MD-Gonzales Research: Hogan +16

[Zaybay]

So, I tried to find the crosstabs for this poll, because of its rather sketchy numbers in the counties, but it doesnt seem like I can find them anywhere. So, I decided to estimate the race numbers based on the poll's results, and past elections.

Overall: The ethnicity split is like this:

White: R 60/40

Black: D 55/45

Theres problem 1 with this poll.

Second problem is that Hogan has a 71% approval rating, which is almost the same amount as Charlie's highest ever rating, 74%.  No other approval poll for Hogan has found such a result. morning consult, which, overall, exaggerates popularity and unpopularity on both sides due to methodology, only found him at 68%. The only poll to give him a similar amount was in 2016 by.....Gonzales Research. Huh.
 Another problem with this poll.

Third of all, if Jealous is getting the White vote at 40%, then he has already won the election. Hogan needs it to be around a 65/35 split, due to turnout numbers and the fact that AAs usually vote for the D by massive margins. The fact that Jealous, an AA, is only getting 55%, according to my estimates, which could be wrong, but they didnt release any crosstabs, of the Black vote is preposterous, and if that number were to get above 80%, then Jealous wins.

And i also dont know how much of each political group was surveyed. This election will likely have an increased amount of D voters compared to 2014, and I dont know if that was accounted for in this poll. In fact, it seems that, due to the large swings in the rurals and the suburbs, they may have over-sampled Rs.

Overall, I wasted my time with this poll. Why cant Monmouth do one for this race? Suffolk did one for MA(which found Baker at 50%, BTW, compared to the other polls with him at 60%), why cant a good pollster do one for MD?

Edit: and if anyone can find the crosstabs, that would be greatly appreciated

[brand_allen]

So, I tried to find the crosstabs for this poll, because of its rather sketchy numbers in the counties, but it doesnt seem like I can find them anywhere. So, I decided to estimate the race numbers based on the poll's results, and past elections.

Overall: The ethnicity split is like this:

White: R 60/40

Black: D 55/45

Here's a link to a pdf of the crosstabs: https://htv-prod-media.s3.amazonaws.com/files/gonzales-maryland-poll-august-2018-1534219336.pdf

I did some back of the envelope extrapolating from the crosstabs just for fun because let's be honest - Ben Jealous is going to do better than just 53% among blacks and 55% among Democrats.

So let's say Jealous gets 90% of the African American vote and limits Hogan to just 5% (unlikely given Hogan's popularity but something other Democrats accomplish regularly). The race would then be tied 46-46%, all other aspects of the poll remaining the same.

Also suppose Jealous earns the same percentage of Democrats as Hogan does among Republicans (92.4%), all other aspects of the poll remaining the same... Jealous runs away with it, 57-38%. Why? Because self-identified Democrats outnumber Republicans 2:1 in this poll.

In fact, Jealous would only need 75% of the Democratic vote, and would need to limit Hogan to 21% of Democrats, to break even with Hogan overall at 47-47%.

I personally think this race is likely Republican. But you can see how Jealous has room to grow.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It is more likelier than not that Dems back Stacy Abrams in GA,than elect Jealous, in MD, due to the moderation of Gov.Hogan.  Jealous can better serve the needs by staying as a lobbyist for gun control and wait for Cardin to retire in 2024.

[Zaybay]

So, I tried to find the crosstabs for this poll, because of its rather sketchy numbers in the counties, but it doesnt seem like I can find them anywhere. So, I decided to estimate the race numbers based on the poll's results, and past elections.

Overall: The ethnicity split is like this:

White: R 60/40

Black: D 55/45

Here's a link to a pdf of the crosstabs: https://htv-prod-media.s3.amazonaws.com/files/gonzales-maryland-poll-august-2018-1534219336.pdf

I did some back of the envelope extrapolating from the crosstabs just for fun because let's be honest - Ben Jealous is going to do better than just 53% among blacks and 55% among Democrats.

So let's say Jealous gets 90% of the African American vote and limits Hogan to just 5% (unlikely given Hogan's popularity but something other Democrats accomplish regularly). The race would then be tied 46-46%, all other aspects of the poll remaining the same.

Also suppose Jealous earns the same percentage of Democrats as Hogan does among Republicans (92.4%), all other aspects of the poll remaining the same... Jealous runs away with it, 57-38%. Why? Because self-identified Democrats outnumber Republicans 2:1 in this poll.

In fact, Jealous would only need 75% of the Democratic vote, and would need to limit Hogan to 21% of Democrats, to break even with Hogan overall at 47-47%.

I personally think this race is likely Republican. But you can see how Jealous has room to grow.

Thanks for getting these crosstabs for me! I couldnt find them anywhere. Anyway, popular Rs in the North East usually get a maximum of 15% of the Black vote. This was done by Bill Weld.  Massachusetts most recent popular election with Scott Brown in 2012 got 14%.

And yeah, getting only a bit more than 1/2 of AAs and 56% of Democrats is completely unrealistic.

[brand_allen]

Thanks for getting these crosstabs for me! I couldnt find them anywhere.

You're welcome. Anytime!