OR-Gravis: Tied race

[Alabama_Indy10]

Buehler is a really good candidate but I still think Brown wins.

He’s the best R statewide candidate in a long time

Absolutely

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I sweating a bit now, Likely D--->Lean D.

[Pericles]

For crying out loud Atlas. Democrats aren't losing Oregon in 2018.

[henster]

lol Rob McKenna all over again.

[AtorBoltox]

i see you're not listening to torie, andrew

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

For crying out loud Atlas. Democrats aren't losing Oregon in 2018.

Dems can lose OR

[AtorBoltox]

For crying out loud Atlas. Democrats aren't losing Oregon in 2018.

Dems can lose OR

Just no. Not this year, not with these conditions.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes they can, ME, RI and CT have pragmatic GOPers tied or slightly ahead

[UncleSam]

This is a race that would flip during a neutral year. Brown is fairly uninspiring and Democrats are heavily dependent on Portland turnout to win, with how strong R the rest of the state is. And of course, Oregon has the demographic makeup of a state that Rs would typically be expected to win.

If the generic ballot is around D+8-10 on Election Day, however, none of that matters. Brown will skate by with a small win, and a moderate win if she runs a strong campaign.

[Free Bird]

That's it, I'm not looking at any more polls till October.

[mds32]

I am flipping Oregon to toss-up on my predictions.

There is too much in this poll that shows that the race is GOING to be a tossup. By a huge disparity voters think they are over-taxed for instance. That's not going to change too much if the sample went up to Clinton +9 or +10.

[Republican Left]

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What made the split so lethal for Oregon, other states have contested primaries as well? Also, what can the Oregon GOP do to win the long-run such as reach out to the Portland suburbs and build their base?

[brand_allen]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Oregon_July_20_2018.pdf

Trump approval 43-53
Clinton +6 sample

Kate Brown (D) - 45
Knute Buehler (R) - 45

Trouble for Democrats.

That Clinton +6 sample is only five points off from her actual advantage in the state (50-39%).

[Tender Branson]

That race already happened.

Back in 2012, when Brown ran against Bühler in the Sec. of State race.

She defeated him by 8 points.

Why would this change in 6 years to make it a tie ?

[OSR stands with Israel]

That race already happened.

Back in 2012, when Brown ran against Bühler in the Sec. of State race.

She defeated him by 8 points.

Why would this change in 6 years to make it a tie ?

Brown was an unknown then, and was not nearly as far to the left as she is now. Also since it was not a Gubernatorial race it barely got covered at all(by ads or the media) so it likely had far more partisan voting than a gubernatorial race does.

[OSR stands with Israel]

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What made the split so lethal for Oregon, other states have contested primaries as well? Also, what can the Oregon GOP do to win the long-run such as reach out to the Portland suburbs and build their base?

Third party runs by a right winger in 1990,2002 and 2010

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That race already happened.

Back in 2012, when Brown ran against Bühler in the Sec. of State race.

She defeated him by 8 points.

Why would this change in 6 years to make it a tie ?

Everyone thinks that Janet Mills and Kate Brown are shoe ins. As MD, MA and NJ have shown us, different states vote differently in Prez elections.  And Moody is not hard liner.  I predict CT, RI, ME or Or may flip.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Clinton, of course, won Oregon by 11 points.

Yeah but we all know how complacent and demoralized Democratic voters are this year. /s

[KingSweden]

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What made the split so lethal for Oregon, other states have contested primaries as well? Also, what can the Oregon GOP do to win the long-run such as reach out to the Portland suburbs and build their base?

Completely de-emphasize social issues

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Reminder this is the same pollster than had Menendez only up by 2

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

That race already happened.

Back in 2012, when Brown ran against Bühler in the Sec. of State race.

She defeated him by 8 points.

Why would this change in 6 years to make it a tie ?

Brown was an unknown then, and was not nearly as far to the left as she is now. Also since it was not a Gubernatorial race it barely got covered at all(by ads or the media) so it likely had far more partisan voting than a gubernatorial race does.

Brown tracking to the left in a year with a strong national anti-R tide isn't going to cost her any meaningful number of voters.

[OSR stands with Israel]

That race already happened.

Back in 2012, when Brown ran against Bühler in the Sec. of State race.

She defeated him by 8 points.

Why would this change in 6 years to make it a tie ?

Brown was an unknown then, and was not nearly as far to the left as she is now. Also since it was not a Gubernatorial race it barely got covered at all(by ads or the media) so it likely had far more partisan voting than a gubernatorial race does.

Brown tracking to the left in a year with a strong national anti-R tide isn't going to cost her any meaningful number of voters.

Its a Governors race not a Senate one.

[Canis]

Buhler is basically a democrat and a super strong candidate so if he wins its not the end of the world. If I lived in oregon I'd consider supporting him

[MT Treasurer]

would it help brown if tester campaigned for her?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Brown won fairly handily in 2016. She is probably in decent shape for re-election, even if it's by a smaller margin. I'm not too worried about this one.