OR-GOV: Brown vs. Buehler

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We know OR is a Tilt Dem state, but these pragmatic GOPers are making endroads. Rauner made enroads in IL, but IL hasnt came up with tech jobs like CA has, still in manufacturing. And NE GOPers make middle of road tax cuts.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I couldn’t find a thread for this race, so here we go!

First thing I wanted to bring up was from this article:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Now, I don’t believe that Brown is in real danger of losing, but that small of a lead from an internal poll caught my eye.

From what I know, Buehler seems to be a moderate Republican, while Brown is a generic liberal to progressive Democrat. If I were an Oregon voter, I would vote for Buehler, because Brown seems relatively bland and some of her social policy stances are objectionable.

Buheler also supports a Single Payer type of healthcare system

[Calthrina950]

I couldn’t find a thread for this race, so here we go!

First thing I wanted to bring up was from this article:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Now, I don’t believe that Brown is in real danger of losing, but that small of a lead from an internal poll caught my eye.

From what I know, Buehler seems to be a moderate Republican, while Brown is a generic liberal to progressive Democrat. If I were an Oregon voter, I would vote for Buehler, because Brown seems relatively bland and some of her social policy stances are objectionable.

Buheler also supports a Single Payer type of healthcare system

That is a view far to the left of most Republicans. And it's one that I have no problem with, so long as such a program is financially sustainable and bureaucratically feasible, as I always like to emphasize. Sometimes I long for us to have more moderate-to-conservative Democrats and moderate-to-liberal Republicans.

[MAINEiac4434]

We know OR is a Tilt Dem state, but these pragmatic GOPers are making endroads. Rauner made enroads in IL, but IL hasnt came up with tech jobs like CA has, still in manufacturing. And NE GOPers make middle of road tax cuts.

Again: it's been 16 years since a Republican has won statewide in Oregon. They lost in two of the biggest GOP waves in American political history.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Two junk polls, and now we believe that Republicans will flip a race that they couldn't in 2010, 2014, or 2016? Suuuuuuuure. Of course Oregon is just as likely to flip as Wisconsin.

OR is no where near as Solidly Dem as you think


Actually other than NH and ME it is the most republican coastal state

South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia don't exist?

I meant out of the  North East and Pacific Coast states

That's like saying that South Carolina is the most Democratic Southern state other than Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. Sure, it's not a state that votes Democratic by 25-30%, but federally it's a safe bet for Democrats. Gubernatorial races are usually closer, but in a year like this, there's no reason to believe Oregon will buck the national trend, unless Republicans have virtually everything working in their favor.

Whereas a Democrat winning Wisconsin... Despite the obsession with "Wississippi" on this forum, that wouldn't be a strange result in the slightest, much less in a year like this. Likely D is justifiable for Oregon. Rating it as likely to flip as Wisconsin is absurd.

We dont even know who the Democratic Nominee in WI is gonna be , and Walker is a better campaigner than Kate Brown. Also Buehler is a Charlie Baker type Republican.


Also Oregon is not safe D its PVI is just +7.5-8 Dem which is more Likely D than Safe

A Republican has not won a statewide election in Oregon in almost two decades, and the Oregon Democratic Party has one of the longest streaks of victorious gubernatorial campaigns in the country.

There is a reason for that


In 1990,2002,2010 right wing third party runs cost the GOP

[Continential]

Kate Brown deserves to be reelected

[smoltchanov]

Brown will, most likely, be reelected. Simply because it's a bad year even for pragmatic non-incumbent Republican (Buehler) in mostly blue state. But - not without a fight.

[OBD]

I think this race is deceptively competitive. The two most recent polls show a tie and a 1 point (I think) Buehler lead. I'm not sure why this race isn't getting more attention.

Personally, I'm unsure who I'll vote for as Buehler is pretty moderate, though.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt towards Bueler at the moment, again not every state is gonna vote the same way presidential vs. gubernatorially. I would love to see some upsets. Dems winning ID and GOP winning MD and OR.

[ON Progressive]

I think this race is deceptively competitive. The two most recent polls show a tie and a 1 point (I think) Buehler lead. I'm not sure why this race isn't getting more attention.

Personally, I'm unsure who I'll vote for as Buehler is pretty moderate, though.

