Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[libertpaulian]

Do y’all think there is a good chance that Abrams could outperform Gillum on election night whether either of them win and/or reach 1st place?

It's possible, but Georgia is much more polarized than Florida is, not to mention Abrams has that 50%+ rule.

[Rookie Yinzer]

There will be more third party voting in Florida. Gillum will win by more but get less of the vote.

Florida:
Gillum 50
DeSantis 44
3rd Party 6

Georgia:
Abrams 51
Kemp 47
3rd Party 2

[Rookie Yinzer]

Kemp just announced a $600 million plan to raise all teacher's pay by $5,000 if he's elected.



Stacey must be up big in his internals. LOL.

[Adam Griffin]

Just got my absentee ballot in the mail today, and will be sending off in the next day or two:

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

My absentee ballot is arriving soon. Problem is I have no idea who or what 80% of the ballot is.

[IceSpear]

My absentee ballot is arriving soon. Problem is I have no idea who or what 80% of the ballot is.

So you're a typical American voter then?

Actually nevermind, the fact that you know what 20% is probably puts you in the top tier of political knowledge.

[Dr. Arch]

Just got my absentee ballot in the mail today, and will be sending off in the next day or two:

FF!

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1045495813873573888

Me and my entire family are shifting from voting early in person to voting absentee. Interested in seeing how these numbers hold up through the next few weeks.

Glorious News! And I see he added the comparisons in the tweet below:

At this time in...
2014: 4,163 ballots; 78% white
2018: 6,585 ballots; 48% white

In the spirit of discussions in the early vote thread, here are some up-to-date figures on returned ballots* by county (as of Thursday). Statewide, there have been 6,933 ballots returned as of last night. Obviously, some counties started mailing these things out before others; the figures definitely don't reflect their respective shares of the electorate. I picked out a list of a dozen or so based on their usual size and then scoured through the sheet for some other counties that had the largest number of ballots returned at this point.

*Returned in this case also includes ballots that were found to be ineligible, are being re-issued or that need further clarification before their ballots are formally counted

62% of returned ballots are in the following counties:

Code:

603	DEKALB
507	COBB
488	GWINNETT
434	RICHMOND
278	CHEROKEE
247	HOUSTON
241	FULTON	
216	FORSYTH
179	HENRY
161	PAULDING
141	COWETA
139	LOWNDES
129	ROCKDALE
114	CHATHAM
108	TROUP
99	COLUMBIA
96	FLOYD
48	WHITFIELD
21	CLARKE
14	CLAYTON
13	MUSCOGEE
4	HALL
0	BIBB

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1045860386598264832



This excites me because I know Abrams planned from the very beginning to launch the biggest VBM and in-person early voting initiative in the state's history. Let's keep it going!

[Adam Griffin]

Updating county figures (compared to yesterday).

Excluding the 2 new counties I've added for today, the original counties from yesterday now comprise 63% of returned ballots (up from 62% yesterday); these counties also comprised 63% of Georgia's 2010 population (probably more like 65% as of today) and 72%/75% of Obama/Clinton's statewide vote bloc:

Code:

788 (603)	DEKALB
623 (488)	GWINNETT
526 (434)	RICHMOND
507 (507)	COBB
495 (241)	FULTON	
347 (278)	CHEROKEE
318 (114)	CHATHAM
298 (247)	HOUSTON
285 (216)	FORSYTH
257 (179)	HENRY
218 (99)	COLUMBIA
215 (161)	PAULDING
189 (141)	COWETA
186 (14)	CLAYTON
176 (139)	LOWNDES
154 (129)	ROCKDALE
137 (108)	TROUP
115 (96)	FLOYD
89            DOUGLAS
56 (48)	WHITFIELD
34 (21)	CLARKE
27 (0)	BIBB
13 (13)	MUSCOGEE
4 (4)	        HALL
0              DOUGHERTY

[Adam Griffin]

Looking at the vote preferences of these two segments of counties in 2016, comparing that to 2014 ballots cast at this time and then comparing to 2018 ballots cast, one would expect this electorate - based solely on geography - would be a 54/46 split in favor of the GOP. However, when factoring in the shift along racial lines, you're looking at a 30-35 point shift in favor of Democrats.

If I had to approximate based on the figures available right now, I'd wager the current mail votes banked are at least 62-38. That's on par with what provisional ballots tend to be, which are otherwise the most Democratic segment of votes.

It's worth noting that we've seen these same kinds of trends in recent elections; either at the onset (in 2016) or at the tail-end (in 2014) of early voting, non-white participation suddenly surges and exceeds all previous EV records by a large amount, but it has historically amounted to little given it was merely a cannibalization of ED votes. We'll see if it's different this time. At minimum, this time, it's a huge shift - many times that of what we've seen in the past.

[QAnonKelly]

Planning to vote the 15th on the first day of early voting

[Adam Griffin]

Just for reference, here are the total numbers/percentages of people who voted early in each election going back to 2002 (note: 2004 & 2010 are approximations based on references I could find; for 2002, all I could find was that "7% of votes cast were early votes"):

[libertpaulian]

Just for reference, here are the total numbers/percentages of people who voted early in each election going back to 2002 (note: 2004 & 2010 are approximations based on references I could find; for 2002, all I could find was that "7% of votes cast were early votes"):

If Abrams can kill it in early voting and get 46-48% on Election Day, I think she'll come out on top.

[Adam Griffin]

Another fun interactive map I just made:

Percentage of Presidential Voters to Vote Early (2016, by County)

[Rookie Yinzer]

Planning to vote the 15th on the first day of early voting

I just voted for our next Governor and the entire Democratic slate today. Felt damn good!

[Yellowhammer]

Planning to vote the 15th on the first day of early voting

I just voted for our next Governor and the entire Democratic slate today. Felt damn good!

You voted for Brian Kemp? I'm kind of surprised.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Planning to vote the 15th on the first day of early voting

I just voted for our next Governor and the entire Democratic slate today. Felt damn good!

You voted for Brian Kemp? I'm kind of surprised.

I’d rather run barefoot through a field of rusty nails.

[libertpaulian]

BTW, how are they able to break VBM ballots down by race and gender like that?

[GeorgiaModerate]

BTW, how are they able to break VBM ballots down by race and gender like that?

Demographic info is collected when you register here.  I believe this is a VRA requirement.

[Continential]

Evans would of got less

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1046260657585295360

[Torrain]

Planning to vote the 15th on the first day of early voting

I just voted for our next Governor and the entire Democratic slate today. Felt damn good!

You voted for Brian Kemp? I'm kind of surprised.

I’d rather run barefoot through a field of rusty nails.

This sounds like one of PPP's weird 2016 polls:

Which would you prefer?
a) Governor Kemp
b) Tetanus

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1046260657585295360

So what I do know is the absentee push was micro-targeted to people who sit out midterms, so at this moment I believe this surge in AA participation are from those who probably wouldn't have voted if not prompted by the absentee app being sent to their home followed by the canvass attempts by the state party to make sure these apps and ballots are turned in.

[Virginiá]

How does the absentee push work? Do you mail/deliver absentee request forms to voters who tend to be unreliable in midterms, and they fill it out and send it to the state, who then sends them a ballot when its time? If so, do you guys provide free postage and stuff too?