Constituencies of a parliamentary US

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

NoVa:
Fairfax North 69-29 Biden D+19
Fairfax South 70-28 Biden D+18
Arlington 80-18 Biden D+30
Manassas 63-36 Biden D+11
Loudoun 63-36 Biden D+10
Fredericksburg 53-45 Trump R+8

West of Fall Line:
Shehandoah 62-37 Trump R+17
Roanoke 62-37 Trump R+15
Clinch-Powell 72-27 Trump R+25

East of Fall Line:
Charlottesville 50-48 Biden R+1
Richmond South 57-42 Biden D+4
Richmond North-Henrico 69-29 Biden D+17
Emporia 54-45 Trump R+6

Hampton Roads and Chesapeake Bay:
Virginia Beach-Accomack 51-47 Biden R+1
Norfolk 60-38 Biden D+9
Hampton-Portsmouth 66-32 Biden D+15
Rappahannock 57-41 Trump R+11

The main changes are in Northern Virginia. Loudoun loses all territory in the northern Shenandoah Valley and enters Fairfax. Population shifts force Roanoke north and east.
The map was more stable than I expected. Minor shifts were seen in Richmond, where Richmond North lost its share of Hanover County and Richmond South lost Petersburg.
Fredericksburg, Manassas, Virginia Beach-Accomack, Norfolk, and Hampton-Portsmouth are unchanged.

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[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Coastal Plain:
Pamlico 51-48 Biden D+1
Greenville 55-43 Trump R+8
Wilmington-Jacksonville 56-43 Trump R+9
Lumberton 59-40 Trump R+10
Smithfield 57-42 Trump R+10

Piedmont:
Durham 64-34 Biden D+14
Raleigh North 63-35 Biden D+12
Raleigh South 61-37 Biden D+10
Fayetteville 51-48 Biden EVEN
Chapel Hill 59-39 Biden D+8
Asheboro 69-29 Trump R+22

Triad and Charlotte:
Greensboro 61-38 Biden D+10
Winston-Salem 50-48 Biden R+2
Statesville 67-32 Trump R+20
Concord 60-39 Trump R+14
Mecklenburg North-Gaston 56-42 Trump R+10
Mecklenburg Central 79-19 Biden D+29
Mecklenburg South 59-39 Biden D+7

Western Mountains:
Hendersonville 34-65 Trump R+18
Asheville 49.5-48.8 Trump R+3
Boone 71-28 Trump R+24

NC gains one member, going from 20 to 21. Pamlico has to expand. Mecklenburg and Wake now have too many people to have just two constituencies apiece. The new constituency is in northern Mecklenburg County. Asheville becomes much more marginal; in 2030 it is likely to become a Dem-leaning district outright. Wilmington-Jacksonville, Fayetteville, Lumberton, Greensboro, and Asheboro remain unchanged.

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[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wheeling
Charleston
Beckley
Potomac-Elkins

These districts are unchanged for the 2020s.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Lowlands:
Charleston 53-45 Biden D+1
Myrtle Beach 60-39 Trump R+13
Hilton Head-Aiken 56-43 Trump R+9
Santee 49.2-49.2 Trump R+2

Uplands:
Columbia-Murray 50-48 Trump R+3
Kershaw 55-43 Biden D+4
Rock Hill 58-40 Trump R+12
Spartanburg 63-35 Trump R+16
Clemson 70-28 Trump R+23
Greenville 58-40 Trump R+13

Some constituencies saw major changes due to knock-off from redrawing in an effort to get rid of all county splits while still keeping things reasonable. Lexington-Murray and Columbia disappear, to be replaced with Columbia-Murray. Charleston, Myrtle Beach, and Greenville are unchanged.

