MD-Gonzales Research: Hogan +16
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Author Topic: MD-Gonzales Research: Hogan +16  (Read 1709 times)
Terry the Fat Shark
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« on: August 14, 2018, 12:05:25 AM »

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-md-hogan-jealous-poll-20180813-story.html#

Larry Hogan (R) - 52%
Ben Jealous (D) - 36%
Undecided - 11%

Conducted from August 1st through August 8th.
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wesmoorenerd
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« Reply #1 on: August 14, 2018, 12:07:22 AM »

Just as Likely R as ever. I've had it at Likely R since the beginning. Jealous is probably going to blow it, although it was barely a winnable race in the first place.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #2 on: August 14, 2018, 12:09:09 AM »

Good! Would like to see Vermon't numbers too. . The Republican "base" there may be dumb enough to try to beat Scott in today's primary solely on basis of "gun control anger", though he is obviously the only one, who can win GE for them.
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wesmoorenerd
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« Reply #3 on: August 14, 2018, 12:18:49 AM »
« Edited: August 14, 2018, 12:22:06 AM by westroopnerd »

Actually, upon further inspection, I don't buy this poll for a second.

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I'm from Montgomery County. I know the area well enough to say that there's absolutely no chance Jealous has a 35 point lead in Montgomery while only leading in PG by 13 and Baltimore by 6. The Montgomery number sounds incredibly optimistic for Jealous while the PG and Baltimore numbers sound the opposite. Back in 2014, Anthony Brown won PG by 70 points and Baltimore by 54, while only winning Montgomery by 25. Either the numbers in the poll are wrong or that's an absolutely remarkable reversal. You don't just go from losing a county by 70 points to losing it by 13 and somehow, simultaneously, go from losing a different county by 25 to losing it by 35. That's just illogical.

Those numbers in mostly black, inflexible PG and Baltimore aren't just surprising, they're downright unbelievable. Same with the numbers in moderate white Montgomery, which Jealous is a fairly bad fit for.
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #4 on: August 14, 2018, 12:35:10 AM »

DEADDDDDD at Hogan polling in the 30's in PG and Baltimore proper. Trash poll.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #5 on: August 14, 2018, 12:49:05 AM »

Actually, upon further inspection, I don't buy this poll for a second.

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I'm from Montgomery County. I know the area well enough to say that there's absolutely no chance Jealous has a 35 point lead in Montgomery while only leading in PG by 13 and Baltimore by 6. The Montgomery number sounds incredibly optimistic for Jealous while the PG and Baltimore numbers sound the opposite. Back in 2014, Anthony Brown won PG by 70 points and Baltimore by 54, while only winning Montgomery by 25. Either the numbers in the poll are wrong or that's an absolutely remarkable reversal. You don't just go from losing a county by 70 points to losing it by 13 and somehow, simultaneously, go from losing a different county by 25 to losing it by 35. That's just illogical.

Those numbers in mostly black, inflexible PG and Baltimore aren't just surprising, they're downright unbelievable. Same with the numbers in moderate white Montgomery, which Jealous is a fairly bad fit for.
Isn't it possible the errors on each side balance out for this number to be accurate? Tongue
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Zaybay
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« Reply #6 on: August 14, 2018, 01:01:32 AM »
« Edited: August 14, 2018, 01:08:43 AM by Zaybay »

Whew, this poll reeks!

Not only does it have AA voters moving to Hogan en masse, but it shows that Jealous somehow retains the white liberal swing voters, something that would actually secure his victory. If the AA numbers are wrong(they are rather inflexible, so this scenario is more likely), then this race is actually much closer, since Jealous is holding the voters he needs. If the white numbers are the problem(less likely), then Jealous is losing by more than 20 points.

Either way, a faulty poll, worse than the internal.

Edit:my current theory for why he’s doing well in Montgomery is because white Democrats tend to be more liberal, which would explain why the more progressive dem Jealous would be winning them by a larger margin than the weak and centrist Brown. The AA numbers, however, make little sense, an R doesn’t go from a 60 point defict in one of the most populated counties to a 10 point one, It’s impossible.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #7 on: August 14, 2018, 01:07:01 AM »

Actually, upon further inspection, I don't buy this poll for a second.

Quote
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I'm from Montgomery County. I know the area well enough to say that there's absolutely no chance Jealous has a 35 point lead in Montgomery while only leading in PG by 13 and Baltimore by 6. The Montgomery number sounds incredibly optimistic for Jealous while the PG and Baltimore numbers sound the opposite. Back in 2014, Anthony Brown won PG by 70 points and Baltimore by 54, while only winning Montgomery by 25. Either the numbers in the poll are wrong or that's an absolutely remarkable reversal. You don't just go from losing a county by 70 points to losing it by 13 and somehow, simultaneously, go from losing a different county by 25 to losing it by 35. That's just illogical.

