Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[QAnonKelly]

Wouldn't Obama's 5 point loss (black margins)  + Clinton's 5 point loss (suburbs margins) get you pretty close to a win? This early voting seems like it's fitting into that larger trend.

[libertpaulian]

Wouldn't Obama's 5 point loss (black margins)  + Clinton's 5 point loss (suburbs margins) get you pretty close to a win? This early voting seems like it's fitting into that larger trend.

I think so.  Abrams just has to make sure she isn't getting obliterated in the rurals like Hillary did.  If she can up her margins in the rural regions by a teensy bit, she should be fine.

[QAnonKelly]

Wouldn't Obama's 5 point loss (black margins)  + Clinton's 5 point loss (suburbs margins) get you pretty close to a win? This early voting seems like it's fitting into that larger trend.

I think so.  Abrams just has to make sure she isn't getting obliterated in the rurals like Hillary did.  If she can up her margins in the rural regions by a teensy bit, she should be fine.

Yeah she seems to be going with the Cooper strategy. She's pretty much been living in the rural parts of the state for a while. She's gonna win Cobb and Gwinnett at this point, she just needs to focus on driving up the margins in the black rural counties and cutting her loses in the rural white counties.

[Adam Griffin]

Wouldn't Obama's 5 point loss (black margins)  + Clinton's 5 point loss (suburbs margins) get you pretty close to a win? This early voting seems like it's fitting into that larger trend.

Obama 08 (non-metro ATL) + Clinton 16 (metro ATL) closes half the gap (50.1-47.4).

[Rookie Yinzer]

Wouldn't Obama's 5 point loss (black margins)  + Clinton's 5 point loss (suburbs margins) get you pretty close to a win? This early voting seems like it's fitting into that larger trend.

Obama 08 (non-metro ATL) + Clinton 16 (metro ATL) closes half the gap (50.1-47.4).

I'm assuming Abrams is betting on having abnormally high turnout for midterms among Democratic voters while Republican turnout stays stagnant. Abrams is definitely trying to win counties like Ben Hill, Screven, Meriwether, and Wilkes so if she's winning there one would have to presume she's increasing Hillary's margins in the Metro area and Obama's in rural South Georgia and non-Atlanta major cities.

[QAnonKelly]

Wouldn't Obama's 5 point loss (black margins)  + Clinton's 5 point loss (suburbs margins) get you pretty close to a win? This early voting seems like it's fitting into that larger trend.

Obama 08 (non-metro ATL) + Clinton 16 (metro ATL) closes half the gap (50.1-47.4).

I wonder what Obama’s 08  margins would look like with ‘16 demographics.

[Adam Griffin]

Wouldn't Obama's 5 point loss (black margins)  + Clinton's 5 point loss (suburbs margins) get you pretty close to a win? This early voting seems like it's fitting into that larger trend.

Obama 08 (non-metro ATL) + Clinton 16 (metro ATL) closes half the gap (50.1-47.4).

I wonder what Obama’s 08  margins would look like with ‘16 demographics.

I calculated it pre-2016 and if I recall correctly, Clinton would've won by 3 (51-48; this assumed no significant third party vote obviously) with '08 racial support levels projected onto the likely 2016 election at the time - which, in retrospect, ended up being a tad whiter than I expected. Still, probably a 1-2 point win in actuality.

[Adam Griffin]

According to Georgia Vote, the white share of the vote continues to drop, at the expense of increased non-black, non-white voters. Another phenomenon we've been seeing over the past week or so is an increase in the percentage of ballots that are from those under the age of 65: seven days ago, the 65+ share was 59% (now 57%). Probably not a meaningful enough drop to make much of a difference before in-person voting begins, but still worth a mention.

We're also now approaching 46% of all VBM ballots returned being from voters who did not vote at all in 2014; that includes 26% of white ballots, 58% of black ballots, 74% of Latino ballots and 71% of all other ballots.

An additional 4,557 valid votes were received compared to yesterday; today's accepted ballot total (returned minus rejected) stands at 36,287 votes.

Code:

White	16076	44.3% (-0.2)
Black	15210	41.9% (0.0)
Latino	837           2.3%  (+0.1)
Asian	1088	         3.0%  (+0.1)
Other	3076	         8.5%  (0.0)

Female	21167	58.3% (-0.1)
Male		14546 	40.1% (0.0)
Unknown	574	        1.6%   (0.0)

18-29	 2247	6.2%   (+0.3)
30-39	 1870	5.2%   (+0.2)
40-49	 2736	7.5%   (+0.1)
50-64	 8119	22.4%  (+0.3)
65+         20797        57.3%  (-0.8)
Unknown	  518        1.4%   (0.0)

[Rookie Yinzer]

What percent of the total vote is the early vote/absentee vote supposed to be? If these non-2014 voter numbers can hold up fairly well through early voting (like if the final early votes have non-2014 voters at 30% or more of total votes cast), then we could have a good sense for how good of a night it will be

It was 37% in 2014. The Abrams campaign wants 50% of total ballots to be cast before Election Day which would be on par with presidential years.

[Adam Griffin]

What percent of the total vote is the early vote/absentee vote supposed to be? If these non-2014 voter numbers can hold up fairly well through early voting (like if the final early votes have non-2014 voters at 30% or more of total votes cast), then we could have a good sense for how good of a night it will be

It was 37% in 2014. The Abrams campaign wants 50% of total ballots to be cast before Election Day which would be on par with presidential years.

Just to add to that: VBM ballots specifically were right at 4% of the total electorate; in-person early vote was right at 33%.

