Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[GeorgiaModerate]

ARG monthly economic survey, Aug. 17-20, 1100 adults

Approve 36 (-1)
Disapprove 59 (+2)

This is Trump's worst showing in this poll since February (36/60).

[libertpaulian]

ARG monthly economic survey, Aug. 17-20, 1100 adults

Approve 36 (-1)
Disapprove 59 (+2)

This is Trump's worst showing in this poll since February (36/60).

...and this is BEFORE Co-hunter-fort.

[KingSweden]

ARG monthly economic survey, Aug. 17-20, 1100 adults

Approve 36 (-1)
Disapprove 59 (+2)

This is Trump's worst showing in this poll since February (36/60).

AAAAARRRRRGGGG

[Gass3268]

Suffolk-MN:

40% Approve
54% Disapprove

Source

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, Aug. 16-18, 1974 registered voters

Approve 42 (-2)
Disapprove 54 (+2)

Strongly approve 22 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+3)

GCB: D 45 (+3), R 36 (-2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, Aug. 19-21, 1500 adults including 1247 registered voters

Among adults:

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 49 (nc)

Strongly approve 21 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 37 (-2)

Among RV:

Approve 44 (-2)
Disapprove 52 (+2)

Strongly approve 26 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+1)

GCB (RV only): D 44 (nc), R 38 (-2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

New Jersey: Quinnipiac, Aug. 15-20, 908 registered voters (live caller poll)

Approve 33
Disapprove 63

Worth noting: Menendez only leads the Senate race 43-37 in this poll.

[Gass3268]

New Jersey: Quinnipiac, Aug. 15-20, 908 registered voters (live caller poll)

Approve 33
Disapprove 63

Worth noting: Menendez only leads the Senate race 43-37 in this poll.

Those are the type of numbers that result in a 11-1 Democratic congressional deleagtion.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Florida: FAU, Aug. 16-20, 800 likely voters

Approve 43
Disapprove 45


Minnesota: Suffolk, Aug. 17-20, 500 likely voters

Approve 40
Disapprove 54

[pbrower2a]

ARG monthly economic survey, Aug. 17-20, 1100 adults

Approve 36 (-1)
Disapprove 59 (+2)

This is Trump's worst showing in this poll since February (36/60).

...and this is BEFORE Co-hunter-fort.

Convictions of Cohen and Man O' Fraud  will little affect the polling of the President. He us at the point at which people who still support him are highly fanatical in their support. The sorts of people who voted for Trump and do not yet consider him a mistake are now small in number. I expect national polling numbers to revert to something near the all-time laws of 2018 and not get lower.

Many people admire rogues for getting away with what they do. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Texas: Marist/NBC News, Aug. 12-16, 970 adults including 759 registered voters

Among adults:

Approve 43 (strongly 30)
Disapprove 46 (strongly 36)

Among RV:

Approve 47 (strongly 33)
Disapprove 45 (strongly 36)

GCB (RV only): R 46, D 43

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fox News, Aug. 19-21, 1009 registered voters (change from last month)
https://www.scribd.com/document/386839782/Fox-August-2018-Naitonal-Topline-August-22-Release

(Note the typo in the page title and URL: "Naitonal" instead of "National"!)

Approve 45 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (+2)

Strongly approve 25 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+3)

GCB: D 49 (+1), R 38 (-2)

[Progressive Pessimist]

New Jersey: Quinnipiac, Aug. 15-20, 908 registered voters (live caller poll)

Approve 33
Disapprove 63

Worth noting: Menendez only leads the Senate race 43-37 in this poll.

Those are the type of numbers that result in a 11-1 Democratic congressional deleagtion.

Please let it be so!

As for Menendez, this poll confirms my suspicions that he will win, but by a pretty embarrassing margin.

