OR-GOV: Brown vs. Buehler

[TheSaint250]

I couldn’t find a thread for this race, so here we go!

First thing I wanted to bring up was from this article:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Now, I don’t believe that Brown is in real danger of losing, but that small of a lead from an internal poll caught my eye.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Kate Brown doesnt deserve to be reelected

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bueler can be elected over Kate Brown and Shawn Moody and the GOP is making endroads in RI and CT

[Politician]

Cook Political moves this race to Lean D:

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/governors/oregon-governor/oregon-governor-moves-lean-democratic

I would have kept it Likely, but a race to watch nonetheless.

[Zaybay]

This is ridiculous, two polls, one being Gravis, come out and say this race is close, and Cook panics and move the race to lean D, meanwhile the same can be said for AZ, yet no movement. Garbage.

[Xing]

Two junk polls, and now we believe that Republicans will flip a race that they couldn't in 2010, 2014, or 2016? Suuuuuuuure. Of course Oregon is just as likely to flip as Wisconsin.

[TheSaint250]

Cook Political moves this race to Lean D:

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/governors/oregon-governor/oregon-governor-moves-lean-democratic

I would have kept it Likely, but a race to watch nonetheless.

Guess I timed this thread perfectly

But yeah, this race is Likely D at worst (I personally have it at Safe D)

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Two junk polls, and now we believe that Republicans will flip a race that they couldn't in 2010, 2014, or 2016? Suuuuuuuure. Of course Oregon is just as likely to flip as Wisconsin.

OR is Lean D, WI is Likely D.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Two junk polls, and now we believe that Republicans will flip a race that they couldn't in 2010, 2014, or 2016? Suuuuuuuure. Of course Oregon is just as likely to flip as Wisconsin.

OR is no where near as Solidly Dem as you think


Actually other than NH and ME it is the most republican coastal state

[Politician]

Two junk polls, and now we believe that Republicans will flip a race that they couldn't in 2010, 2014, or 2016? Suuuuuuuure. Of course Oregon is just as likely to flip as Wisconsin.

OR is no where near as Solidly Dem as you think


Actually other than NH and ME it is the most republican coastal state

South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia don't exist?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Two junk polls, and now we believe that Republicans will flip a race that they couldn't in 2010, 2014, or 2016? Suuuuuuuure. Of course Oregon is just as likely to flip as Wisconsin.

OR is no where near as Solidly Dem as you think


Actually other than NH and ME it is the most republican coastal state

South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia don't exist?

I meant out of the  North East and Pacific Coast states

[Bidenworth2020]

Dems for Beuhler!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sabato has MN as tossup. But, its not unlikely GOP can win RI, CT either

[wesmoorenerd]

This is ridiculous, two polls, one being Gravis, come out and say this race is close, and Cook panics and move the race to lean D, meanwhile the same can be said for AZ, yet no movement. Garbage.

I can't argue with that, Cook needs to improve their gubernatorial rankings. WI at Lean R? AZ at Likely R? OK and SD at Safe R? Laughable.

[Xing]

Two junk polls, and now we believe that Republicans will flip a race that they couldn't in 2010, 2014, or 2016? Suuuuuuuure. Of course Oregon is just as likely to flip as Wisconsin.

OR is no where near as Solidly Dem as you think


Actually other than NH and ME it is the most republican coastal state

South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia don't exist?

I meant out of the  North East and Pacific Coast states

That's like saying that South Carolina is the most Democratic Southern state other than Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. Sure, it's not a state that votes Democratic by 25-30%, but federally it's a safe bet for Democrats. Gubernatorial races are usually closer, but in a year like this, there's no reason to believe Oregon will buck the national trend, unless Republicans have virtually everything working in their favor.

