Justice Kavanaugh Confirmation Hearing *DISCUSSION AND LIVE COMMENTARY*

[IceSpear]

There's two other factors here though. One is Trump in his head insane level of narcissism. He sees this as a personal challenge to he himself, just like any other political opposition. It is beyond him and his emotional range to quickly withdraw Kavanaugh or accept Cavanaugh's withdrawal as it would be played out for the cameras, nominate and ideologically similar judge who gets confirmed by a large margin. No, it's about him and Kavanagh stepping down would in Trump's mind make himself look weak, a loser, Etc. This is what you get when you have someone with severe narcissist personality disorder as a president.

The second Point plays into the first, and that's timing. At this point it would be essentially impossible 4 hearings on a new nominee to be held prior to the Senate recessing to go home and campaign. Everyone suspects of course that Republicans will try to push through any replacement for Cavanaugh threw a lame duck session, but the Optics are bad in already what is turning out to be a ugly looking year midterm for the GOP. And if the very real risk comes to pass that something comes up on that nominee like it did with Cavanaugh, the Republicans would almost surely be screwed and not be able to present a third nominee before the new Senate, quite likely democratic-controlled, takes office in January.

Ergo, between the combination of Trumps megalomania and tight time squeeze of getting someone nominated before the Democrats potentially take control of the Senate, the GOP is largely forced to double down on Kavanaugh.

I think a lot of you guys are also underestimating how strongly the Republican base feels about this. Republicans, conservatives, rural white male Deplorables, etc. are absolutely outraged at the way Kavanaugh is being treated. They see this as a witch hunt against all white men, and now see the Democratic Party as even more of an anti white male hate group than they did before. Obviously most of these people were never voting Democratic to begin with, but it's not a smart idea to capitulate to "radical Feminazis" and spit in the face of your base a month before an election. Especially a midterm election which is mostly about base turnout. I also think Dems might have overplayed their hand a bit here, at least in regards to their deep red state Senate incumbents. Kavanaugh is moderately unpopular in most polls, so it's a winning issue for them overall, but if he's at -10 or so nationally, that means he's probably popular in North Dakota and West Virginia. So it could very well hurt Heitkamp and Manchin more than help them.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I just don't get what McConnell's doing.
Kavanaugh is becoming politically toxic, and could easily be replaced by Barrett.
Instead he's roaring ahead, in an attempt to muscle the nominee onto the court.

Either he's playing 12th dimensional chess, beyond the scope of my feeble mind, or he's losing his touch. If Cruz makes a gaffe during the testimony, or during voting, and actually puts Texas into play, then McConnell can only blame himself.

He's got less capital to threaten the Red-state Dems with, given how public the Kavanaugh allegations have become, and he's unnecessarily endangering Heller and Cruz by making them vote for a highly controversial nominee.

Not the mention the effect on the House.

Ignoring the questions of how long replacing Kavanaugh would take and whether they'd still have the votes to confirm someone by then, it would be demoralizing.  It would look like the Republicans either admitting they made a mistake in supporting him, or that they aren't loyal their people when they come under fire. 

I don't know why the Republicans are so resistant to this.  Look at what happened with Harriet Miers; after she withdrew, Alito was appointed and unanimously confirmed.  Surely no conservative can be unhappy with how he turned out on the bench.

Uh, Alito's confirmation vote was not unanimous. Check your history book and try again.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wonder if Hardiman can get through a Dem controlled Senate

[Florida Man for Crime]

"I alone can fix it"

https://mobile.twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1044290392575873024

This is perfect (politically for Dems, though of course horrible substantively). If McConnell tries to pull the nomination, hopefully Trump refuses to nominate anyone else out of spite. Even if they give Kavanaugh a vote and he fails, Trump can simply refuse to withdraw the nomination and say, "they should vote again and confirm him, he was treated so unfairly ~blahdeblahblahblah~"

[GeorgiaModerate]

I just don't get what McConnell's doing.
Kavanaugh is becoming politically toxic, and could easily be replaced by Barrett.
Instead he's roaring ahead, in an attempt to muscle the nominee onto the court.

Either he's playing 12th dimensional chess, beyond the scope of my feeble mind, or he's losing his touch. If Cruz makes a gaffe during the testimony, or during voting, and actually puts Texas into play, then McConnell can only blame himself.

He's got less capital to threaten the Red-state Dems with, given how public the Kavanaugh allegations have become, and he's unnecessarily endangering Heller and Cruz by making them vote for a highly controversial nominee.

Not the mention the effect on the House.

