MD-Jealous Internal: Hogan +9

[Ebsy]

Conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang.

Hogan (GOP): 49
Jealous (Dem) 40

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lol

[IceSpear]

Why release this? It's quite a crappy result for Jealous.

[Zaybay]

that was a while ago, almost a month.

July 10th to 14th

[wesmoorenerd]

Likely R at best for Jealous. He's really not the right candidate to take down Hogan.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ben Jealous is running a pretty bad campaign and just said to reporter are you fing kidding me when they asked him if he's a socialist at a press conference.


https://www.google.com/amp/www.baltimoresun.com/entertainment/tv/z-on-tv-blog/bs-fe-zontv-ben-jealous-bad-media-20180808-story,amp.html

[Zaybay]

Ben Jealous is running a pretty bad campaign and just said to reporter are you fing kidding me when they asked him if he's a socialist at a press conference.


https://www.google.com/amp/www.baltimoresun.com/entertainment/tv/z-on-tv-blog/bs-fe-zontv-ben-jealous-bad-media-20180808-story,amp.html

your misquoting, he said that hes not an F-ing Socialist, not at the reporter. And I would argue hes running a decent campaign, and Hogan is running a bad one

But Atlas looks at his approvals and concludes its safe R. Its not like popular Ds and Rs have lost reelection before. /s

[Pandaguineapig]

Ben Jealous is running a pretty bad campaign and just said to reporter are you fing kidding me when they asked him if he's a socialist at a press conference.


https://www.google.com/amp/www.baltimoresun.com/entertainment/tv/z-on-tv-blog/bs-fe-zontv-ben-jealous-bad-media-20180808-story,amp.html

your misquoting, he said that hes not an F-ing Socialist, not at the reporter. And I would argue hes running a decent campaign, and Hogan is running a bad one

But Atlas looks at his approvals and concludes its safe R. Its not like popular Ds and Rs have lost reelection before. /s

If you seriously think that Jealous has been running a good campaign, while Hogan a poor one, you have just unlocked levels of hackery that shouldn't even be possible

[Zaybay]

Ben Jealous is running a pretty bad campaign and just said to reporter are you fing kidding me when they asked him if he's a socialist at a press conference.


https://www.google.com/amp/www.baltimoresun.com/entertainment/tv/z-on-tv-blog/bs-fe-zontv-ben-jealous-bad-media-20180808-story,amp.html

your misquoting, he said that hes not an F-ing Socialist, not at the reporter. And I would argue hes running a decent campaign, and Hogan is running a bad one

But Atlas looks at his approvals and concludes its safe R. Its not like popular Ds and Rs have lost reelection before. /s

If you seriously think that Jealous has been running a good campaign, while Hogan a poor one, you have just unlocked levels of hackery that shouldn't even be possible

Jealous is doing everything he needs to do, hes campaigning hard, hes running ads about himself, and he has decent fundraising.

Hogan, who is down in his own internals, BTW, has been pumping nonstop negative ads at Jealous about his ideas, which is one of the stupidest mistakes I have ever seen a pol do.

If you are in a hostile state, like Tester in MT, Baker in MA, and so on, the worst thing you can do is highlight an issue of your opponent, and attack it. This is likely to solidify the opponent's base, and increase their name rec.

 The smart move is to air positive ads about yourself, and to never really acknowledge the opponent. This softens the enemy base, and draws more undecided voters to your side.

Tester has never aired a single ad about Matt, and has talked how he has sponsored many bills that Trump has, Baker has done the same thing, as has every other single vulnerable incumbent who knows what they are doing.

The only one not doing this is Heller, and Hogan, and Heller is not the company that any R incumbent would prefer.

Other candidates that went all out negative include, Rick Scott 2010 and 2014, Marsha Blackburn, Hillary Clinton 2016, Martha Coakley 2010 and 2014, and so on. All under-preformed or lost due to the fact that they ran mostly negative campaigns, solidifying their opponents support, and increasing their name rec.

