Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[KingSweden]

FWIW I suspect that Trafalgar poll is hot garbage so let’s not get all worked up over it mmkay

[henster]

Rass tweeting out daily #'s of Trump supposed black JA which they say is 36%, amazingly Trump only manages a 49% approval rating overall with numbers like that. I'm starting to think we may have another Research 2000 situation.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Rass tweeting out daily #'s of Trump supposed black JA which they say is 36%, amazingly Trump only manages a 49% approval rating overall with numbers like that. I'm starting to think we may have another Research 2000 situation.

If Trump's approval amongst blacks is 36%, his JA would be WAY above 49%... which means their black sample is very small

[BudgieForce]

Rass tweeting out daily #'s of Trump supposed black JA which they say is 36%, amazingly Trump only manages a 49% approval rating overall with numbers like that. I'm starting to think we may have another Research 2000 situation.

Rasmussen knows what it's doing. I'm not entirely sure what their end game is though. These favorable Trump numbers haven't caused contributions to increase for their GoFundMe and they havent released anything outside of their tracker in a very long time. I cant imagine a daily tracker is all that profitable to begin with and it doesn't look like anyone has been hiring them to poll for the midterms.

I dont want to accuse Rasmussen of making up numbers like Research 2000 but Its not out of the realm of possibility.

[Hammy]

Rass tweeting out daily #'s of Trump supposed black JA which they say is 36%, amazingly Trump only manages a 49% approval rating overall with numbers like that. I'm starting to think we may have another Research 2000 situation.

If Trump's approval amongst blacks is 36%, his JA would be WAY above 49%... which means their black sample is very small

Wouldn't surprise me at all if their sample consisted of three people or something.

[Sir Mohamed]

LOL, the orange clown claims his approval rating is 36% among African Americans according to Trashy Rassy:

https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1029749433129492480

[Mr. Morden]

Trump's job approval is now a few tenths of a percentage point ahead of Reagan's at this point in his presidency:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

job approval at this point in presidency:

Trump 41.4%
Reagan 41.1%
Carter 39.0%

Now he's ahead of Clinton at this point in his presidency too:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

job approval at this point in presidency:

Trump 42.1%
Clinton 41.8%
Reagan 40.9%
Carter 39.9%

[KingSweden]

Trump's job approval is now a few tenths of a percentage point ahead of Reagan's at this point in his presidency:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

job approval at this point in presidency:

Trump 41.4%
Reagan 41.1%
Carter 39.0%

Now he's ahead of Clinton at this point in his presidency too:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=297289.150

job approval at this point in presidency:

Trump 42.1%
Clinton 41.8%
Reagan 40.9%
Carter 39.9%

We’re much more polarized/tribal than we were back then

[Dr. Arch]

Trump's job approval is now a few tenths of a percentage point ahead of Reagan's at this point in his presidency:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

job approval at this point in presidency:

Trump 41.4%
Reagan 41.1%
Carter 39.0%

Now he's ahead of Clinton at this point in his presidency too:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=297289.150

job approval at this point in presidency:

Trump 42.1%
Clinton 41.8%
Reagan 40.9%
Carter 39.9%

We’re much more polarized/tribal than we were back then

Don't forget poll quality/consistency has gone down quite a bit too.

[KingSweden]

Trump's job approval is now a few tenths of a percentage point ahead of Reagan's at this point in his presidency:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

job approval at this point in presidency:

Trump 41.4%
Reagan 41.1%
Carter 39.0%

Now he's ahead of Clinton at this point in his presidency too:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=297289.150

job approval at this point in presidency:

Trump 42.1%
Clinton 41.8%
Reagan 40.9%
Carter 39.9%

We’re much more polarized/tribal than we were back then

Don't forget poll quality/consistency has gone down quite a bit too.

Eh I’m not gonna play that game. Too close to unskewing. I’ll take the averages at face value (save for RCP).

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think the key difference between Trump and previous presidents is the intensity of disapproval among those who don't like him.  It would be interesting to compare strong approval/disapproval as well as overall approval/disapproval.