Ignoring the questions of how long replacing Kavanaugh would take and whether they'd still have the votes to confirm someone by then, it would be demoralizing.  It would look like the Republicans either admitting they made a mistake in supporting him, or that they aren't loyal their people when they come under fire. 

I don't know why the Republicans are so resistant to this.  Look at what happened with Harriet Miers; after she withdrew, Alito was appointed and unanimously confirmed.  Surely no conservative can be unhappy with how he turned out on the bench.

Uh, Alito's confirmation vote was not unanimous. Check your history book and try again.

Yeah, my bad.  I'll fix the OP.

[junior chįmp]

The ole I was a virgin excuse

https://mobile.twitter.com/grynbaum/status/1044342064450859009

[IceSpear]

The ole I was a virgin excuse

https://mobile.twitter.com/grynbaum/status/1044342064450859009

What does being a virgin have to do with any of the things he was accused of? What a bizarre statement.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

I just don't get what McConnell's doing.
Kavanaugh is becoming politically toxic, and could easily be replaced by Barrett.
Instead he's roaring ahead, in an attempt to muscle the nominee onto the court.

Either he's playing 12th dimensional chess, beyond the scope of my feeble mind, or he's losing his touch. If Cruz makes a gaffe during the testimony, or during voting, and actually puts Texas into play, then McConnell can only blame himself.

He's got less capital to threaten the Red-state Dems with, given how public the Kavanaugh allegations have become, and he's unnecessarily endangering Heller and Cruz by making them vote for a highly controversial nominee.

Not the mention the effect on the House.

Ignoring the questions of how long replacing Kavanaugh would take and whether they'd still have the votes to confirm someone by then, it would be demoralizing.  It would look like the Republicans either admitting they made a mistake in supporting him, or that they aren't loyal their people when they come under fire. 

I don't know why the Republicans are so resistant to this.  Look at what happened with Harriet Miers; after she withdrew, Alito was appointed and unanimously confirmed.  Surely no conservative can be unhappy with how he turned out on the bench.

Uh, Alito's confirmation vote was not unanimous. Check your history book and try again.

Plus Harriet Miers was not pulled a month before a national election, she was pulled earlier in the process, and conservative Senators were tepid at best in their support for her nomination.

[Beet]

The ole I was a virgin excuse

https://mobile.twitter.com/grynbaum/status/1044342064450859009

What does being a virgin have to do with any of the things he was accused of? What a bizarre statement.

Well, the idea is if he was a virgin, he probably wasn't too aggressive with the ladies.

[new_patomic]

So this is where we're at.

A supreme court nominee telling Fox about his virginity.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Brett Kavanaugh is a perfectly chaste Catholic school boy. I have no doubt. If he's gone, 50% chance we get a Prot, who you never can trust with issues of the flesh.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The ole I was a virgin excuse

https://mobile.twitter.com/grynbaum/status/1044342064450859009

What does being a virgin have to do with any of the things he was accused of? What a bizarre statement.

Well, the idea is if he was a virgin, he probably wasn't too aggressive with the ladies.

Naw, it just meant that they got away.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I just don't get what McConnell's doing.
Kavanaugh is becoming politically toxic, and could easily be replaced by Barrett.
Instead he's roaring ahead, in an attempt to muscle the nominee onto the court.

Either he's playing 12th dimensional chess, beyond the scope of my feeble mind, or he's losing his touch. If Cruz makes a gaffe during the testimony, or during voting, and actually puts Texas into play, then McConnell can only blame himself.

He's got less capital to threaten the Red-state Dems with, given how public the Kavanaugh allegations have become, and he's unnecessarily endangering Heller and Cruz by making them vote for a highly controversial nominee.

Not the mention the effect on the House.

Ignoring the questions of how long replacing Kavanaugh would take and whether they'd still have the votes to confirm someone by then, it would be demoralizing.  It would look like the Republicans either admitting they made a mistake in supporting him, or that they aren't loyal their people when they come under fire. 

I don't know why the Republicans are so resistant to this.  Look at what happened with Harriet Miers; after she withdrew, Alito was appointed and unanimously confirmed.  Surely no conservative can be unhappy with how he turned out on the bench.

Uh, Alito's confirmation vote was not unanimous. Check your history book and try again.

Plus Harriet Miers was not pulled a month before a national election, she was pulled earlier in the process, and conservative Senators were tepid at best in their support for her nomination.

My point is that Kavanaugh is not the only conservative judge around, and he could be replaced with an equally conservative candidate to get the same long-term result but without (more) controversy.  There's still time to get another nominee through, if they move expeditiously.  So it just seems to me like that would be the politically smart thing to do.

