AZ-SEN 2: Kyl be back

[Calthrina950]

Great Choice!

This. He seems to be a non-controversial, average senator. Good that he appointed someone familiar with the office.

I agree. Ducey made a very good pick with this choice. Kyl has experience, is inoffensive, and is a generic Republican, as you noted. The Republican base, I should say (judging from their comments on the websites that I frequent), appears to be very happy with this choice, as they most certainly didn't want Cindy McCain.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Seems like a generic, not extremely controversial R. However, D's will be certainly targeting this in 2020, he isn't gonna run for re-election.

[pbrower2a]

I quite literally have no opinion on this. Atlas AZ will have a senator with some seniority in the senate. which could help us occasionally. Kyl could not be more different than McCain, a literal partisan hack.

Senators don't get any seniority on Return. Kyl has the same level of seniority right now as Sinema or McSally: 0.

He will have more seniority than either  if he enters the Senate earlier. He will have the least seniority until one of the new Senators of the Class of 2020  is inaugurated.

[Zaybay]

NYT rumor is that dems are whispering with Grant Woods to be run as the nominee in 2020. Both ties the seat to McCains legacy, and has some plus's as a former moderate Republican. Has to get past Gallego and Stanton though.

yeah, Woods aint winning the primary, especially since the seat will be ripe for the taking.

[brucejoel99]

Kyl has only committed to serving through the end of the 115th Congress' 2nd congressional session (i.e. the end of the 115th Congress on Jan. 3, 2019), not even through the 2020 special election... no way he runs, even if he does end up electing to stay in the seat through 2020.

As for who runs, the only candidate I'm certain will run is Kelli Ward... but she will not be the winner of the election; this will be a Democratic pick-up.

[MAINEiac4434]

Wait, so Kyl’s only serving until the end of the current Congress, and then he’s resigning, and then Douchey (or Garcia) pick someone else to serve in the 116th congress?

This is bizarre, I love it.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

An AZ Sen replacement would have to be someone of the same party as the outgoing senator (although in theory they could appoint a RINO who immediately switches parties.)

[Free Bird]

Why is every Democrat here so casually certain this will be a D pickup in 2020? It won't be a cakewalk R hold, but it won't be an easy D pickup, either.

[Zaybay]

Why is every Democrat here so casually certain this will be a D pickup in 2020? It won't be a cakewalk R hold, but it won't be an easy D pickup, either.

Mostly no incumbency, AZ's D trend, and the fact that the AZGOP is imploding

[MAINEiac4434]

Why is every Democrat here so casually certain this will be a D pickup in 2020? It won't be a cakewalk R hold, but it won't be an easy D pickup, either.

Because Kelli Ward will almost certainly be the Republican nominee.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Democrats should wish for Kyl to run in 2020. The guy's last campaign was 12 years ago.
Imagine the contrast between him and a young, energetic candidate.  

[Free Bird]

Why is every Democrat here so casually certain this will be a D pickup in 2020? It won't be a cakewalk R hold, but it won't be an easy D pickup, either.

Mostly no incumbency, AZ's D trend, and the fact that the AZGOP is imploding

It's definitely trending D (even if Rs have still had a net gain of voters over Ds since the election), but it's not so dramatic as to make it an easy Dem pickup. I think we'll have to see what the margins are for Senate and Governor this year to get a good marker.

[libertpaulian]

Why is every Democrat here so casually certain this will be a D pickup in 2020? It won't be a cakewalk R hold, but it won't be an easy D pickup, either.

Mostly no incumbency, AZ's D trend, and the fact that the AZGOP is imploding

Presidential election year is the most important thing.

[Free Bird]

Why is every Democrat here so casually certain this will be a D pickup in 2020? It won't be a cakewalk R hold, but it won't be an easy D pickup, either.

Because Kelli Ward will almost certainly be the Republican nominee.

