh goes down, any man can go down. Any man can be taken down at any time by any vengeful woman who claims they were assaulted in kindergarten 50 years ago. It'll be like the Salem Witch trial writ large.

Just the guilty ones. For example if I were the nominee, there would be no credible stories about me. Presumably same for you, and many other potential Trump nominees, including Gorsuch.

You can only say that because you aren't currently in that position, not because it actually means you aren't guilty of those actions. 
(I should note that I'm not accusing you of it, but pointing out a major flaw in your argument)

Based on the commentary provided in this thread and several others, all it takes is an accusation and some biased sources claiming "yeah I heard about it once" for someone to be immediately labeled as guilty. As of this time, there has been no credible evidence that Kavanaugh actually did the things he's being accused of, or even anything that puts him and the named witnesses in the same place at the same time as the accusers mentioned. If Dems really want to take sexual assault seriously, it should include not labeling someone a rapist until there's something credible that actually links them to the crime. Otherwise it's just a one-sided joke.

I would assume the number of women willing to go through all the death threats on her and her family, the political party of the assaulter and the media bringing up her past and the destroying her right in front of the public eye just to get back at a man she met decades ago would probably be quite low.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I feel like it wouldn't be that hard to sell the base on a new nominee.

Sure it would be demoralizing. For at least a week.

But if Kavanaugh himself were to step aside, or Trump were to take charge of the situation, the battle will become over the new nominee instead of fighting it over the old one.

Just imagine the 2020 primary ads (when there a lot more GOP senators up for election then there are this year):

"Senator Cory Gardner didn't fight hard enough for Kavanaugh and allowed the left's smear campaign to succeed. Vote for a senator who will never be quiet and spend every day viciously fighting the left!"

Plus Fthagn is right that it would illustrate that the standard for proving someone guilty of sexual assault is one accusation, no evidence required. Regardless of what the truth is here, it creates incentive to bribe people to create false accusations against any nominee that someone doesn't like.

[fhtagn]

I just don't get what McConnell's doing.
Kavanaugh is becoming politically toxic, and could easily be replaced by Barrett.
Instead he's roaring ahead, in an attempt to muscle the nominee onto the court.

Either he's playing 12th dimensional chess, beyond the scope of my feeble mind, or he's losing his touch. If Cruz makes a gaffe during the testimony, or during voting, and actually puts Texas into play, then McConnell can only blame himself.

He's got less capital to threaten the Red-state Dems with, given how public the Kavanaugh allegations have become, and he's unnecessarily endangering Heller and Cruz by making them vote for a highly controversial nominee.

Not the mention the effect on the House.

Ignoring the questions of how long replacing Kavanaugh would take and whether they'd still have the votes to confirm someone by then, it would be demoralizing.  It would look like the Republicans either admitting they made a mistake in supporting him, or that they aren't loyal their people when they come under fire.  

I don't know why the Republicans are so resistant to this.  Look at what happened with Harriet Miers; after she withdrew, Alito was appointed and unanimously confirmed.  Surely no conservative can be unhappy with how he turned out on the bench.

Uh, Alito's confirmation vote was not unanimous. Check your history book and try again.

Plus Harriet Miers was not pulled a month before a national election, she was pulled earlier in the process, and conservative Senators were tepid at best in their support for her nomination.

My point is that Kavanaugh is not the only conservative judge around, and he could be replaced with an equally conservative candidate to get the same long-term result but without (more) controversy.  There's still time to get another nominee through, if they move expeditiously.  So it just seems to me like that would be the politically smart thing to do.

The problem is that if Kavanaugh goes down, any man can go down. Any man can be taken down at any time by any vengeful woman who claims they were assaulted in kindergarten 50 years ago. It'll be like the Salem Witch trial writ large.

Just the guilty ones. For example if I were the nominee, there would be no credible stories about me. Presumably same for you, and many other potential Trump nominees, including Gorsuch.

You can only say that because you aren't currently in that position, not because it actually means you aren't guilty of those actions.  
(I should note that I'm not accusing you of it, but pointing out a major flaw in your argument)

Based on the commentary provided in this thread and several others, all it takes is an accusation and some biased sources claiming "yeah I heard about it once" for someone to be immediately labeled as guilty. As of this time, there has been no credible evidence that Kavanaugh actually did the things he's being accused of, or even anything that puts him and the named witnesses in the same place at the same time as the accusers mentioned. If Dems really want to take sexual assault seriously, it should include not labeling someone a rapist until there's something credible that actually links them to the crime. Otherwise it's just a one-sided joke.