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[President Punxsutawney Phil]

SW OH:
Cincinnati West 56-43 Biden D+4
Cincinnati East  50-48 Trump R+4
Hamilton 64-35 Trump R+17
Dayton 52-46 Biden D+1
Beavercreek 64-35 Trump R+17
Lebanon-Circleville 70-29 Trump R+23

Applachian OH:
Lancaster-Coshocton 65-34 Trump R+18
Portsmouth 68-30 Trump R+20
Zanesville 71-27 Trump R+23
Youngstown 54-45 Trump R+5

Franklin County:
Columbus North 70-28 Biden D+18
Columbus East 69-30 Biden D+18
Columbus West 51-47 Trump R+5

NW OH:
Delaware-Lima 62-37 Trump R+15
Sidney 77-22 Trump R+30
Toledo 58-41 Biden D+5
Bowling Green 62-37 Trump R+14
Ashland 67-32 Trump R+19

NE OH:
Cleveland West 57-42 Biden D+6
Cleveland East 82-17 Biden D+32
Firelands (Geauga, Lake, part of Cuyahoga) 51-48 Biden R+1
Akron 54-45 Biden D+3
Canton 58-41 Trump R+10
Elyria 49.5-49.3 Biden R+2

Extensive reordering of lines was necessary due to a population shift away from Applachian Ohio in particular and towards Greater Columbus. Cleveland East was redrawn to avoid overpacking blacks. Greater Columbus grows from 3.5 constituencies to almost 4.5, which forces Columbus North out of Delaware County completely and makes either that or Delaware-Lima perhaps even a new seat. Toledo and Ashland are completely unchanged.

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[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Southern GA:
Savannah 49.3-49.2 Trump R+2
Waycross-Vidalia 71-28 Trump R+23
Valdosta 56-43 Trump R+8
Columbus 51-48 Trump R+3
Augusta 52-47 Biden D+1
Macon 56-43 Trump R+9

Inner Atlanta Metro:
Atlanta North 62-37 Biden D+10
Atlanta South 85-14 Biden D+34
Decatur 71-28 Biden D+24
Stone Mountain 79-20 Biden D+28
Gwinett West 64-35 Biden D+11
Gwinett East 53-45 Biden R+1
Cobb North 52-47 Biden R+2
Cobb South 56-43 Biden D+2

Atlanta exurbs+Northern GA:
Clayton 65-34 Biden D+13
LaGrange 69-30 Trump R+22
Athens 50-49 Trump R+4
Hartwell 71-28 Trump R+25
Gainesville 78-21 Trump R+31
Dalton 74-24 Trump R+28
Cherokee 67-31 Trump R+24

GA, due to population growth, gains 2 seats (going from 19 to 21), both in and around Atlanta. Stable populations in southern Georgia allow for Savannah, Waycross-Vidalia, Valdosta, Columbus, Augusta, and Macon to stay exactly the same. The Athens constituency also stays the same and is the only other one to do so. Meanwhile, two constituencies are nested in Fulton and Gwinett apiece. Hall County is separated from Forsyth and Cherokee counties and becomes the center of a new constituency that spans across Northern Georgia. Hartwell loses White County to this constituency, which is named Gainesville.

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[_.]

Florida in this parliamentary system would have 43 seats. Here's my try:

Image Link

The Population Deviation is 19.69%, and it reflects the 2020 Census.

78/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
76/100 on the Compactness Index
59/100 on County Splitting
78/100 on the Minority Representation index
31/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 27R to 16D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida: 22R to 21D