[MT Treasurer]

It definitely takes talent to lose a statewide race in Maryland in a year like this. Pathetic numbers for Jealous, but while Democrats seem to be blowing this race big time I still think consider this a Tossup (though I might change my prediction of a Jealous to win to a Hogan win if more polls like this are released).

[MT Treasurer]

If you are in a hostile state, like Tester in MT, Baker in MA, and so on, the worst thing you can do is highlight an issue of your opponent, and attack it. This is likely to solidify the opponent's base, and increase their name rec.

 The smart move is to air positive ads about yourself, and to never really acknowledge the opponent. This softens the enemy base, and draws more undecided voters to your side.

Tester has never aired a single ad about Matt, and has talked how he has sponsored many bills that Trump has, Baker has done the same thing, as has every other single vulnerable incumbent who knows what they are doing.

This is verifiably false. Tester has been attacking Rosendale since the day he won the GOP primary, he always tries to define his opponents early.

http://www.kpax.com/story/38554868/tester-launches-first-attack-ads-against-rosendale-how-do-claims-hold-up

[Pandaguineapig]

Ben Jealous is running a pretty bad campaign and just said to reporter are you fing kidding me when they asked him if he's a socialist at a press conference.


https://www.google.com/amp/www.baltimoresun.com/entertainment/tv/z-on-tv-blog/bs-fe-zontv-ben-jealous-bad-media-20180808-story,amp.html

your misquoting, he said that hes not an F-ing Socialist, not at the reporter. And I would argue hes running a decent campaign, and Hogan is running a bad one

But Atlas looks at his approvals and concludes its safe R. Its not like popular Ds and Rs have lost reelection before. /s

If you seriously think that Jealous has been running a good campaign, while Hogan a poor one, you have just unlocked levels of hackery that shouldn't even be possible

Jealous is doing everything he needs to do, hes campaigning hard, hes running ads about himself, and he has decent fundraising.

Hogan, who is down in his own internals, BTW, has been pumping nonstop negative ads at Jealous about his ideas, which is one of the stupidest mistakes I have ever seen a pol do.

If you are in a hostile state, like Tester in MT, Baker in MA, and so on, the worst thing you can do is highlight an issue of your opponent, and attack it. This is likely to solidify the opponent's base, and increase their name rec.

 The smart move is to air positive ads about yourself, and to never really acknowledge the opponent. This softens the enemy base, and draws more undecided voters to your side.

Tester has never aired a single ad about Matt, and has talked how he has sponsored many bills that Trump has, Baker has done the same thing, as has every other single vulnerable incumbent who knows what they are doing.

The only one not doing this is Heller, and Hogan, and Heller is not the company that any R incumbent would prefer.

Other candidates that went all out negative include, Rick Scott 2010 and 2014, Marsha Blackburn, Hillary Clinton 2016, Martha Coakley 2010 and 2014, and so on. All under-preformed or lost due to the fact that they ran mostly negative campaigns, solidifying their opponents support, and increasing their name rec.

What evidence is there that Hogan is down in his own internals? Every single poll has shown Hogan with a large lead and even the best poll Jealous can put oit shows him down 9, this was before his multiple outbursts at reporters

[IceSpear]

The only one not doing this is Heller, and Hogan, and Heller is not the company that any R incumbent would prefer.

Why not? Most candidates would be honored (and relieved!) to be in the company of an unbeatable titan.

[Pandaguineapig]

My money is on the democrats triaging the little marxist in september, to focus on more important races

[IceSpear]

If you are in a hostile state, like Tester in MT, Baker in MA, and so on, the worst thing you can do is highlight an issue of your opponent, and attack it. This is likely to solidify the opponent's base, and increase their name rec.

 The smart move is to air positive ads about yourself, and to never really acknowledge the opponent. This softens the enemy base, and draws more undecided voters to your side.

Tester has never aired a single ad about Matt, and has talked how he has sponsored many bills that Trump has, Baker has done the same thing, as has every other single vulnerable incumbent who knows what they are doing.

This is verifiably false. Tester has been attacking Rosendale since the day he won the GOP primary, he always tries to define his opponents early.

http://www.kpax.com/story/38554868/tester-launches-first-attack-ads-against-rosendale-how-do-claims-hold-up

imo we should've run maryland matt against hogan instead imo

[Politician]

I fail to see how this and New Hampshire are more likely to flip than Kansas or Oklahoma, especially if Kobach wins the primary.