Whereas a Democrat winning Wisconsin... Despite the obsession with "Wississippi" on this forum, that wouldn't be a strange result in the slightest, much less in a year like this. Likely D is justifiable for Oregon. Rating it as likely to flip as Wisconsin is absurd.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Two junk polls, and now we believe that Republicans will flip a race that they couldn't in 2010, 2014, or 2016? Suuuuuuuure. Of course Oregon is just as likely to flip as Wisconsin.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Two junk polls, and now we believe that Republicans will flip a race that they couldn't in 2010, 2014, or 2016? Suuuuuuuure. Of course Oregon is just as likely to flip as Wisconsin.

OR is no where near as Solidly Dem as you think


Actually other than NH and ME it is the most republican coastal state

South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia don't exist?

I meant out of the  North East and Pacific Coast states

That's like saying that South Carolina is the most Democratic Southern state other than Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. Sure, it's not a state that votes Democratic by 25-30%, but federally it's a safe bet for Democrats. Gubernatorial races are usually closer, but in a year like this, there's no reason to believe Oregon will buck the national trend, unless Republicans have virtually everything working in their favor.

Whereas a Democrat winning Wisconsin... Despite the obsession with "Wississippi" on this forum, that wouldn't be a strange result in the slightest, much less in a year like this. Likely D is justifiable for Oregon. Rating it as likely to flip as Wisconsin is absurd.

We dont even know who the Democratic Nominee in WI is gonna be , and Walker is a better campaigner than Kate Brown. Also Buehler is a Charlie Baker type Republican.


Also Oregon is not safe D its PVI is just +7.5-8 Dem which is more Likely D than Safe

[pops]

I'm having a bit of a conflict on this race.

On one side, Kate Brown is not exactly Democrats' dream candidate and Buehler has the money behind him, which tipped the scale in Tuesday's Special Election.

On the other hand, Republicans having the money to win has never meant they win in Oregon and women are popular in 2018.

It's Lean D for me until I see three or four good polls.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its a longshop; however, but in a 20O6 landscape, GOP won in HI, with Lingle and Dems won TN. I can see that happening again in 2018, GOP win OR and Dems winning AZ

[OSR stands with Israel]

Its also not like Gubernatorial Elections have bucked the national trend before


Look at 1986, and 2002 for example.

[Xing]

Two junk polls, and now we believe that Republicans will flip a race that they couldn't in 2010, 2014, or 2016? Suuuuuuuure. Of course Oregon is just as likely to flip as Wisconsin.

OR is no where near as Solidly Dem as you think


Actually other than NH and ME it is the most republican coastal state

South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia don't exist?

I meant out of the  North East and Pacific Coast states

That's like saying that South Carolina is the most Democratic Southern state other than Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. Sure, it's not a state that votes Democratic by 25-30%, but federally it's a safe bet for Democrats. Gubernatorial races are usually closer, but in a year like this, there's no reason to believe Oregon will buck the national trend, unless Republicans have virtually everything working in their favor.

Whereas a Democrat winning Wisconsin... Despite the obsession with "Wississippi" on this forum, that wouldn't be a strange result in the slightest, much less in a year like this. Likely D is justifiable for Oregon. Rating it as likely to flip as Wisconsin is absurd.

We dont even know who the Democratic Nominee in WI is gonna be , and Walker is a better campaigner than Kate Brown. Also Buehler is a Charlie Baker type Republican.


Also Oregon is not safe D its PVI is just +7.5-8 Dem which is more Likely D than Safe

1) That's not PVI. Oregon's PVI is currently D+5, which means you'd expect a Republican to get 45% if they're getting 50% nationally, assuming uniform swing. Even if Buehler is a good candidate, this is not looking like a 50/50 year...

2) Scott Walker being a good campaigner is debatable, but even so, that's not enough to make a state with even PVI "Lean R" in what's looking like a very good year for Democrats.

My point is the inconsistency regarding polls among some users on this site.

Two junk polls showing Oregon close = OMG! Toss-Up/Tilt D!
Two polls (one junk, one decent) showing Walker losing badly = Junk, Lean R.