2018 Florida Attorney General Election: 26R to 17D

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 24R to 19D

2018 Florida Gubernatorial Election: 24R to 19D

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida: 25R to 18D


FL-1: PENSACOLA
FL-2: PANAMA CITY
FL-3: TALLAHASSEE
FL-4: GAINESVILLE
FL-5: ST. AUGUSTINE
FL-6: JACKSONVILLE WEST
FL-7: JACKSONVILLE EAST
FL-8: OCALA
FL-9: DAYTONA BEACH
FL-10: DELTONA-SANFORD
FL-11: ORLANDO CENTRAL
FL-12: ORLANDO SOUTH
FL-13: ORLANDO WEST
FL-14: KISSIMMEE
FL-15: THE VILLAGES
FL-16: GREATER DISNEYLAND
FL-17: SPRING HILL
FL-18: CLEARWATER
FL-19: ST. PETERSBURG
FL-20: TAMPA CENTRAL
FL-21: TAMPA NORTH
FL-22: LAKELAND-WINTER HAVEN
FL-23: TAMPA EAST
FL-24: SARASOTA
FL-25: NORTH PORT
FL-26: OKEECHOBEE
FL-27: CAPE CORAL
FL-28: BONITA SPRINGS-NAPLES
FL-29: CAPE CANAVERAL
FL-30: TREASURE COAST
FL-31: JUPITER
FL-32: WEST PALM BEACH
FL-33: BOYNTON BEACH-DELRAY BEACH
FL-34: BOCA RATON
FL-35: LAUDERHILL
FL-36: FORT LAUDERDALE-HOLLYWOOD
FL-37: PEMBROKE PINES-MIRAMAR
FL-38: MIAMI GARDENS
FL-39: MIAMI CENTRAL
FL-40: HIALEAH
FL-41: WESTCHESTER
FL-42: KENDALL
FL-43: HOMESTEAD

Clearly Central Florida naming isn't my strong suit (and to a lesser extent South Florida)


Opinions?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Northern Florida:
Pensacola 63-35 Trump R+17
Panama City 72-27 Trump R+26
Tallahassee 54-45 Biden D+3
Gainesville 54-44 Trump R+7
Clay 72-27 Trump R+25
Jacksonville North 59-39 Biden D+8
Jacksonville South 55-44 Trump R+9
St. Augustine 63-36 Trump R+16
Ocala 64-35 Trump R+17

Orlando and environs:
Orlando East 60-38 Biden D+11
Orlando West 56-43 Biden D+5
Orlando Central 67-32 Biden D+16
Seminole 51-48 Biden R+1
Volusia 56-42 Trump R+8
Brevard 59-40 Trump R+12
Lake-DeLand 59-40 Trump R+12
Osceola 54-45 Biden D+4
Winter Haven 55-43 Trump R+8

Tampa and environs:
Lakeland 58-41 Trump R+10
Spring Hill 63-36 Trump R+15
Pinellas South 53-45 Biden D+2
Pinellas North 53-45 Trump R+6
Hillsborough West 59-40 Biden D+9
Hillsborough North 51-48 Biden EVEN
Hillsborough South 49.5-49.1 Trump R+3

North and/or east of Broward, south of Brevard:
Okechobee 63-37 Trump R+14
Sarasota 59-40 Trump R+12*
Cape Coral 60-40 Trump R+12
Naples 62-37 Trump R+15
Manatee 55-44 Trump R+7
Treasure Coast 54-45 Trump R+6
Jupiter 50-49 Biden EVEN
West Palm Beach 61-38 Biden D+12
Boca Raton 58-42 Biden D+7
*=named for the county of Sarasota, not the city; Sarasota city is actually almost entirely within the Manatee constituency, named for Manatee County

Miami-Dade+Broward
Broward West 73-26 Biden D+24
Broward North 61-39 Biden D+10
Broward Central 58-41 Biden D+8
Broward South-Miami Gardens 70-29 Biden D+22
Miami-Dade North 60-39 Biden D+14
Miami 59-40 Biden D+13
Miami-Dade West 61-39 Trump R+5
Miami-Dade South 51-48 Trump D+2
Key West-Cutler Ridge 52-47 Biden D+5

Population growth in the Sunshine State allows it to gain six members (going from 37 to 43), more or less equal to all states done thus far. No constituency in the state has been left unchanged. Three constituencies can be nested in Orange, Hillsborough, and Palm Beach counties. Two constituencies can be nested in Duval and Pinellas counties. All of Lake Okechobee is in either Okechobee or Jupiter. All in all, all major regions of the state gain at least one constituency.

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[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Florida in this parliamentary system would have 43 seats. Here's my try:
[snip*a great map*snip]
Opinions?

What does my map have that makes it be more Dem-friendly? It even has a median seat basically perfectly in line with the state as a whole.
Thanks for your guest contribution btw.

[_.]

Florida in this parliamentary system would have 43 seats. Here's my try:
[snip*a great map*snip]
Opinions?