The two most recent polls are Gravis (which is the same pollster that thinks Delaware is a battleground state LOL) and a Republican pollster that had Trump winning Oregon (LOL) and only had Brown +1 in 2016 (she won by 8).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Laura Lingle and Gibbs won in Democratic wave years and they were both mainstream in 2002 and 2006.  it's a long shot, but in a Democratic wave year, Reynolds, Buehler, Hogan, Sununu and Laxalt can win, whom are all mainstream. And Reynolds due to Brandstand's popularity.

[Dr. MB]

As an Oregonian I'm supporting Knute Buehler.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

We know OR is a Tilt Dem state, but these pragmatic GOPers are making endroads. Rauner made enroads in IL, but IL hasnt came up with tech jobs like CA has, still in manufacturing. And NE GOPers make middle of road tax cuts.

Again: it's been 16 years since a Republican has won statewide in Oregon. They lost in two of the biggest GOP waves in American political history.

Ackchyually

[wesmoorenerd]

As an Oregonian I'm supporting Knute Buehler.

Don't listen to this Ore-gone-ian Atlas he's a fool and a charlatan 

[CookieDamage]

Some of y'all red Oregonians really will vote for someone you disagree more with because of some weird obsession with moderates.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Some of y'all red Oregonians really will vote for someone you disagree more with because of some weird obsession with moderates.

[KingSweden]

Brown will win by about what she did in 2016, perhaps a hair less

[Dr. MB]

As an Oregonian I'm supporting Knute Buehler.

Don't listen to this Ore-gone-ian Atlas he's a fool and a charlatan 

No, don't listen to this coastal liberal elitist, he's a hack who's never been to Real America™

[Calthrina950]

Some of y'all red Oregonians really will vote for someone you disagree more with because of some weird obsession with moderates.

I would certainly take a moderate over a far-left liberal or a far-right conservative any time.

[Xing]

Some of y'all red Oregonians really will vote for someone you disagree more with because of some weird obsession with "moderates."

Welcome to Atlas!

[Figueira]

What is the problem with Kate Brown?

[Zaybay]

Some of y'all red Oregonians really will vote for someone you disagree more with because of some weird obsession with moderates.

^

Also, OR has a habit of having close races, but they always end with a Dem victory. The only polling so far that show a close race is gravis and an internal that gave the R +1. There is no info to draw from any of this.

But the pundits, oh, they know, these polls truly mean something and this race will be the only R pickup in the country.....What? Theres been internals from AZ that show the D winning? And hes a progressive? Nah. Only Blue Dogs like Sinema can win a state like AZ, the governor's race is likely R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What is the problem with Kate Brown?

GOP can win some NE states and Bueler is moderate enough to satisfy suburbans that otherwise would vote for Dems in statewide offices. Just like Gordan Smith won statewide offices before.

[NOVA Green]

Although, I have been extremely reticent to post on this topic over the past Five Months, except an occasional handful of individual threads, I'm starting to move towards the opinion that Brown will likely win this by at least +5% D margins this November.

Anyone who followed or spent any time in my Oregon 2016 GE Thread is well aware of the import that I place on "Upstate vs Downstate Oregon politics" ....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.0

1.) I'm coming of the opinion that in the current political environment Trump essentially "Maxed Out" the Republican Vote Share in most of Southern and Eastern Oregon.

The only places where I could see Buehler improving might be around the margins in places like Medford, Grants Pass, and Bend, but NOT in the heavily RURAL precincts of essentially CD-02.

2.) If we move further up in the Southern Willamette Valley, and some parts of Southern Coastal Oregon (CD-04) we generally see a similar phenomenon compared to Several Decades of partisan electoral history, even for Statewide Elections, where 'Pubs tend to perform a bit better than FED candidates.

2016 in many ways was more of an alignment in Southern Oregon areas that had been voting heavily Republican for Statewide Contests, while simultaneously some voters filling in their Mail in Ballot for Democrats for PRES, US-SEN, and OR CD-04.

Still, how many more PUB votes are there to be bagged for OR-GOV in '18 compared to TRUMP '16 and OR-GOV '16 #s?

Sure there are potential Indy Voters in parts of Eugene-Springfield that voted HRC '16 that might vote Buehler '18, BUT IS IT ENOUGH.

3.) We roll into the Mid Willamette Valley (OR-CD-05), which is a weird hybrid CD stretching from PDX suburbs and Exurbs all the way down to encompass all of Marion County, grabbing a chunk of Benton and Linn Counties....

In theory, if Buehler were to win, he would need to bag some major numbers in this CD in Oregon....

