Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[KingSweden]

Interesting:

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1059205044199923712

Rubs chin

[GeorgiaModerate]

This gets more and more outrageous:

https://twitter.com/rickhasen/status/1059187255439372288

[QAnonKelly]

Georgians: gun to your head, who wins the SOS race?

Barrow, which with low expectations is the best thing to happen. Kemp unfortunately might have rigged this for himself .  Barrow can unpurge the voters (regardless of who wins gov) to hopefully allow for both Trump and Perdue to lose in two years. He’d also have a say in redistricing.

[SCNCmod]

What the deal with the Trafalgar Poll in GA putting Kemp up  by 12??? I know they are a (R) group.... but what is even the point of bending a poll that badly- is it an (poor) attempt to make it appear Kemp has late momentum or something?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Kemp is such a blatant con artist and liar. Jesus I’ve never wanted a candidate to beat another one as bad I want Stacey to beat him on Tuesday.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kemp is such a blatant con artist and liar. Jesus I’ve never wanted a candidate to beat another one as bad I want Stacey to beat him on Tuesday.

I'm with you.  During the Republican primary I thought Kemp would be the best (or least worst) of them for Georgia.  But his conduct during this campaign has been disqualifying.  He should never hold public office again.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1059234255274950656

[Adam Griffin]

A few charts and pieces of info from Ryan Anderson:

1) Voters by Day:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

2) Early Voters by Age Vs. Outstanding RVs



3) EV Voter Stats, Change from 2014:



4) Most Common Voter Demographics in Early Voting (Hint: It's just White Women ages 62-71)

https://twitter.com/gtryan/status/1059286556282941440

[Inmate Trump]

^ doesn’t look all that great.

Is it just me?

[Adam Griffin]

^ doesn’t look all that great.

Is it just me?

Really, at this point, at least one of two things needs to be the case for a guaranteed good night:

1) White early voters need to be substantially more Democratic than they have been in past cycles
2) Black voters need to storm the polls on Election Day (which would be a shift from past cycles)

If neither of those things happen, then even plurality wins are going to be difficult in most of these races.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Kemp hasn’t released any internals from the highest profile Governor’s race in the country and used his office to put out a last minute smear against the DPG. He’s scared and Abrams is very much still in this thing.

[_]

Alright I've followed this race for a while, and I'm gonna mostly bet on what  RFKFan is saying:  Abrams will either win on EDay or get a plurality close to a majority, and then a runoff.

I feel unusually hopeful about this, I just think that through all the evil and darkness of Kemp's actions, people will see through that and Abrams will pull it off.  :shrug:  We'll see tomorrow.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Attn Hammy:

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1059455304381972481

[Adam Griffin]

DPG Chair Porter is holding a press conference live (right now) with State Elections Board member David Worley, who is lambasting Kemp for his behavior in this "hacking process" and how even the State Elections Board was left in the dark about it.

 

[GP270watch]

Yea pretty much. People like Kemp who abuse their power to launch dubious criminal investigations for partisan gain are the kind of people worth Lock Them Up chants. It would be my hope that Abrams would launch an investigation of his office if she won, but somehow I doubt that would happen.

 The Supreme Court made all this election mucking much easier when they overturned key provisions in the Voting Rights Act. Remember in the eternal wisdom of John Roberts the best way to get over race is to like to get over race, duh.

[Virginiá]

Yea pretty much. People like Kemp who abuse their power to launch dubious criminal investigations for partisan gain are the kind of people worth Lock Them Up chants. It would be my hope that Abrams would launch an investigation of his office if she won, but somehow I doubt that would happen.

 The Supreme Court made all this election mucking much easier when they overturned key provisions in the Voting Rights Act. Remember in the eternal wisdom of John Roberts the best way to get over race is to like to get over race, duh.

As far as I am concerned, Shelby was just Roberts finding a reason to justify something he believed for a long time, like literally going back to his role in the Reagan administration, if not earlier. He was as vehemently against the VRA in the 80s as he was in 2013. I guess racism must have been dead in the 80s too? 

For as 'concerned' as Roberts acts regarding the USSC's legitimacy, he can't seem to stop himself from ruling on cases that give more and more unfair advantages to the wealthy and more importantly, the Republican Party. And yet he has the gall to sit on his perch and try to tell us that the Intelligent Man™ on the street simply won't understand that courts striking down brazen political corruption in the form of rigged district maps is just the court system holding corrupt politicians to account. Awfully convenient for the GOP

[Hammy]

I'll still vote (more out of OCD and not wanting to have gaps in my voting history) but I'm willing to put money that this election is neither free or fair and that Kemp uses his position to ensure he wins outright tomorrow.

The last tiny ounce of faith that this country has anything even remotely resembling free elections (faith that was almost nonexistent before I was even of voting age thanks to 2000, despite my support for Bush) is beyond long gone at this point.

Expecting the same thing to happen in Wisconsin as Georgia as well, which was factored into my predictions.

[Ebsy]

LOCK HIM UP

[Adam Griffin]

A small update for mail ballots received this weekend and already recorded; we should still get an additional update this evening:

According to Georgia Votes, an additional 7,354 valid votes were received and counted over the weekend; the accepted ballot total stands at 2,080,674 votes: 81.57% of total 2014 turnout.

Early vote totals are 121% higher than at this point in 2014.

Even though it's a tiny number of votes, it was enough to shift the race margin by 0.2 points. The votes to be already counted for this weekend were 40% white, 40% black and 20% other. These weekend mail voters were 60% female.