What does my map have that makes it be more Dem-friendly? It even has a median seat basically perfectly in line with the state as a whole.
Thanks for your guest contribution btw.

I attempted to keep racial groups together is the simple explanation

This resulted in Black districts, Latino districts, a little bit of packing here and there
In balance this helps the Republican party due to the really intense Republican Latino districts in Miami-Dade numbering three (while on your map they only amount to one) and then the usual lack of Black voters being distilled throughout districts because they're all packed into one in order for minority representation (such as in Jacksonville, Orlando)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Florida in this parliamentary system would have 43 seats. Here's my try:
[snip*a great map*snip]
Opinions?

What does my map have that makes it be more Dem-friendly? It even has a median seat basically perfectly in line with the state as a whole.
Thanks for your guest contribution btw.

I attempted to keep racial groups together is the simple explanation

This resulted in Black districts, Latino districts, a little bit of packing here and there
In balance this helps the Republican party due to the really intense Republican Latino districts in Miami-Dade numbering three (while on your map they only amount to one) and then the usual lack of Black voters being distilled throughout districts because they're all packed into one in order for minority representation (such as in Jacksonville, Orlando)

That makes sense. It's a fascinating differentiation with my approach, which was to avoid packing minorities when possible and even sacrifice having a safe black seat in Miami-Dade for sake of avoiding packing Latinos (was hard to avoid in Miami-Dade though - cue the inevitable 85%+ Latino district that becomes dramatically likelier the smaller the districts get).

[Boss_Rahm]

Thanks for catching the error, will edit.

Thanks for doing this series, I've been enjoying it!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Thanks for catching the error, will edit.

Thanks for doing this series, I've been enjoying it!

You're welcome. Thanks for the kind words!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wayne County:
Monroe-Romulus 51-47 Trump R+4
Dearborn 63-36 Biden D+11
Detroit West-Livonia 74-25 Biden D+23
Detroit East 85-14 Biden D+35

SE Michigan:
Warren-Sterling Heights 51-48 Biden R+1
Oakland North 59-39 Trump R+14
Troy 64-34 Biden D+12
Pontiac 58-41 Biden D+6
Macomb North 62-37 Trump R+15
Ann Arbor 66-33 Biden D+15

W Michigan:
Grand Rapids 57-41 Biden D+4
Kalamazoo 52-46 Biden EVEN
Battle Creek 61-37 Trump R+14
Ottawa 58-41 Trump R+12
Allegan 62-36 Trump R+16

N Michigan+C Michigan:
Cadillac 60-39 Trump R+13
Mackinac 60-39 Trump R+13
Saginaw-The Thumb 57-41 Trump R+10
Flint 49.6-49 Biden R+1
Lansing 57-41 Biden D+6

All constituencies in Wayne County remain the same, but two of them are renamed due to one of them having more than half of them be in Detroit despite being named for a Detroit inner suburb. Livingston+Washtenaw now exceeds 10% over the quota, which forces them into separate constituencies. Ann Arbor is paired with Lenawee. The domino effect from this, and with Macomb being paired with St. Clair instead of Oakland, renders the rest of the map changed someway or another, with the exception of Lansing.

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[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Gary 57-42 Biden D+8
South Bend 53-45 Trump R+7
Valparaiso 60-38 Trump R+12
Warsaw 74-24 Trump R+28
Fort Wayne 58-40 Trump R+12
Muncie 64-34 Trump R+17
Carmel 54-44 Trump R+10
Indianapolis North 70-29 Biden D+18
Indianapolis South 57-41 Biden D+5
Bloomington 57-41 Trump R+11
Greenwood-Richmond 71-28 Trump R+25
Lafayette-Vigo 61-37 Trump R+15
Evansville-Wabash 65-33 Trump R+19
New Albany 66-32 Trump R+19

Indiana goes from 13 members to 14. Population growth leads to the redrawing of the lines around South Bend, with cascading effects in most of the rest of the state. A new constituency, named Greenwood-Richmond, is drawn, and two constituencies are nested in Marion. However, New Albany, Evansville-Wabash, Lafayette-Vigo and Gary remain unchanged.

