FL-GOV 2018: Ron DeSantis vs. Andrew Gillum: Who wins?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Gillum wins by 2-4 points.

[Dereich]

I have trouble believing Gillum is really up 5 points.  There were a lot of undecideds in the poll that gave that result, and Florida's GOP is far more organized and in far better shape than Florida's Democratic Party.

That's a Horse Race Analysis statement, not an endorsement.  I haven't decided who I will vote for.  DeSantis is bad because he promises to be just like Rick Scott.  Gillum is bad because while he advocates some things I approve of (expanding Medicaid, some criminal justice proposals), he also advocates some things I consider horrible ($15/hour minimum wage, pro-gun control, elimination of McKay Scholarships which enables my son to go to a safe school, in favor of a teachers' union agenda).  In this situation where neither candidate is particularly attractive to me, I'm going to have to do a lot of homework to decide which candidate is better for me and my family.

I suppose the question becomes if you think the GOP controlled House would block Gillum initiatives you may disagree with

Yes. I mean, theoretically, if we had maybe some Watergate-level blowout, Democrats might be able to flip the FL House, but nothing indicates that kind of rout. Florida hasn't had a Republican backlash like the Midwest either, so there is no reason to believe Democrats would flip scores of marginal Trump districts that are needed to win that chamber.

Voting for Gillum is really about redistricting, having a say in policy (but not driving the discussion), and providing the other half of Florida with a governor who more vigorously pursues their interests as opposed to the Republican Party's, which has been calling the shots for 20 years now. It's nice to have some balance in what is essentially a state between tossup and Leans R.

This seems like something that could appeal to Fuzzy, even if he has some qualms with Gillum.

It should be pointed out that this would only apply to federal redistricting. Redistricting for the state legislature is passed as a joint resolution without any input from the governor.

[Virginiá]

It should be pointed out that this would only apply to federal redistricting. Redistricting for the state legislature is passed as a joint resolution without any input from the governor.

Yea, but it implicitly affects legislative redistricting in the sense that Gillum can contest Scott's (or rather the Lt Gov at that point) ability to make those midnight appointments to the state Supreme Court that are probably unconstitutional. The only way to enforce the fair districts amendments from 2010 is to have a state Supreme Court that respects them. It's also about having a Governor who will use every tool at their disposal to block GOP schemes for the 2020 election, whether it's trying to pass new voting restrictions, or whether the registration deadline needs to be extended due to a hurricane, or whatever. The Republican early voting cuts from 2012 is an example of what Democrats want to avoid going into 2020.

If DeSantis wins, then the state Supreme Court goes 100% Republican-appointees for sure. That makes it more likely that the legislature can get some sort of gerrymanders through, imo.

[KingSweden]

I have trouble believing Gillum is really up 5 points.  There were a lot of undecideds in the poll that gave that result, and Florida's GOP is far more organized and in far better shape than Florida's Democratic Party.

That's a Horse Race Analysis statement, not an endorsement.  I haven't decided who I will vote for.  DeSantis is bad because he promises to be just like Rick Scott.  Gillum is bad because while he advocates some things I approve of (expanding Medicaid, some criminal justice proposals), he also advocates some things I consider horrible ($15/hour minimum wage, pro-gun control, elimination of McKay Scholarships which enables my son to go to a safe school, in favor of a teachers' union agenda).  In this situation where neither candidate is particularly attractive to me, I'm going to have to do a lot of homework to decide which candidate is better for me and my family.

I suppose the question becomes if you think the GOP controlled House would block Gillum initiatives you may disagree with

The McKay Scholarship issue is the big one.  It allows for him to be educated in an alternative setting due to his ADHD.  There are classes for him in the public school in a similar setting, but, to be honest, these classes are unsafe.  He was bullied daily when he went to public school, and the school was either unwilling or unable to stop it.

Gillum hasn't said he's against it.  He wishes to end charter schools, essentially to curry favor with teacher unions.  The second aspect has me torn, because while I resent the fact that much GOP "education policy" is little more than a war against the teacher unions, the teacher unions don't have students' best interest at heart, either, and differentiated approaches to education are needed to address Florida's staggering social problems.

Have you contacted the Gillum campaign to ask about McKay Scholarships? I can certainly empathize with why that would be a program near to your heart.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

This hurricane is going to drown Gillum if he handles it as poorly as the last one.

[Rookie Yinzer]

This hurricane is going to drown Gillum if he handles it as poorly as the last one.

Says the guy who follows the idiot who dismissed the death of thousands of Americans in Puerto Rico as fake news.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

This hurricane is going to drown Gillum if he handles it as poorly as the last one.

