Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[CookieDamage]

Virginia: Roanoke College, Aug. 12-19, 512 likely voters (live caller poll)

Approve 32
Disapprove 53

Muh Purple Tossup State that isn't a Blue State yet!

[Dr. Arch]

Virginia: Roanoke College, Aug. 12-19, 512 likely voters (live caller poll)

Approve 32
Disapprove 53

Holy cheese crackers. I would expect those numbers from NJ 

[IceSpear]

Virginia: Roanoke College, Aug. 12-19, 512 likely voters (live caller poll)

Approve 32
Disapprove 53

Muh Purple Tossup State that isn't a Blue State yet!

Barbara Comstock would've won Kaine's seat easily.

[CookieDamage]

Virginia: Roanoke College, Aug. 12-19, 512 likely voters (live caller poll)

Approve 32
Disapprove 53

Muh Purple Tossup State that isn't a Blue State yet!

Barbara Comstock would've won Kaine's seat easily.

A Clinton Midterm would have Gillespie and Stewart winning handily.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Virginia: Roanoke College, Aug. 12-19, 512 likely voters (live caller poll)

Approve 32
Disapprove 53

Muh Purple Tossup State that isn't a Blue State yet!

Barbara Comstock would've won Kaine's seat easily.

A Clinton Midterm would have Gillespie and Stewart winning handily.

Gillespie would may have been winning narrowly, but Stewart would never win.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Pennsylvania: Marist/NBC News, Aug. 12-16, 713 registered voters

Approve 37 (strongly 25)
Disapprove 53 (strongly 42)

Casey +15, Wolf +14 in this poll

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Pennsylvania: Marist/NBC News, Aug. 12-16, 713 registered voters

Approve 37 (strongly 25)
Disapprove 53 (strongly 42)

Casey +15, Wolf +14 in this poll

Butbutbutbut I was told Barletta was gonna win just because something something.

[CookieDamage]

Virginia: Roanoke College, Aug. 12-19, 512 likely voters (live caller poll)

Approve 32
Disapprove 53

Muh Purple Tossup State that isn't a Blue State yet!

Barbara Comstock would've won Kaine's seat easily.

A Clinton Midterm would have Gillespie and Stewart winning handily.

Gillespie would may have been winning narrowly, but Stewart would never win.

But.  ..  ... #redwave

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Pennsylvania Crosstabs-

Philly Suburbs disapprove 63-30%

Northeast disapprove 47-41%

________________________

Whites disapprove 47-42%

Blacks disapprove 90-2%

________________________

18-29 year olds disapprove 66-25%

45 to 59 year olds disapprove 48-47%

60 or older disapprove 50-43%

________________________

Women disapprove 60-32%

Men approve 46-44%

________________________

White college grads disapprove 60-33%

________________________

Those living in then suburbs disapprove 60-34%

Those living in small towns disapprove 50-41%

[ON Progressive]

Why are Trumps numbers relatively strong in Western PA? I would’ve thought Pittsburgh and Erie would drag his numbers down there.

[pbrower2a]

Wow! I can't believe how quickly the polls are coming in. Maybe some pollsters wanted to calibrate themselves on the  weekend before the verdict on Paul Man O' Fraud. This weekend we will see the results of the legal problems of Paul Man O' Fraud and (even worse) Michael Cohen, former personal lawyer to Donald Trump (and he will be a former attorney due to the felony conviction which will disbar him).

Pennsylvania: Marist/NBC News, Aug. 12-16, 713 registered voters

Approve 37 (strongly 25)
Disapprove 53 (strongly 42)

Casey +15, Wolf +14 in this poll

   

I'd love to see the re-elect/do not re-elect numbers for Pennsylvania as I have for AZ, FL, MI, MN, OH, and WI (NH is a different pollster)... but Marist did not poll that. It would probably be horrid.

Virginia: Roanoke College, Aug. 12-19, 512 likely voters (live caller poll)

Approve 32
Disapprove 53

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 30
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue, but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 33
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected (AZ, FL, MI, MN, NH, OH, WI), or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise

100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue (but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 41-50* (perhaps as much as 41-57, depending upon interpretation)
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. The poll from Alabama is an  exit poll from the 2017 special election for a Senate seat.  