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[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Paducah 70-26 Trump
Bowling Green 69-27 Trump
Somerset 81-16 Trump
Louisville East 51-44 Clinton
Louisville West-Fort Knox 48-47.7 Trump
Nicholasville 71-25 Trump
Lexington 47-46 Clinton
Ashland 70-27 Trump
Covington 64-30 Trump

Rural depopulation leads to the growth of rural constituencies and the shrinking of some urban and exurban ones. Lexington loses some counties. Nicholasville changes the most, taking Oldham County from Covington and going south, to the point it borders Tennessee.

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[President Punxsutawney Phil]

West Tennessee:
Memphis South 64-34 Biden D+12
Memphis North 56-43 Biden D+5
Jackson-Dyersburg 71-28 Trump R+23

Middle Tennessee:
Tennessee* 68-31 Trump R+21
Franklin 66-33 Trump R+20
Murfreesboro 60-34 Trump R+16
Nashville South 62-35 Biden D+11
Nashville North-Henderson 51-46 Trump R+5
Cookeville 77-22 Trump R+29
*=Named for the Tennessee River, which forms most of its western border.

East Tennessee:
Crossville 77-22 Trump R+30
Chattanooga 60-39 Trump R+14
Maryville 77-22 Trump R+31
Knoxville 57-42 Trump R+12
Johnson City 75-23 Trump R+29

The addition of a member (increasing the total from 13 to 14) makes it possible for each Grand Division to have constituencies nested solely within them. More generally, urban constituencies shrink in size. No constituency in the state is unchanged.

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[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Huntsville 57-41 Trump R+12
Florence 76-23 Trump R+29
Gadsden 78-20 Trump R+31
Birmingham 50-48 Biden R+2
Alabaster 76-23 Trump R+30
Tuscaloosa 57-42 Biden D+6
Auburn 68-30 Trump R+22
Montgomery 54-45 Biden D+3
Dothan-Daphne 75-24 Trump R+28
Mobile 56-43 Trump R+9

Districts move south, and the Dothan constituency shrinks. Birmingham is reworked partially due to population growth in its metropolitan area, with a new swing constituency created, that voted for Biden but has a R+ PVI. The Mobile district is the only one unchanged.

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[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Kenosha-Racine 53-46 Trump R+6
Milwaukee North 80-18 Biden D+30
Milwaukee South 57-41 Biden D+6
Waukesha 59-39 Trump R+13
Manitowoc 60-38 Trump R+14
Winnebago 55-43 Trump R+9
Green Bay 57-41 Trump R+11
Stevens Point 60-39 Trump R+12
Madison 77-22 Biden D+25
Dells-Janesville 52-46 Biden D+2
Eau Claire 52-46 Trump R+5
Superior-St. Croix 57-41 Trump R+10

Milwaukee North and South, Madison, and all three constituencies bordering Minnesota are the only ones that have changed. Madison shrank due to population growth, which in turn led to Monroe and Juneau counties being shed from the Janesville constituency. Eau Claire then, in turn, ceded Pierce County to Superior-St. Croix.

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[President Punxsutawney Phil]

2012/2016 PVIs. That is the most recent presidential election data DRA has for Mississippi.

North Delta-Southaven R+2
South Delta-Vicksburg EVEN
Gulf Coast R+23
Hattiesburg-Meridian R+13
Jackson R+1
Tupelo R+16

The map is exactly the same compared to the 2010s except for South Delta-Vicksburg taking Smith County from the Hattiesburg district in order to narrowly fit within the +/-10% deviation threshold. As such, four constituencies are completely unchanged.