[pbrower2a]

I think the key difference between Trump and previous presidents is the intensity of disapproval among those who don't like him.  It would be interesting to compare strong approval/disapproval as well as overall approval/disapproval.

President Trump has been adept so far in insuring that the people who hate his new policies are the ones who hated his earlier policies. There has never been a President since Lincoln who has inspired so much and such widespread, visceral hatred as he has. With Lincoln it was at least on behalf of abolishing slavery. With Trump it is all about enriching, pampering, and enforcing the will of economic elites at the expense of all else.

There are polls that give "strong" approval and disapproval. Occasionally I have seen polls with letter grades (A, B, C, D, F) that have similar suggestions.

[Hollywood756]

I'd also like to see more detail on his net undecideds.

but, to add this to the water, the dude LOVES being intellectually dishonest about his numbers. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/08/17/no-one-third-of-african-americans-dont-support-trump-not-even-close/?utm_term=.9956ece35afe

[twenty42]

Trump's job approval is now a few tenths of a percentage point ahead of Reagan's at this point in his presidency:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

job approval at this point in presidency:

Trump 41.4%
Reagan 41.1%
Carter 39.0%

Now he's ahead of Clinton at this point in his presidency too:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

job approval at this point in presidency:

Trump 42.1%
Clinton 41.8%
Reagan 40.9%
Carter 39.9%

Let’s all take a moment to remember the landslides Mondale and Dole won...

[The Mikado]

Note how much lower No Opinion is with Trump. His Approval Minus Disapproval is a better comparison.

[Person Man]

Note how much lower No Opinion is with Trump. His Approval Minus Disapproval is a better comparison.

And his net approvals are still the furthest underwater. Also the fact that he has never been above water outside of his two weeks' honeymoon should be telling. Maybe Trump does pretty well in 2020, but Clinton, Reagan, and Obama all had horrible midterms. And then there was Carter who had an OK one only to get blasted in the ass in 1980.

[Inmate Trump]

Note how much lower No Opinion is with Trump. His Approval Minus Disapproval is a better comparison.

And his net approvals are still the furthest underwater. Also the fact that he has never been above water outside of his two weeks' honeymoon should be telling. Maybe Trump does pretty well in 2020, but Clinton, Reagan, and Obama all had horrible midterms. And then there was Carter who had an OK one only to get blasted in the ass in 1980.

None of those men were traitors willing to commit treason in order to win elections; Trump is.

[pbrower2a]

Michigan: favorability poll from "Strategic National":

Do you have a favorable opinion of Donald Trump?

Very favorable 32%
Somewhat Favorable 11%
no opinion 6%
Somewhat Unfavorable 10%
Very Unfavorable 42%

(I do not put favorability races on my map)

Gubernatorial race: Whitmer (D) 45% Schuette (R ) 36%
Senatorial race: Stabenow (D) 50% James (R ) 35%


http://strategicnational.com/michigan-statewide-general-election-poll/

[GeorgiaModerate]

New Hampshire: Praecones Analytica for the NH Journal.  Aug. 13-15, 626 registered voters (landline IVR + online)

Approve: 41
Disapprove: 54

GCB: D 44, R 41

If the 2020 presidential election were held today, how likely would you be to vote to re-elect Donald Trump?

Very likely 36
Somewhat likely 5
Somewhat unlikely 7
Not at all likely 50

[Virginiá]

New Hampshire: Praecones Analytica for the NH Journal.  Aug. 13-15, 626 registered voters (landline IVR + online)

Approve: 41
Disapprove: 54

GCB: D 44, R 41

If the 2020 presidential election were held today, how likely would you be to vote to re-elect Donald Trump?

Very likely 36
Somewhat likely 5
Somewhat unlikely 7
Not at all likely 50

I know it's never a good mindset to just assume the next election is a given, but I'm finding it difficult to see how Trump wins 2020 if he keeps getting polls like this. Not only has he permanently alienated basically everyone who didn't vote for him, which is already more than enough to lose by a 2008-level margin, but he's also been shaving a few points off his original base of support, which would bring him closer to double digit loss territory.