[Progressive Pessimist]

Virginia: Roanoke College, Aug. 12-19, 512 likely voters (live caller poll)

Approve 32
Disapprove 53

Holy cheese crackers. I would expect those numbers from NJ 

According to that last poll of New Jersey, his approval rating is actually worse in Virginia! Granted, his disapproval in New Jersey is almost ten points higher. Either way, statewide Virginia seems out of reach for Trump and the GOP.

[pbrower2a]

Why are Trumps numbers relatively strong in Western PA? I would’ve thought Pittsburgh and Erie would drag his numbers down there.

The not-so-urban part of western Pennsylvania is Appalachia, which has been an area of big gains for Republicans since the 1990s. As the coal seams get spent, the coal miners and their once-strong unions fade.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Pew Research American Trends Survey, July 30 - Aug. 12, 4581 adults (change from Feb. -- this is a semiannual survey)

Approve 40 (+2)
Disapprove 59 (-1)

Strongly approve 31 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 48 (nc)

[CookieDamage]

Pew Research American Trends Survey, July 30 - Aug. 12, 4581 adults (change from Feb. -- this is a semiannual survey)

Approve 40 (+2)
Disapprove 59 (-1)

Strongly approve 31 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 48 (nc)

Strongle disapprove almost a majority

[GeorgiaModerate]

AP/NORC, Aug. 16-20, 1055 adults (change from June)

Approve 38 (-3)
Disapprove 60 (+3)

Strongly approve 18 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+1)

[pbrower2a]

Pew Research American Trends Survey, July 30 - Aug. 12, 4581 adults (change from Feb. -- this is a semiannual survey)

Approve 40 (+2)
Disapprove 59 (-1)

Strongly approve 31 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 48 (nc)

Strongle disapprove almost a majority

That is a huge level of discontent -- nearly half of the public considers him profoundly offensive without an economic downturn or a military debacle.

AP/NORC, Aug. 16-20, 1055 adults (change from June)

Approve 38 (-3)
Disapprove 60 (+3)

Strongly approve 18 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+1)

At this point, a majority of Americans are political dissidents. It is hard to imagine any President reaching this level of unpopularity so early in his Presidency. Many who held their noses and voted for Trump now regret that they can smell what they voted for, 24 hours a day and seven days a week unless they have and use passports.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, Aug. 23-24, 1564 registered voters

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 55 (nc)

Strongly approve 22 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 42 (nc)

GCB: D 44 (-1), R 36 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

The 538 average currently has Trump at 41.5 / 53.6.  The disapproval number and the margin of 12.1 are the largest since April 30.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Pew Research American Trends Survey, July 30 - Aug. 12, 4581 adults (change from Feb. -- this is a semiannual survey)

Approve 40 (+2)
Disapprove 59 (-1)

Strongly approve 31 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 48 (nc)

Strongle disapprove almost a majority

That is a huge level of discontent -- nearly half of the public considers him profoundly offensive without an economic downturn or a military debacle.

AP/NORC, Aug. 16-20, 1055 adults (change from June)

Approve 38 (-3)
Disapprove 60 (+3)

Strongly approve 18 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+1)

At this point, a majority of Americans are political dissidents. It is hard to imagine any President reaching this level of unpopularity so early in his Presidency. Many who held their noses and voted for Trump now regret that they can smell what they voted for, 24 hours a day and seven days a week unless they have and use passports.

I hope so. If Trump loses his soft support, he's done. I still worry that he could coast on low expectations or by denigrating his eventual 2020 opponent enough, though.

[Inmate Trump]

Pew Research American Trends Survey, July 30 - Aug. 12, 4581 adults (change from Feb. -- this is a semiannual survey)

Approve 40 (+2)
Disapprove 59 (-1)

Strongly approve 31 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 48 (nc)

Strongle disapprove almost a majority

That is a huge level of discontent -- nearly half of the public considers him profoundly offensive without an economic downturn or a military debacle.

AP/NORC, Aug. 16-20, 1055 adults (change from June)

Approve 38 (-3)
Disapprove 60 (+3)

Strongly approve 18 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+1)

At this point, a majority of Americans are political dissidents. It is hard to imagine any President reaching this level of unpopularity so early in his Presidency. Many who held their noses and voted for Trump now regret that they can smell what they voted for, 24 hours a day and seven days a week unless they have and use passports.