[Hammy]

Texas: Marist/NBC News, Aug. 12-16, 970 adults including 759 registered voters

Among adults:

Approve 43 (strongly 30)
Disapprove 46 (strongly 36)

Among RV:

Approve 47 (strongly 33)
Disapprove 45 (strongly 36)

GCB (RV only): R 46, D 43

Wow, those are awful support numbers for Texas.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wisconsin: Marquette Law, Aug. 15-19, 739 registered voters

Approve 45 (strongly 29)
Disapprove 51 (strongly 43)

[CookieDamage]

Wisconsin: Marquette Law, Aug. 15-19, 739 registered voters

Approve 45 (strongly 29)
Disapprove 51 (strongly 43)

#RedWave

[pbrower2a]

https://poll.qu.edu/connecticut/release-detail?ReleaseID=2564

Trump approval underwater 30-67.

Suffolk-MN:

40% Approve
54% Disapprove

Source

Texas: Marist/NBC News, Aug. 12-16, 970 adults including 759 registered voters

Among adults:

Approve 43 (strongly 30)
Disapprove 46 (strongly 36)

Among RV:

Approve 47 (strongly 33)
Disapprove 45 (strongly 36)

GCB (RV only): R 46, D 43

I'm using registered voters. One must register to vote.  People newly registering to vote in Texas  in the next two years will lean strongly D, I predict, so Texas is still trouble. for Trump  

Wisconsin: Marquette Law, Aug. 15-19, 739 registered voters

Approve 45 (strongly 29)
Disapprove 51 (strongly 43)

    

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 39
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue, but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 33
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected (AZ, FL, MI, MN, NH, OH, WI), or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise

100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue (but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 41-50* (perhaps as much as 41-57, depending upon interpretation)
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. The poll from Alabama is an  exit poll from the 2017 special election for a Senate seat.  

[Brittain33]

Wisconsin: Marquette Law, Aug. 15-19, 739 registered voters

Approve 45 (strongly 29)
Disapprove 51 (strongly 43)

#RedWave

Senate and Governor races showed very close on this too, I think. Looks like an outlier given the special elections there.

[pbrower2a]

Wisconsin: Marquette Law, Aug. 15-19, 739 registered voters

Approve 45 (strongly 29)
Disapprove 51 (strongly 43)

#RedWave

Senate and Governor races showed very close on this too, I think. Looks like an outlier given the special elections there.

In 2016 the Republicans tried to grind down Democrats. I expect them to try exactly the same thing in 2018 because it worked well in 2016 -- and they really have nothing else.  They need Scott Walker as Governor if they are to have any reasonable chance of winning the state in the Presidential election of 2020.

The Trump victory began to emerge with such 'outliers'. Republicans will use threats such as "vote Democratic and get a recession" to get people to vote for Trump colleagues. 

[CookieDamage]

Wisconsin: Marquette Law, Aug. 15-19, 739 registered voters

Approve 45 (strongly 29)
Disapprove 51 (strongly 43)

#RedWave

Senate and Governor races showed very close on this too, I think. Looks like an outlier given the special elections there.

Agreed.

[pbrower2a]

https://poll.qu.edu/connecticut/release-detail?ReleaseID=2564

Lamont (D) - 46
Stefanowski (R) - 33

Head-to-head, Lamont leads Stefanowski 53-37.

Malloy approval underwater 25-67.

Trump approval underwater 30-67.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Think we'll see a huge Mollie Tibbets bounce for Trump over the next few weeks?

[pbrower2a]

Think we'll see a huge Mollie Tibbets bounce for Trump over the next few weeks?

FoX News covered that story heavily while other news media were covering the conviction of Paul Man O' Fraud and the guilty plea of Michael Cohen.

[GeorgiaModerate]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, Aug. 16-22, 15141 adults including 13260 registered voters

Among all adults:

Approve 44 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (+2)

Strongly approve 26 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+2)

Among RV:

Approve 44 (-3)
Disapprove 55 (+3)

Strongly approve 29 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Virginia: Roanoke College, Aug. 12-19, 512 likely voters (live caller poll)

Approve 32
Disapprove 53