Those numbers in mostly black, inflexible PG and Baltimore aren't just surprising, they're downright unbelievable. Same with the numbers in moderate white Montgomery, which Jealous is a fairly bad fit for.
Isn't it possible the errors on each side balance out for this number to be accurate? Tongue
Well, no. Jealous going 60 points down compared to Brown in one of the most populous counties but increasing by 10 in another doesnít balance out. If it did, then this poll would have Hogan leading by mid-high single digits, if we are to assume numbers that we have seen in other polling for this race.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #8 on: August 14, 2018, 01:09:45 AM »

Crosstabs often involve incredibly small sample sizes and tell you next to nothing.


This race is Likely R, and the only reason why it's not Safe R is that there are still two and a half months for Trump or Hogan to completely implode.
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henster
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« Reply #9 on: August 14, 2018, 01:14:39 AM »

I don't mind if Jealous loses, I think Justice Dems & DSA types need to learn a lesson. Losing primaries doesn't seem good enough to get the message across to them.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #10 on: August 14, 2018, 01:16:19 AM »

Itís honestly hilarious that Democrats are struggling to win a gubernatorial race in Maryland after basically annihilating the entire Virginia Republican Party 9 months ago. I know MD isnít VA, Hogan is a very popular incumbent, etc. etc., but itís still kinda funny. Still a Tossup, but I am close to changing my prediction from a Jealous win to a (narrow?) Hogan win.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #11 on: August 14, 2018, 01:43:09 AM »

Likely R, but closer to safe R.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #12 on: August 14, 2018, 01:49:11 AM »

Why is everyone taking this poll seriously? Itís hot garbage! Doesnít even hold up. Reminds me a bit of the gravis Peterson poll, the crossroads are so screwy. But I guess it does confirm to atlas that their moderate titan is safe, so I guess thatís all that matters.
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Skye
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« Reply #13 on: August 14, 2018, 06:10:43 AM »

Why is everyone taking this poll seriously? Itís hot garbage! Doesnít even hold up. Reminds me a bit of the gravis Peterson poll, the crossroads are so screwy. But I guess it does confirm to atlas that their moderate titan is safe, so I guess thatís all that matters.

What. Hogan has led Jealous in every single poll taken of the race by double digits (the exception being Jealous's own internal, lmao). But yeah, don't worry, it's us that are in the wrong. You know, for someone that likes to accuse other people of seeing what they want to see, you are probably worse in that regard.
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Politician
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« Reply #14 on: August 14, 2018, 07:45:15 AM »

Likely R, and obviously less likely to flip than Kansas, Oklahoma or Tennessee.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #15 on: August 14, 2018, 07:45:53 AM »

Why is everyone taking this poll seriously? Itís hot garbage! Doesnít even hold up. Reminds me a bit of the gravis Peterson poll, the crossroads are so screwy. But I guess it does confirm to atlas that their moderate titan is safe, so I guess thatís all that matters.

What. Hogan has led Jealous in every single poll taken of the race by double digits (the exception being Jealous's own internal, lmao). But yeah, don't worry, it's us that are in the wrong. You know, for someone that likes to accuse other people of seeing what they want to see, you are probably worse in that regard.
yeah, cause no race has ever shifted by double digits in the last couple months. No race ever. Things are permanent. The wave doesnt exist in MD, and Hogan is Safe R.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maryland_gubernatorial_election,_2014

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Hampshire_gubernatorial_election,_2014

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Missouri,_2016

And these are just the ones I can think off the top of my head

I mean, yeah, its good to lead in double digits in polling months before the election, but Hogan's lead is tenuous and not sustainable. The wave doesnt allow for it. What we are likely to see, as with all other races with a popular incumbent in a safe state that belongs to the oppo party, is a move towards a closer race near the end. Waves do make an impact.

But yeah, this poll really sucks. It weirdly gives Jealous an increased share of the white vote that actually secures his victory. As in, if he won this percentage, it would be governor Jealous. But then he loses almost 30-40% of the Black vote to Hogan, which creates the margin in this poll. Thats unrealistic.
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Skye
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« Reply #16 on: August 14, 2018, 08:33:39 AM »

Why is everyone taking this poll seriously? Itís hot garbage! Doesnít even hold up. Reminds me a bit of the gravis Peterson poll, the crossroads are so screwy. But I guess it does confirm to atlas that their moderate titan is safe, so I guess thatís all that matters.