Currently, 20.0% of voters are under the age of 40 (same as Friday). Of these weekend mail votes received, 31% of all voters were under 40 (compared to 32% on Friday). I'm actually surprised the share of returned mail ballots over the weekend was basically identical to their share in the final day of in-person early voting.

Code:

White	1188693	57.1% (-0.1)
Black	629900	30.3% (+0.1)
Latino	31369         1.5% (0.0)
Asian	28875         1.4% (0.0)
Other	201837       9.7% (0.0)

Female	1140500	54.8% (0.0)
Male		880102	42.3% (0.0)
Unknown	60072       2.9%   (0.0)

18-29	189578	9.1%   (0.0)
30-39	227756	10.9%  (0.0)
40-49       325398	15.6%  (-0.1)
50-64       658306	31.6%  (-0.1)
65+         621248      29.9%  (0.0)
Unknown	 58388      2.8%    (0.0)

[QAnonKelly]

The consensus on Political Rewind today was that Barrow is going to win outright and I’m inclined to agree.

[Inmate Trump]

I'll still vote (more out of OCD and not wanting to have gaps in my voting history) but I'm willing to put money that this election is neither free or fair and that Kemp uses his position to ensure he wins outright tomorrow.

The last tiny ounce of faith that this country has anything even remotely resembling free elections (faith that was almost nonexistent before I was even of voting age thanks to 2000, despite my support for Bush) is beyond long gone at this point.

Expecting the same thing to happen in Wisconsin as Georgia as well, which was factored into my predictions.

Yea, I’m trying not to get my hopes up.

I think if Kemp was not SoS, then Abrams would probably win outright tomorrow. At least, it would go to a runoff.  Kemp is the type of politician (a Republican) to abuse his power and ensure his victory.

[BundouYMB]

Georgia needs another dose of reconstruction.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

The consensus on Political Rewind today was that Barrow is going to win outright and I’m inclined to agree.

Awesome! I hope that it's true.

[Hammy]

Georgia needs another dose of reconstruction.

I've long been of the thought that reconstruction should've been permanent.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Here is my analysis of GA Early Vote data using the TargetSmart data, which now seems to be complete. See the Early Voting thread in the Congressional Elections board for more info and similar analysis for other states.

But I am particularly interested in GA, so wanted to post this here to see what you all think. I am unfortunately more pessimistic than I would like to be about GA at the moment for Abrams.

Do you see reason to really disagree with my analysis? how concerned should we be about the #s among Infrequent Voters that Rs seem to be getting?

Code:

GA --- All Voters  ---           44.4% D --- 50.1% R --- 5.5% UNK ---                          D+4.2 Swing in Partisanship Margin from 2014
GA --- Super Voter ---           39.2% D --- 58.2% R --- 2.6% UNK ---                          D+3.4 Swing in Partisanship Margin from 2014 ---              (R+0.4 Change in Swing Since Oct 31)
GA --- Freq. Voter ---           46.7% D --- 48.6% R --- 4.7% UNK ---                          R+0.1 Swing in Partisanship Margin from 2014 ---              (D+0.1 Change in Swing Since Oct 31)
GA --- InFreq. Vt. ---           47.3% D --- 43.0% R --- 9.7% UNK ---                          R+4.2 Swing in Partisanship Margin from 2014 ---              (D+2.3 Change in Swing Since Oct 31)
GA --- Never Voted ---           46.7% D --- 39.5% R --- 13.8% UNK ---                          D+0.2 Swing in Partisanship Margin from 2014 ---              (D+1.7 Change in Swing Since Oct 31)

Georgia is one of the few states where looking closely at the early vote data makes me less optimistic about Dem chances than I otherwise would be.

There *is* a 4.2% overall swing in Partisanship of early voters as compared to 2014. However, unfortunately Georgia is very different from most other states in that the Dem swing has come basically entirely from Super Voters. This should be pretty surprising, since turning out low propensity voters has been the #1 focus of the Abrams campaign. But it looks like a lot of low propensity Republicans are also turning out. That means Dems are at risk of having cannibalized the election day vote in Georgia, and I am pretty worried about the election day vote. I suspect that, and given that African Americans who are eligible to vote were already very well mobilized compared to most other states, and given felon disenfranchisement laws that disproportionately effect African American males, there are just not enough additional low-propensity Dems to secure a victory by itself, unless low propensity White Republicans don't turn out.

One other way to spin things onto the bright side for Dems is that Dems have improved among Infrequent and New voters by D+2.3 and D+1.7 since Oct 31 (compared to the same time in 2014). The optimistic hope would be that this is a forerunner of huge election day turnout among Dem-leaning Infrequent and New voters. But overall, I would be pretty worried that Republicans seem to have done a pretty good job of turning out their Infrequent voters in Georgia, and that too much of the Dem early vote turnout may be cannibalization of Election Day super-voters, as opposed to actually bringing in new voters.

The only other optimistic take I can see for Dems is that maybe a lot of the additional Modeled R partisanship voters are not really Rs any more. If a lot of those are actually former Rs in the North Atlanta suburbs, but they swing en masse to Abrams, then things could go better than the data seems to indicate. If Abrams does win, I think it will be more because of a large swing among white voters in the North Atlanta suburbs towards Dems, as opposed to just Abrams turning out the base.

Regretfully, I am thinking that despite Abrams doing well in the polls, I may need to rate GA-GOV as tilt R for my final prediction, though I have not made a final decision yet. But this is really one state where it will all come down to election day turnout, and most likely also to a runoff.