Says the guy who follows the idiot who dismissed the death of thousands of Americans in Puerto Rico as fake news.

What do I know? I’ve only lived through Gillum’s Tallahassee:

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

This hurricane is going to drown Gillum if he handles it as poorly as the last one.

Says the guy who follows the idiot who dismissed the death of thousands of Americans in Puerto Rico as fake news.

What do I know? I’ve only lived through Gillum’s Tallahassee:

I find the spokespeople on DeSantis's "Gillum Failed Us" hurricane ads to be scripted and unconvincing, but it's a narrative that has gained SOME traction, and it won't be good if Tallahassee is nailed right at election time with Hurricane Michael.

Gillum is in a no-win situation.  If he stays home, he'll get flak and if he campaigns, he'll get more flak.  DeSantis has actually lucked out with the weather situation here, believe it or not.

[Duke of York]

This hurricane is going to drown Gillum if he handles it as poorly as the last one.

Says the guy who follows the idiot who dismissed the death of thousands of Americans in Puerto Rico as fake news.

What do I know? I’ve only lived through Gillum’s Tallahassee:

I find the spokespeople on DeSantis's "Gillum Failed Us" hurricane ads to be scripted and unconvincing, but it's a narrative that has gained SOME traction, and it won't be good if Tallahassee is nailed right at election time with Hurricane Michael.

Gillum is in a no-win situation.  If he stays home, he'll get flak and if he campaigns, he'll get more flak.  DeSantis has actually lucked out with the weather situation here, believe it or not.

Why would someone give him flak for staying home? Someone like that is a horrible person.  Hes still the mayor and has a duty to take care of his city first. If anything if he does a good job in the aftermath it could help him

[Zaybay]

This hurricane is going to drown Gillum if he handles it as poorly as the last one.

Says the guy who follows the idiot who dismissed the death of thousands of Americans in Puerto Rico as fake news.

What do I know? I’ve only lived through Gillum’s Tallahassee:

I find the spokespeople on DeSantis's "Gillum Failed Us" hurricane ads to be scripted and unconvincing, but it's a narrative that has gained SOME traction, and it won't be good if Tallahassee is nailed right at election time with Hurricane Michael.

Gillum is in a no-win situation.  If he stays home, he'll get flak and if he campaigns, he'll get more flak.  DeSantis has actually lucked out with the weather situation here, believe it or not.

I have to agree with Duke of York here, how would staying in his town and not campaigning be a negative? If he botches it up, yeah sure, but I dont see how saying he didnt leave his city during a crisis is a bad look.

[Duke of York]

This hurricane is going to drown Gillum if he handles it as poorly as the last one.

Says the guy who follows the idiot who dismissed the death of thousands of Americans in Puerto Rico as fake news.

What do I know? I’ve only lived through Gillum’s Tallahassee:

What would you have liked him to do? Wave a magic wand and fix all the damage instantly or made the city hurricane proof? Hurricanes cause damage you cant prevent it.

[ajc0918]

This hurricane is going to drown Gillum if he handles it as poorly as the last one.

Says the guy who follows the idiot who dismissed the death of thousands of Americans in Puerto Rico as fake news.

What do I know? I’ve only lived through Gillum’s Tallahassee:

Clearly not much since you've been wrong, with remarkable consistency, about this race and many others.

[UWS]

This hurricane is going to drown Gillum if he handles it as poorly as the last one.

Says the guy who follows the idiot who dismissed the death of thousands of Americans in Puerto Rico as fake news.

What do I know? I’ve only lived through Gillum’s Tallahassee:

I find the spokespeople on DeSantis's "Gillum Failed Us" hurricane ads to be scripted and unconvincing, but it's a narrative that has gained SOME traction, and it won't be good if Tallahassee is nailed right at election time with Hurricane Michael.

Gillum is in a no-win situation.  If he stays home, he'll get flak and if he campaigns, he'll get more flak.  DeSantis has actually lucked out with the weather situation here, believe it or not.

And in addition, during his time as Mayor of Tallahassee, Gillum presided over the highest crime in Florida.

Even NBC fact checked it as Mostly True.

http://www.nbc-2.com/story/39251047/ron-desantis-says-tallahassee-mayor-andrew-gillum-presided-over-the-highest-crime-in-florida

[Person Man]

The storm is already well politicized and it hasn't even hit yet. Good God.

[Duke of York]

This hurricane is going to drown Gillum if he handles it as poorly as the last one.

Says the guy who follows the idiot who dismissed the death of thousands of Americans in Puerto Rico as fake news.