What. Hogan has led Jealous in every single poll taken of the race by double digits (the exception being Jealous's own internal, lmao). But yeah, don't worry, it's us that are in the wrong. You know, for someone that likes to accuse other people of seeing what they want to see, you are probably worse in that regard.
yeah, cause no race has ever shifted by double digits in the last couple months. No race ever. Things are permanent. The wave doesnt exist in MD, and Hogan is Safe R.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maryland_gubernatorial_election,_2014

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Hampshire_gubernatorial_election,_2014

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Missouri,_2016

And these are just the ones I can think off the top of my head

I mean, yeah, its good to lead in double digits in polling months before the election, but Hogan's lead is tenuous and not sustainable. The wave doesnt allow for it. What we are likely to see, as with all other races with a popular incumbent in a safe state that belongs to the oppo party, is a move towards a closer race near the end. Waves do make an impact.

Hogan may not be safe, because Maryland democrats have a very high floor and it's a Dem wave year. We all get that. Despite what you claim, that Atlas believes Hogan is Safe, check the predictions page and you'll see that the aggregate rating for this race is Lean R. And yes, the race may shift by double digits, and that will probably be the natural course of the race, after all it'd take a specially bad kind of Democrat and a whole different environment to manage to get less than 40% in freaking Maryland.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #17 on: August 14, 2018, 08:57:41 AM »

Why is everyone taking this poll seriously? Itís hot garbage! Doesnít even hold up. Reminds me a bit of the gravis Peterson poll, the crossroads are so screwy. But I guess it does confirm to atlas that their moderate titan is safe, so I guess thatís all that matters.

What. Hogan has led Jealous in every single poll taken of the race by double digits (the exception being Jealous's own internal, lmao). But yeah, don't worry, it's us that are in the wrong. You know, for someone that likes to accuse other people of seeing what they want to see, you are probably worse in that regard.
yeah, cause no race has ever shifted by double digits in the last couple months. No race ever. Things are permanent. The wave doesnt exist in MD, and Hogan is Safe R.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maryland_gubernatorial_election,_2014

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Hampshire_gubernatorial_election,_2014

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Missouri,_2016

And these are just the ones I can think off the top of my head

I mean, yeah, its good to lead in double digits in polling months before the election, but Hogan's lead is tenuous and not sustainable. The wave doesnt allow for it. What we are likely to see, as with all other races with a popular incumbent in a safe state that belongs to the oppo party, is a move towards a closer race near the end. Waves do make an impact.

Hogan may not be safe, because Maryland democrats have a very high floor and it's a Dem wave year. We all get that. Despite what you claim, that Atlas believes Hogan is Safe, check the predictions page and you'll see that the aggregate rating for this race is Lean R. And yes, the race may shift by double digits, and that will probably be the natural course of the race, after all it'd take a specially bad kind of Democrat and a whole different environment to manage to get less than 40% in freaking Maryland.
Yeah, I guess its true that in predictions, people overall rate this lean R. I just wanted to dispel the fact that many people were claiming that this race wont shift, and Hogan will stay in the double digits, which is, frankly, impossible in this environment. Some were even wondering how Hogan's coattails would effect state races, assuming he won by 20 points.

Anyway, I still think this poll is a dumpster fire, nothing makes any sense, and it seems complete garbage. Are the white numbers true? Unlikely, at least at this point in the race. Are the AA numbers true? Definitely no. This poll just reeks.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #18 on: August 14, 2018, 09:01:43 AM »

Likely R, and obviously less likely to flip than Kansas, Oklahoma or Tennessee.

lol no
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IceSpear
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« Reply #19 on: August 14, 2018, 09:38:30 AM »

New Poll: Maryland Governor by Gonzales Research on 2018-08-08

Summary: D: 36%, R: 52%, U: 12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Xing
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« Reply #20 on: August 14, 2018, 12:21:51 PM »

Weird poll, but even if undecideds break heavily for Jealous, I have a hard time seeing this even being close. Likely R, but close to Safe than Lean.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #21 on: August 14, 2018, 12:37:47 PM »

I mean, I guess the Bmore number could be semi-realistic, he has a 66% approval there.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #22 on: August 14, 2018, 12:49:10 PM »

Democratic Maryland and NH love Chris Sununu and L.Hogan, safe R in those races.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #23 on: August 14, 2018, 01:17:25 PM »

I can buy the Baltimore number given Hoganís approvals, but the PG number simply canít be right. Jesus Christ (R) wouldnít pull 35-40% there in November.

Hogan is clearly the favorite but this is a race that could swing hard if he makes one mistake.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #24 on: August 14, 2018, 01:25:52 PM »

wow
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