As of now, 2018 returned VBMs comprise roughly 1.5% of the total 2014 turnout.


For anybody who's interested, I'm pretty sure I posted the share of the electorate that voted early in the past several elections in a graph a few pages back.

EDIT: here it is

[Adam Griffin]

I'm not sure what percentage of requested mail ballots usually get returned (and I'm not sure where I might find those stats for previous years), but, there were 107k returned mail ballots in 2014. In 2018 and as of right now, 159k ballots have been requested.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I'm not sure what percentage of requested mail ballots usually get returned (and I'm not sure where I might find those stats for previous years), but, there were 107k returned mail ballots in 2014. In 2018 and as of right now, 159k ballots have been requested.

I just got home and saw that the Abrams campaign sent me a reminder to return my ballot. Already turned in but wow at the earnestness of getting each and every vote. She rocks!

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I just got home and saw that the Abrams campaign sent me a reminder to return my ballot. Already turned in but wow at the earnestness of getting each and every vote. She rocks!

It is nice to see that the flyer says:

"Who you vote for is private, but whether or not you vote is public record. We know you're a voter who has already taken the step of requesting a ballot in this election. Please return your ballot so that you can be sure the public records show you voted again this year."

They are using what works. That gives me increased confidence in their ground operation, they are going to turn out voters.

Also it is interesting that she has a "State of Georgia" seal on it. That is the sort of thing that, if Ted Cruz did it, liberals would be in an uproar over. But it may make voters look at it more carefully when they first see it, and then read the rest.

I think Abrams is going to win this thing.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/brian-kemp-is-blocking-53k-applicants-from-registering-to-vote-most-of-them-black

[Adam Griffin]

I'm not sure what percentage of requested mail ballots usually get returned (and I'm not sure where I might find those stats for previous years), but, there were 107k returned mail ballots in 2014. In 2018 and as of right now, 159k ballots have been requested.

I just got home and saw that the Abrams campaign sent me a reminder to return my ballot. Already turned in but wow at the earnestness of getting each and every vote. She rocks!

I got one today too (and I've also returned my ballot already - later than I planned, but alas):

 

[Adam Griffin]

It seems Michael took more of an easterly course than was originally expected; it basically plowed through most of the rural black areas in the Panhandle and SW GA. Albany was hit with 70 MPH+ winds for several hours and even in Macon and Columbus, 50 MPH gusts are still hitting. It's still a Cat 1 passing over Cordele at the moment.

Maybe it's insensitive - but this is a political forum - I wonder if this is going to have any meaningful impact on voting...

[Very Legal & Very Cool]

I hope everyone is okay. Natural disasters are horrifying, we endured enough with the fires in California.

[Adam Griffin]

According to Georgia Vote, an additional 4,142 valid votes were received compared to yesterday; today's accepted ballot total (returned minus rejected) stands at 40,429 votes.

Approximately 8,000 new ballots were requested since yesterday, bringing the total of requested ballots to 167,200.

Code:

White	17881	44.2% (-0.1)
Black	16995	42.0% (+0.1)
Latino	916           2.3%  (0.0)
Asian	1185	         2.9%  (+0.1)
Other	3452	         8.5%  (0.0)

Female	23616	58.4% (+0.1)
Male		16159 	40.0% (-0.1)
Unknown	654	        1.6%   (0.0)

18-29	 2585	6.4%   (+0.2)
30-39	 2104	5.2%   (0.0)
40-49	 3018	7.5%   (0.0)
50-64	 9138	22.6%  (+0.2)
65+         22994        56.9%  (-0.4)
Unknown	  590        1.5%   (+0.1)

[Adam Griffin]

Looking at the 5 big metro counties, the white share of the electorate in VBM seems to be higher there than it is statewide; inversely, the non-white share of VBMs is lower there:

"The Big 5" (Fulton/Dekalb/Clayton/Gwinnett/Cobb) VBM Returns
44.4% White

GA Outside "The Big 5" VBM Returns
44.1% White

And here are the 2017 Census estimates:

"The Big 5" (Fulton/Dekalb/Clayton/Gwinnett/Cobb) 2017 Pop
37.2% White

GA Outside "The Big 5" 2017 Pop
61.5% White

Think about that for a second.

[Wisconsin+17]

Obvious voter suppression against rural whites. Glad to see you reporting this very important information!

[Horus]

Obvious voter suppression against rural whites. Glad to see you reporting this very important information!

Can't wait to see your GA gubernatorial "model" on election night, it just worked so well in Alabama last year!

[Adam Griffin]

Obvious voter suppression against rural whites. Glad to see you reporting this very important information!

Just a reminder that ~80% of VBM ballots at this point 4 years ago were from white voters and nothing since then regarding the VBM procedure has changed!

[Adam Griffin]

[IceSpear]

Obvious voter suppression against rural whites. Glad to see you reporting this very important information!

Can't wait to see your GA gubernatorial "model" on election night, it just worked so well in Alabama last year!

I think that saying about glass houses applies here...

[_]

Looking at the 5 big metro counties, the white share of the electorate in VBM seems to be higher there than it is statewide; inversely, the non-white share of VBMs is lower there:

"The Big 5" (Fulton/Dekalb/Clayton/Gwinnett/Cobb) VBM Returns
44.4% White

GA Outside "The Big 5" VBM Returns
44.1% White

And here are the 2017 Census estimates:

"The Big 5" (Fulton/Dekalb/Clayton/Gwinnett/Cobb) 2017 Pop
37.2% White

GA Outside "The Big 5" 2017 Pop
61.5% White

Think about that for a second.

My only reaction can be a meme, that's absolutely insane.