What do I know? I’ve only lived through Gillum’s Tallahassee:

I find the spokespeople on DeSantis's "Gillum Failed Us" hurricane ads to be scripted and unconvincing, but it's a narrative that has gained SOME traction, and it won't be good if Tallahassee is nailed right at election time with Hurricane Michael.

Gillum is in a no-win situation.  If he stays home, he'll get flak and if he campaigns, he'll get more flak.  DeSantis has actually lucked out with the weather situation here, believe it or not.

I have to agree with Duke of York here, how would staying in his town and not campaigning be a negative? If he botches it up, yeah sure, but I dont see how saying he didnt leave his city during a crisis is a bad look.

Rick Scott suspended his campaign for Senate as well. De Santis should do the same

[UWS]

This hurricane is going to drown Gillum if he handles it as poorly as the last one.

Says the guy who follows the idiot who dismissed the death of thousands of Americans in Puerto Rico as fake news.

What do I know? I’ve only lived through Gillum’s Tallahassee:

I find the spokespeople on DeSantis's "Gillum Failed Us" hurricane ads to be scripted and unconvincing, but it's a narrative that has gained SOME traction, and it won't be good if Tallahassee is nailed right at election time with Hurricane Michael.

Gillum is in a no-win situation. If he stays home, he'll get flak and if he campaigns, he'll get more flak.  DeSantis has actually lucked out with the weather situation here, believe it or not.

I have to agree with Duke of York here, how would staying in his town and not campaigning be a negative? If he botches it up, yeah sure, but I dont see how saying he didnt leave his city during a crisis is a bad look.

Rick Scott suspended his campaign for Senate as well. De Santis should do the same

Because of Hurricane Michael that is approaching, I guess?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

This hurricane is going to drown Gillum if he handles it as poorly as the last one.

Says the guy who follows the idiot who dismissed the death of thousands of Americans in Puerto Rico as fake news.

What do I know? I’ve only lived through Gillum’s Tallahassee:

Clearly not much since you've been wrong, with remarkable consistency, about this race and many others.

A few bad early polls does not equate to being “wrong.”

[Zaybay]

Starting to see a resurgence of: "Gillum must do X or agree with Y to succeed, DeSantis doesnt have to do anything to win". Apparently, Gillum cant stay in his town or campaign in FL, both are bad situations for him, but for DeSantis, its okay. If the past months have proved anything, its that DeSantis' actions have just as much impact on the race as Gillum's.

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

Starting to see a resurgence of: "Gillum must do X or agree with Y to succeed, DeSantis doesnt have to do anything to win". Apparently, Gillum cant stay in his town or campaign in FL, both are bad situations for him, but for DeSantis, its okay. If the past months have proved anything, its that DeSantis' actions have just as much impact on the race as Gillum's.

I will say this:  Given the way the storm is heading, it sets both Gillum and Scott up to be "leaders".  DeSantis is now in a position where he's not abandoning anyone by campaigning, but he doesn't have anything to do at this point to appear to be a "leader". 

In a subtle way, DeSantis is taking on the image of an "empty suit".  It's as if comparisons are being set up betwen Gillum and SCOTT (the executives) and between DeSantis and NELSON (legislators whose records aren't terrible, but are what they are).  It's kind of unintended, but it's there.  Scott was under water in ratings until his Hurricane Leadership Image boosted him, while Nelson (and DeSantis) are guys for whom it's hard to point to their accomplishments.  (Most people forget when Nelson was the Space Center's Congressional lifeline; that was over 30 years ago now.)

[Virginiá]

'A mess': Florida's online voter-registration system panned

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2018/10/09/a-mess-floridas-online-voter-registration-system-panned-641953

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What is really irritating to me about this is that if a state is going to have some stupid, arbitrary deadline that isn't even needed thanks to technology, then they ought to run a 100% perfect system in the weeks leading up to the registration deadline. People don't tend to really tune into an election until the final month or so, which is why having deadlines at all is so frustratingly stupid. But to have such a poor system in place that it crashes or is otherwise unusable in the final day(s)/week(s) is completely unacceptable.

The only unsurprising thing here is that there is resistance to extend the deadline despite server problems essentially robbing people of their last day or two to register.


-

Also:

Amid amped up scrutiny, North Carolina investor targeted by feds became top Florida GOP donor

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2018/10/09/amid-amped-up-scrutiny-north-carolina-investor-targeted-by-feds-became-top-florida-gop-donor-639295

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Definitely not trying to buy off politicians and regulators! Absolutely not!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Starting to see a resurgence of: "Gillum must do X or agree with Y to succeed, DeSantis doesnt have to do anything to win". Apparently, Gillum cant stay in his town or campaign in FL, both are bad situations for him, but for DeSantis, its okay. If the past months have proved anything, its that DeSantis' actions have just as much impact on the race as Gillum's.