[MT Treasurer]

imo we should've run maryland matt against hogan instead imo

I feel like Rosendale is such a terrible candidate, just reminding Marylanders that he is from there would sink Hogan. IMO imo ImHo iMhO.

[Zaybay]

If you are in a hostile state, like Tester in MT, Baker in MA, and so on, the worst thing you can do is highlight an issue of your opponent, and attack it. This is likely to solidify the opponent's base, and increase their name rec.

 The smart move is to air positive ads about yourself, and to never really acknowledge the opponent. This softens the enemy base, and draws more undecided voters to your side.

Tester has never aired a single ad about Matt, and has talked how he has sponsored many bills that Trump has, Baker has done the same thing, as has every other single vulnerable incumbent who knows what they are doing.

This is verifiably false. Tester has been attacking Rosendale since the day he won the GOP primary, he always tries to define his opponents early.

http://www.kpax.com/story/38554868/tester-launches-first-attack-ads-against-rosendale-how-do-claims-hold-up

Is this the only one, or are there more? The ad was also released in early July, and Tester's campaign is more focused on himself, which is my overall point, that running an overall negative campaign doesnt work in hostile states.

[Zaybay]

Ben Jealous is running a pretty bad campaign and just said to reporter are you fing kidding me when they asked him if he's a socialist at a press conference.


https://www.google.com/amp/www.baltimoresun.com/entertainment/tv/z-on-tv-blog/bs-fe-zontv-ben-jealous-bad-media-20180808-story,amp.html

your misquoting, he said that hes not an F-ing Socialist, not at the reporter. And I would argue hes running a decent campaign, and Hogan is running a bad one

But Atlas looks at his approvals and concludes its safe R. Its not like popular Ds and Rs have lost reelection before. /s

If you seriously think that Jealous has been running a good campaign, while Hogan a poor one, you have just unlocked levels of hackery that shouldn't even be possible

Jealous is doing everything he needs to do, hes campaigning hard, hes running ads about himself, and he has decent fundraising.

Hogan, who is down in his own internals, BTW, has been pumping nonstop negative ads at Jealous about his ideas, which is one of the stupidest mistakes I have ever seen a pol do.

If you are in a hostile state, like Tester in MT, Baker in MA, and so on, the worst thing you can do is highlight an issue of your opponent, and attack it. This is likely to solidify the opponent's base, and increase their name rec.

 The smart move is to air positive ads about yourself, and to never really acknowledge the opponent. This softens the enemy base, and draws more undecided voters to your side.

Tester has never aired a single ad about Matt, and has talked how he has sponsored many bills that Trump has, Baker has done the same thing, as has every other single vulnerable incumbent who knows what they are doing.

The only one not doing this is Heller, and Hogan, and Heller is not the company that any R incumbent would prefer.

Other candidates that went all out negative include, Rick Scott 2010 and 2014, Marsha Blackburn, Hillary Clinton 2016, Martha Coakley 2010 and 2014, and so on. All under-preformed or lost due to the fact that they ran mostly negative campaigns, solidifying their opponents support, and increasing their name rec.

What evidence is there that Hogan is down in his own internals? Every single poll has shown Hogan with a large lead and even the best poll Jealous can put oit shows him down 9, this was before his multiple outbursts at reporters

I know someone deep in the Hogan campaign, which is why I know this. It also makes sense, why would he be airing ads that are negative if he was up in polling?

And, I would just like to say, that most polling so far has either had him with 51% or lower, and this support is rather tenuous. I would rather wait for the end of August for polling from MD, VT, MA, NH, because support for these guys is rather soft. Same for TN, with Bredesen, but hes been in the high 50s, which is why I think that he may be slightly favored.

Look at any NH race, and you will see that the race changes drastically in the last months.

[IceSpear]

I fail to see how this and New Hampshire are more likely to flip than Kansas or Oklahoma, especially if Kobach wins the primary.