I would assume the number of women willing to go through all the death threats on her and her family, the political party of the assaulter and the media bringing up her past and the destroying her right in front of the public eye just to get back at a man she met decades ago would probably be quite low.

People could have any number of motives for these sorts of things, even if it risks ruining their name too.

I also find it interesting since death threats have been mentioned by numerous people on here that not a single one of them have expressed any sort of concern for the fact that Kavanaugh and his family have been receiving them as well. But I guess since he's the accused he doesn't deserve anyone's concern, nor do his wife and kids, amirite?

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/nytpolitics/status/1044378163927797760

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

https://twitter.com/nytpolitics/status/1044378163927797760

This sort of thing is typical high school fare. Most people have said or wrote things in high school they wish they hadn't. It doesn't mean your entire life should be ruined. Next.

[JG]

https://twitter.com/nytpolitics/status/1044378163927797760

This sort of thing is typical high school fare. Most people have said or wrote things in high school they wish they hadn't. It doesn't mean your entire life should be ruined. Next.

It does go against his ''I was still a virgin'' narrative he is trying to push, though, which raises doubts at how truthful he's being.

[7,052,770]

https://twitter.com/nytpolitics/status/1044378163927797760

This sort of thing is typical high school fare. Most people have said or wrote things in high school they wish they hadn't. It doesn't mean your entire life should be ruined. Next.

The fact that he and others consider themselves to be "alumni" of this woman suggests that he's probably FOS when he claims he was a virgin throughout high school and college. And if he's dishonest about that, it makes him less credible when he claims to be innocent of the other accusations.

[7,052,770]

I also find it interesting since death threats have been mentioned by numerous people on here that not a single one of them have expressed any sort of concern for the fact that Kavanaugh and his family have been receiving them as well. But I guess since he's the accused he doesn't deserve anyone's concern, nor do his wife and kids, amirite?

Why are you such a combative, mean-spirited person in every thread you post in? Not a single Democrat here has expressed any support for the death threats you're talking about (this is the first I'm hearing of them) and obviously we all strongly condemn them. You know this, but as usual you'd rather get a "sick burn" in on the libs than have a sincere, good-faith discussion.

[IceSpear]

I just don't get what McConnell's doing.
Kavanaugh is becoming politically toxic, and could easily be replaced by Barrett.
Instead he's roaring ahead, in an attempt to muscle the nominee onto the court.

Either he's playing 12th dimensional chess, beyond the scope of my feeble mind, or he's losing his touch. If Cruz makes a gaffe during the testimony, or during voting, and actually puts Texas into play, then McConnell can only blame himself.

He's got less capital to threaten the Red-state Dems with, given how public the Kavanaugh allegations have become, and he's unnecessarily endangering Heller and Cruz by making them vote for a highly controversial nominee.

Not the mention the effect on the House.

Ignoring the questions of how long replacing Kavanaugh would take and whether they'd still have the votes to confirm someone by then, it would be demoralizing.  It would look like the Republicans either admitting they made a mistake in supporting him, or that they aren't loyal their people when they come under fire.  

I don't know why the Republicans are so resistant to this.  Look at what happened with Harriet Miers; after she withdrew, Alito was appointed and unanimously easily confirmed.  Surely no conservative can be unhappy with how he turned out on the bench.

GOP establishment had a lot more sway with the base in 2005 then they do in 2018. Back then, they could drop Myers and face no backlash from the base. Today, you drop Kavanaugh, you will be seen as a sellout.

Not to mention nobody cared about Myers, and it was over a year before the next election.

[Gass3268]

Ouch:

https://twitter.com/vanitaguptaCR/status/1044391612917403648

[fhtagn]

I also find it interesting since death threats have been mentioned by numerous people on here that not a single one of them have expressed any sort of concern for the fact that Kavanaugh and his family have been receiving them as well. But I guess since he's the accused he doesn't deserve anyone's concern, nor do his wife and kids, amirite?