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[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Cook County:
Chicago North West 85-14 Biden D+35
Chicago North East 76-22 Biden D+28
Chicago Central 88-11 Biden D+39
Chicago South West 81-18 Biden D+33
Chicago South East 88-11 Biden D+39
Thornton 74-25 Biden D+23
Worth-Palos 70-29 Biden D+21
Proviso 73-25 Biden D+24
Evanston 63-35 Biden D+14
Arlington Heights 62-36 Biden D+11
Schaumburg 57-41 Biden D+7

Collar Counties:
Aurora-Elgin 56-42 Biden D+5
Wheaton 59-39 Biden D+8
Naperville 60-38 Biden D+9
Joliet 49.15-49.09 Trump R+2
Lakeshore 64-34 Biden D+14
McHenry 50-48 Biden R+2

Outside of the state of Illinois:
Rockford 52-46 Trump R+5
Dekalb-Ottawa 53-45 Trump R+6
Peoria-Quad Cities 49.1-48.7 Biden R+2
Bloomington 57-40 Trump R+11
Springfield 60-38 Trump R+14
Champaign 53-45 Trump R+5
Granite City 63-35 Trump R+16
Effingham 75-24 Trump R+28
Belleville-Cairo 54-44 Trump R+7

All constituencies outside of DuPage, Cook, and Will counties are unchanged, and all constituencies within those counties has been changed. Population growth forced the creation of a constituency that crosses the DuPage-Cook border. Just as in the previous map, there are five constituencies entirely within the city of Chicago. Chicago's constituencies themselves were rearranged and now Palos-Worth is essentially half-Chicago, half-suburban.

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[President Punxsutawney Phil]

And with that, every state east of the Mississippi has been done.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Twin Cities Metro:
Minneapolis 85-13 Biden D+34
St. Paul 72-26 Biden D+21
Bloomington 62-36 Biden D+10
Dakota 54-43 Biden D+2
Brooklyn Park 58-40 Biden D+5
Woodbury 49.1-48.5 Trump R+4

Greater Minnesota:
Rochester 52-46 Trump R+6
Mankato 59-39 Trump R+13
St. Cloud 63-35 Trump R+17
Iron Range 54-44 Trump R+7
Morehead 63-35 Trump R+17

Dakota, Moorhead, and Ramsey are unchanged. Mankato being underpopulated forced a redoing of the MSP. As before, there are three districts within Hennepin, one of them wholly within it. Iron Range, another underpopulated district, took Chisago and Isanti counties from St. Cloud, and St. Cloud in turn took Kandiyohi and Meeker from Mankato. The Coon Rapids constituency had to lose the town of Coon Rapids, and so was renamed Woodbury, after the largest municipality within its new territory. To avoid a double county split of Anoka, Minneapolis lost the Anoka panhandle, and in turn picked up Robbinsdale. The panhandle was added to the territory of Hennepin, and since the constituency was no longer as Hennepin-centric (losing Hennepin territory to Bloomington and gaining Anoka territory from Coon Rapids and Minneapolis), it was instead named after Brooklyn Park, the largest municipality within the district's boundaries.

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[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Dubuque 50-48 Trump R+3
Davenport 53-45 Biden D+2
Waterloo-Ames 52-46 Trump R+5
Des Moines 55-43 Biden D+4
Council Bluffs 62-36 Trump R+15
Sioux City 67-31 Trump R+20

All constituencies remain the same except for Des Moines and Council Bluffs, which exchange three counties due to Des Moines being overpopulated. Dallas and Guthrie counties are removed from Des Moines, in return for Jasper County being removed from Council Bluffs.

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[President Punxsutawney Phil]

St. Louis City 82-16 Biden D+31
St. Louis North 58-40 Biden D+6
St. Louis South 52-47 Trump R+6
St. Francois 75-23 Trump R+28
St. Charles 61-38 Trump R+15
Jefferson City 78-21 Trump R+31
Springfield-Ozark 67-31 Trump R+22
Joplin 77-22 Trump R+30
Columbia 37-61 Trump R+15
St. Joseph 69-29 Trump R+23
Kansas City North 56-42 Biden D+4
Kansas City South 55-43 Biden D+3

All three St. Louis and both Kansas City constituencies remain the same, as does the Springfield one. St. Francois is underpopulated and takes Franklin County, while Jefferson City expands to the east and the west. Joplin now borders the Missouri river. Reflecting population growth in St. Charles County, St. Charles loses Callaway and Montgomery counties to the newly formed Columbia constituency to its west.

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