AZ-SEN 2: Kyl be back

[libertpaulian]

There's one thing we know for sure: 2020 is going to be a major sh**tshow in Arizona.  This Senate special election, the Presidential election, and the possibility of putting marijuana back on the ballot...Arizona will probably be the most-watched state that year!

[libertpaulian]

Gallego or Paul Penzone seem like the best options for 2020. Stanton seems boring af.

Gallego seems like the logical choice.  Boosts Latino turnout, revs up the base, and turns Arizona into Colorado 2.0.

[pppolitics]

Ducey should be a d-bag and appoint himself to the seat.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If McSally was appointed, what would happen if she then won the election for Flake's seat as well?

well, she would be unable to do so. If she were appointed, she would either decline it, giving up a free seat, or give Kelli the R nomination.

McSally would then switch seats, and even if Ducey was defeated, he could still quickly replace her before leaving office.

[brucejoel99]

Kelli Ward would be such a slap in the face to McCain. Same with Ducey. Cindy and Meghan are the right choices as caretakers until 2020. I think Meghan McCain is the likely replacement though, didn't she change her residency just recently to AZ?
But if the party makes the list, it's hard to see Meghan McCain on it.

TBH, I dont see McCain's legacy being respected. The R party of AZ has to make a list of candidates, and Doug Ducey has to choose one. Ducey was saying in may that he would appoint himself, and Im pretty sure that position has not changed.

The only AZ requirement is that Ducey's appointee must be of the same political party as that of the vacating Senator; Ducey doesn't have to make an appointment by selecting it from a list of prospective appointees submitted by the party.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

So, do I understand it correctly? The interim senator will hold office till 2020, and his successor will be in office till 2022?

The interim senator will also be appointed by Governor Ducey without legislative approval?

[SCNCmod]

My guess is McCain had some communication with Ducey regarding who he wanted to be his replacement.  And in Arizona- the replacement has to be of the same political party... so who do you think McCain would have wanted? (Which Arizona republicans was he close to?)

[Free Bird]

Meghan gets extremely angry during discussions on the View, so I doubt she has the temperament to be a Senator even just as a caretaker.

You do know which half of her genes gave her that, right? LMAO

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Meghan gets extremely angry during discussions on the View, so I doubt she has the temperament to be a Senator even just as a caretaker.

You do know which half of her genes gave her that, right? LMAO

John McCain was certainly the least robotic Presidential loser we've had in a while.

[ursulahx]

What this thread, and others I've seen elsewhere, is telling me is that no one really knows who is the most likely to fill the seat.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2018/08/24/john-mccain-senate-seat-replacement/954586001/ Here's a likely list from AZ Central with confirmation that Ducey has ruled out appointing himself.

[Blair]

I thought it was a done deal that Cindy McCain was going to be the caretaker Senator.

Yes; whilst not a done deal, it's by far the most likely, and least likely to piss anyone off. (and I assume she wouldn't run for re-election in 2020, but who knows)

What this thread, and others I've seen elsewhere, is telling me is that no one really knows who is the most likely to fill the seat.

Reminds of me of the speculation after Franken quit; when everyone assumed Swanson would be appointed, or would run. Unless you work as a staffer in Arizona, or D.C (or have good friends who do) you're not going to know all the various feuds, plots and shenanigans that accompany appointments.

Ducey is an unpopular governor facing a tough and expensive campaign in a difficult climate, and a defeat this year would be an embarrassing end to his political career. Appointing himself gives him two years to create a new political profile and get himself into better shape as a candidate. It would be this year's equivalent of Pence dropping his reelection bid to join the ticket.

In the short term, McCain's seat being filled by a party-line Republican greatly increases the chances of Kavanaugh's successful confirmation.

He's not facing that tough a race is he? I thought he was still favoured to win; he just actually had to campaign this time. It's not similar to Pence; it's much more like Cheney recommending himself VP after the 2000 search.

But Ducey said he won't appoint himself, so it's all academic.

Cindy McCain or Martha McSally would be the appropriate choices.

Appointing McSally would just be too confusing, and too much hassle when you've got a handful of other people who could do the job. Besides she'd not be able to campaign as much if she's having to go to D.C to vote for Judge X, and she'd still have to give up one of the seats assuming that she lost.