[Sestak]

I'm willing to accept the OR-is-lean-D rating, especially when we have posters like MB supporting Buehler.

On the other hand Ducey isn't safer than Brown. Neither is Walker.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Two junk polls, and now we believe that Republicans will flip a race that they couldn't in 2010, 2014, or 2016? Suuuuuuuure. Of course Oregon is just as likely to flip as Wisconsin.

OR is no where near as Solidly Dem as you think


Actually other than NH and ME it is the most republican coastal state

South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia don't exist?

I meant out of the  North East and Pacific Coast states

That's like saying that South Carolina is the most Democratic Southern state other than Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. Sure, it's not a state that votes Democratic by 25-30%, but federally it's a safe bet for Democrats. Gubernatorial races are usually closer, but in a year like this, there's no reason to believe Oregon will buck the national trend, unless Republicans have virtually everything working in their favor.

Whereas a Democrat winning Wisconsin... Despite the obsession with "Wississippi" on this forum, that wouldn't be a strange result in the slightest, much less in a year like this. Likely D is justifiable for Oregon. Rating it as likely to flip as Wisconsin is absurd.

We dont even know who the Democratic Nominee in WI is gonna be , and Walker is a better campaigner than Kate Brown. Also Buehler is a Charlie Baker type Republican.


Also Oregon is not safe D its PVI is just +7.5-8 Dem which is more Likely D than Safe

1) That's not PVI. Oregon's PVI is currently D+5, which means you'd expect a Republican to get 45% if they're getting 50% nationally, assuming uniform swing. Even if Buehler is a good candidate, this is not looking like a 50/50 year...

2) Scott Walker being a good campaigner is debatable, but even so, that's not enough to make a state with even PVI "Lean R" in what's looking like a very good year for Democrats.

My point is the inconsistency regarding polls among some users on this site.

Two junk polls showing Oregon close = OMG! Toss-Up/Tilt D!
Two polls (one junk, one decent) showing Walker losing badly = Junk, Lean R.

If its within 5-6 points then yes it is a Lean Race

[Calthrina950]

I couldn’t find a thread for this race, so here we go!

First thing I wanted to bring up was from this article:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Now, I don’t believe that Brown is in real danger of losing, but that small of a lead from an internal poll caught my eye.

From what I know, Buehler seems to be a moderate Republican, while Brown is a generic liberal to progressive Democrat. If I were an Oregon voter, I would vote for Buehler, because Brown seems relatively bland and some of her social policy stances are objectionable.

[MAINEiac4434]

Two junk polls, and now we believe that Republicans will flip a race that they couldn't in 2010, 2014, or 2016? Suuuuuuuure. Of course Oregon is just as likely to flip as Wisconsin.

OR is no where near as Solidly Dem as you think


Actually other than NH and ME it is the most republican coastal state

South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia don't exist?

I meant out of the  North East and Pacific Coast states

That's like saying that South Carolina is the most Democratic Southern state other than Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. Sure, it's not a state that votes Democratic by 25-30%, but federally it's a safe bet for Democrats. Gubernatorial races are usually closer, but in a year like this, there's no reason to believe Oregon will buck the national trend, unless Republicans have virtually everything working in their favor.

Whereas a Democrat winning Wisconsin... Despite the obsession with "Wississippi" on this forum, that wouldn't be a strange result in the slightest, much less in a year like this. Likely D is justifiable for Oregon. Rating it as likely to flip as Wisconsin is absurd.

We dont even know who the Democratic Nominee in WI is gonna be , and Walker is a better campaigner than Kate Brown. Also Buehler is a Charlie Baker type Republican.


Also Oregon is not safe D its PVI is just +7.5-8 Dem which is more Likely D than Safe

A Republican has not won a statewide election in Oregon in almost two decades, and the Oregon Democratic Party has one of the longest streaks of victorious gubernatorial campaigns in the country.