[Beet]

I just don't get what McConnell's doing.
Kavanaugh is becoming politically toxic, and could easily be replaced by Barrett.
Instead he's roaring ahead, in an attempt to muscle the nominee onto the court.

Either he's playing 12th dimensional chess, beyond the scope of my feeble mind, or he's losing his touch. If Cruz makes a gaffe during the testimony, or during voting, and actually puts Texas into play, then McConnell can only blame himself.

He's got less capital to threaten the Red-state Dems with, given how public the Kavanaugh allegations have become, and he's unnecessarily endangering Heller and Cruz by making them vote for a highly controversial nominee.

Not the mention the effect on the House.

Ignoring the questions of how long replacing Kavanaugh would take and whether they'd still have the votes to confirm someone by then, it would be demoralizing.  It would look like the Republicans either admitting they made a mistake in supporting him, or that they aren't loyal their people when they come under fire. 

I don't know why the Republicans are so resistant to this.  Look at what happened with Harriet Miers; after she withdrew, Alito was appointed and unanimously confirmed.  Surely no conservative can be unhappy with how he turned out on the bench.

Uh, Alito's confirmation vote was not unanimous. Check your history book and try again.

Plus Harriet Miers was not pulled a month before a national election, she was pulled earlier in the process, and conservative Senators were tepid at best in their support for her nomination.

My point is that Kavanaugh is not the only conservative judge around, and he could be replaced with an equally conservative candidate to get the same long-term result but without (more) controversy.  There's still time to get another nominee through, if they move expeditiously.  So it just seems to me like that would be the politically smart thing to do.

The problem is that if Kavanaugh goes down, any man can go down. Any man can be taken down at any time by any vengeful woman who claims they were assaulted in kindergarten 50 years ago. It'll be like the Salem Witch trial writ large.

[IceSpear]

I just don't get what McConnell's doing.
Kavanaugh is becoming politically toxic, and could easily be replaced by Barrett.
Instead he's roaring ahead, in an attempt to muscle the nominee onto the court.

Either he's playing 12th dimensional chess, beyond the scope of my feeble mind, or he's losing his touch. If Cruz makes a gaffe during the testimony, or during voting, and actually puts Texas into play, then McConnell can only blame himself.

He's got less capital to threaten the Red-state Dems with, given how public the Kavanaugh allegations have become, and he's unnecessarily endangering Heller and Cruz by making them vote for a highly controversial nominee.

Not the mention the effect on the House.

Ignoring the questions of how long replacing Kavanaugh would take and whether they'd still have the votes to confirm someone by then, it would be demoralizing.  It would look like the Republicans either admitting they made a mistake in supporting him, or that they aren't loyal their people when they come under fire. 

I don't know why the Republicans are so resistant to this.  Look at what happened with Harriet Miers; after she withdrew, Alito was appointed and unanimously confirmed.  Surely no conservative can be unhappy with how he turned out on the bench.

Uh, Alito's confirmation vote was not unanimous. Check your history book and try again.

Plus Harriet Miers was not pulled a month before a national election, she was pulled earlier in the process, and conservative Senators were tepid at best in their support for her nomination.

My point is that Kavanaugh is not the only conservative judge around, and he could be replaced with an equally conservative candidate to get the same long-term result but without (more) controversy.  There's still time to get another nominee through, if they move expeditiously.  So it just seems to me like that would be the politically smart thing to do.

The problem is that if Kavanaugh goes down, any man can go down. Any man can be taken down at any time by any vengeful woman who claims they were assaulted in kindergarten 50 years ago. It'll be like the Salem Witch trial writ large.

Yep. This is the mindset of Trump, many other Republican politicians, and most importantly the Republican base. This is beyond just Kavanaugh now for them.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kavanaugh and Gorsuch aren't the best justices and the GoP hasn't put up a mainstream nominee since Souter. They need to pick a conservative moderate.

[7,052,770]

I just don't get what McConnell's doing.
Kavanaugh is becoming politically toxic, and could easily be replaced by Barrett.
Instead he's roaring ahead, in an attempt to muscle the nominee onto the court.

Either he's playing 12th dimensional chess, beyond the scope of my feeble mind, or he's losing his touch. If Cruz makes a gaffe during the testimony, or during voting, and actually puts Texas into play, then McConnell can only blame himself.

He's got less capital to threaten the Red-state Dems with, given how public the Kavanaugh allegations have become, and he's unnecessarily endangering Heller and Cruz by making them vote for a highly controversial nominee.

Not the mention the effect on the House.