I hope so. If Trump loses his soft support, he's done. I still worry that he could coast on low expectations or by denigrating his eventual 2020 opponent enough, though.

I worry about the help he will receive from Russia.  Depending on the closeness of the vote, Russian interference on behalf of Trump could certainly have an impact again.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Pew Research American Trends Survey, July 30 - Aug. 12, 4581 adults (change from Feb. -- this is a semiannual survey)

Approve 40 (+2)
Disapprove 59 (-1)

Strongly approve 31 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 48 (nc)

Strongle disapprove almost a majority

That is a huge level of discontent -- nearly half of the public considers him profoundly offensive without an economic downturn or a military debacle.

AP/NORC, Aug. 16-20, 1055 adults (change from June)

Approve 38 (-3)
Disapprove 60 (+3)

Strongly approve 18 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+1)

At this point, a majority of Americans are political dissidents. It is hard to imagine any President reaching this level of unpopularity so early in his Presidency. Many who held their noses and voted for Trump now regret that they can smell what they voted for, 24 hours a day and seven days a week unless they have and use passports.

I hope so. If Trump loses his soft support, he's done. I still worry that he could coast on low expectations or by denigrating his eventual 2020 opponent enough, though.

I worry about the help he will receive from Russia.  Depending on the closeness of the vote, Russian interference on behalf of Trump could certainly have an impact again.

That goes without saying. But the Russian dissemination of fake news and manipulation wouldn't be able to work if people weren't still willing to give Trump a pass. That's the real problem.

[Inmate Trump]

Pew Research American Trends Survey, July 30 - Aug. 12, 4581 adults (change from Feb. -- this is a semiannual survey)

Approve 40 (+2)
Disapprove 59 (-1)

Strongly approve 31 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 48 (nc)

Strongle disapprove almost a majority

That is a huge level of discontent -- nearly half of the public considers him profoundly offensive without an economic downturn or a military debacle.

AP/NORC, Aug. 16-20, 1055 adults (change from June)

Approve 38 (-3)
Disapprove 60 (+3)

Strongly approve 18 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+1)

At this point, a majority of Americans are political dissidents. It is hard to imagine any President reaching this level of unpopularity so early in his Presidency. Many who held their noses and voted for Trump now regret that they can smell what they voted for, 24 hours a day and seven days a week unless they have and use passports.

I hope so. If Trump loses his soft support, he's done. I still worry that he could coast on low expectations or by denigrating his eventual 2020 opponent enough, though.

I worry about the help he will receive from Russia.  Depending on the closeness of the vote, Russian interference on behalf of Trump could certainly have an impact again.

That goes without saying. But the Russian dissemination of fake news and manipulation wouldn't be able to work if people weren't still willing to give Trump a pass. That's the real problem.

True.  However, with the ever increasing insecurities of many state’s voting machines (due solely to Republican ineffectuality), I’m concerned that Russia’s role in 2020 will be far more impactful than in 2016.

[Virginiá]

True.  However, with the ever increasing insecurities of many state’s voting machines (due solely to Republican ineffectuality), I’m concerned that Russia’s role in 2020 will be far more impactful than in 2016.

At least this time everyone is aware of what is going on and tech companies are working to fight disinformation/meddling campaigns. There is an immense amount of pressure on them from the left, and they seem to be responding to that. Also, while I guess it's too much to ask of the Trump administration to even sign a relatively neutral election security bill (something that should be non-partisan), if Democrats flip the House and/or Senate this cycle, they might be able to force some sort of compromise legislation that would help lock down 2020's election, at least partly. Finally, newly-empowered Democratic state lawmakers/Governors can also move to secure their own networks and voting machines in the run up to 2020.

So things are happening, it's just lacking in many ways because of a federal government that actually seems to be welcoming foreign powers in what I imagine is an effort to prop up Trump's reelection bid. Either that, or this is entirely because Trump believes any acknowledgement that the elections need to be secured is somehow tactic admission that his 2016 win might not be legitimate, so he refuses to do any of it. Probably a combination of both, actually.

The next sane president we get is going to have a lot of work to do to get Russia out of our affairs. I just hope it is someone who is willing to actually do what is necessary.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nevada: PPP, Aug. 20-21, 529 registered voters

Approve: 43
Disapprove: 53