Why are you such a combative, mean-spirited person in every thread you post in? Not a single Democrat here has expressed any support for the death threats you're talking about (this is the first I'm hearing of them) and obviously we all strongly condemn them. You know this, but as usual you'd rather get a "sick burn" in on the libs than have a sincere, good-faith discussion.

Get back to me when the majority of this thread actually cares about a good faith discussion instead of labeling someone a rapist with no evidence, yourself included.

The comments about death threats on here have been related to ones against Ford. None of them mention the ones received by Kavanaugh and his family, which have been reported by several news outlets, so it's not likely for it to have been missed. So no, it isn't obvious you all strongly condemn them, it's only obvious that you condemn them when they're directed towards the person you're supporting.


And helpful tip for some folks on here: If you actually expect someone to take your points seriously and be willing to have a "good faith discussion", reducing differing opinions to "triggering the libs" or "you'd rather get a 'sick burn' on the libs" isn't the smartest route to take.

[pppolitics]

How come Dean Heller is not undecided?

Shouldn't he be pretending that he's a moderate right now?

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I think that he might vote for Kavanaugh. Discuss.

[ON Progressive]

I feel like he may, but not if he's the deciding vote.

[MT Treasurer]

How come Dean Heller is not undecided?

Shouldn't he be pretending that he's a moderate right now?

Democrats aren’t going to vote for him regardless of what he does, but he desperately needs the R base to come out for him.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

How come Dean Heller is not undecided?

Shouldn't he be pretending that he's a moderate right now?

Democrats aren’t going to vote for him regardless of what he does, but he desperately needs the R base to come out for him.

You do realize he's ahead in the polls  He is exceeding expectations and feels comfortable

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

I also find it interesting since death threats have been mentioned by numerous people on here that not a single one of them have expressed any sort of concern for the fact that Kavanaugh and his family have been receiving them as well. But I guess since he's the accused he doesn't deserve anyone's concern, nor do his wife and kids, amirite?

Why are you such a combative, mean-spirited person in every thread you post in? Not a single Democrat here has expressed any support for the death threats you're talking about (this is the first I'm hearing of them) and obviously we all strongly condemn them. You know this, but as usual you'd rather get a "sick burn" in on the libs than have a sincere, good-faith discussion.

There are a whole lot of Atlas Leftists I can say that about, from personal experience.  You know them, too, you know their works, and remained silent.

fhatgn has a valid point here.  Where is the acknowledgment of the death threats against Judge Kavanaugh?  Did he bring them on himself?  If the allegation is false, then he most certainly did not, in which case, the quesition of who brought them on is begged.

This whole thing has been mishandled by Trump.  This whole thing has been shoved forward without regard to the harm this very debate does to the SCOTUS as an institution.  In and of itself, I consider what has been brought up against Kavanaugh to be enough for a President to pull his nomination.  In a more rational world, the nomination would have been quietly pulled, Kavanaugh and Ford would have gone back to their anonymity, and our public institutions would have been the better for it because the allegation Dr. Ford is making can likely never be proved in a Court of Law.

Instead, this thing has been managed to where people now do have reason to launch false allegations.  At best, it gives people motive to inflate actual circumstances of bad behavior decades ago to the level of an unpunished sex crime.  There are those who would try this, and that will be a disaster when it happens.  But now we are in a lose-lose situation.  If Kavanaugh is confirmed, millions of Americans will believe there is a rapist on the Court.  If Kavanaugh is rejected, he will forever be a martyr by some, setting back the legitimate cause of sexual assault victims because there is little possibility of public consensus on this issue at this point.

I think America is better off if we say "No" to Kavanaugh at this point, but we have been harmed as a nation by the way this is turning out.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fox News Congressional reporter:

https://twitter.com/ChadPergram/status/1044375229651451904

https://twitter.com/ChadPergram/status/1044376034181877761

[IceSpear]

How come Dean Heller is not undecided?

Shouldn't he be pretending that he's a moderate right now?

Democrats aren’t going to vote for him regardless of what he does, but he desperately needs the R base to come out for him.

Yeah, Heller has long since quadrupled down on embracing Trump, turning out the base, and hoping by some miracle that it is somehow enough for him to squeak by.