We were saying that about this year before McSally jumped in. You don't think Schweikert, Lesko, and Ducey (and probably others) are already starting to maneuver? You don't think they have a "Stop Kelli Ward from Being Nominated Ever" folder on standby LOL?

[mencken]

Jon Kyl would make the most sense from an impartial standpoint (elected to the Senate multiple times, not going to run for reelection, generally inoffensive) which means it won't be him. Same goes for Matt Salmon. Murphy's Law dictates that it will be Cindy McCain.

Surprisingly Ducey did the right thing, although the devil is in the details. Having Kyl step down at the end of the year (aka "ensure that McSally gets a Senate seat at all costs") is the second stupidest thing Ducey could do (other than appointing himself to the seat). Expect results similar to Minnesota 1978.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Kyl only serving until January 3, 2019 should be extra motivation for Sinema and Garcia voters. GET EVERY DEMOCRAT TO THE POLLS ON NOVEMBER 6TH!

[Zaybay]

Wait a second.

Kyl is only serving till the end of 2018. This means that, when his term is up, the 2018 election would have occurred.

If Garcia wins the governor seat, and the legislature is either contested or D, then, theoretically, the Ds could just snatch the seat, by either rewriting the rules, or getting one of their own registered as a Republican.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/SmartPolitics/status/1037029682359816192

[brucejoel99]

Kyl only serving until January 3, 2019 should be extra motivation for Sinema and Garcia voters. GET EVERY DEMOCRAT TO THE POLLS ON NOVEMBER 6TH!

To be clear, even if Garcia wins, he'll still be bound by AZ law to appoint a Republican if Kyl steps down come Jan. 3rd (of course, if Garcia wins, Kyl prob stays through the 2020 special election)... granted, Garcia would prob appoint a moderate's moderate like Grant Woods but he'd still have to appoint a Republican lol

Plus, if Garcia wins, you can bet every dollar you have that Kyl (if he chooses to step down now) would do so during Ducey's lame-duck period so that Ducey can appoint a Republican who's more right-wing than somebody Garcia would appoint.

[junior chįmp]

https://twitter.com/SmartPolitics/status/1037029682359816192

Big if true

[Oryxslayer]

Wait a second.

Kyl is only serving till the end of 2018. This means that, when his term is up, the 2018 election would have occurred.

If Garcia wins the governor seat, and the legislature is either contested or D, then, theoretically, the Ds could just snatch the seat, by either rewriting the rules, or getting one of their own registered as a Republican.

Grant Woods is still a Republican for example, but dems are recruiting him to run in 2020 apparently. If Garcia wins, the there is a nice pick if he wishes to 'steal' a seat.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Kyl only serving until January 3, 2019 should be extra motivation for Sinema and Garcia voters. GET EVERY DEMOCRAT TO THE POLLS ON NOVEMBER 6TH!

To be clear, even if Garcia wins, he'll still be bound by AZ law to appoint a Republican if Kyl steps down come Jan. 3rd (of course, if Garcia wins, Kyl prob stays through the 2020 special election)... granted, Garcia would prob appoint a moderate's moderate like Grant Woods but he'd still have to appoint a Republican lol

Plus, if Garcia wins, you can bet every dollar you have that Kyl (if he chooses to step down now) would do so during Ducey's lame-duck period so that Ducey can appoint a Republican who's more right-wing than somebody Garcia would appoint.

I know all of that. However, a moderate Republican would be way more preferable (in the shorr term).

[windjammer]

Hes declared he wont, and I would say either McSally or one of the R reps. But the D would likely win.

In the case Mcsally would lose this year, it would depend on the margin of her defeat.

[MAINEiac4434]

Am I the only one seeing a potential problem with Ducey nominating McSally if she's defeated this year? Voters will have just rejected her - and then she's going to go to the Senate anyway because a bunch of elites decided it?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Am I the only one seeing a potential problem with Ducey nominating McSally if she's defeated this year? Voters will have just rejected her - and then she's going to go to the Senate anyway because a bunch of elites decided it?

Yeah, that'd be pretty gross