[The Mikado]

New Hampshire: Praecones Analytica for the NH Journal.  Aug. 13-15, 626 registered voters (landline IVR + online)

Approve: 41
Disapprove: 54

GCB: D 44, R 41

If the 2020 presidential election were held today, how likely would you be to vote to re-elect Donald Trump?

Very likely 36
Somewhat likely 5
Somewhat unlikely 7
Not at all likely 50

I know it's never a good mindset to just assume the next election is a given, but I'm finding it difficult to see how Trump wins 2020 if he keeps getting polls like this. Not only has he permanently alienated basically everyone who didn't vote for him, which is already more than enough to lose by a 2008-level margin, but he's also been shaving a few points off his original base of support, which would bring him closer to double digit loss territory.

Trump's strategy basically has to rely on holding FL and PA, two states that have been critical swing states for decades. As much is novel about Trump, that hasn't changed.

If Trump carries both, race is Likely R bordering on safe. If he carries one, it's Lean D. If he loses both, it's Likely D bordering on Safe.

[Beet]

New Hampshire: Praecones Analytica for the NH Journal.  Aug. 13-15, 626 registered voters (landline IVR + online)

Approve: 41
Disapprove: 54

GCB: D 44, R 41

If the 2020 presidential election were held today, how likely would you be to vote to re-elect Donald Trump?

Very likely 36
Somewhat likely 5
Somewhat unlikely 7
Not at all likely 50

I know it's never a good mindset to just assume the next election is a given, but I'm finding it difficult to see how Trump wins 2020 if he keeps getting polls like this. Not only has he permanently alienated basically everyone who didn't vote for him, which is already more than enough to lose by a 2008-level margin, but he's also been shaving a few points off his original base of support, which would bring him closer to double digit loss territory.

He actually has higher favorables than he did on election night 2016, when he was in the 30s. The key is (1) timing is everything. We saw that when the Comey Letter was released 11 days before election day. A poll over 2 years out says nothing. If he gets a poll like this 2 days out, then yeah, he's in trouble. But there's a big difference between a year and a day. (2) He will be running against an actual opponent. An election is not a referendum on Trump but a choice between two people. Of course it's easy to say you're dissatisfied with him because in your mind, you've got the image of a perfect, ideal leader who doesn't exist. They don't exist because in everyone's mind, that perfect, ideal leader is different. But it's not until that ideality manifests itself that this becomes apparent.

[pbrower2a]

New Hampshire: Praecones Analytica for the NH Journal.  Aug. 13-15, 626 registered voters (landline IVR + online)

Approve: 41
Disapprove: 54

GCB: D 44, R 41

If the 2020 presidential election were held today, how likely would you be to vote to re-elect Donald Trump?

Very likely 36
Somewhat likely 5
Somewhat unlikely 7
Not at all likely 50

I know it's never a good mindset to just assume the next election is a given, but I'm finding it difficult to see how Trump wins 2020 if he keeps getting polls like this. Not only has he permanently alienated basically everyone who didn't vote for him, which is already more than enough to lose by a 2008-level margin, but he's also been shaving a few points off his original base of support, which would bring him closer to double digit loss territory.

He actually has higher favorables than he did on election night 2016, when he was in the 30s. The key is (1) timing is everything. We saw that when the Comey Letter was released 11 days before election day. A poll over 2 years out says nothing. If he gets a poll like this 2 days out, then yeah, he's in trouble. But there's a big difference between a year and a day. (2) He will be running against an actual opponent. An election is not a referendum on Trump but a choice between two people. Of course it's easy to say you're dissatisfied with him because in your mind, you've got the image of a perfect, ideal leader who doesn't exist. They don't exist because in everyone's mind, that perfect, ideal leader is different. But it's not until that ideality manifests itself that this becomes apparent.