Ignoring the questions of how long replacing Kavanaugh would take and whether they'd still have the votes to confirm someone by then, it would be demoralizing.  It would look like the Republicans either admitting they made a mistake in supporting him, or that they aren't loyal their people when they come under fire. 

I don't know why the Republicans are so resistant to this.  Look at what happened with Harriet Miers; after she withdrew, Alito was appointed and unanimously confirmed.  Surely no conservative can be unhappy with how he turned out on the bench.

Uh, Alito's confirmation vote was not unanimous. Check your history book and try again.

Plus Harriet Miers was not pulled a month before a national election, she was pulled earlier in the process, and conservative Senators were tepid at best in their support for her nomination.

My point is that Kavanaugh is not the only conservative judge around, and he could be replaced with an equally conservative candidate to get the same long-term result but without (more) controversy.  There's still time to get another nominee through, if they move expeditiously.  So it just seems to me like that would be the politically smart thing to do.

The problem is that if Kavanaugh goes down, any man can go down. Any man can be taken down at any time by any vengeful woman who claims they were assaulted in kindergarten 50 years ago. It'll be like the Salem Witch trial writ large.

Just the guilty ones. For example if I were the nominee, there would be no credible stories about me. Presumably same for you, and many other potential Trump nominees, including Gorsuch.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Among the 6 Senators who didn't show up to work Today: Flake, Corker, and Johnson. All 3 are in the group that forced the scheduling of Ford's hearing. Talk about doing all you can to avoid questions from reporters about the new allegations.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Why couldn't Trump just nominate Hardiman? Personally, I could live with that pick, at least if this chart is instructive at all:



Although I'm taking a big leap here and assuming that he would not be too atrocious with campaign finance, voting rights and gerrymandering.

If he's anything like Kennedy, he would disappoint more often than he does not. But that disappointment wouldn't be consistent like it would with Kavanaugh, Barrett, Kethledge, or nearly other nominee. So yeah, Hardiman is probably the best nominee we could expect out of Trump and wouldn't alter the makeup of a Kennedy-less court too much.

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

I just don't get what McConnell's doing.
Kavanaugh is becoming politically toxic, and could easily be replaced by Barrett.
Instead he's roaring ahead, in an attempt to muscle the nominee onto the court.

Either he's playing 12th dimensional chess, beyond the scope of my feeble mind, or he's losing his touch. If Cruz makes a gaffe during the testimony, or during voting, and actually puts Texas into play, then McConnell can only blame himself.

He's got less capital to threaten the Red-state Dems with, given how public the Kavanaugh allegations have become, and he's unnecessarily endangering Heller and Cruz by making them vote for a highly controversial nominee.

Not the mention the effect on the House.

Ignoring the questions of how long replacing Kavanaugh would take and whether they'd still have the votes to confirm someone by then, it would be demoralizing.  It would look like the Republicans either admitting they made a mistake in supporting him, or that they aren't loyal their people when they come under fire. 

I don't know why the Republicans are so resistant to this.  Look at what happened with Harriet Miers; after she withdrew, Alito was appointed and unanimously confirmed.  Surely no conservative can be unhappy with how he turned out on the bench.

Uh, Alito's confirmation vote was not unanimous. Check your history book and try again.

Plus Harriet Miers was not pulled a month before a national election, she was pulled earlier in the process, and conservative Senators were tepid at best in their support for her nomination.

My point is that Kavanaugh is not the only conservative judge around, and he could be replaced with an equally conservative candidate to get the same long-term result but without (more) controversy.  There's still time to get another nominee through, if they move expeditiously.  So it just seems to me like that would be the politically smart thing to do.

The problem is that if Kavanaugh goes down, any man can go down. Any man can be taken down at any time by any vengeful woman who claims they were assaulted in kindergarten 50 years ago. It'll be like the Salem Witch trial writ large.

Just the guilty ones. For example if I were the nominee, there would be no credible stories about me. Presumably same for you, and many other potential Trump nominees, including Gorsuch.

No one made such an allegation against Gorsuch.

There are reasons to believe that Dr. Ford is telling the truth.  That being said, the allegations against Kavanaugh are not proven, and I'm not sure that they will be proven beyond the level of reasonable suspicion when this is all over.  That's enough for someone to deny a Supreme Court nomination, but that should NOT be a standard for a criminal prosecution, or even losing a law license.

It is UNFAIR to Kavanaugh to treat him as if he has been proven guilty at a standard used in a criminal trial, or even a civil trial; that is most definitely not the case.

[Slander and/or Libel]

It’s gotta be Kavanaugh because he’s a hack, not an ideologue.