Because Kobach won't have reverse megacoattails and Oklahoma will still be safe R.

[Politician]

I fail to see how this and New Hampshire are more likely to flip than Kansas or Oklahoma, especially if Kobach wins the primary.

Because Kobach won't have reverse megacoattails and Oklahoma will still be safe R.

Fallin and her 11% approval rating say hi.

[Skye]

Hogan, who is down in his own internals, BTW, has been pumping nonstop negative ads at Jealous about his ideas, which is one of the stupidest mistakes I have ever seen a pol do.
[/quote]

What? This is news to me. Though it would make little sense for Hogan to be losing in his own internals and Jealous losing in his.

But Atlas looks at his approvals and concludes its safe R. Its not like popular Ds and Rs have lost reelection before. /s
[/quote]

Have you read these forums? Most threads that mention Hogan contain people that warn against taking his victory for granted, because it's Maryland after all. Even the predictions map has the race as Lean R.

[IceSpear]

I fail to see how this and New Hampshire are more likely to flip than Kansas or Oklahoma, especially if Kobach wins the primary.

Because Kobach won't have reverse megacoattails and Oklahoma will still be safe R.

Fallin and her 11% approval rating say hi.

Wow, you know Mary Fallin? That's pretty cool. Tell her I said hi back.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Darn it!!!

[PragmaticPopulist]

Ben Jealous is running a pretty bad campaign and just said to reporter are you fing kidding me when they asked him if he's a socialist at a press conference.


https://www.google.com/amp/www.baltimoresun.com/entertainment/tv/z-on-tv-blog/bs-fe-zontv-ben-jealous-bad-media-20180808-story,amp.html

your misquoting, he said that hes not an F-ing Socialist, not at the reporter. And I would argue hes running a decent campaign, and Hogan is running a bad one

But Atlas looks at his approvals and concludes its safe R. Its not like popular Ds and Rs have lost reelection before. /s

If you seriously think that Jealous has been running a good campaign, while Hogan a poor one, you have just unlocked levels of hackery that shouldn't even be possible

Jealous is doing everything he needs to do, hes campaigning hard, hes running ads about himself, and he has decent fundraising.

Hogan, who is down in his own internals, BTW, has been pumping nonstop negative ads at Jealous about his ideas, which is one of the stupidest mistakes I have ever seen a pol do.

If you are in a hostile state, like Tester in MT, Baker in MA, and so on, the worst thing you can do is highlight an issue of your opponent, and attack it. This is likely to solidify the opponent's base, and increase their name rec.

 The smart move is to air positive ads about yourself, and to never really acknowledge the opponent. This softens the enemy base, and draws more undecided voters to your side.

Tester has never aired a single ad about Matt, and has talked how he has sponsored many bills that Trump has, Baker has done the same thing, as has every other single vulnerable incumbent who knows what they are doing.

The only one not doing this is Heller, and Hogan, and Heller is not the company that any R incumbent would prefer.

Other candidates that went all out negative include, Rick Scott 2010 and 2014, Marsha Blackburn, Hillary Clinton 2016, Martha Coakley 2010 and 2014, and so on. All under-preformed or lost due to the fact that they ran mostly negative campaigns, solidifying their opponents support, and increasing their name rec.

What evidence is there that Hogan is down in his own internals? Every single poll has shown Hogan with a large lead and even the best poll Jealous can put oit shows him down 9, this was before his multiple outbursts at reporters

I know someone deep in the Hogan campaign, which is why I know this. It also makes sense, why would he be airing ads that are negative if he was up in polling?

And, I would just like to say, that most polling so far has either had him with 51% or lower, and this support is rather tenuous. I would rather wait for the end of August for polling from MD, VT, MA, NH, because support for these guys is rather soft. Same for TN, with Bredesen, but hes been in the high 50s, which is why I think that he may be slightly favored.

Look at any NH race, and you will see that the race changes drastically in the last months.

I don't know who this source is you have within the Hogan campaign, but I can tell you that I haven't seen any Jealous ads since the primary, and while I've only seen a modest number of Hogan ads, that's probably because Jealous hasn't put any out yet.