The AZ GOP are going to do everything to stop Kelli Ward, or a Democrat from getting the Senate Seat.

[Mycool]

My money is on Cindy. Ducey really can’t risk alienating any wing of the party when he has a real race in November. Cindy would be seen as a consensus pick, respecting legacy and tradition (widow’s succession).

[Skye]

I looked it up; no sources anywhere regarding Ducey appointing himself, it would also make no sense given that he is a favorite to win reelection anyways. I think zaybay is using the same "source" that told him Hogan is trailing in md

Never have I said that Hogan was trailing, I dont say random falsehoods, unlike you.

And, while he was planning to appoint himself in May, I have found out that in July that he said he would not. I dont know if he will change his position, but it seems that now it will either be a McCain, or someone like McSally.

Hogan, who is down in his own internals, BTW, has been pumping nonstop negative ads at Jealous about his ideas, which is one of the stupidest mistakes I have ever seen a pol do.

lol.

Anyways, my guess is Cindy? I dunno. Seems like a reasonable choice to me.

[Jeppe]

I predicted Cindy Hyde-Smith as Thad Cochran’s appointed successor, and I was right. I’m gonna predict another Cindy this time too. Meghan is just too controversial and Cindy wouldn’t run for re-election, allowing an open primary in 2020 for the seat, as Ducey wouldn’t want to alienate any of the big shots in the AZ GOP.

[here2view]

Meghan gets extremely angry during discussions on the View, so I doubt she has the temperament to be a Senator even just as a caretaker.

As opposed to the generally level-headed discussion that takes place on the view? Lol

[Pollster]

A reminder to everybody here that Cindy McCain is pro-choice

[KingSweden]

My money is on Cindy. Ducey really can’t risk alienating any wing of the party when he has a real race in November. Cindy would be seen as a consensus pick, respecting legacy and tradition (widow’s succession).

Agreed.

[America needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Doug Ducey would demotivate the Republican base if he picked Cindy McCain.

[Alabama_Indy10]

My money is on Cindy. Ducey really can’t risk alienating any wing of the party when he has a real race in November. Cindy would be seen as a consensus pick, respecting legacy and tradition (widow’s succession).

Agreed.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

It'll be Cindy, and then Garcia or Stanton will win in 2020.

[Jeppe]

A reminder to everybody here that Cindy McCain is pro-choice

Yeah, if Cindy is appointed, there's a good chance Kavanaugh loses his confirmation battle, as Murkowski also appears to be very uncomfortable with voting for him.

[Zaybay]

I looked it up; no sources anywhere regarding Ducey appointing himself, it would also make no sense given that he is a favorite to win reelection anyways. I think zaybay is using the same "source" that told him Hogan is trailing in md

Never have I said that Hogan was trailing, I dont say random falsehoods, unlike you.

And, while he was planning to appoint himself in May, I have found out that in July that he said he would not. I dont know if he will change his position, but it seems that now it will either be a McCain, or someone like McSally.

Hogan, who is down in his own internals, BTW, has been pumping nonstop negative ads at Jealous about his ideas, which is one of the stupidest mistakes I have ever seen a pol do.

lol.

Anyways, my guess is Cindy? I dunno. Seems like a reasonable choice to me.

It is a rather stupid decision, and I actually explain later why. And, in July, when my friend got the internals(he is an R who works for Hogan's campaign, went to school together in MA), he did show me the top bar, which gave Jealous a lead of 45/42. I stated the truth, at the time, he was losing in his internals, and now, from the last poll I was shown, around August 15th, Hogan was up, 46/44.

And to your guess of Cindy, its definitely possible, and it would be the best choice, but its likely she would be a bench warmer, and she could be seen as too moderate. I think there was a list leaked a while ago of who was on the list, and Cindy was on, but not her daughter.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What this thread, and others I've seen elsewhere, is telling me is that no one really knows who is the most likely to fill the seat.

[Jeppe]

A reminder to everybody here that Cindy McCain is pro-choice

Yeah, if Cindy is appointed, there's a good chance Kavanaugh loses his confirmation battle, as Murkowski also appears to be very uncomfortable with voting for him.

I haven't heard that anywhere.

https://twitter.com/steventdennis/status/1032743437110530049?s=21