[fhtagn]

I just don't get what McConnell's doing.
Kavanaugh is becoming politically toxic, and could easily be replaced by Barrett.
Instead he's roaring ahead, in an attempt to muscle the nominee onto the court.

Either he's playing 12th dimensional chess, beyond the scope of my feeble mind, or he's losing his touch. If Cruz makes a gaffe during the testimony, or during voting, and actually puts Texas into play, then McConnell can only blame himself.

He's got less capital to threaten the Red-state Dems with, given how public the Kavanaugh allegations have become, and he's unnecessarily endangering Heller and Cruz by making them vote for a highly controversial nominee.

Not the mention the effect on the House.

Ignoring the questions of how long replacing Kavanaugh would take and whether they'd still have the votes to confirm someone by then, it would be demoralizing.  It would look like the Republicans either admitting they made a mistake in supporting him, or that they aren't loyal their people when they come under fire.  

I don't know why the Republicans are so resistant to this.  Look at what happened with Harriet Miers; after she withdrew, Alito was appointed and unanimously confirmed.  Surely no conservative can be unhappy with how he turned out on the bench.

Uh, Alito's confirmation vote was not unanimous. Check your history book and try again.

Plus Harriet Miers was not pulled a month before a national election, she was pulled earlier in the process, and conservative Senators were tepid at best in their support for her nomination.

My point is that Kavanaugh is not the only conservative judge around, and he could be replaced with an equally conservative candidate to get the same long-term result but without (more) controversy.  There's still time to get another nominee through, if they move expeditiously.  So it just seems to me like that would be the politically smart thing to do.

The problem is that if Kavanaugh goes down, any man can go down. Any man can be taken down at any time by any vengeful woman who claims they were assaulted in kindergarten 50 years ago. It'll be like the Salem Witch trial writ large.

Just the guilty ones. For example if I were the nominee, there would be no credible stories about me. Presumably same for you, and many other potential Trump nominees, including Gorsuch.

You can only say that because you aren't currently in that position, not because it actually means you aren't guilty of those actions. 
(I should note that I'm not accusing you of it, but pointing out a major flaw in your argument)

Based on the commentary provided in this thread and several others, all it takes is an accusation and some biased sources claiming "yeah I heard about it once" for someone to be immediately labeled as guilty. As of this time, there has been no credible evidence that Kavanaugh actually did the things he's being accused of, or even anything that puts him and the named witnesses in the same place at the same time as the accusers mentioned. If Dems really want to take sexual assault seriously, it should include not labeling someone a rapist until there's something credible that actually links them to the crime. Otherwise it's just a one-sided joke.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It’s gotta be Kavanaugh because he’s a hack, not an ideologue.

The difference between the two terms is immaterial, and that's not why Kavanaugh's still in the running. It's because withdrawing him, or any trump nominee, would be giving into the opposition.

[Slander and/or Libel]

It’s gotta be Kavanaugh because he’s a hack, not an ideologue.

The difference between the two terms is immaterial, and that's not why Kavanaugh's still in the running. It's because withdrawing him, or any trump nominee, would be giving into the opposition.

The difference is certainly not immaterial. And I’m engaging in a discussion about a point that was brought up. Kavanaugh isn’t just a replacement level conservative ideologue Justice. His history shows he’ll go to bat for GOP priorities whatever they are, whether or not they contradict a position he claimed to earnestly hold in the past.

[Yank2133]

I just don't get what McConnell's doing.
Kavanaugh is becoming politically toxic, and could easily be replaced by Barrett.
Instead he's roaring ahead, in an attempt to muscle the nominee onto the court.

Either he's playing 12th dimensional chess, beyond the scope of my feeble mind, or he's losing his touch. If Cruz makes a gaffe during the testimony, or during voting, and actually puts Texas into play, then McConnell can only blame himself.

He's got less capital to threaten the Red-state Dems with, given how public the Kavanaugh allegations have become, and he's unnecessarily endangering Heller and Cruz by making them vote for a highly controversial nominee.

Not the mention the effect on the House.

Ignoring the questions of how long replacing Kavanaugh would take and whether they'd still have the votes to confirm someone by then, it would be demoralizing.  It would look like the Republicans either admitting they made a mistake in supporting him, or that they aren't loyal their people when they come under fire.  

I don't know why the Republicans are so resistant to this.  Look at what happened with Harriet Miers; after she withdrew, Alito was appointed and unanimously easily confirmed.  Surely no conservative can be unhappy with how he turned out on the bench.

GOP establishment had a lot more sway with the base in 2005 then they do in 2018. Back then, they could drop Myers and face no backlash from the base. Today, you drop Kavanaugh, you will be seen as a sellout.