Problem is that Marion County contains Salem, the State Capitol, and running against Salem doesn't play very well in Marion County, considering that there are HUGE number of State employees covered under Union contracts that come from a wide array of Political, Social, and Economic classes, that don't buy the message that "Government is the Enemy"....

Additionally CD-05 contains some pretty swingy parts of Metro PDX suburban Clackamas County, where quite frankly the 'Pub brand is pretty toxic these days in the "Era of Trump".

Many of the bills that Kate Brown signed into law and helped support through the Democratic Oregon Majority State House and Senate, are fairly popular in these very communities where Buehler needs to reverse some of the massive DEM swings we have seen in the past few election cycles, in areas traditionally more receptive towards a 'PUB GOV, regardless of what the political alignment is "Out East in Washington (DC not State )"

4.) We look at CD-01.... The Coastal Oregon sliver of the District is heavily aging and Ancestral Democrat, and historically has been fairly resistant to "Downstate" vs "Upstate" political dynamics in terms of FED vs OR STATE elections.... (Excepting Columbia County).

Now we move into the West PDX Suburbs that compromise a large majority of the Vote Share in CD-01 and again we hit that brick wall of places likes Hillsboro, Beaverton, Tigard, etc  that started shifting hard DEM at the FED level going back over 20 Yrs, and even increasingly DEM at the Statewide level, although these elections typically have been much closer in these communities contrasted against FED DEM margins.

It's hard for me to envision in 2018 a "Compassionate Moderate Conservative" like Buehler playing well in these types of places, considering the leader of the "PUB BRAND" he is representing, in arguably one of the most educated and ethnically diverse Counties in Oregon (Washington County), which ever since I was a kid in the '80s was nicknamed "Silicon Forest"....

5.) OR-CD-03- East Portland & Gresham

Well, obviously the game here for Buehler would be to keep DEM TO low, since the raw vote totals out of East MultCo can one hand completely slaughter PUB raw margins elsewhere in Oregon.

Many people seem to forgot how poorly Trump performed in both the Working-Class, Middle-Class, and Upper Middle-Class precincts of most of the Big Cities of the West Coast....

Sure, Buehler might well be able to jack up some numbers in fast growing Gresham and Troutdale, but I'm not really seeing the math here, even in both WWC precincts in the North part of the District, heavily SE-Asian-American precincts  in outer SE and Inner NE Portland, etc....

I might well be wrong, so my opinion is not gospel and can and certainly should be challenged....

6.) Kate Brown is already reviled and despised in many parts of rural and small-town downstate Oregon.

A.) Much of that has less to do with her actual policy decisions, but rather that whole Oregonian thing where in more peripheral parts of the State there is a disassociation between the "Core and Periphery" that goes back in Decades of Oregon State Elections, especially with the start of the "Timber Wars" of the late '80s/ Early Mid '90s.

B.) Guns is a major issue that I have heard voiced in the large MFG Facility where I work, and even excepting partisan bias on the part of some individuals, there is a perception among many DEM persuadable voters that, she has an "Anti-Gun" agenda...

This is a part of Oregon, where if someone brings in some Venison Steak or Sausage to work, because they or their spouse filled out their tags, it get's brought in to share with co-workers at the Plant, because there are already plenty of Venison Steaks in the freezer to last until next Deer Hunting Season.

C.) Kate Brown's alleged sexual orientation is a non-issue to the overwhelming majority of Oregon Voters....

Haters will be haters, and honestly most Oregonians don't give an eff about any of that.

Evangelicals will def vote hard PUB in OR since they have from the '90s onwards, but quite frankly there aren't very many of them in Oregon, and since the days of the OCA, the swingy ones are long since disassociated from the Anti-LGTBQ Hate Agenda that we experienced from the late '80s to the early '90s....

D.) One thing that in theory might have worked in the PUBS favor the OR-GOV election, "Tax Cuts", which in theory disproportionately benefit Middle and Upper Middle-Class voters in the 'Burbs of PDX, Salem, Eugene, not to mention many other similar communities in places like Corvallis, Jackson and Deschutes County, has effectively been neutered by the "Trump Tax Cuts" that disproportionately targeted Democratic leaning States where individuals could deduct State Income Taxes from FED taxes to lower their overall Tax Burden....

Not seeing how well this will play in Wealthier places in Deschutes, Jackson, Washington, Clackamas, Benton, and even Multnomah Counties.....

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There will be upsets this election cycle just like the others, as recently as 2016, with WI and PA.  NE moderate GOPers are making better enroads than their collegues in the industrial midwest.