It's like that for a lot of Democrats in this country. There is a double standard that in this country that always seems to benefit the Republicans the most.

[Figueira]

This hurricane is going to drown Gillum if he handles it as poorly as the last one.

Says the guy who follows the idiot who dismissed the death of thousands of Americans in Puerto Rico as fake news.

What do I know? I’ve only lived through Gillum’s Tallahassee:

I find the spokespeople on DeSantis's "Gillum Failed Us" hurricane ads to be scripted and unconvincing, but it's a narrative that has gained SOME traction, and it won't be good if Tallahassee is nailed right at election time with Hurricane Michael.

Gillum is in a no-win situation.  If he stays home, he'll get flak and if he campaigns, he'll get more flak.  DeSantis has actually lucked out with the weather situation here, believe it or not.

And in addition, during his time as Mayor of Tallahassee, Gillum presided over the highest crime in Florida.

Even NBC fact checked it as Mostly True.

http://www.nbc-2.com/story/39251047/ron-desantis-says-tallahassee-mayor-andrew-gillum-presided-over-the-highest-crime-in-florida

That article mentions that the crime rate dropped between 2016 and 2017.

[Person Man]

This hurricane is going to drown Gillum if he handles it as poorly as the last one.

Says the guy who follows the idiot who dismissed the death of thousands of Americans in Puerto Rico as fake news.

What do I know? I’ve only lived through Gillum’s Tallahassee:

I find the spokespeople on DeSantis's "Gillum Failed Us" hurricane ads to be scripted and unconvincing, but it's a narrative that has gained SOME traction, and it won't be good if Tallahassee is nailed right at election time with Hurricane Michael.

Gillum is in a no-win situation.  If he stays home, he'll get flak and if he campaigns, he'll get more flak.  DeSantis has actually lucked out with the weather situation here, believe it or not.

And in addition, during his time as Mayor of Tallahassee, Gillum presided over the highest crime in Florida.

Even NBC fact checked it as Mostly True.

http://www.nbc-2.com/story/39251047/ron-desantis-says-tallahassee-mayor-andrew-gillum-presided-over-the-highest-crime-in-florida

That article mentions that the crime rate dropped between 2016 and 2017.

#FakeNews

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

This hurricane is going to drown Gillum if he handles it as poorly as the last one.

Says the guy who follows the idiot who dismissed the death of thousands of Americans in Puerto Rico as fake news.

What do I know? I’ve only lived through Gillum’s Tallahassee:

I find the spokespeople on DeSantis's "Gillum Failed Us" hurricane ads to be scripted and unconvincing, but it's a narrative that has gained SOME traction, and it won't be good if Tallahassee is nailed right at election time with Hurricane Michael.

Gillum is in a no-win situation.  If he stays home, he'll get flak and if he campaigns, he'll get more flak.  DeSantis has actually lucked out with the weather situation here, believe it or not.

And in addition, during his time as Mayor of Tallahassee, Gillum presided over the highest crime in Florida.

Even NBC fact checked it as Mostly True.

http://www.nbc-2.com/story/39251047/ron-desantis-says-tallahassee-mayor-andrew-gillum-presided-over-the-highest-crime-in-florida

That article mentions that the crime rate dropped between 2016 and 2017.

#FakeNews

Me getting robbed at gunpoint on Richmond Street wasn’t fake news. I know that.

[Person Man]

This hurricane is going to drown Gillum if he handles it as poorly as the last one.

Says the guy who follows the idiot who dismissed the death of thousands of Americans in Puerto Rico as fake news.

What do I know? I’ve only lived through Gillum’s Tallahassee:

I find the spokespeople on DeSantis's "Gillum Failed Us" hurricane ads to be scripted and unconvincing, but it's a narrative that has gained SOME traction, and it won't be good if Tallahassee is nailed right at election time with Hurricane Michael.

Gillum is in a no-win situation.  If he stays home, he'll get flak and if he campaigns, he'll get more flak.  DeSantis has actually lucked out with the weather situation here, believe it or not.

And in addition, during his time as Mayor of Tallahassee, Gillum presided over the highest crime in Florida.

Even NBC fact checked it as Mostly True.

http://www.nbc-2.com/story/39251047/ron-desantis-says-tallahassee-mayor-andrew-gillum-presided-over-the-highest-crime-in-florida

That article mentions that the crime rate dropped between 2016 and 2017.

#FakeNews

Me getting robbed at gunpoint on Richmond Street wasn’t fake news. I know that.

I would empathize with you if this was the first time you tried to use the victim card.