OH-12 Special Election Predictions
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Poll
Question: O’Connor vs Balderson, who wins?
#1
O’Connor (D)		  
#2
Balderson (R)		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 79

Author Topic: OH-12 Special Election Predictions  (Read 5667 times)
Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #50 on: August 07, 2018, 12:29:55 AM »
Quote from: RubioRepublican on August 07, 2018, 12:28:06 AM
People are way overreading into the early vote totals too. The early vote will only be about 10-15% of the total vote if other specials are any indication

I highly doubt there will be 225-340k total ballots cast.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #51 on: August 07, 2018, 01:21:55 AM »
Going with Balderson by 1%
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #52 on: August 07, 2018, 01:32:12 AM »
Quote from: RubioRepublican on August 07, 2018, 01:22:01 AM
Quote from: Zaybay on August 07, 2018, 12:28:58 AM
Quote from: RubioRepublican on August 07, 2018, 12:28:06 AM
People are way overreading into the early vote totals too. The early vote will only be about 10-15% of the total vote if other specials are any indication
OH is an early voting state, sort of like the AZ special. These EV mean more than you think.

There were just over 34k early votes plus absentees. There were over 200k votes cast in PA-18 and nearly 200k cast in AZ-8. The early vote numbers are practically meaningless unless election day turnout collapses across the board.

Well not completely meaningless, in a close race a couple thousand votes can make our break it, but I agree we are giving it too much weight, but there won't be close to 200 grand votes in this race either.
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andjey
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« Reply #53 on: August 07, 2018, 05:27:47 AM »
Balderson by 1,4%
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #54 on: August 07, 2018, 05:40:39 AM »
I really am hoping Oconnor pulls it out
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Progressive
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« Reply #55 on: August 07, 2018, 06:33:33 AM »
Quote from: Cory Booker on August 07, 2018, 05:40:39 AM
I really am hoping Oconnor pulls it out

Me too. In a district that went 67-30 for GOP last round even a HOP win by 1 vote will get Trump and the genius squad to claim a red wave
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Mike Thick
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« Reply #56 on: August 07, 2018, 08:33:55 AM »
51-47 Balderson
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Bman409
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« Reply #57 on: August 07, 2018, 08:45:29 AM »
Balderson by 5
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #58 on: August 07, 2018, 08:51:26 AM »
Balderson by a very slim margin. And then the orange clown will pretend it is his great victory. Hope I'm wrong though.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #59 on: August 07, 2018, 08:53:23 AM »
Balderson by 0.5%. But O’Connor winning an even narrower margin wouldn’t surprise me.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #60 on: August 07, 2018, 09:45:30 AM »
I'm not looking forward to the article headlines and dumb takes when Balderson wins tonight like this one:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cincinnati.com/amp/914633002

I mean come on!! Regardless of the outcome tonight, even a Balderson by 6 win, I can guarantee you that it will not be indicative of a red wave!! It's either these tools are trolls or they simply have no clue what they are talking about!
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Woody
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« Reply #61 on: August 07, 2018, 10:42:05 AM »
Balderson wins by around 5-6 points ahead of O'Connor.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #62 on: August 07, 2018, 10:51:07 AM »
Balderson got the coveted Brad Wenstrup endorsement, I'm tempted to move this to Balderson by 8 beacuse of this, but I'll hold off for now.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #63 on: August 07, 2018, 11:10:14 AM »
Quote from: Prolocutor Bagel23 on August 07, 2018, 10:51:07 AM
Balderson got the coveted Brad Wenstrup endorsement, I'm tempted to move this to Balderson by 8 beacuse of this, but I'll hold off for now.

Obvious troll is obvious.
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #64 on: August 07, 2018, 11:20:05 AM »
Moving this to Balderson + 20 after Bagel23 does his Jedi dance in support of Balderson
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #65 on: August 07, 2018, 11:21:32 AM »
Quote from: Redneck Conservative on August 07, 2018, 11:20:05 AM
Moving this to Balderson + 20 after Bagel23 does his Jedi dance in support of Balderson

I have been tempted to root for Balderson, but hackery wins so I want O'Connor to win.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #66 on: August 07, 2018, 11:27:25 AM »
O'Connor by fewer than 1000 votes
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wesmoorenerd
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« Reply #67 on: August 07, 2018, 11:43:07 AM »
This morning I was thinking O'Connor by a few hundred, now I'm thinking Balderson by a few hundred. I can't make up my mind!

You know what f**ck it I'm predicting an exact tie
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windjammer
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« Reply #68 on: August 07, 2018, 03:02:11 PM »
O'Connor by 1
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VPH
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« Reply #69 on: August 07, 2018, 03:29:30 PM »
Finally I'm going to be optimistic, after predicting Moore and Saccone victories.

O'Connor - 50%
Balderson - 48%
Other - 2%
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #70 on: August 07, 2018, 03:40:17 PM »
I posted a final prediction a few days ago having O'Connor up 1.5%. I am going to be bolder and change it to O'Connor by 3%.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #71 on: August 07, 2018, 03:42:47 PM »
I have a feeling we all may be overestimating the green party share of the vote.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #72 on: August 07, 2018, 03:57:17 PM »
I am revising my prediction up from Balderson +2 a few weeks ago to O’Connor +1. Balderson is behaving like someone who feels he’s losing.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #73 on: August 07, 2018, 03:58:33 PM »
Quote from: Zyzz on August 07, 2018, 03:40:17 PM
I posted a final prediction a few days ago having O'Connor up 1.5%. I am going to be bolder and change it to O'Connor by 3%.

No way O’Connor wins by 3%.

I’m sticking with Balderson by 0.5%, and think the election will come down to around Balderson by 0.5% to O’Connor by 0.25%. But the absolute window is something like Balderson by 6% to O’Connor by 2%.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #74 on: August 07, 2018, 04:02:12 PM »
Quote from: Brittain33 on August 07, 2018, 03:57:17 PM
I am revising my prediction up from Balderson +2 a few weeks ago to O’Connor +1. Balderson is behaving like someone who feels he’s losing.

You think he's holding some internals close to his chest?
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