The typical response to a bad poll for any politician on the wrong side of that poll is something like "the only poll that counts is the election result". True. But at this point the current President is doing little that can get himself re-elected. His inadequacies and his disconnect from the electorate is severe.

What part of "I will definitely not vote for him" can be interpreted as "but I will vote for him in 2020"?

He will need miracles at this stage for getting re-elected. Sure, he got elected once, but the polls suggest a bitter disappointment. So what can he do to get re-elected?

1. He can have an international crisis that goes well for him. I doubt that. Democrats are going to fault him for the pretext, and there will be protests of any unjust war. America's usual allies are much less likely to support a President that most world leaders recognize as a liar and provocateur. This President has a poor relationship with the Armed Forces.

2. He can have a spectacular boom by spurring investment in a bubble -- but where? Housing? Dubya sponsored such a boom, and look what that did. He tried infrastructure, but his first effort was to use the Treasury to sweeten deals for privatization. Nobody wants new tolls on old roads except those who collect the tolls.

3. He can somehow change the cultural climate to better fit his ideology.  Well, name a President successful at that! To be sure, America took a sharp turn to the Right between the late 1970s and the mid-1980s, much of it the result of the rise of the Religious Right. If there is any tendency in changes of moral values it is on firearms, economic equity, and the environment... and that is bringing Americans closer to Pope Francis than to Jerry Falwell. Donald Trump is a godless man, and he is the wrong person to ride any religious trend.

Before you say "Lincoln" -- the Civil War made Northerners hostile to slavery. FDR? He found solutions, often brilliant, and there were never any clearer villains of history than the gangsters who then ruled Germany, Italy, and Japan.

4. The Democrats can nominate someone so flawed that he or she can make Donald Trump look good by contrast. ...Who? Someone now in prison? Bernie Madoff? Phillip Gallardo (kidnapper and rapist of a girl)? Scott Peterson? Someone part of the Manson family? The spy  Aldrich Ames? Drug-lord Larry Hoover?

OK, I am going overboard on that.

5. He can cheat. That might be more effective than anything else. Unlike the first three, it is consistent with his character.

[Virginiá]

He actually has higher favorables than he did on election night 2016, when he was in the 30s. The key is (1) timing is everything. We saw that when the Comey Letter was released 11 days before election day. A poll over 2 years out says nothing. If he gets a poll like this 2 days out, then yeah, he's in trouble. But there's a big difference between a year and a day. (2) He will be running against an actual opponent. An election is not a referendum on Trump but a choice between two people. Of course it's easy to say you're dissatisfied with him because in your mind, you've got the image of a perfect, ideal leader who doesn't exist. They don't exist because in everyone's mind, that perfect, ideal leader is different. But it's not until that ideality manifests itself that this becomes apparent.

Well that was the point of why I said "if he keeps getting polls like these." His favorables are higher, but they don't need to be in the 30s for him to get the same or even less votes. All it means is that some of the people who didn't like him but voted for him anyway are now saying they like him. And yes, of course the candidate matters. I think Democrats have a handful of people who could beat him as it stands now, but no idea if they'd be the nominees (and consensus on these people is hardly universal either).

[BlueSwan]

What part of "I will definitely not vote for him" can be interpreted as "but I will vote for him in 2020"?

Easy to overinterpret.

a) These people might stay at home.
b) These people might end up hating the democratic candidate even more.
c) These people might vote third party or write-in a candidate.
d) Voter suppression.
e) Last minute partisan come-together.
f) A LOT of people actually said they would never vote for Trump in 2016, but still ended up doing so.

I'm not saying that Trump is winning. He really shouldn't be winning with numbers like these, especially not if the democratic candidate is someone electable. But complacency/overconfidence remains the democrats worst enemy. In 2016, democrats on this forum and elsewhere were all too happy to proclaim the race all over after Khan/McCain/Kovaleski/Kelly/Pussygate. That complacency alone cost us the election (hell, Comey probably wouldn't have sent the letter had he not been confident in Hillary winning). It shouldn't happen again.